Amazon Suspected to be Accepting Bitcoin Soon



Is Amazon Getting Primed for Cryptocurrencies?

 

There has been a lot of uplifting news related to Bitcoin and the prospect of the cryptocurrency becoming mainstreamed. Less than two weeks ago Jack Dorsey the CEO of the fintech powerhouse Square, said Square
is building
a decentralized finance business using bitcoin. Last week the Ark Invest sponsored conference named The
B Word
featured celebrity CEOs such as Elon Musk and Cathie Wood touting the benefits of Bitcoin.  This morning speculators in the asset woke up to a much more subtle reason to be optimistic. Amazon, the mega-giant of online retailers, ran a help wanted ad. The ad was for a “digital currency and blockchain lead.”

Certainty as to what Amazon’s plans are is not available outside the confines of the higher echelons of Amazon. However, the widely embraced hunch is that the open position is to create a team responsible for how Amazon’s customers pay on its platforms.  The possibility that the most influential leader in high tech retailing may begin to accept the currency sparked a 12% increase to levels not experienced in six weeks.

 

“…in this role you will:

· Own the vision and strategy for Amazon’s Digital Currency and Blockchain strategy and product roadmap

· Write documents that work backwards from customer and partner needs
· Dive deep into customer and system data to perform analysis
· Partner effectively with other leaders in product, design, marketing, engineering, science and business intelligence to influence priorities and drive alignment
· Maintain excellent judgment on prioritization between focusing features, architectural improvements and operational excellence

· Monitor project execution and ensuring that the project delivery is to the appropriate levels of quality and in line with target dates

                 Excerpt from Amazonjobs, Job ID: 1644513 

 

London newspaper City A.M. quoted an anonymous source expressing that the job post is just the surface of a more committed push into the space. “It begins with bitcoin – this is the key first stage of this crypto project, and the directive is coming from the very top… Jeff Bezos himself,” according to the unnamed source.  Bezos stepped down as CEO of Amazon in early July. He remains executive chairman of the board of directors. The unnamed source was also quoted by the London paper as saying, “Ethereum, Cardano, and Bitcoin Cash will be next in line before they bring about eight of the most popular cryptocurrencies online.” The source also claimed that Amazon’s crypto push has been in motion since 2019.

Take-Away

There has been a big move in recent weeks by influential CEOs to bring out the full potential of the more widely traded cryptocurrencies. The most recent impacted Bitcoin’s price by 12%, although it is not very definitive what Amazon’s plans are, and reports rely on anonymous sources. Looming over the entire market is the Fed which promised to release a position
paper on cryptocurrency
this summer.

The crypto market has been experiencing weakness after reaching highs earlier this year. All of the recent news may have turned the negative trend around.

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Sources:

https://www.cityam.com/amazon-definitely-lining-up-bitcoin-payments-and-token-confirms-insider/

https://www.amazon.jobs/en/jobs/1644513/digital-currency-and-blockchain-product-lead

 

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B-Word Conference Launches Offensive on Behalf of Bitcoin



High Profile Bitcoin Event Could Put Cryptos Back on Track

 

Concerns facing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to mount. Yesterday the New Jersey’s Bureau of Securities issued a cease and desist order against the company BlockFi for paying interest on crypto balances. China has insured reduced transactions within its borders by recently banning financial institutions from dealing in cryptocurrencies. The country has also forced Bitcoin miners to suspend operations. Britain’s financial regulator recently said one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, cannot conduct any unregulated activity and issued a warning to consumers about the platform. Elsewhere, although the stated reasons differ, the trend is to slow the adoption of cryptocurrencies by the public. Environmental issues became the topic of conversation in May as Tesla decided to halt purchases of their products through Bitcoin. They cited concerns over the use of fossil fuels for mining and transactions. Michael Burry who is renowned for spotting trends to short, has also publicly gone cold on Bitcoin.

The A-Team at the B-Word Conference

Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, Cathie Wood, along with many top names in the crypto sphere, will take part today in an event that discusses embracing Bitcoin. The free event called The B-Word – How Institutions Can
Embrace Bitcoin
aims to “demystify and destigmatize mainstream narratives about Bitcoin.” It will feature pre-recorded
discussions
and a live discussion that includes Musk, Dorsey, and Ark.

Take-Away

This high-profile “ride to the rescue” could create a re-awareness of Bitcoin and crypto utility and create lift for the assets class that, in many cases, have lost half their value from earlier this year.

As a courtesy, we have provided a link for those who wish to learn more about what could be a market-moving event, The B-Word
Conference.

 

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Sources:

https://www.thebword.org/c/the-b-word

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrencies-china-crackdown-51624274385?modtag=djemBestOfTheWeb&mod=djem_b_Feature_7212021%2074145%20AM

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/financial-watchdog-orders-crypto-exchange-binance-stop-regulated-activities-uk-2021-06-27/

 

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When Was the Shortest Recession in Your Lifetime?


Image Credit: Lauri Sten (Flickr)


When Was the Shortest Recession in Your Lifetime?

 

The U.S. officially emerged from a recession in April 2020. After clarity, confidence, and leadership seemed to calm markets following the introduction of the novel coronavirus on our shores, the contraction ended within two months.  This officially makes it the shortest recession on record.

The announcement Monday (July 19, 2021) from the National Bureau of Economic Research also declares April as the official start of the recovery

The recession ended the country’s longest recorded economic expansion, which began in June 2009 and lasted 128 months, according to the bureau’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, the accepted arbiter of recession dates.

The group typically waits until a business cycle is well underway before declaring it has started.  It took more than a year to make official our most recent recessions duration.

 

 

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Will Inflation be Transitory or Persistent?


Image Credit: Autorentals.com (Flickr)


When Will Investors Know if Inflation is Persistent, Not Transitory?

 

Is today’s high rate of Inflation transitory or persistent? This is the question the talking heads on TV are telling us we should be asking. It’s important to investors and non-investors alike, so let’s take a look.  Some forecasters expect that the past three months of notable increases in CPI are not the start of a long-term trend, but instead, a hiccup that will be short-lived. This camp includes the Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Jerome Powell. Other commenters are reading the tea leaves with much more concern. In their view, a flood of government spending and cheap money for all will continue to pull prices up.

The Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) statistics released last week are only the third data point well above the Fed 2% target. These three consecutive reports neither confirm an inflation spiral or show a slowing of price growth. So, although we know prices have risen, there are no hard conclusions if that will continue. How can we use these and other numbers to make investment decisions, borrowing decisions, and even spending decisions in our daily lives?

