Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Results. Tokens.com reported revenue of $303,217 compared to $326,320 in the prior year. Driven by a $2.6 million digital asset revaluation gain, operating income was $1.9 million compared to a loss of $3.2 million last year. Net income for the quarter was $1.7 million, or diluted EPS of $0.02, compared to $7.8 million, or $0.07. We estimated revenue of $115,000, operating loss of $482,000, and breakeven EPS.
Macro Environment. Tokens.com noted that the ETH Shapella upgrade showed an increase in staking activity, which results in lower yields but is countered with the increase in crypto prices over the last few months. We expect that staking revenue will remain volatile for Tokens.com’s ETH and DOT but will have increases quarter-over-quarter, assuming prices stay level or increase.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The “Who’s Who” of Tech and Finance Join Forces in Blockchain Collaboration
A new partnership between financial giants, tech behemoths, media monsters, and leaders in digitization just announced plans to launch what they call Canton. What is Canton? In a press release dated May 9, The Canton Network says it is “the industry’s first privacy-enabled interoperable blockchain network designed for institutional assets and built to responsibly unlock the potential of synchronized financial markets.” What does that mean? We’ll take it one piece at a time below.
The announcement describes the Canton Network as building toward being an interoperable blockchain with privacy features designed for the institutional asset management industry. It aims to allow “previously siloed” financial assets to be able to synchronize, making it possible to interconnect diverse financial markets.
The list of partners is a “Who’s Who” list of companies that are considered among the best in their individual specialties.
Canton Participants include, in alphabetical order:
3Homes, ASX, BNP Paribas, Broadridge, Capgemini, Cboe Global Markets, Cumberland, Deloitte, Deutsche Börse Group, Digital Asset, The Digital Dollar Project, DRW, Eleox, EquiLend, FinClear, Gambyl, Goldman Sachs, IntellectEU, Liberty City Ventures, Microsoft, Moody’s, Paxos, Right Pedal LendOS, S&P Global, SBI Digital Asset Holdings, Umbrage, Versana, VERT Capital, Xpansiv, and Zinnia.
The announcement proclaims that The Canton Network will provide “a decentralized infrastructure that connects independent applications built with Daml, Digital Asset’s smart-contract language.” The result will be “a ‘network of networks’, allowing previously siloed systems in financial markets to interoperate with the appropriate governance, privacy, permissioning and controls required for highly regulated industries.”
The Canton Network intends to enable financial institutions to experience a safer and reconciliation-free environment where assets, data, and cash can synchronize freely across applications. The end product will be opportunities for financial institutions to offer new innovative products to their clients while enhancing their efficiency and risk management.
An example provided by Canton is asset registers and cash payment systems which are distinct and siloed systems in today’s markets. With the new Canton Network, a digital bond and a digital payment can be composed across two separate applications into a single transaction, guaranteeing simultaneous exchange without operational risk. Similarly, a digital asset could be used in a collateralized financial transaction via connection to a repo or leveraged loan application.
Bloomberg calls the new venture “a collaborative effort that could be crucial to ledger technology in the finance market.” In addition, the group is striving to integrate “disparate institution applications,” which could have a positive impact on the entire industry.
The press release expalained that until Canton, smart contract blockchain networks have not achieved meaningful adoption among financial institutions and other enterprises because of three significant shortfalls:
The lack of privacy and control over data: other chains have shortcomings around privacy that prevent the use of the technology by multiple regulated participants on the same network. There are currently no other blockchains that can offer data protection or control at any layer of its network.
Other blockchains have had to accept trade-offs between control and interoperability: other chains require operators to forfeit their full control of applications by using a shared pool of validators to gain interoperability.
The inability to scale: with applications competing for global network resources and the inherent capacity limitations caused by how public blockchains operate, achieving the scale and performance financial institutions need remains challenging.
The Canton Network expects to remove these obstacles by balancing the decentralization of a network with the privacy and controls needed to operate within a sound regulatory environment.
The network expects to raise the bar on safety and soundness in blockchain financial interactions by enabling network users to safeguard permissions, exposure, and interactions across Canton, to comply with security, regulatory and legal requirements.
The network can connect innovative blockchain solutions in market today, such as Deutsche Börse Group’s D7 post-trade platform and Goldman Sachs’ GS DAP™, while retaining privacy and permissioning. As more Daml-built applications go into production this year and beyond, the number of connections on the Canton Network are expected to grow exponentially. For example, one application’s monthly notional traded exceeds the most active crypto token volumes.
Canton Network participants will begin testing interoperability capabilities across a range of applications and use cases in July.
The network will bring together blockchain applications built with Daml, the smart-contract language devised by Digital Asset. The team-up is the result of years of blockchain research and development by the tech and finance industry’s giants that are involved.
Why Companies Get a Fairness Opinion Before Entering a Financial Transaction
How important is a fairness opinion (FO) when a company is evaluating a merger, acquisition, spin-off, buyback, carve-out, or other corporate change of ownership? Part of the due diligence of a large financial transaction is to engage for a fee, an experienced expert to create a fairness opinion that, among other things, advises on the valuation of the proposed transaction. And possibly recommends adjusting some terms to align the transaction with what the expert sees as fair.
Understanding Fairness Opinions
When companies are considering impactful transactions, they may be required to get an objective opinion on whether the terms of the deal are fair. If it isn’t required, it is still a good idea to help reduce risks inherent in large transactions.
