Gold Maintained Its Haven Status During the Evergrande Selloff

 

It’s the biggest company you’ve never heard of—until last week, that is. Evergrande Group, the “too big to fail” Chinese property developer, rattled markets last Monday when it missed interest payments to at least two of its lenders. This gave more than a few investors flashbacks to Lehman Brothers’ demise in 2008, which helped trigger the global financial crisis.

 

This article was republished with permission from Frank Talk, a CEO Blog by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors (GROW). Find more of Frank’s articles here – Originally published September 27, 2021

 

The selloff spread to U.S. markets, and I was pleased to see that gold maintained its haven status. The yellow metal ended the day slightly up more than half a percent, passing an important “stress test” of its investment case in the age of Bitcoin.

The world’s biggest cryptocurrency, believed by many to be “digital gold,” plunged 8.5% on Monday as investors dumped riskier assets. Indeed, Bitcoin is more than four times as volatile as gold. Those of you who attended HIVE Blockchain Technologies’ earnings webcast on Friday know that gold bullion has a 10-day standard deviation of only ±3, while Bitcoin’s is ±14. Ether’s is even higher at ±19 over 10 trading days.

Bitcoin dipped further last week after the Chinese government banned all crypto transactions and crypto mining, prompting many to speculate that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is preparing to issue its own CBDC, or central
bank digital currency.

I believe this crackdown is yet more proof that people need to own some Bitcoin, which is currently on sale as we await news on whether the Xi Jinping Administration will step in to prevent another pandemic, this one of the financial kind.

Gold and Bitcoin Looking More Attractive as Contagion Fears Mount

For the record, I find it hard to believe that President Xi will do nothing. Evergrande may not be a household name in the U.S., but it’s China’s second largest real estate company, with nearly 800 projects in 234 cities. It also offers financial products, invests in electric vehicles and is even building a theme park on an artificial
island off the province of Hainan.

This growth didn’t happen organically, though, and today Evergrande is believed to be the world’s most indebted developer, saddled with more than $300 billion in total liabilities. In November 2020, the Financial
Times wrote that the Fortune 500 company “has enough land to house the entire population of Portugal and more debt than New Zealand.” At the end of last year, it had roughly twice as much debt as equity, putting it in a class well above other Chinese real estate firms. 

As “eye-popping” as Evergrande’s debt load is, it’s a “small drop in the ocean of debt that the world is swimming in,” CLSA’s Damian Kestel wrote last week in a note to clients. Total global debt in the second quarter stood at just under $300 trillion, a new record, according to the Institute of International Finance’s (IFF) most recent Global Debt Monitor.

“The bigger they come, the harder they fall,” as the saying goes. If Evergrande were allowed to fail without any governmental intervention, it could spark a credit crisis that would make 2007-2008 look tame by comparison.

Against this backdrop, gold and Bitcoin look very attractive to me as stores of value, and both happen to be on sale right now. I’ve always recommended a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in bullion and 5% in gold mining stocks and ETFs. I also believe it’s prudent to have between 1% and 2% in Bitcoin.

No, They’re Not Mutually Exclusive

As someone who’s involved in both gold and Bitcoin investing, I clearly don’t subscribe to the idea that one is better than the other in all cases. I agree with Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who said in a note last week that gold and Bitcoin “can complement each other in a portfolio.”

Although the two assets share
obvious similarities and differences – one is thousands of years old while the other is brand spanking new; one is easily portable while the other isn’t—I think there are three important distinctions that investors need to be aware of: volatility, taxation and correlation to the market.

Volatility I’ve already talked about.

Looking at taxation, Bitcoin is taxed the same as a stock, with a long-term capital gains rate of between 0% and 20%, depending on income level. Gold, on the other hand, is taxed as a collectible, meaning it carries a higher fixed rate of 28%, regardless of income. Point: Bitcoin.

And then there’s correlation. Gold has no correlation to the S&P 500, making it suitable for someone who wants to hedge against market risk. As a risk-on asset, Bitcoin has a slight correlation to the S&P. Point: Gold.

When you add all of this up, I believe it shows that gold has a small advantage over Bitcoin as a diversifier and store of value—at least for now. This could change as the Bitcoin network matures and its price swings stabilize.

 

Channelchek invites
you subscribe to the U.S. Global Investors YouTube channel by clicking here!