 

 

The two opposing views are typical when looking at the economic outcome of most unknowns. They’ll say, “on the one hand this, on the other hand, that,” In this case, on the one hand, prices are high because of built-up demand and pandemic-related shortages that will abate, and on the other hand, prices will continue up as there is ongoing cheap money available to spend to fulfill wants and whims. And then discussions also include all the other considerations, the basis months for the inflation is the early stages of the lockdown, people out of work, the bond market hasn’t panicked, etc. Seeing into the future with so many economic variables is rarely clear. And when there is a level of certainty, markets move fast to gobble up opportunity.

What We Did Learn Last Week

As reported Thursday, on a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.9% for the biggest single-month increase since June 2008. The core data (stripping out volatile items such as food and energy) reported US inflation grew from 3.8% over the previous 12 months in May to 4.5% running 12 months in June.

This third dramatic and higher increase provides a reason to lean toward betting on persistent inflation. Even when pulling out some of the more volatile items, consumer prices still soared last month. This challenges the view of most Fed members and others that high inflation during the US recovery will be temporary; so far, for a full quarter of 2021, they have been wrong.

Inflation had been largely absent for over a decade. A so-called reflation mindset started to blossom earlier this year as economies started to recover from the pandemic and inflation ticked higher. Investors moved cash to various areas to try and capitalize on the expected trend. Reflation investments tend to include assets that benefit from faster economic growth, price pressures or higher yields. Equities tend to benefit while fixed-rate bonds suffer. Specifically, in the stock market, small caps and cyclical sectors such as banks and energy producers are where investors look to gain more exposure. This year it also includes cruise operators, airlines, rental car places, and other “reopening” trades.

The enthusiasm for the “reflation trade” is not as popular as it was in late Spring. Some data supports those making a case that the reopening trade contributed to inflation in an unsustainable way. Lumber and other building product prices have since come down quite a bit from their highs, and home improvement sales are slumping. One-third of the price increases in June were from previously owned car price increases (10.5% increase over the previous month). Surely used car price increases won’t continue after the semiconductor shortage sorts itself out.

The Federal Reserve is officially in the transitory camp. Its stance is that as pent-up demand is fulfilled, global supply shortages ease and demand scales back. Inflation, they expect, will then fall back into their target range. This stance by itself helps keep the bond market from a strong reaction to the inflation reports. The bond market is forward-looking, with inflation expectations as its primary driver.

 What to Look For

Starting every day knowing that we are not smarter than the overall market is a prudent mindset. It helps us keep our “bets” in check while we lean toward and overweight in one direction or another rather than go in deep and run the risk of being wrong. If inflation continues well above 2% annualized and the economy shows signs of shrinking, it would be taken as a problem sign for the “transitory” camp. Additionally, if the supply shortages and pent-up demand wane and prices continue to escalate, the transitory argument will fall apart completely. Conversely, if economic numbers come in strong and the inflation pace slows, the “persistent” argument begins to fall apart. This would be good news for investors. Last week the Commerce Department reported retail sales were up 0.6% for June. This was above expectations and well above the 1.7% decline in May. This strong economic number gives a little more rope to both the persistent and the transitory arguments in this forecasting “tug-of-war.”  

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Sources:

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

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CPI Could be Cause for Investors to Worry


Image Credit: Thomas Altfather Good (Flickr)


Inflation Confirms it is Running Well Ahead of Interest Rates

 

Inflation, as reported today (July 13), is running well ahead of interest rates available in the Treasury bond market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in June, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. This adds up to a 5.4 percent increase over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.9 percent in June (SA); up 4.5 percent over the year (NSA). The ten-year U.S. Treasury Note traded to yield 1.38% end-of-day yesterday.

June’s consumer-price index growth at 5.4% is the fastest pace of annual inflation in nearly 13 years. The growth is 0.9% on a month-over-month basis, the largest jump since 2008 and higher than expected.

 

 

If price increases don’t slow, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to back off of its promise to hold rates down. An increase in interest rates could halt the stock market’s bullish sentiment, throw cold water on real estate price growth, and cause the proposed multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure plan to cost taxpayers substantially more. It is also worth recognizing that the historically easy money and low interest rates have been a driver of dealmaking in private equity and venture capital, this could slow.

The official position taken by the Fed, which has been enough to keep the bond market stable is, the inflation numbers are transitory, primarily the result of shortages that will not last in the post-Covid economy. 

 

 

The July 13 report (June’s numbers) demonstrates what could be temporary. Used car prices and transportation services made up 76% of the increase in core CPI (ex-food and energy). Buying a car and traveling, it can be argued, are sudden shocks that will not last.

July CPI will be released on August 11. Register at no cost for Channelchek’s insights into markets, industries, companies, and the economy to stay on top of the no-nonsense information we provide.

 

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Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

 

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Lower Global Demand for Oil Could Mean Weaker Dollars


Image Credit: airpix (Flickr)


Add This to the List of Inflation Drivers

There are more than enough arguments suggesting that for the remainder of 2021, we will experience above-trend inflation. Tight labor markets, money supply growth, over stimulus, higher fuel prices, shortages, increased consumer demand, etc., pick one, or pick them all, most concede that this year will play out with price increases. Whether an inflationary trend continues deeper into the decade or even an upward price spiral is not knowable but worth watching and even hedging against. Based on some of the actions taken by world leaders, including those in Washington, higher long-term U.S. price growth and a weakening dollar may be unavoidable. Some of the actions that may drive prices higher are related to the future of energy; let’s explore.

Energy Policy

In a White House press briefing dated April 22, 2021, related to greenhouse gases, an announcement was made that read:

The United States has set a goal to reach 100 percent carbon
pollution-free electricity by 2035,
which can be achieved through multiple cost-effective pathways, each
resulting in meaningful emissions reductions in this decade. That means
good-paying jobs deploying carbon pollution-free electricity generating
resources, transmission, and energy storage and leveraging the carbon pollution-free
energy potential of power plants retrofitted with carbon capture and existing
nuclear, while ensuring those facilities meet robust and rigorous standards for
worker, public, environmental safety and environmental justice.”

Most of us were raised to care about the health of our planet and what we leave for the next generation; I certainly was. So, we can understand, even appreciate,  why important actions that take a long time to implement are made in advance of any projected “disaster.” Channelchek serves its readers by covering markets and economics, so reviewing one of the economic implications of reducing the demand for petroleum products serves our readership. The above announcement throws up at least two more red flags in the inflation department to consider.