A fairness opinion is a professional assessment of the fairness of a proposed transaction. An independent third-party advisor, such as an investment bank, usually provides it. The goal of a fairness opinion is to provide an impartial evaluation of whether the transaction is fair to all parties involved based on various financial and strategic factors. The analysis involves evaluations of the impact of synergies, overall asset value, current market worth, dilutive effects, structure, and other attributes that a non-experienced executive may easily overlook.
Who Provides Fairness Opinions
Investment banks are the most common providers of fairness opinions. Choosing an institution that has extensive industry-specific experience and knowledge in valuing a transaction or strategic opportunity could save the client many times the cost of the service.
For example, Noble Capital Markets, an investment banking firm with 39 years of experience serving clients in a variety of industries, provides as one of its opinion services, FOs to companies considering a transaction. Francisco Penafiel, Managing Director and part of Noble’s investment banking & valuation practice, explained why getting an opinion from a reputable investment bank can avoid expensive problems. Mr. Penafiel said, “FO’s should be provided by independent third parties, but it’s highly recommended for companies to have the assistance of advisors with a sound reputation, credibility, and significant industry experience.”
Why should the advisor have an intimate understanding of the industry? Penafiel explained, “it’s also important for the advisors to have knowledge of the regulatory compliance factors that affect the process as well as to be fully independent to avoid any conflict of interests.” He believes most often, investment banking firms, with platforms that include many years of experience, are best suited to run analysis that is deep and thorough, and are necessary when rendering these opinions
“Noble has helped clients over the years with their valuations needs, we’re now witnessing an increased demand for FOs because of the benefits they bring to the companies involved in a transaction. It also goes a long way to demonstrate that management and boards fulfilled their fiduciary duties, reducing risks of litigation,” said Penafiel.
The SEC has shown that they approve of and, in some cases, could require an FO. Recent regulations applying to de-SPAC transactions make fairness opinions the standard as de-SPAC transactions have an inherent conflict of interest between a SPAC’s sponsor and the stockholders. The third-party FO provider allows for impartiality and transparency to benefit all parties, especially investors.
Steps in Creating an FO
To provide a fairness opinion, an investment bank will typically conduct a thorough analysis of the deal’s financial and strategic aspects. This analysis may involve evaluating the company’s financial statements, projecting future earnings, analyzing the transaction structure, and reviewing comparable transactions in the industry. The investment bank will also consider the prevailing market conditions, economic climate and the impact on interest rates and the effects of any regulatory or legal issues on the transaction.
After completing its analysis, the investment bank will issue a formal report summarizing its findings and conclusions. The report will typically contain a detailed explanation of the fairness opinion, including the methodology used, the assumptions made, and the supporting evidence. It will also provide a valuation of the company, which may be used as a reference point for negotiating the deal’s terms.
It’s worth noting that a fairness opinion is not a guarantee that the proposed transaction is fair. Rather, it’s a professional opinion based on the information available at the time of the analysis. The ultimate decision about whether to proceed with the transaction lies with the parties involved, who must consider various factors beyond the scope of the fairness opinion.
Take Away
Obtaining a fairness opinion is a critical step for companies considering major transactions. It provides an objective evaluation of the transaction’s fairness, which can help the parties involved make informed decisions. Investment banks are well-positioned to provide fairness opinions, given their extensive experience and expertise in financial analysis and valuation. By engaging an investment bank to provide a fairness opinion, companies can gain a valuable perspective on the proposed transaction, which can help them negotiate more effectively and ultimately achieve a better outcome.
Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
An Offer. Yesterday, Tokens.com announced an agreement with the Board of Directors of Metaverse Group to acquire all issued and outstanding shares that Tokens.com does not already own. Currently, the Company owns roughly 55.2% of Metaverse Group, or 50.2% on a diluted basis, and Tokens.com will issue 24.38 million common shares for the acquisition, if approved, equal to approximately USD$3.5 million as of yesterday’s closing price.
The Offer Continued. Each minority Metaverse Group shareholder will receive approximately 0.34 Tokens.com shares per Metaverse Group share. The offer is pending approval of Metaverse Group shareholders and a meeting will take place on April 26th, 2023, as well as approval by the NEO Exchange, and is expected to close in May 2023. We expect the offer will be approved by the shareholders and the exchange.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Elon Musk Announces New Financial Functionality on Twitter
Starting today, Twitter will provide tweeters the ability to buy and sell stocks and crypto on its platform via eTORO. Twitter owner, Elon Musk has been indicating he intends to turn the popular micro-blogging platform into a “super app.” Today’s move shows substantial headway in allowing financial transactions to be conducted on the social media platform. Other company goals since Musk’s purchase of the company include ride hailing, and attracting video influencers that may be disenchanted with YouTube restrictions on speech.
What Will the Twitter eTORO Partnership Provide?
Founded in 2007, eTORO has become one of the largest social investment networks and trading platforms. According to its website, it is “built on social collaboration and investor education: a community where users can connect, share, and learn.”
Twitter will partner with the platform to allow users (known as tweeters and Twitterers) to trade stocks and cryptocurrencies as part of a deal with the social investing company.
This partnership will provide access to view charts and trade stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other investment assets from eToro via its mobile platform. Together this significantly expands real-time trading data available to users who already have access on Twitter to real-time data, however this arrangement adds all the bells and whistles a modern trading app can provide.