 

Suggested Reading:

Afghanistan is Sitting on a Gold Mine. Literally

What Metals Prices Can Tell us About the Economy

Afghanistan’s Mineral Resources are Estimated to be Worth $1 Trillion to $3 Trillion

Will U.S. Car Companies be Handed Different EV Advantages?

 

Of
Importance to Finance Majors (or Related Field)

Each year Noble Capital Markets, Channelchek, and some very generous and caring sponsors hold the Channelchek College Equity Research Challenge.

The Challenge invites students to compete with one another for high cash prizes awarded to the student and the student’s school – plus more (see rules). It may also provide high-value networking opportunities with veteran equity analysts.

Who can compete?

You don’t have to be a finance, accounting, or major in a related field to understand that up to $7500 for you, and an additional $5,000 to your school can be quite helpful.  If you are fully matriculated and interested, you likely qualify.

We invite
you to learn more.  

 

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	Image Credit: Lisa Barker (Flickr)

Why are Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Candidates Having So Much Trouble?

 

The CFA Level 1 pass rate broke all previous records by plunging 12% this summer. According to a CFA press release dated September 14, only 22% of the 28,849 candidates who sat for the Level 1 test qualify to move on to Level 2. This is the lowest pass rate since the exam’s origin back in 1963. The ten-year average rate of success is 41%. The previous low was set by those who took the exam last May. Their success rate was just
25%, almost half of the 49% that had passed in December of 2020.

 

What Has Caused the Back-to-Back Declines?

Peg Jobst, CFA Managing Director, Head of Credentialing, said: “We continue to see the impact from the exam disruptions brought on by the global pandemic. We understand how difficult this period has been for our candidates, who in many cases, saw their exam schedules changed more than once as they sought to sit for Level I of the CFA Program. We can clearly see that these disruptions have impacted the overall pass rate.”

In a CFA press release following the initial fall off in passing grades earlier this year (May exam), the institute said the exam difficulty was consistent with past years. Did the pandemic cause a high level of distraction from exam prep? Did the move to computer-based testing play a role?  The CFA Institute seems to suggest the low pass rate was in large part due to poorly prepared candidates.  Each of the CFA exam levels requires at least 300 hours of study time. Candidates taking exams this year have had their studies disrupted by repeated exam postponements and cancellations due to COVID 19 preventative measures.

“Going forward, we do expect the pass rate to approach pre-COVID historical levels in time — so long as pandemic conditions subside. As we have said before, the exams and the process for setting the minimum passing score have not changed. Unfortunately, the many challenges posed by life during a pandemic have clearly made the process more daunting,” said Ms. Jobst.

Take-Away

Globally it seems the CFA candidates are not able to prepare and pass at the rate that they had previously. This is likely troubling for all candidates as well as the CFA Institute. It should be particularly concerning for those who must pass to retain a position at their firm as they are particularly hard hit if they don’t succeed.

 

Of Importance to Finance Majors (or Related Field)

Each year Noble Capital Markets, Channelchek, and some very generous and caring sponsors hold the Channelchek College Equity Research Challenge.

The Challenge invites students to compete with one another for high cash prizes awarded to the student and the student’s school – plus more (see rules). It may also provide high-value networking opportunities with veteran equity analysts.

Who can compete?

You don’t have to be a finance, accounting, or major in a related field to understand that up to $7500 for you, and an additional $5,000 to your school can be quite helpful.  If you are fully matriculated and interested, you likely qualify.

We
invite you to learn more.  

 

 

Sources:

https://www.cfainstitute.org/about/press-releases/2021/cfa-institute-reports-results-for-testing-in-july

 

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Will U.S. Car Companies be Handed Different EV Advantages?

 

Most investors will know these answers: What’s the world’s largest car company by market cap? What company builds the most electric vehicles (EVs)?  Which car is the most “Made in the USA?” And finally, which large U.S. auto manufacturer was not invited when The White House announced plans to “Drive American Leadership Forward on Clean Cars and Trucks”?