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Inflation Drivers

The first red flag for American’s finances is easy to understand. The U.S. produced 91% of the oil it used in 2016 and was energy self-sufficient; America was actually able to export its excess local production by 2020. For the first time the U.S. managed to take complete control of its energy destiny. The decision has now been made to unwind what took so long to achieve and instead build solar panels, mine for minerals to create battery systems, and cover land to collect sunlight. This is paving the way for exciting investment opportunities, but in the short and medium-term, may lead to higher all-around costs. The White House announcement eludes to high-priced labor, the cost of electricity and everything that we consume that uses electricity in the manufacturing process will cost more to make. This higher cost of production will get passed to the buyers. Everything has a cost, one of the costs of this transition would be increased prices.

The second red flag is a bit more involved and begins in the 1970s. The ‘70s followed decades of the most comfortable and prosperous growth period in the countries history. However, the post-war (WWII) boom stopped abruptly when that decade began. It was a surprise and a shock to most.  Young adults who only knew growth and prosperity were suddenly asked to tighten their belts, put schools on austerity, and become two-income households for the first time.  A root cause was the country had halted backing dollars with gold (gold standard). The lack of backing caused a lack of confidence which helped drive prices up

The dollar was eventually shored up as it essentially found a new commodity to back it, this commodity was oil. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia reached a deal to price the sale of crude oil throughout the globe in U.S. dollars. Whether a U.S. company is involved in the transaction, or even Saudi Arabia, the standard currency around the world is and has been U.S. dollars. The name given to this is petrodollars. The world has been on this petrodollar system for 50 years, and it has had the effect of creating worldwide demand for the U.S. currency. It can be said with certainty that among the reasons the U.S. enjoys the high of a living standard it does is because our dollar is strong. It is strong because of faith in our economy and because petroleum can’t be bought around the globe without U.S. dollars. This produces a demand, unlike any other currency experiences.

The plan outlined by the White House above has the U.S. electricity generating ability free of carbon emissions by 2035. The plan in the U.S. and Europe for electric vehicles are just as aggressive. What is likely to happen to the value of U.S. dollars these countries successfully free themselves from requiring oil? Even if it’s only a small percentage of current output? Simply put, The U.S. dollar will become less in demand, not as important; it won’t be as strongly backed any longer. This would put downward pressure on its value. As U.S. dollars go down, they won’t buy as much – dollar-based costs for almost everything imported could rise.

Take-Away

If countries around the globe are successful in rebuilding energy systems, there will be lucrative investment opportunities that massive change brings. There will also be many hurdles as there are costs to everything. One of those costs could be a declining dollar. A strong dollar has helped Americans afford their above-average living standards; the challenge could become retaining those standards in the face of change, and minimizing inflation.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

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Sources:

White House Fact Sheet

Paying for Infrastructure Spending


Image credit: Jazz Guy (Flickr)


The Gas Tax’s History Shows How Hard it is to Fund Infrastructure Spending

 

As the Biden administration and Republicans negotiate a possible infrastructure spending package, how to pay for it has been a key sticking point.

President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress want to raise taxes on the rich, while some Republicans have been pushing for an increase in the gas tax – which would be the first in 28 years. A bipartisan group of senators recently crafted a compromise bill that would pay for just under US$1 trillion in spending on rail, roads and bridges over five years in part by indexing the gas tax to inflation. Democrats call this regressive because it would raise taxes on working Americans.

As the director of energy studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, I’ve studied both taxes on energy and how the government spends money on infrastructure.

Throughout the gas tax’s controversial history, leaders have frequently called upon this revenue source when serious infrastructure investment is needed.

The First 40 Years

This resilient levy is a major source of U.S. funding for roads and transit today. It originated during the Great Depression as a “temporary” penny-per-gallon gasoline tax. At the time, a gallon cost about 18 cents, or about $2.90 in 2021 dollars.

As he signed the Revenue Act of 1932 into law, President Herbert Hoover lauded “the willingness of our people to accept this added burden in these times in order impregnably to establish the credit of the federal government.”

 

 

The original gas tax, an emergency measure intended to bolster the budget and fund national defense spending, not to meet transportation needs, was slated to expire in 1933. Instead, persistent budget deficits throughout the New Deal and World War II kept it in force throughout Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration over the objections of the oil, automotive and travel industries. It became a permanent 1.5-cent levy in 1941.

Multiple efforts to do away with the gas tax ever since have failed.

For example, Congress again scheduled the tax’s repeal in 1951 when it increased it to 2 cents as a source of revenue related to the Korean War. Instead, lawmakers agreed to keep the tax on the books to help pay for one of President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s top priorities, the national interstate highway system.

In 1956 the levy rose once more, to 3 cents, when Americans were paying about 30 cents for a gallon of gas. At the same time, the government established the Highway Trust Fund to use the gas tax revenue to pay for building and maintaining the new interstates.

The tax rose to 4 cents per gallon in 1959 and froze at that level for more than two decades.

Running on Empty

Gas tax revenue stopped keeping up with the expenses it was supposed to cover in the early 1970s following a severe bout of inflation and OPEC’s oil embargo. U.S. gas prices soared from about 36 cents per gallon in 1972 to $1.31 in 1981.

Responding to what members of both major political parties saw as a transportation infrastructure crisis, Congress more than doubled the tax to 9 cents per gallon as part of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. The same law split the Highway Trust Fund and its revenue stream into two parts: The first 8 cents would finance roadwork while the other penny would finance mass transit projects.

This hike may have struck drivers as a sharp increase, but public spending on transportation infrastructure would continue to fall as a percentage of all outlays.

In 1984, Congress increased spending on highways by funneling proceeds from fines and other penalties that businesses pay for safety violations, such as failing to label hazardous materials or forcing drivers to work too many hours in a row.

Congress boosted the tax twice more in the 1990s but primarily to reduce the then-ballooning federal deficit. Only half of a 5-cent increase in 1990 went to highways and transit, while a 4.3-cent lift three years later went entirely to lowering the deficit.

By 1997, the government had redirected all gas tax revenue reserved for deficit reduction to the Highway Trust Fund, where it still flows today.

Along the way, other federal fuel taxes arose, including a 24.4-cent-per-gallon diesel tax and taxes on methanol and compressed natural gas. And state fuel taxes, which in most cases began before the federal gas tax, range from as low as 8.95 cents per gallon in Alaska to as high as 57.6 cents per gallon in Pennsylvania.

 

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Making Do

Since 1993, when the federal gas tax was first parked at 18.4 cents, inflation and rising construction costs have eroded its effectiveness as a transportation-related revenue source. In addition, U.S. vehicles have grown more fuel-efficient overall – which means Americans use less fuel for every mile they drive.

