Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Energy Industry Report

Energy 2020-4Q Review and Outlook

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to end of report for Analyst Certification & Disclosures

• Oil prices rose sharply beginning in November but are still well below levels at the start of the year. Oil prices continued to rebound from the sharp drop seen in the first quarter as investor enthusiasm about a Coronavirus vaccine pushed prices higher. WTI oil prices began the quarter in the mid thirties and finished the quarter near $47.50/BBL. Near-month oil futures prices are locked in a narrow range near current spot prices. Prices are still well below beginning-of-the-year prices near $60 per barrel.
• Natural gas prices had risen but have fallen in recent weeks due to warm weather. Natural Gas prices also rose during the quarter although they have slipped in recent weeks. Recent weakness reflects significantly warmer-than-normal weather. Population-weighted heating degree days were 21% warmer than the 10-year trailing average in the month of November and similar to historical averages in December. As a result of warm weather, natural gas in storage ended the year at all-time high levels for this time of year and 2.6% above the trailing five-year average.
• Energy stocks climbed 27% in the quarter mirroring the performance of oil prices. Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, rose alongside oil prices climbing 27% during the quarter. The rise began in November when oil prices rose. Even with the strong performance in the fourth quarter, however, the energy index was down 38% in 2020. This compares to a 14% rise in the overall market.
• The near-term outlook for energy stocks has improved but we still have long-term concerns. The rebound in oil prices came faster than expected. We have been adjusting our models to reflect higher prices but are maintaining our long-term oil price forecast of $50 per barrel and $2.50 per mcf. Our near-term outlook for energy stocks has improved. We expect companies to report favorable results for the next few quarters unless rising production pushes energy prices lower. Longer-term, we have concern that oil demand will be constrained by power generation competition from renewable energy and decreased demand for gasoline and diesel due to a growth in electric vehicles. At the same time, supply pressure from an increasingly active OPEC and continued drilling productivity will mean lower energy prices.

Oil Prices

Oil prices continued to rebound from the sharp drop seen in the first quarter as investor enthusiasm about a Coronavirus vaccine pushed prices higher. WTI prices began the quarter in the mid thirties and finished the quarter near $47.50/BBL. Near-month oil futures prices are locked in a narrow range near current spot prices. Prices are still well below beginning-of-the-year prices near $60 per barrel. Interestingly, drilling had not resumed by the end of the year. Baker Hughes reported 351 active rigs in the United States as of December 31, less than half the number from a year ago. Consequently, domestic production has not changed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that domestic oil production rose a modest 2.7% between September and November (the last month available) and attributes the increase largely to hurricane-disrupted wells coming back online. We would expect to see production expand in upcoming months with increased drilling.

Natural Gas Prices 

Natural Gas prices also rose during the quarter although they have slipped in recent weeks. Recent weakness reflects significantly warmer-than-normal weather. Population-weighted heating degree days were 21% warmer than the 10-year trailing average in the month of November and similar to historical averages in December. As a result of warm weather, natural gas in storage ended the year at all-time high levels for this time of year and 2.6% above the trailing five-year average. Natural gas futures prices show prices rising modestly as the futures curve extends into the spring.

Energy Stocks 

Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, rose alongside oil prices climbing 27% during the quarter. The chart below shows that the strength in energy stocks began in November, the exact time that oil prices began to rise. The performance in the quarter far outpaced the overall market. Even with the strong performance in the fourth quarter, however, the energy index was down 38% in 2020. This compares to a 14% rise in the overall market.

Outlook 

The rebound in oil prices came faster than expected. We have been adjusting our models to reflect higher prices but are maintaining our long-term oil price forecast of $50 per barrel and $2.50 per mcf. Energy companies should start reporting positive cash flow at these prices and increasing drilling budgets. That said, marginal wells will most likely not be drilled, and production growth will be difficult unless we see prices rise back to a level near $60/bbl. and $3.00/mcf.  Companies must continue to work to lower costs to adjust to current prices by finetuning drilling techniques. 