 

Answers

Tesla, the electric car company that was founded by South African-born Elon Musk, has the highest market cap of any car company in the world, currently at $742 billion. The second largest is Toyota, approximately one-third the value at $254 billion. Tesla also happens to be the company that builds the most electric cars, measured by the actual number of vehicles and percentage of fleet (100%).  The next answer is the car with the most parts sourced from American materials and labor (just over 70%) is the Telsa Model 3. The Model Y is in the third position while the Ford Mustang qualifies for second place.  The last answer; when The White House invited U.S. car manufacturers to the White House on August 5 to sign an order that kicks-off the target of 50% electric vehicle sales each by 2030, to advance smart fuel efficiency and emission standards, Elon Musk and Tesla were not on the invite list.

 

Car Talk

There were a number of news stories written about the White House “snubbing” Elon. Financial TV personalities discussed it as odd or even insulting that he wasn’t invited, and Musk’s preferred social media platform, Twitter, erupted with sub-280-character commentary. We may never know the answer as to why.  One of the “U.S. Big Three” car manufacturers that were there is an American subsidiary of a Dutch-domiciled automotive company, so it could be argued that they had no more business being invited than Honda or many others.

The reason may be as simple as the car manufacturers that were included in the signing ceremony, don’t meet the fleet percentage goals laid out in the non-binding executive order. In contrast, Tesla has exceeded the target set for 2030 and beyond. We don’t know if this was the rationale, but this could make sense.

Another thought on why the head of the car company where all models are electric was not included is that there really was no reason for him to be there. One thing that is in the infrastructure bill is to subsidize manufacturers when fewer than half their cars sold, are electric. Tesla won’t qualify as they have met the goal, in fact, they sell so many EVs that purchasers no longer qualify for government rebates as they do with other manufacturers that sell less than 200,000 EVs a year.

Some have questioned if there is something much more political behind Musk not be included at this ceremony. It has also been pointed out that after one of his other companies sent four civilians into space for the first time, there was no congratulatory phone call from The White House. Those that question the relationship between him or his companies with politicians point out that he is the only non-union car company headquartered in the states. Could there be pressure from political donors to avoid the founder? Another thing Musk and his company are excluded from suggests there may actually be some politics at play. Within the $3.5 billion proposed infrastructure bill, there is money set aside to create rebates for purchasers of EVs. However, this rebate only applies if the car was built with union labor. This clearly works to disadvantage Tesla’s business structure.

 

Entrepreneurial Spirit

The Founder and CEO of Tesla is a serial entrepreneur. Each company, whether it be Paypal, The Boring Company, SpaceX , Tesla, or others he started along the way are unique and probably required a lot of autonomy. The required autonomy is because the ideas may have seemed farfetched or beyond anyone’s grasp to accomplish. Less autonomy may have only served to undermine his success.  

It may be this independent trait that separates him from those in government. Those that are more inclined to set an agenda and expect that others will fall in line. Some fall in line because their hand is out on behalf of their stockholders for assistance; others fall in line because they don’t have better ideas themselves. One example where Musk openly did not fall in line is when he resigned from two advisory councils during the last administration. Elon Musk was determined to only align himself with those that he felt were pro-environment. The U.S. backing out of the Paris Climate Agreement worked against this ethic, so he decided to resign from the White House’s Manufacturing Jobs Initiative and Strategic and Policy Forum, and the Economic Advisory Council.

 

 

 Investor Take-Away

To operate a business in a country that can even consider spending the large $3.5 trillion for upgrades, change, improvements, and incentives to build toward a more solid future is positive for the company. If the trillions are spent in an uneven way, investors should pay attention to the industries that benefit and companies within those industries – specifically, the industries and companies that could benefit or be hurt by lopsided handling of funds used for growth.

The news outlets and avid Tweeters seem to exist to convey their thoughts and to a lesser extent, put on a show. Whether there was a snub of a U.S. car company (or its head) is really just gossip. Investors don’t make money off gossip. However, trends are important and so is a competitive advantage. Pay attention to how all the car companies are treated; there may be opportunities if one or more are favored during the coming changes.

Email me your thoughts on this or other investment matters directly if you’d like. If you aren’t registered to receive our articles and access to equity research take a second and leave your email here now.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading:

Lithium Prices Strengthening on EV Demand

Can Tesla Beat Lithium Miners at Their Own Game?