As a result, highway and transit spending has significantly outpaced the revenue collected from the gas tax and other sources. Since 2008, the government has transferred over $80 billion to the fund that it had to take from other sources.

But it’s still not enough. The American Society of Civil Engineers, which gives U.S. infrastructure a C-minus, is calling on the government and private sector to increase spending on roads and bridges by at least $2.5 trillion within a decade.

While it’s true the gas tax may be regressive because lower-income people pay the same rate as those who earn higher incomes, there are still advantages to this tax.

For one thing, it follows the “user pays” principle of providing government services. Under this principle, the people using the roads are held responsible for paying for their upkeep. As the number of motorists using electric vehicles increases, however, this may become less true over time.

Further, it would also create an incentive to at least marginally decrease the use of fossil fuels, accomplishing another goal of the administration.

Finally, the government could always subsidize the tax for the poor, perhaps through annual lump-sum payments, making it less regressive.

Clearly, U.S. infrastructure is in dire need of upgrading and investment. At the end of the day, Americans will pay for it one way or another – whether in taxes or through costs of unsafe and inadequate infrastructure, including in lost lives. How the government pays for investment may matter less than that it finally does it.

 

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from
academic experts. It was originally written in French by
Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of Florida.

 

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How Rising Rates Could Make Brokers Like Robinhood More Profitable



No-Cost Brokers Like Robinhood May be the Big Winners with Rising Rates

 

Robinhood’s IPO is expected to happen in July. The timing would seem to be ideal. Much of the mishaps
with meme stock’s
orders have been forgotten or forgiven, and business growth which far outpaced its envious rivals in 2020, widened the gap even further in 2021. The company is hitting on all cylinders and likely to close during a period when money has been readily flowing into new public deals. As if Robinhood’s timing didn’t already have the “perfect storm” ingredients to do well, yesterday’s Fed announcement on interest rate policy could cause their going public to fetch even more.

 

 

Robinhood and Interest Rates

As we’ve learned, online “low-touch” brokerage firms don’t need to charge per transaction to make money. Taken directly from the Robinhood blog, this is how they earn the bulk of their income: Rebates from market makers and trading venues – Robinhood Gold, Stock loan – Income generated from cash – Cash
Management.
The last three they mention; Stock loan, income from cash balances, and cash management, are likely to rise when rates increase. The current low rate environment, although it may be ideal for attracting customers to trade, hasn’t been ideal to maximize revenue on those accounts. Should rates rise sooner rather than later, particularly if it occurs with a steeper yield curve, and nothing else changes, businesses like Robinhood, Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and others will experience wider margins and can collect from their business customers higher rates.

Stock Loan Stock loan, or securities lending is the practice of using stocks (or bonds) that accounts are long as a means for other customers to short securities to make good delivery on their sale. Behind the scenes, the broker executing the transaction locates a long position and, with the right agreements in place, “borrows” the securities. The broker lending the securities earns an interest rate that will rise as rates rise. This bodes well for Robinhood and other brokers that do a large number of stock loan transactions.

Cash Balances It’s easy to understand how brokers make money on your cash balances. Robinhood’s website explains it like this: “Robinhood Securities generates income on uninvested cash that isn’t swept to the Cash Management network of program banks, primarily by depositing this cash in interest-bearing bank accounts.” With rates near zero, the next move by the Fed could double earnings on short-term deposits.  As cost-free balances begin to earn more with no extra effort, revenue from this important source will immediately make an impact.

Cash Management The debit card held by many Robinhood customers is part of the companies Cash Management service. This is also a source of  revenue that may benefit if fees rise as rates rise. Mastercard® International Incorporated receives an interchange fee that is passed directly to Robinhood Financial.  According to their website, Robinhood Securities and Robinhood Financial also receive fees from banks for sweeping funds to them.

 

Outcome of the June FOMC Meeting

In an outcome that suggests higher U.S. interest rates sooner than originally planned from the Fed, its “dot plot chart” showed 11 of 18 officials expect at least two rate hikes in 2023. In March, only seven expected one hike. Seven officials now see the first hike next year, up from four in March. This is a dramatic change in expectations from those that set interest rate policy.

Just as importantly, Chairman Powell announced the Fed held its first discussion about slowing down its bond purchases. In addition to targeting  0-.25% overnight rates, the Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. Slower bond purchases will allow rates beyond overnight maturity to move up as they’ll need to find other (non-Fed) owners.

 

Take-Away

Robinhood filed for a confidential IPO in March. The securities broker has not made the details of the offering public yet. It has raised $5.6 billion from private investors and was reportedly valued at $40 billion at its funding round in February. The potential for brokerage firms that earn a large part of their income on cash balances, securities lending, and other interest-rate-sensitive businesses are likely beneficiaries of any upward movement in rates over the coming years. As rates have been very low, a small change could have a large impact.

 In April Coinbase (COIN) went public and its value shot to $86 billion. This summer Robinhood, with the advantage of a swelling account base, money readily flowing into large and small public offerings, the ability to offer part of the IPO to customers, and a positive interest rate backdrop, could generate a very strong result.

 

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Sources:

https://blog.robinhood.com/

https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/how-robinhood-makes-money/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210616a.htm

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/news-and-analysis/will-the-robinhood-ipo-attract-investors

https://apnews.com/article/coinbase-stock-ipo-price-c3b802074ce4349b5bccf9ba43022800

 

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The Benefits of DeFi



Decentralized Finance, Is It The Future?

 

For the last couple of years, DeFi has been the hottest topic in both FinTech and crypto, with many investors and developers believing it to be the future of finance. But what exactly is DeFi, and what makes it so significant?

 

What is DeFi?

DeFi, or “decentralized finance,” is a term used to describe any financial tool that eliminates the need for a centralized body. This means that there are no middlemen, third parties, or intermediaries involved. While this might not sound like much, the ability to cut out centralized bodies from traditional financial instruments such as loans and bonds has never happened before in economic history. DeFi allows people to trade, lend, borrow and manage their money in a way that provides complete independence. With DeFi, no institutions or organizations handle or control your money, meaning that ownership always stays with you, creating a more unrestricted financial experience.

DeFi technology is extremely new, having existed for less than ten years. The first DeFi projects to gain recognition were MakerDAO and Bancor, both released in 2017, they offered a lending platform that functioned without any centralized bodies whatsoever.