Twitter will be expanding its use of cashtags as well. Twitter added pricing data for $Cashtags (company ticker preceded by “$”) in December 2022. Since January, there have been more than 420 million searches using Cashtags – the number of searches averages 4.7 million a day.
eToro CEO Yoni Assia told CNBC the deal will help better connect the two brands, adding that in recent years its users have increasingly turned to Twitter to “educate themselves about the markets.”
Assia said there is a great deal of “very high quality” content available in real-time and that the partnership with Twitter will help eToro expand to reach new audiences tapping this as a source of information.
Update on Elon
After Musk’s purchase of Twitter, many advertisers stepped back and watched to see how far the company would go to allow less moderated interaction. On Wednesday (April 12) Musk said that “almost all” advertisers had returned to the app. However, Stellantis and Volkswagen, two large competitors with Musk run Tesla, said they do not yet plan to resume advertising.
Musk told a Morgan Stanley conference last month he wants Twitter to become “the biggest financial institution in the world.” This begs those that follow Musk to ask, “Why stop there, why not include Mars?”
What Else
Be sure to follow Channelchek on Twitter (@channelchek) to stay up to date on market insights, news, videos, and of course, top-tier investment analyst research on small and microcap opportunities.
How Decision-Making and Market Impact is Shifting for Retail Investors
Retail investors’ preferences change over time. This impacts sector strength and the overall direction of markets. Even the methods of interacting with exchanges change as newer products like trading apps, artificial intelligence, and exchange-traded products (ETP) become available.
The influence retail has is growing, and anecdotally shifting preferences happen more quickly. Within this category, there are self-directed investors with different knowledge bases and at different stages of their lives. As people move through different stages, their concerns, outlooks, and risk tolerances adjust. Nasdaq just published its second annual survey of retail investors to measure how their interests are changing and what impact that may have. The survey of 2,000 investors from Gen Z to Baby Boomers uncovered some surprising trends in decision-making, fears, comfort zones, and asset class preferences.
Generational Groupings
There were a number of commonalities exposed by the Nasdaq survey between the different generations. They all listed their greatest concerns to be inflation and recession, but while the youngest (Gen Z, born 1997 – 2012) found housing and real estate a deep concern, the oldest group (Baby Boomers, born 1946 – 1964) are more concerned about tax rate changes. The generations in the middle (Gen X born 1965 –1980) and (Millennials born 1981 – 1996) show a greater concern over interest rate changes.
The survey question sought to understand how much time investors in each generation spent researching buy and sell investment decisions. Of Gen Z, on average 48% spent less than an hour, while 3% of these younger adults evaluated the transaction for at least a month. The next age category, Millennials, spent a bit more time on diligence. Only 28% would buy or sell with less than an hour of thought put into the transaction. Of this group, 4% took a month or longer to decide. This trend toward more time researching research continued as the survey reveals the Gen X greater propensity to spend more time evaluating before a purchase. Only 15% would press the buy or sell button with less than an hour spent understanding the investment – 7% of Gen X investors say they take a month or longer.
A big difference between the youngest and the oldest, is that among the Gen Z investors, although almost half said they spend fewer than 60 minutes researching, 0% said they did not research at all. Of the Baby Boomers surveyed, 24% indicated they spend no time researching before they buy or sell. It’s unclear if this is because the older group is less tech savvy, hires a professional to do the research, or believes they have the knowledge to move without digging deeper.
Overlap in Generational Preferences
Data Sources: Nasdaq
Other Trends
Despite their top concerns listed as recession and inflation, 71% of Gen Z and 50% of Millennials say they are investing more aggressively. This is in stark difference to the 9% of Boomers and 20% of Gen X describing their strategies as more aggressive than the previous year.
The influence of Twitter, Facebook and even TikTok keeps expanding. 73% of Gen Z use TikTok as a source for investment information. This is an 18% increase from the prior year. Baby boomer TikTok investment use rose by 16% to its current 25%.
The investment themes from year-to-year show ESG and crypto interest sinking, while robotics and other autonomous technology is where the focus has increased most. Younger investors are more active in their investments than before, and more frequently conducting their own research ahead of transacting. Investors of all ages are more likely to consider alternative options than they had before, these could include options, cryptocurrencies, exchange traded products, etc.
Competition among brokerage platforms is as fierce as it is in any innovative, tech heavy industry. The availability of advanced technology and commission-free trading have made investing more accessible, especially for the younger investors.
Take Away
The second annual survey conducted by Nasdaq indicates that the retail investor growth and power we’ve experienced in recent years was not a fad, it is growing and becoming more sophisticated. They are more influential and should be understood as they are here to stay. This is expected to continue to disrupt and influence markets dramatically.
As retail trends take a higher position of importance in defining the day-to-day challenges of investing and mapping the markets’ future, these self-directed investors are finding more services to accommodate them. One source is the Channelchek platform where retail and institutional investors, of all ages can review research reports, absorb video discussions with management of interesting opportunities, expand understanding through daily articles, and, if relevant, attend a roadshow to meet a particular company’s management.