Our near-term outlook for energy stocks has improved. We expect companies to report favorable results for the next few quarters unless rising production pushes energy prices lower. Longer-term, we have concern that oil demand will be constrained by power generation competition from renewable energy and decreased demand for gasoline and diesel due to a growth in electric vehicles. At the same time, supply pressure from an increasingly active OPEC and continued drilling productivity will mean lower energy prices. We recommend investors stay focused on energy companies with solid balance sheets, low operating costs and protected prices.

 

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on energy and utility stocks. 24 years of experience as an analyst. Chartered Financial Analyst©. MBA from Washington University in St. Louis and BA in Economics from Carleton College in Minnesota. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst four times. Named Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst” three times. FINRA licenses 7, 63, 86, 87.

WARNING

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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View

All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation

No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest

Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS	% OF SECURITIES COVERED	% IB CLIENTS
Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price	78%	34%
Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price	5%	1%
Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price	0%	0%

NOTE: On August 20, 2018, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. changed the terminology of its ratings (as shown above) from “Buy” to “Outperform”, from “Hold” to “Market Perform” and from “Sell” to “Underperform.” The percentage relationships, as compared to current price (definitions), have remained the same.

Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by mail or phone.

Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) registered broker/dealer.
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Member – SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation)

Report ID: 11924

 

 

Energy Fuels Applauds $75 Million Launch of the U.S. Uranium Reserve in Bipartisan 2021 Omnibus Spending Bill

 

LAKEWOOD, Colo., Dec. 22, 2020 /CNW/ – Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) (TSX: EFR) (“Energy Fuels” or the “Company”) the largest uranium miner in the U.S., applauds the bipartisan, bicameral launch of the U.S. uranium reserve, as $75 million of funding was included in the omnibus appropriation bill passed by both houses of Congress last night. Appropriating funding for a U.S. uranium reserve was one of the main recommendations of the U.S. Nuclear Fuel Working Group, which was directed to make recommendations on securing the domestic capacity to produce uranium and nuclear fuel. This key funding opens the door for the U.S. government to purchase domestically-produced uranium to guard against potential commercial and national security risks presented by our country’s near-total reliance on foreign imports of uranium. The bill is expected to be sent to the President for signature in the coming days.

Energy Fuels has been the number one uranium miner in the U.S. since 2017, and the projects the Company now owns and operates have produced roughly one-third of all uranium mined in the U.S. since 2006, ranking second among all U.S. uranium producers during that period. Energy Fuels holds three (3) of the most productive uranium facilities in the U.S., which together have a combined licensed capacity to produce over 11.5 million pounds of uranium per year. This includes the White Mesa Mill, located in southeast Utah, which is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, along with the Nichols Ranch and Alta Mesa in situ recovery (“ISR”) facilities, located in Wyoming and Texas respectively, both of which are on standby. The Company is therefore in an unmatched position and stands ready to supply uranium for the reserve.

Mark S. Chalmers, President and CEO of Energy Fuels stated: “Energy Fuels extends our gratitude to Congress and the Administration for working together on a bipartisan basis to appropriate these funds in 2021 for the creation of a U.S. uranium reserve. We are extremely pleased to see members on both sides of the aisle support a healthy domestic uranium industry, so America cannot be held hostage by foreign adversaries like Russia for the fuel needed to generate clean, carbon-free nuclear energy. This funding also has the potential to create good-paying jobs and economic opportunity for under-served areas of Wyoming, Texas and Utah. We wish to extend a particular thank you to Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, a tireless champion for the U.S. uranium industry and a true advocate for ending America’s dependence on foreign adversaries for the critical minerals we need today.

“Creation of a uranium reserve is truly a milestone for our industry, and $75 million will go a long way toward reviving and expanding the domestic production of nuclear fuel in 2021 and beyond. We look forward to working with the U.S. Department of Energy to make sure this funding is spent wisely to support existing infrastructure by purchasing uranium from existing, proven uranium facilities.

“Our White Mesa Mill in Utah is a clean energy and critical minerals hub, a concept that goes much farther than simply mining and producing uranium. Any funds used through a Department of Energy program to purchase uranium from the White Mesa Mill can have a ‘multiplier effect’, by not only supporting the domestic uranium mining industry, but also by advancing other important clean energy priorities, including rare earth production, abandoned mine cleanup and supporting Native American communities.