 

No More Third Parties

This is all made possible through blockchain technology. Blockchains allow people to manage their money securely without placing trust in any particular body or institution. Instead of putting your faith in a bank, credit card processor (like VISA), or payment gateway (like PayPal or Western Union), you can rely solely on the blockchain. This is a much safer option, as the code used to create most blockchains is open-source, which means anybody can view it. If anything were malicious or unsafe in the code, it would more than likely get picked up by the programming community. 

When you use third parties, you have to place your trust in that entity’s integrity, but even the most well-known financial companies have experienced issues. There is no centralized economic body that hasn’t had to deal with some scandal in the past. But that problem is negated by Decentralized Finance.

 

 

Smart contracts play a massive role in DeFi. A smart contract is a computer-generated contract that executes upon being added to the blockchain. Smart contracts allow people to transfer value to one another under certain conditions, agreed upon by the parties involved, which are then enforced by the blockchain (rather than by a centralized body like a bank or broker).

 

Why Should You Care About DeFi?

Despite it being such a simple idea (engaging with finance without third parties), it has never entirely existed before. This is the first time in history where people can access traditional financial instruments (such as loans, bonds, and trading capabilities) without needing an intermediary, making DeFi perhaps the most revolutionary financial technology to happen in the last century.

Here are the primary benefits it offers:

 

Financial Control

When using DeFi services, you keep control of your money. Instead of handing your money over to an organization that you do not trust, you deal with the blockchain: an open, fully automated, and transparent network. When working with a centralized body, you have to place a great deal of faith in them, hoping they will take care of your money and that they have your best interests at heart. But with DeFi, you do not have to rely on faith because you have full knowledge of the inner workings of the blockchain and smart contracts you are using.

Non-Invasive

DeFi services are naturally less invasive than centralized financial tools (or “CeFi”). For instance, if you were to take out a traditional CeFi loan, you would likely have to provide the centralized body with proof of identity, bank statements and possibly even undergo a background or credit check. Not only would you hand your money to them as collateral, but you would also hand over extremely sensitive data. 

However, if you were to take out a DeFi loan, you would not have to do any of this. With DeFi, nobody needs to see sensitive documents like this because no centralized body could assess or evaluate them. Everything happens via automation, so there is no requirement to pry. This makes DeFi a much more accessible and comfortable experience. Many people (rightfully) feel uncomfortable about handing over personal information to a corporation like a bank or lending provider.

 

Fairness

Considering how DeFi allows people to exchange and handle money without an intermediary, it is significantly fairer. It means that fees are lower, as there is no third party to profit from people’s financial activity. It also gives more people access to financial instruments. Many people worldwide cannot engage with CeFi because they do not have official documentation or because institutions choose to ignore them. For instance, there are approximately 2 billion unbanked people, meaning they cannot access traditional CeFi services. These financial services are extremely useful for modern living, and the fact that so many people have been locked out from engaging in them is deeply unfair, however with DeFi, this all changes. DeFi allows more people to gain financial stability and take control of their lives. 

DeFi is a game-changing technology in both crypto and FinTech, as it allows for the creation of projects and ecosystems that run without any third parties. They let people engage with traditional financial tools without relying on institutions and intermediaries, giving people more freedom and control over their economic lives. They also offer unbanked access to loans, bonds, and trading capabilities, providing them with life-changing financial instruments that many people often take for granted. Not only does DeFi have the potential to improve people’s lives for the better, but it has the potential to change the way contemporary finance is run as a whole. For the first time, centralized financial bodies are becoming obsolete, affecting the economic landscape in unimaginable ways. 

 

This article is republished with permission from the Vertex Markets Knowledge Center. Vertex uses AI to make B2B introductions providing a business networking site free from guesswork as to where the more valuable interactions are found.

 

 

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Trimmed PCE Inflation vs the PCE Deflator



The PCE Deflator and the Trimmed PCE Inflation Rate Tell Different Stories

 

Covering April prices, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released another widely followed core inflation measure on Friday. Many found it extra concerning. The reason the PCE Deflator received increased attention is that it’s generally the more stable measure and known as the one the Fed prefers (over CPI). It indicated price growth well above the Fed targeted 2% pace. A third inflation measure was also released Friday. Each month the Dallas Fed adjusts the PCE numbers to report this other inflation measure. This additional report rarely receives any investor attention. But, it is worth visiting in that it allows assumptions about what is happening below the economic surface, including consumers’ reaction to prices.

Background

The Fed has said it views a 2% annual increase in inflation as consistent with its mandates of stable prices and maximum employment.  The report on April CPI earlier this month indicated a pace, (for the month) well in excess of the target. One month is not a trend, and April certainly has its share of “one-off” issues, including basing growth from April 2020, which printed negative 0.8% with the lockdowns.  On Friday, the market couldn’t take much comfort in the PCE Deflator which also could indicate the Fed may have overshot in stimulating the economy. This one April number is not as easy to explain away in that it’s a broader gauge that is less volatile, and generally runs below the CPI average.

 

PCE Price Deflator

The PCEPI is the Federal Reserve Bank’s favored inflation gauge to help them direct policy. This is according to their own guidance. The reason given is that it is a broader gauge of prices than the basket of goods found in CPI.

 

 

The graph above shows the PCEPI charted against CPI-U for the past 20 years. It’s clear that CPI (red) is much more volatile, and in any given month may change dramatically which is not always the beginning of a change in price growth. By comparison, the numbers based on PCE include a broader base of goods. It also will report net of food and energy, because these often experience large shifts for reasons unrelated to economic price pressures (weather, war, politics, etc.).

 

The FOMC carefully considered both indexes when evaluating which metric to target and concluded that PCE inflation is the better measure. – Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis

 

On Friday (May 28), PCEPI showed an annualized rate of inflation of 7.5%, and 8.3% ex-food and energy. This is a spike of the less volatile inflation measure and offers little consolation to those concerned with the higher interest rates that inflation promotes.

 

The Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

From the BEA data, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank is responsible for calculating a monthly set of numbers. Their analysis, The Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate, is an alternative measure of core inflation using PCE.

The Dallas Fed segments off the different goods and services based on price rise and looks at how much they have risen or fallen, then it calculates the actual consumption of those products. So the Fed weights the data based on consumption. One reason for this is it shows that substitutions limit the level of higher prices actually paid by households. If, for example, the price of oranges rise by 6%, while apple prices remain the same, if half the consumers substitute apples for oranges, the experienced household inflation would be overstated if not accounting for the reduced purchases of oranges and increased purchase of zero inflation apples. 

 

 

The above Trimmed Mean PCE chart covers the same 20 year period as the top chart. We can see by this alternative measure that inflation is not impacting households in a way that should concern policymakers. In fact, the April numbers shown below indicate a six-month annualized inflation of 1.8%, compared with the PCE Deflator at 4.3%.  These are seemingly two different stories.