With New Money Deposited Into Their IRA Accounts, Savers Are Faced With an Age-Old Question
With days until the IRS is expecting our tax filings, IRA season is in full swing. With this comes contributions to IRA accounts and individual investment decisions. This year economic uncertainty is a regular topic of conversation; the question has come up in both personal and professional conversations whether or not this money should be invested immediately or wait for a clearer sign of economic and market direction. I asked three financial professionals, each of whose opinion I respect. Did I get three different answers? You be the judge.
Robert R. Johnson, PhD, CFA, CAIA, is the former deputy CEO of the CFA Institute and was President of the College of Financial Services. Currently Dr. Johnson is a Professor of Finance, Heider College of Business at Creighton University. His credentials also include co-author of The Tools and Techniques of Investment Planning, Strategic Value Investing, Investment Banking for Dummies, and others. Overall, his response argues for not shying away from what traditionally has been better-performing investments over time.
He highlighted that investing for as long as possible should involve not waiting until a week before the tax date and making a maximum deposit. If your money is sitting in cash rather than invested, there is a cash performance drag as cash including money markets, more often than not, is a worse performer than equities.
The finance professor pointed out the statistical truth that holding significant amounts of cash ensures that one will suffer significant opportunity losses. Johnson says, “when it comes to building wealth, one can either sleep well or eat well.” He explains, “investing conservatively allows one to sleep well, as there isn’t much volatility. But, it doesn’t allow you to eat well in the long run because your account won’t grow much.”
He backs this up with data compiled by Ibbotson Associates data on large capitalization stocks (think S&P 500), which returned 10.1% compounded annually from 1926-2022. Johnson points out that during the same years, government bonds returned 5.2% annually and T-bills returned 3.2% annually. He explained, “to put it in perspective, $1.00 in invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 1926 would have grown to $11,307.59 (with all dividends reinvested).” He then compared, “that same dollar invested in T-bills would have grown to $21.23.”
What to invest in is certainly an important decision, Dr. Johnson explained, “The surest way to build wealth over long time horizons is to invest in a diversified portfolio of common stocks. Someone with a long time horizon should not have exposure to money market instruments, yet many investors do because they fear the volatility of the stock market.”
Dennie Ceelen, CFP has been part of the Noble Capital Markets Private Client Group in Boca Raton, FL since 2002. He provides wealth management services to NOBLE Clients. He’s also a committee member of The Society of Financial Service Professionals.
When asked if one should invest or wait, he apologetically answered, “it depends.”
Mr. Ceelen explains that when it comes to investments, one size does not fit all. A nineteen-year-old with little or no table income and only an extra $1,000 to put away may be better off investing in education or a car to get them to work. This idea of no IRA deposit at all could even be true of a couple saving to buy their first home. If putting the maximum away for retirement, 40 years away, prevents the purchase of a home in the next year or two, it may not make sense to fund an IRA at all for them this tax year.
For those that are regularly funding an IRA he said, “if your timeline is 30-years until you retire, invest immediately.” Ceelen explained, the general rule of thumb is that the markets over time will go up, the market will be higher in 30 years,” is the expectation based on past experience.
While talking about those with far less than 30-years until retirement, he pulled out a simple spreadsheet that shows that markets don’t always go up. A screenshot of this spreadsheet of major index performance from the close of business the last day of 2021 until March 29, 2023 is provided below.
After 15-months of market downturn, history suggests the losses are temporary
Dennie Ceelen used the spreadsheet to show why he said “it depends.” He said, “if you are retiring in the next two years, make the contribution, take advantage of the tax break but let it sit in cash, or take advantage of the high rates on money markets/short term CD’s.”
“There is no reason to partake in this volatile market if you are that close to retirement,” he cautioned for those close to retirement. Making decisions like this is why many hire financial professionals.
David M. Wright, CLU, ChFC, president and owner of Wright Financial Group, with offices in Ohio and Florida is a 36-year veteran in the financial services industry. He hosts a local radio show called Retirement Income Source with David Wright, and is a frequent guest on TD Ameritrade Insights. One of Mr. Wright’s focuses is on providing workable retirement solutions for those in or close to retirement. His upcoming book, Bonfire of the Sanities: Reset Your Retirement Portfolio for Today’s Financial Lunacy, will be available later this year.
“How you invest your IRA for the 2022-23 tax season has been and always will be a function of your time horizon and propensity for risk,” Wright was quick to point out.
Wright’s explanation as to whether the timing is right also included what he believes would be the more suitable investment. He offered, “for individuals who are more than 10-15 years away from needing to access their cash, choosing high quality, dividend-paying companies with good cash flow are probably the best bet right now, given the economic tightening that will certainly impact more highly leveraged companies that have to refinance their debt in the future.” He cautioned that those in the age category above, “growth stocks, in particular those that pay very small dividends will probably be the most impacted by the Federal Reserve’s mandate to fight inflation by raising rates.”
For those even closer to retirement, five to ten years, he said that a dollar-cost averaging strategy to more slowly enter the market is more prudent, “you are systematically buying into the market without worrying about the purchase price of the investment itself,” Wright said.
“For those individuals that are within five years or less of retirement, pushing the pause button and purchasing short duration treasuries probably makes the most sense right now due to the higher yields offered courtesy of the Federal Reserve – with 3 month yields 4.8% at the moment,” David Wright explained for those with less time before needing the account for living expenses.
Wright added one more note of advice for the current tax season, “with the mixed signals of financial news from bank failures to reducing inflation, it probably makes sense to be more cautious right now until the financial storms subside.”