“Energy Fuels, and particularly our White Mesa Mill, is one of the best untold clean energy stories in the U.S. today. The U.S. uranium reserve can help revive domestic uranium production, while also accelerating other important initiatives that play a part in making the world a cleaner and healthier place.”

About Energy Fuels: Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. The Company also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and anticipates commencing commercial production of rare earth element (“REE”) carbonate in 2021. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all of its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, and is completing final test-work for the production of REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: This news release contains certain “Forward Looking Information” and “Forward Looking Statements” within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, which may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to: the Company being a leading producer of uranium in the U.S.; any expectation that the Company is able to produce REE carbonate from uranium-bearing ores or that the Company will commence commercial production of REE carbonate in 2021 or at all; any expectation that the Company’s REE project may, in time, result in among the lowest cost REE production in the western world; any expectation that the Company will be successful in acquiring additional supplies of monazite, or will be successful in processing other types of REE- and uranium bearing ores at the White Mesa Mill; any expectation that the Company will be successful in achieving its goal of processing 15,000+ tons of monazite and other sources of ore per year; any expectation that the Company will be able to sell some or all of its REE carbonate to buyers in Europe and/or Asia until a REE separation facility is established in the United States; any expectation that the Company may potentially perform separation, and other downstream REE activities including metal-making and alloying, in the future at the White Mesa Mill or elsewhere in the United States; any expectation that the Company will be successful in helping the EPA and Navajo Nation address historic abandoned uranium mines; any expectation that the Company will significantly increase the number of green jobs it is providing at the White Mesa Mill; and any other statements regarding Energy Fuels’ future expectations, beliefs, goals or prospects; constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation (collectively, “forward-looking statements”). All statements in this news release that are not statements of historical fact (including statements containing the words “expects,” “does not expect,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “does not anticipate,” “believes,” “intends,” “estimates,” “projects,” “potential,” “scheduled,” “forecast,” “budget” and similar expressions) should be considered forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to important risk factors and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Energy Fuels’ ability to control or predict. A number of important factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or implied by such forward-looking statements, including without limitation factors relating to: the Company being a leading producer of uranium in the U.S.; any expectation that the Company is able to produce REE carbonate from uranium-bearing ores or that the Company will commence commercial production of REE carbonate in 2021 or at all; any expectation that the Company’s REE project may, in time, result in among the lowest cost REE production in the western world; any expectation that the Company will be successful in acquiring additional supplies of monazite, or will be successful in processing other types of REE- and uranium bearing ores at the White Mesa Mill; any expectation that the Company will be successful in achieving its goal of processing 15,000+ tons of monazite and other sources of ore per year; any expectation that the Company will be able to sell some or all of its REE carbonate to buyers in Europe and/or Asia until a REE separation facility is established in the United States; any expectation that the Company may potentially perform separation, and other downstream REE activities including metal-making and alloying, in the future at the White Mesa Mill or elsewhere in the United States; any expectation that the Company will be successful in helping the EPA and Navajo Nation address historic abandoned uranium mines; any expectation that the Company will significantly increase the number of green jobs it is providing at the White Mesa Mill; and the other risk factors as described in Energy Fuels’ most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly financial reports. Energy Fuels assumes no obligation to update the information in this communication, except as otherwise required by law. Additional information identifying risks and uncertainties is contained in Energy Fuels’ filings with the various securities commissions, which are available online at www.sec.gov and www.sedar.com. Forward-looking statements are provided for the purpose of providing information about the current expectations, beliefs and plans of the management of Energy Fuels relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that such statements may not be appropriate for other purposes. Readers are also cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, that speak only as of the date hereof.

SOURCE Energy Fuels Inc.

For further information: Investor Inquiries: Energy Fuels Inc.: Curtis Moore, VP – Marketing and Corporate Development, (303) 974-2140 or Toll free: (888) 864-2125, investorinfo@energyfuels.com; www.energyfuels.com