 

 Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas

 

Which is Correct?

Giving more weight to one or the other inflation measures would have led to rather different assessments of appropriate policy. The Fed prefers PCEPI over CPI-U for the same reason the S&P 500 is preferred by investors over the Dow 30 as a gauge of stock market movement. An index limited to 30 industrial stocks is not as inclusive as the index that includes 500 of the highest capitalized public companies. When comparing the PCEPI and its derivative Trimmed PCE Inflation, they both need to be viewed knowing what they demonstrate. The actual experienced cost of living change is best reflected in the Dallas Fed number (Trimmed), while economic price pressure is best reflected in the BEA number (PCEPI).

Take-Away

Perception, and expectations of future perception, drive stock prices more than the accuracy and precision of any measure of economic health. One thing for equity investors to keep an eye on, is if the bond market begins to lose faith in tame inflation or the Fed’s ability to keep an even keel, the expectations of equity investors will lean toward lightening up positions. If the bond market doesn’t react by selling off (higher rates), then higher prices of some products should do no more than cause sector rotation within the markets to companies benefiting – not unlike buying apples when you think oranges are priced too high.

 

Suggested Reading:

Is Inflation Going to Hurt Stocks?

Real Estate Risks to the Stock Market Who Benefits from The Americas Jobs Plan?



Who Benefits from The Americas Jobs Plan?

Most Watched Channelchek C-Suite Interviews of 2020

 

Sources:

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/july-2013/cpi-vs-pce-inflation–choosing-a-standard-measure

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0528.aspx

 

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Higher Vaccinated States Have Experienced Less Foot Traffic


image credit: OnTheRoxxBand


Are Vaccinated People Spending Differently than those not Vaccinated?

 

With over 20% of the U.S. now having received Covid shots (through April 2021), some interesting statistics have been collected on consumer behavior. There is a slow return to pre-Covid era consumer behavior; this suggests industries impacted most by the quarantines still have much more potential. It also reveals that despite the expectations that the vaccine would encourage many people to be out among others for live music, gym workouts, dining, etc., those that are more likely to be out in crowds are those that have not been vaccinated. This reaction has been as hard to predict as everything else over the past year.

 

Vaccinated Behavior vs. Unvaccinated

According to an April survey by Cardify, the most likely consumers to be out at gyms, restaurants, salons, and entertainment venues are those that have not been vaccinated and don’t plan on getting one. As an explanation as to why those that have received immunities aren’t as likely to be out, Derrick Fung, CEO of Cardify said, vaccinated consumers are “proceeding with cautious optimism.” The vaccinated are slow to behave as they did pre-Covid and are now less comfortable being around large crowds of people.

The Cardify survey data is confirmed by other research conducted by Earnest Research (ER). ER looked at consumer spending and foot traffic across the most and least vaccinated states, along with how well newly acquired customers during COVID have been retained across retailers.

The second report comes to the same conclusion. The vaccine rollouts have not been the big driver of spending outside the home that was expected. Digging deeper to see what is happening, it’s clear the least vaccinated states have experienced the most spending compared to the pre-Covid era. And, states having the most vaccinated have not performed.

For example, Georgia has had the slowest vaccine rollout with just 16% of its population having been “jabbed,” yet the state continues to be an outperformer in total consumer spending and traffic. Massachusetts is the most vaccinated state, with more than 25% of its population having received the precaution, and it is struggling to increase in-person commerce.

 

Source: earnestresearch.com

 

Spending

As demonstrated in the chart above, Massachusetts, with its above-average vaccination rate, has seen its year-on-year spending sitting well below a year earlier. The highest performer Georgia tops the rate of the data points even when Massachusetts is removed from the 25% or greater category. The measure of performance of states with less than 25% inoculated with Georgia removed is still much closer to year-ago traffic than the high vaccine state of Massachusetts. One explanation for the data running counter to what one may have expected is the states with the most in-person traffic are those that had fewer restrictions over the past year. Their citizenry has less re-adaption anxiety and is not uncomfortable mixing with strangers.

Curiously, the states with higher vaccination rates outperformed in the middle of 2020, a lead that narrowed at the end of the year before January’s stimulus-driven uptick and February’s post-stimulus drop. Early March saw an acceleration across all states but without any clear signs of outperformance in the most vaccinated states.

 

Take-Away

Vaccines are not the main economic driver. When it comes to people leaving the perceived protection of their homes to enjoy a show, have their haircut, or enjoy a prepared meal out. What they have become accustomed to may be more telling. For investors, it shows that there is much more potential for increased retail sales for the Covid-recovery stocks such as airlines, restaurants, and gyms. At no place in either the Cardify survey or the Earnest Research report was there a suggestion that the more cautious vaccinated populations would not eventually change over time.

 

Suggested Reading:

Is Inflation Going to Hurt Stocks?

Long Term Retirement Money and Fledgling Companies



Is it Smart to Avoid Brokers that Sell Order Flow?

Are Meme Stocks Improving Flawed Markets?

 

Sources:

https://www.earnestresearch.com/insights/

https://www.cardify.ai/

 

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Inflations Impact on Stocks Four Scenarios


image credit: Paul Boudreau (Flickr) - Inverted from Original


Four Inflation Growth Possibilities and their Impact on Stocks

 

One data point does not make a trend. Yet, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) posted a 0.08% increase of the most-watched inflation measure (CPI-U), debates exploded over whether we’re in a dangerous upward trend. If you listen close, they’re not two-sided debates. In my own discussions and observations, I count four positions on the important state-of-inflation question.

 

Implications of Each Position

Each position has a different implication. There are some that expect the Fed will backtrack significantly on their “low rates for years” language and quickly take the proverbial punch bowl away. These are the voices saying the Fed will notch up rates soon. Another contingent that also argues rates are going up suggests the Fed now has little control. They agree that rates are rising, but they think it will be market-driven and completely outside of intended monetary policy. Then there are those who believe rates will stay down in much the same way we have experienced low rates for the past 12 months – no change.  A fourth voice in the debate believes inflation levels will not stay too high, but the Fed would quickly change course if they do.  

 All four of these have different ramifications for the stock market. Should rates rise or be pushed up, money would be pulled out of the equity markets and reallocated to the more predictable returns of fixed income securities. The next inflation data release is scheduled for June 13; this will either begin to confirm or disprove a trend. Equity market investors should keep an eye on which of the four scenarios are unfolding.  Here’s why: In two of the four different scenarios rates rise, however, each is nuanced and could have different effects on stocks. Another two distinct scenarios are where rates stay near current levels, they could also lead to different paths for equity markets.  