Take Away
There are many right ways to do anything. Multiply that by the different stages of life, and then there are many more. If you are making a last-minute 2022 tax year IRA deposit, hopefully, there are words of wisdom among these three professionals that have been useful.
Overall it seems time in the market is expected to outperform time out of the market, with the caveat, over the short term, anything can happen.
CFA Exam is Evolving to Better Reflect Employee, Employer, and Candidate Needs
The CFA Institute is making the most significant changes to its program since first introduced back in 1963. All of the changes are designed to better serve employers, candidates, and charterholders. The designation is considered the gold standard in the investment profession, so modifying the program must have involved much thought and debate. Six additions will be rolled out for those beginning the journey toward a CFA this year. The end result will be expanded eligibility, hands-on learning, a more focused curriculum, additional practice available, the ability to specialize, and recognition at every passed level.
What is a Chartered Financial Analyst?
A Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) is a professional designation awarded to financial analysts who have passed a rigorous set of exams administered by the CFA Institute. The CFA program is a globally recognized, graduate-level curriculum that covers a range of investment topics, including financial analysis, portfolio management, and ethical and professional standards.
To become a CFA charterholder, candidates must pass three levels of exams, each of which are administered once a year. In addition to passing the exams, candidates must also meet work experience or school requirements.
Eligibility
The institute is selective in who can be a candidate. In the past, those with a degree and working in the business, needed to be sponsored by two people; first, a current CFA member, and the second the prospective candidate’s supervisor. For students, the requirement was that they be in their last year of study and be sponsored by a professor in lieu of a supervisor.
The policy that had been in place is that students with just one year remaining in their studies may seek CFA candidacy. The purpose of the new policy, according to Margeret Franklin CFA, President and CEO of the CFA Institute, is to “provide students with the opportunity to Level 1 of the CFA program as a clear signal to employers that they are serious about a career in the investment industry by getting an early start in the program.” This is the first of the revisions in the program and has been in place since November 2022.
Job Ready Skills
This new feature recognizes there is a difference between textbook understanding and work. The upcoming study and test material is designed for charterholders to be able to add value much earlier to their employer by imparting practical skills. A practical skills module will be added beginning with those scheduled for the February 2024 Level 1 exam. Level II candidates taking the test in May 2024 will also be tested on this new material. Level III candidates will see this material in 2025.
The impetus for this addition, according to the CFA Institute’s website, is it, “allows us to meet the expressed needs of student candidates, providing them with the opportunity to prepare for internships and investment careers, while also addressing industry demand for well-trained, ethical professionals.”
Expanded Study Material
Candidates are told they can greatly increase their chances of success taking the exam if they correctly answer 1,000 practice question during study, and score at least 70% on a mock exam. The Institute has added as an extra (not part of the basic study package) three new elements for preparation.
To increase the percentage of successful candidates, the CFA Institute now offers a Level I Practice Pack. It includes 1,000 more practice questions and six additional mock exams to go with the study materials that is standard with registration.
The add-on also provides six additional, exam-quality mock exams. The questions are prepared by the same team that create the exams each year.
More Focused
The CFA has branded itself with the promise that 300 hours of study per level is what is needed for success. They recognize that most candidates put in much more time, and the success rate for this tough series of exams is low. The Institute has streamlined study to make more efficient its Level I material beginning with those sitting for the Level I exam in 2024.
To be more efficient, the Institute presumes Level I candidates have already mastered many introductory financial concepts as part of their university studies or career role. To avoid duplication and to streamline Level I curriculum content, they have moved some of this content. It is available separately as reference material for registered candidates.
The content that has been moved to “Pre-Read” incudes topics like the time-value of money, basic statistics, microeconomics, and introduction to company accounts.
Choose Your Specialty
Starting in 2025, candidates will be able to choose one of three specialty paths to be tested at Level III. The reason for the addition is the CFA curriculum has always prepared candidates for investment and finance buy-side roles. This choice allows the CFA credential to grow and develop to meet the needs of a broader group of individuals and employers.
The CFA traditional path has been to prepare the candidate for a portfolio management role. This traditional path is still included. The Institute is also adding concentrations in private wealth management, and private markets. There will only be one credential, the Chartered Financial Analyst, but three areas of specialty.
Recognition at Every Level
While the goal of every candidate is to earn a full-fledged CFA designation, each level is a significant achievement. Now, CFA Institute awarded digital badges will recognize success at the first two levels.
The digital badges, to be used on social media when rolled out later in 2023 will be accompanied by marketing and awareness-building with employers, to improve the visibility and value placed on progress through the CFA program. The goal is for candidates to be distinguished in the market, have one-click social sharing, with instant verification to employers and colleagues to boost credibility and solidify a candidates’ accomplishment.
Overall the change, is to signal to the market that completing Levels I and II are substantial achievements, with tangible recognition of a candidate’s commitment to the industry through their learned skills and experience, professionalism and ethical practices.
Take Away
The world investment world is changing, and the CFA Institute is responding in order to better serve those that benefit from this prestigious designation. Candidates will now have more choices, more study material available, and the ability to take credit for their rigorous studies beginning after passing Level I.
Fragile Investor Confidence Could Create Greater Repercussions, Says Moody’s
Bankdemic?