 

Low Inflation Contained – Scenario #1

Let’s start with the scenario, of low inflation. Those supporting this forecast see modest price growth as deeply ingrained in economic activity, they believe sharper increases simply won’t happen. They don’t foresee overheating even with the promised 0.00-0.25%  interest rates for the next three years. Those embracing this scenario take reassurance that the CPI release that prompted the debate, was clouded by base effects and supply bottlenecks, both of which could be a short-term occurrence.

 

Base Effect:

The impact of an increase in the price level (i.e. previous year’s inflation) over the corresponding rise in price levels in the current year.  If the inflation rate was low in the same period last year, then even a small increase in the price index will produce a high rate of inflation in the current year.

 

The supporters of this idea expect “business as usual.” And as we have learned, “usual” means we’ve had cheap money and low rates with no problem – inflation isn’t a concern, the results will continue to be a strong stock market that will march upward. This is the most bullish scenario for stocks (and bond prices).

 

Fed Will Fall Behind – Scenario #2

 Let’s look at the other extreme inserted here as scenario two. These folks view the Fed as having an overly dovish bias that will ignore the warning signs until it’s too late. Reeling inflation in, after it takes hold, is more difficult than maintaining stability by staying ahead of it. They are very concerned the Fed is already behind. Under this scenario the Fed loses control, long-term bond yields soar as bond investors require compensation (yields) above the expected level of purchasing-power erosion.  The Fed has been able to keep control over short-term rates, but they can lose the ability to impact the longer maturities out on the yield curve. In fact, keeping the short end anchored near zero could spook bond buyers even more.

 

Dovish:

The Fed’s tone of Fed monetary policy and position toward inflation is dovish if it leans more toward inflation is not a problem so economic growth is a higher priority. When the Fed is dovish, they are likely to keep rates low.

The opposite is when the Fed is looking to subdue growth to maintain an inflation target, it is called hawkish.

 

Under this second scenario, stocks react by selling off in many sectors. This is because borrowing costs of businesses rise, importers will have to pay more for their goods, costs they may not be able to fully pass on to customers, dividend-paying stocks will take a hit as competition intensifies with coupon levels paid on bonds. Any poor performance from equities could drive even more money out and into bonds and insured deposits. 

 

Fed too Slow on the Draw – Scenario #3

 In a third scenario, there are those who expect the Fed to respond to a climb in inflation pressures, but not in time. These Fed-watchers, pundits, and everyday investors see the central bank as more committed to their forward guidance on rates than to their other pledge to act if core prices stay above their 2% target. My former colleague, ex-Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, Bill Dudley, put himself firmly in that group. In a recent Bloomberg interview, he suggested that the Fed would start chasing inflation’s tail after it ran away and that we would then need much higher nominal rates to get real rates to the levels that would cool growth and inflation pressures. His experienced projection is that policy rates could top 4%.

 

BLS CPI Data Release Dates

June 2021 Jul. 13, 2021 08:30 AM
July 2021 Aug. 11, 2021 08:30 AM
August 2021 Sep. 14, 2021 08:30 AM
September 2021 Oct. 13, 2021 08:30 AM
October 2021 Nov. 10, 2021 08:30 AM
November 2021 Dec. 10, 2021 08:30 AM

 

This scenario would likely cause an erratic stock market. Some days traders and other participants may take solace over the Fed’s occasional calming words and then markets could spike up on other days as it gets spooked by numbers suggesting economic overheating was ignored. This push and pull create opportunities for traders that do better with volatility, most investors prefer clearly trending markets.

 

The Fed’s Got This – Scenario #4

Janet Yellen, who also has some insight into what goes on behind closed doors at FOMC meetings, hasn’t gone against the official stance, which says that the mega-stimulus meant to encourage full employment won’t push inflation past 2% for any sustained period.  She has however noted that if the stimulus is overdone, the Fed can simply start the ball rolling on a gradual climb in rates to preempt a serious overshoot.

This may sound like the first scenario, but in that scenario, the policy action was too late. This last scenario suggests the Fed can and will change if it needs to and everything will turn out fine.

Confidence and trust are important for investors. Should this trust be established and maintained, even in the face of rising inflation and rates, markets will be orderly as investors won’t expect a return to the inflation of the ’70s. Perhaps investors would experience equity indices growing along the more historical trend line.

 

Take-Away

Anyone who says they know the market is going to have an inevitable outcome may not be worth listening to. Professional money managers form scenario analysis and try to handicap the certainty of each outcome when allocating risk positions. Investors at all levels should view what the possibilities are and observe to see which are unfolding, shifting allocations in response.

We have had a very transparent Fed under Bernanke, Yellen, and the current Chair Powell. It has, in my observation, done everything that has been promised as it relates to conducting policy.  One tool the Fed has used consistently since 2009 is the incredible power of their telling the market exactly what their plans are. Promising the markets, they will keep rates very low through next year has acted to keep bond investors from betting against the Fed’s word. Those who have bet against the Fed over the past ten-plus years have probably had bad outcomes. One question that may never be answered is: if the Fed does need to act to raise short-term rates in advance of next year, and they do act, will they lose the power of their promise?

I enjoy hearing from readers; feel free to comment directly to my email by clicking on my name below.

 

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading

The Sustainability of Growing Margin Debt

Is Inflation Going to Hurt Stocks?



Should Stock Market Investors Worry About Inflation?

Money Supply is Like Caffeine for Stocks

 

Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

https://www.fincash.com/l/basics/base-effect

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-04-12/dudley-says-fed-will-be-much-slower-to-tighten-video

https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-says-interest-rates-may-have-to-rise-to-keep-economy-from-overheating-11620151101#:~:text=Yellen%20told%20The%20Wall%20Street,the%20coming%20months%20will%20subside

 

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Inflation’s Impact on Stocks, Four Scenarios


image credit: Paul Boudreau (Flickr) - Inverted from Original


Four Inflation Growth Possibilities and their Impact on Stocks

 

One data point does not make a trend. Yet, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) posted a 0.08% increase of the most-watched inflation measure (CPI-U), debates exploded over whether we’re in a dangerous upward trend. If you listen close, they’re not two-sided debates. In my own discussions and observations, I count four positions on the important state-of-inflation question.

 

Implications of Each Position

Each position has a different implication. There are some that expect the Fed will backtrack significantly on their “low rates for years” language and quickly take the proverbial punch bowl away. These are the voices saying the Fed will notch up rates soon. Another contingent that also argues rates are going up suggests the Fed now has little control. They agree that rates are rising, but they think it will be market-driven and completely outside of intended monetary policy. Then there are those who believe rates will stay down in much the same way we have experienced low rates for the past 12 months – no change.  A fourth voice in the debate believes inflation levels will not stay too high, but the Fed would quickly change course if they do.  

 All four of these have different ramifications for the stock market. Should rates rise or be pushed up, money would be pulled out of the equity markets and reallocated to the more predictable returns of fixed income securities. The next inflation data release is scheduled for June 13; this will either begin to confirm or disprove a trend. Equity market investors should keep an eye on which of the four scenarios are unfolding.  Here’s why: In two of the four different scenarios rates rise, however, each is nuanced and could have different effects on stocks. Another two distinct scenarios are where rates stay near current levels, they could also lead to different paths for equity markets.  

 

Low Inflation Contained – Scenario #1

Let’s start with the scenario, of low inflation. Those supporting this forecast see modest price growth as deeply ingrained in economic activity, they believe sharper increases simply won’t happen. They don’t foresee overheating even with the promised 0.00-0.25%  interest rates for the next three years. Those embracing this scenario take reassurance that the CPI release that prompted the debate, was clouded by base effects and supply bottlenecks, both of which could be a short-term occurrence.

 

Base Effect:

The impact of an increase in the price level (i.e. previous year’s inflation) over the corresponding rise in price levels in the current year.  If the inflation rate was low in the same period last year, then even a small increase in the price index will produce a high rate of inflation in the current year.

 

The supporters of this idea expect “business as usual.” And as we have learned, “usual” means we’ve had cheap money and low rates with no problem – inflation isn’t a concern, the results will continue to be a strong stock market that will march upward. This is the most bullish scenario for stocks (and bond prices).

 

Fed Will Fall Behind – Scenario #2

 Let’s look at the other extreme inserted here as scenario two. These folks view the Fed as having an overly dovish bias that will ignore the warning signs until it’s too late. Reeling inflation in, after it takes hold, is more difficult than maintaining stability by staying ahead of it. They are very concerned the Fed is already behind. Under this scenario the Fed loses control, long-term bond yields soar as bond investors require compensation (yields) above the expected level of purchasing-power erosion.  The Fed has been able to keep control over short-term rates, but they can lose the ability to impact the longer maturities out on the yield curve. In fact, keeping the short end anchored near zero could spook bond buyers even more.

 

Dovish:

The Fed’s tone of Fed monetary policy and position toward inflation is dovish if it leans more toward inflation is not a problem so economic growth is a higher priority. When the Fed is dovish, they are likely to keep rates low.

The opposite is when the Fed is looking to subdue growth to maintain an inflation target, it is called hawkish.

 

Under this second scenario, stocks react by selling off in many sectors. This is because borrowing costs of businesses rise, importers will have to pay more for their goods, costs they may not be able to fully pass on to customers, dividend-paying stocks will take a hit as competition intensifies with coupon levels paid on bonds. Any poor performance from equities could drive even more money out and into bonds and insured deposits. 

 

Fed too Slow on the Draw – Scenario #3

 In a third scenario, there are those who expect the Fed to respond to a climb in inflation pressures, but not in time. These Fed-watchers, pundits, and everyday investors see the central bank as more committed to their forward guidance on rates than to their other pledge to act if core prices stay above their 2% target. My former colleague, ex-Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, Bill Dudley, put himself firmly in that group. In a recent Bloomberg interview, he suggested that the Fed would start chasing inflation’s tail after it ran away and that we would then need much higher nominal rates to get real rates to the levels that would cool growth and inflation pressures. His experienced projection is that policy rates could top 4%.

 

BLS CPI Data Release Dates

June 2021 Jul. 13, 2021 08:30 AM
July 2021 Aug. 11, 2021 08:30 AM
August 2021 Sep. 14, 2021 08:30 AM
September 2021 Oct. 13, 2021 08:30 AM
October 2021 Nov. 10, 2021 08:30 AM
November 2021 Dec. 10, 2021 08:30 AM

 

This scenario would likely cause an erratic stock market. Some days traders and other participants may take solace over the Fed’s occasional calming words and then markets could spike up on other days as it gets spooked by numbers suggesting economic overheating was ignored. This push and pull create opportunities for traders that do better with volatility, most investors prefer clearly trending markets.

 

The Fed’s Got This – Scenario #4

Janet Yellen, who also has some insight into what goes on behind closed doors at FOMC meetings, hasn’t gone against the official stance, which says that the mega-stimulus meant to encourage full employment won’t push inflation past 2% for any sustained period.  She has however noted that if the stimulus is overdone, the Fed can simply start the ball rolling on a gradual climb in rates to preempt a serious overshoot.

This may sound like the first scenario, but in that scenario, the policy action was too late. This last scenario suggests the Fed can and will change if it needs to and everything will turn out fine.

Confidence and trust are important for investors. Should this trust be established and maintained, even in the face of rising inflation and rates, markets will be orderly as investors won’t expect a return to the inflation of the ’70s. Perhaps investors would experience equity indices growing along the more historical trend line.

 

Take-Away

Anyone who says they know the market is going to have an inevitable outcome may not be worth listening to. Professional money managers form scenario analysis and try to handicap the certainty of each outcome when allocating risk positions. Investors at all levels should view what the possibilities are and observe to see which are unfolding, shifting allocations in response.

We have had a very transparent Fed under Bernanke, Yellen, and the current Chair Powell. It has, in my observation, done everything that has been promised as it relates to conducting policy.  One tool the Fed has used consistently since 2009 is the incredible power of their telling the market exactly what their plans are. Promising the markets, they will keep rates very low through next year has acted to keep bond investors from betting against the Fed’s word. Those who have bet against the Fed over the past ten-plus years have probably had bad outcomes. One question that may never be answered is: if the Fed does need to act to raise short-term rates in advance of next year, and they do act, will they lose the power of their promise?

I enjoy hearing from readers; feel free to comment directly to my email by clicking on my name below.

 

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading

The Sustainability of Growing Margin Debt

Is Inflation Going to Hurt Stocks?



Should Stock Market Investors Worry About Inflation?

Money Supply is Like Caffeine for Stocks

 

Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

https://www.fincash.com/l/basics/base-effect

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-04-12/dudley-says-fed-will-be-much-slower-to-tighten-video

https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-says-interest-rates-may-have-to-rise-to-keep-economy-from-overheating-11620151101#:~:text=Yellen%20told%20The%20Wall%20Street,the%20coming%20months%20will%20subside

 

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