Moody’s Investors Service is cautiously optimistic bank problems will not spill over into the broader economy. However, in a new report, this top-three rating agency said they believe the financial regulators have acted in a way to prevent ripple effects from stressed banks, but they admit there is a good deal of uncertainty in both investor confidence and the economy as a whole. Moody’s wrote that “there is a risk that policymakers will be unable to curtail the current turmoil without longer-lasting and potentially severe repercussions within and beyond the banking sector.”
The reason for the rating services concern is, “even before bank stress became evident, we had expected global credit conditions to continue to weaken in 2023 as a result of significantly higher interest rates and lower growth, including recessions in some countries.” Moody’s said that the longer financial conditions remain tight, the greater the chance that industries outside of banking will experience problems.
Moody’s outlined three channels by which bank problems could become contagious to other sectors.
The first and most possible channel would be the problems encountered by entities with direct and indirect exposure to troubled banks. These can come in different forms. Financial and nonfinancial entities in the private and public sectors could have direct exposure to banks via deposits, loans, other transactional facilities, or direct holdings of weakened banks’ stocks or bonds. Unrelated, they may rely on a troubled bank for services essential to their business.
As it relates to this first channel, the rating agency wrote, “Monitoring and evaluating the direct and indirect links at the entity level will be a key focus of our credit analysis over the coming weeks and months.” Moody’s mentioned Credit Suisse by name in their note, saying the consequences of the UBS takeover are still unfolding, “Given the size and systemic importance of Credit Suisse, there likely will be varied consequences of its takeover for a range of financial actors with direct exposure to the bank.” The rating agency also believes the rapid completion of the deal appears to have avoided widespread contagion across the banking sector.”
The second channel Moody’s indicates could be most potent. It is that broader problems within the banking sector would cause banks to have stricter lending practices. Moody’s says that if this occurred, it would impact customers that are “liquidity-constrained.” The domino impact would then be that investors and lenders may become more cautious, “with particular regard to entities that are exposed to risks similar to those of the troubled banks.”
From this scenario, there is a potential for shocks from interest rate risk, asset-liability mismatches, a large imbalance of assets or liabilities, poor governance, weak profits, and higher leverage.
The third risk is seen as policy risk. For policymakers whose main focus is taming inflation, the bank problems pose additional challenges to steering the economy to a soft landing. Policy actions and expectations will continue to serve to shape market sentiment. Moody’s baseline case forecasts that it expects policy responses to be rapid if risks emerge. This could help keep entity-level issues from becoming systemic problems. Moody’s note recognizes that policy and implementation are challenging, and there are risks of policy missteps, limitations, or unintended consequences.
“One key policy challenge is how policymakers will address both inflation and financial stability risks,” Moody’s explained that inflation is still high and labor market strength continues. “the failure to rein in inflation now could lead to de-anchoring of inflation expectations and increased nominal bond yields, forcing even more tightening later to restore monetary policy credibility.”
Moody’s wrote that the actions taken by the central banks, and financial regulators show that they recognize the importance of agility and coordination to address arising problems while not acting in a way to add more stress and create a systemic crisis.
Take Away
The recent downfall of a few banks demonstrates how pulling liquidity out of an overly stimulated economy can cause withdrawal pains. Whether the new, tighter credit conditions will tip the economy into a deeper economic downturn as the spillover effect spreads to other sectors remains to be seen. If it occurs, Moody’s expects it would come from the interplay between preexisting credit risks, policy actions, and market sentiment. But, its role as a rating agency is to highlight possible risks. This is not a forecast, there forecast is that regulators and policymakers will have eventually succeeded to contain any ripple effects.
To Show Banks at Risk, Michael Burry’s Picture Equals 1000 Words
Michael Burry has a well-deserved reputation for foreseeing approaching crises and positioning his hedge funds to benefit client investors. While he’s most famous for his unique windfall leading to and after the mortgage crisis of 2008-2009, the current banking debacle has him tweeting thoughts most days. His most recent bank-related tweet is worth sharing and, for most investors, needs some explaining.
Recently Burry posted a chart of some large banks and their insured deposit base relative to their Tier 1 capital.
@michaeljburry (Twitter)
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1)
To best understand this chart it helps to be aware that for U.S. banks, the definition of Tier 1 capital is set by regulators. It’s an apples to apples measure of a banks’ financial strength and easily used to compare bank peers. Overall it is the bank’s core capital, and helps to understand how well the banks financial infrastructure can absorb losses. It includes equity and retained earnings, as well as certain other qualifying financial instruments.
Unrealized Bank Losses
The sub-prime banking crisis of 2008 is different than what banks are struggling with now. The problem then was created by lax lending practices, including liar loans, floating rate mortgages with teaser rates, significant house flipping using these introductory (teaser) first year rates, and repackaging and selling the debt – often to other banks.
The current issue facing banks today is the prolonged period of rates being held down by monetary policy. Low rates makes for easy money and economic growth, but there is eventually a cost. The cost is overstimulus and inflation, then what is needed to fight inflation, in other words, higher rates.
Higher rates hurt banks in a number of ways. The most calculable is the value of their asssets, including publicly traded fixed rate obligations (Treasuries, MBS, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, other bank marketable CDs) all decline in worth when rates rise. The other way banks get hurt is that loans extend out when rates rise by a significant amount. As a bank customer, this is easy to understand, if you took out a 30-year mortgage two years ago, your rate is between 2.75%-3.50%. If mortgage rates move, as they did to 7%, the prepayment speeds on the loans extend out farther. That is to say fewer borrowers are going to add more to their principal payment each month, and those that may have bought another residence by selling the first and paying the loan off, are staying put. The banks had assigned a historic expected prepayment speed to each loan that represents their region, and the low rate loans are now going to take much longer to repay.
FDIC Insurance
Michael Burry (on assets as described above) used his Bloomberg to chart large bank unrealized losses to the potential for depositors to remove their uninsured deposits. Currently the FDIC is only obligated to insure bank deposits up to $250,000. Customers with deposits in excess of this amount (depending on how registered) leave their excess money at a single bank at their own risk.
It would seem logical for large customers and small, in this environment to check their own risk and bring it to zero.
The Wisdom of the Chart
The further up and to the right banks are on the chart, the more at risk the bank can be considered. This is because uninsured deposits equal more than 60% of liabilities, so prudent customers would move someplace where they are better protected.
However, if depositors do move money out of the banks listed here, the bank would have to either find new deposits, or stand to lose 30% or more by selling assets that are underwater because of rising rates. The banks are currently not easily able to go out into the market and attract money. Partially because we are now in a climate where even basic T-Bill levels would be high for a bank to pay, but also because there is less money supply (M2) in the system.
@michaeljburry (Twitter)
Take Away
Michael Burry is a worth paying attention to. His communication is often through Twitter, and his tweets are often cryptic without context. His most recent set of tweets, including one commenting on the chart outlines what is happening with a number of banks that find themselves in the unenviable position of ignoring the Fed’s forward guidance on rates and very public inflation data.
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Will Systemic Risks to the Banking System Override Inflation Concerns When the Fed Meets?
Yes, the Federal Reserve’s central objective is to help maintain a sound banking system in the United States. The Fed’s regional presidents are currently in a blackout period (no public appearances) until after the FOMC meeting ends on March 22. So there is little for markets to go on to determine if the difficulties being experienced by banks will hinder the Fed’s resolve to bring inflation down to 2%. Or if the systemic risks to banks will override concerns surrounding inflation. Below we discuss some of the considerations the Fed may consider at the next meeting.
The Federal Reserve’s sound banking system responsibility is part of its broader responsibility to promote financial stability in the U.S. economy. The Fed does its best to balance competing challenges through monetary policy to promote price stability (low-inflation), maintaining the safety and soundness of individual banks, and supervising and regulating the overall banking industry to ensure that it operates in a prudent and sound manner.
While the headline news after the Fed adjusts monetary policy is usually about the Fed Funds target, the Fed can also adjust Reserve Requirements for banks. Along with that, the rate paid on these reserves, Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER). Another key bank rate that is mostly invisible to consumers is the Discount Rate. This is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money directly from the Federal Reserve. The discount rate is set by the Fed’s Board of Governors and is typically higher than the Federal Funds rate.
Banks try to avoid going to the Discount Window at the Fed because using this more expensive money is a sign to investors or depositors that something may be unhealthy at the institution. Figures for banks using this facility are reported each Thursday afternoon. There doesn’t seem to be bright flashing warning signs in the March 9 report. The amount lent on average for the seven-day period ending Thursday March 9, had decreased substantially, following a decrease the prior week. While use of the Discount Window facility is just one indicator of the overall banking systems health, it is not sending up red flags for the Fed or other stakeholders.
The European Central Bank Raised Rates
There is an expression, “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” The actions of the central bank in Europe, (the equivalent of the Federal Reserve in the U.S.) demonstrates that the bank failures in the U.S. are viewed as less than a sneeze. The ECB raised interest rates by half of a percentage point on Thursday (March 16). This is in line with its previously stated plan, even as the U.S. worries surrounding the banking system have shaken confidence in banks and the financial markets in recent days.
The ECB didn’t completely ignore the noise across the Atlantic; it said in a statement that its policymakers were “monitoring current market tensions closely” and the bank “stands ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability in the euro area.”
While Fed Chair Powell is restricted from making public addresses during the pre-FOMC blackout period, it is highly likely that there have been conversations with his cohorts in Frankfurt.
The Fed’s Upcoming Decision
On March 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported core inflation (without volatile food and energy) rose in February. Another indicator, the most recent PCE index released on February 24 also demonstrated that core prices are rising at a pace faster than the Fed deems healthy for consumers, banking, or the economy at large. The inflation numbers suggest it would be perilous for the Fed to pause its tightening efforts now.
What has so far been limited to a few U.S. banks is not likely to have been a complete surprise to those that have been setting monetary policy for the last 12 months. It may have surprised most market participants, but warning signs are usually picked up by the FRS, FDIC, and even OCC well in advance. And before news of a bank closure becomes public. Yet, the FOMC continued raising rates and implementing quantitative tightening. The big difference today is, the world is now aware of the problems and the markets are spooked.
The post-meeting FOMC statement will likely differ vastly from the past few meetings. While what the Fed decides to do remains far from certain, what is certain is that inflation is still a problem, and rising interest rates mathematically erode the value of bank assets. At the same time, money supply (M2) is declining at its fastest rate in history. At its most basic definition, M2 is consumer’s cash position, including held at banks. As less cash is held at banks, some institutions may find themselves in the position SVB was in; they have to sell assets to meet withdrawals. The asset values, which were “purchased” at lower rates, now sell for far less than were paid for them.
This would seem to put the Fed in a box. However, if it uses the Discount Window tool, and makes borrowing easier by banks, it may be able to satisfy both demands. Tighter monetary policy, while providing liquidity to banks that are being squeezed.
Take Away
What the Fed will ultimately do remains far from certain. And a lot can happen in a week. Bank closings occur on Friday’s so the FDIC has the weekend to seize control. So if you’re concerned, don’t take Friday afternoons off.
If the Fed Declines to raise rates in March it could send a signal that the Fed is weakening its fight against inflation. This could cause rates to spike higher in anticipation of rising inflation. Everyone loses if that is the case, consumers, banks, and those holding U.S. dollars.
The weakness appears to be isolated in the regional-bank sector and was likely known to the Fed prior to the closing of the banks.
Consider this, only two things have changed for Powell since the last meeting, one is rising core CPI. The other is that he will have to do an even better job at building confidence post-FOMC meeting. Business people and investors want to know that the Fed can handle the hiccups along the path to stamping out high inflation.
FDIC, Federal Reserve, and Treasury Issue Joint Statements on Silicon Valley Bank
In a joint statement released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg, they announced actions they are now committed to taking to “protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in the banking system.” The actions are being taken to ensure that “the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.”
Specifically, the actions directly impact two banks, Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York, but it was made clear that it could be extended to other institutions. The joint news release reads, “After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.
In a second release by the three agencies, details were uncovered as to how this was designed to not impact depositors, with losses being borne by stockholders and debtholders. The release reads as follows:
“The additional funding will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.
With approval of the Treasury Secretary, the Department of the Treasury will make available up to $25 billion from the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the BTFP. The Federal Reserve does not anticipate that it will be necessary to draw on these backstop funds.
After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary Yellen, after consultation with the President, approved actions to enable the FDIC to complete its resolutions of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in a manner that fully protects all depositors, both insured and uninsured. These actions will reduce stress across the financial system, support financial stability and minimize any impact on businesses, households, taxpayers, and the broader economy.
The Board is carefully monitoring developments in financial markets. The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong and the U.S. financial system is resilient.”
Take Away
Confidence by depositors, investors, and all economic participants is important for those entrusted to keep the U.S. economy steady. The measures appear to strive for the markets to open on Monday with more calm than might otherwise have occurred.
While the sense of resolve of the steps explained in the two statements, both released at 6:15 ET Sunday evening is reminiscent of 2008, there is still no expectation that the problem is wider than a few institutions.
Image: Director of the Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young besides President Biden (Credit: The White House, March 2022)
Investor Buy/Sell Patterns Could Change Under Biden Budget Proposals
The White House’s annual budget request to Congress has the power to move market sectors, as it’s a preliminary look at spending priorities and possible revenue sources. This year, alongside the pressure of Congress wrestling with raising the debt limit, the House Ways and Means Committee hearings related to the President’s budget could have a more significant impact than before. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will address the House committee on Friday, March 10th, and respond to questions. Taxation and spending priorities of the White House will be further revealed during this exchange.
The President’s proposed budget for the 2024 fiscal year proposes cutting the U.S. deficit “by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade,” according to White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, this is a much larger number than the $2 trillion mentioned as a goal during the State of the Union address last month. Jean-Pierre explained to reporters that the proposed spending reduction is “something that shows the American people that we take this very seriously,” and it answers, “how do we move forward, not just for Americans today but for … other generations that are going to be coming behind us.”
Source: Twitter
Biden’s requested budget includes a proposal that could impact healthcare as it would grow Medicare financing by raising the Medicare tax rate on earned and investment income to 5% from the current 3.8% for people making more than $400,000 a year.
Railroad safety measures are also included in Biden’s proposal, it asks for millions of additional funding for railroad safety measures spurred by recent derailments. The President also proposes a 5.2% pay raise for federal employees.
The budget deficit would be expected to shrink over ten years in part by raising taxes. One proposal investors should look out for is what has been called the Billionaire Minimum Income Tax. According to a White House brief, it “will ensure that the wealthiest Americans pay a tax rate of at least 20 percent on their full income, including unrealized appreciation. This minimum tax would make sure that the wealthiest Americans no longer pay a tax rate lower than teachers and firefighters.” The tax will apply only to the top 0.01% of American households (those worth over $100 million).
At present, the tax system discourages taking taxable gains on investments to postpone taxes. If adopted by Congress, a 20% tax on the unrealized appreciation of investments could have the effect of altering buying and selling patterns of securities, as well as real estate and other investments.
Jean-Pierre did say that the budget would propose “tax reforms to ensure the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share while cutting wasteful spending on special interests like big oil and big pharma.” One reform, the White House has been outspoken about is corporate buybacks. He proposes, quadrupling the tax on corporate stock buybacks.
Take Away
The market will get insight beginning the second week of March 2023 into the financial priorities of the White House and thoughts on members of the House Ways and Means Committee. While nothing is set in stone, the White House and Congress would both seem to be on the same side of more fiscal restraint.
And although nothing is close to complete, the discussions and news of debate can have a dramatic impact on markets. For example, investors may be treated to more buybacks if it appears the tax on buybacks will increase in 2024. Another example would be a tax on the appreciated investments of wealthy individuals. It could follow that accounts of these individuals would have an increased incentive to transact than under a system where capital gains are only recognized by the IRS after taken.