Academic Thoughts on Tesla’s Robots

The Future of Electric Vehicles

 

Sources:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-steps-to-drive-american-leadership-forward-on-clean-cars-and-trucks/

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/car-manufacturers-by-market-cap.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2021/06/23/which-cars-are-the-most-american-for-2021/?sh=42e9d9655210

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-elon-musk-biden-spacex-51632147109?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1

https://www.cars.com/american-made-index/

 

Stay up to date. Follow us:

Will U.S. Car Companies be Handed Different EV Advantages?

 

Most investors will know these answers: What’s the world’s largest car company by market cap? What company builds the most electric vehicles (EVs)?  Which car is the most “Made in the USA?” And finally, which large U.S. auto manufacturer was not invited when The White House announced plans to “Drive American Leadership Forward on Clean Cars and Trucks”?

 

Answers

Tesla, the electric car company that was founded by South African-born Elon Musk, has the highest market cap of any car company in the world, currently at $742 billion. The second largest is Toyota, approximately one-third the value at $254 billion. Tesla also happens to be the company that builds the most electric cars, measured by the actual number of vehicles and percentage of fleet (100%).  The next answer is the car with the most parts sourced from American materials and labor (just over 70%) is the Telsa Model 3. The Model Y is in the third position while the Ford Mustang qualifies for second place.  The last answer; when The White House invited U.S. car manufacturers to the White House on August 5 to sign an order that kicks-off the target of 50% electric vehicle sales each by 2030, to advance smart fuel efficiency and emission standards, Elon Musk and Tesla were not on the invite list.

 

Car Talk

There were a number of news stories written about the White House “snubbing” Elon. Financial TV personalities discussed it as odd or even insulting that he wasn’t invited, and Musk’s preferred social media platform, Twitter, erupted with sub-280-character commentary. We may never know the answer as to why.  One of the “U.S. Big Three” car manufacturers that were there is an American subsidiary of a Dutch-domiciled automotive company, so it could be argued that they had no more business being invited than Honda or many others.

The reason may be as simple as the car manufacturers that were included in the signing ceremony, don’t meet the fleet percentage goals laid out in the non-binding executive order. In contrast, Tesla has exceeded the target set for 2030 and beyond. We don’t know if this was the rationale, but this could make sense.

Another thought on why the head of the car company where all models are electric was not included is that there really was no reason for him to be there. One thing that is in the infrastructure bill is to subsidize manufacturers when fewer than half their cars sold, are electric. Tesla won’t qualify as they have met the goal, in fact, they sell so many EVs that purchasers no longer qualify for government rebates as they do with other manufacturers that sell less than 200,000 EVs a year.

Some have questioned if there is something much more political behind Musk not be included at this ceremony. It has also been pointed out that after one of his other companies sent four civilians into space for the first time, there was no congratulatory phone call from The White House. Those that question the relationship between him or his companies with politicians point out that he is the only non-union car company headquartered in the states. Could there be pressure from political donors to avoid the founder? Another thing Musk and his company are excluded from suggests there may actually be some politics at play. Within the $3.5 billion proposed infrastructure bill, there is money set aside to create rebates for purchasers of EVs. However, this rebate only applies if the car was built with union labor. This clearly works to disadvantage Tesla’s business structure.

 

Entrepreneurial Spirit

The Founder and CEO of Tesla is a serial entrepreneur. Each company, whether it be Paypal, The Boring Company, SpaceX , Tesla, or others he started along the way are unique and probably required a lot of autonomy. The required autonomy is because the ideas may have seemed farfetched or beyond anyone’s grasp to accomplish. Less autonomy may have only served to undermine his success.  

It may be this independent trait that separates him from those in government. Those that are more inclined to set an agenda and expect that others will fall in line. Some fall in line because their hand is out on behalf of their stockholders for assistance; others fall in line because they don’t have better ideas themselves. One example where Musk openly did not fall in line is when he resigned from two advisory councils during the last administration. Elon Musk was determined to only align himself with those that he felt were pro-environment. The U.S. backing out of the Paris Climate Agreement worked against this ethic, so he decided to resign from the White House’s Manufacturing Jobs Initiative and Strategic and Policy Forum, and the Economic Advisory Council.

 

 

 Investor Take-Away

To operate a business in a country that can even consider spending the large $3.5 trillion for upgrades, change, improvements, and incentives to build toward a more solid future is positive for the company. If the trillions are spent in an uneven way, investors should pay attention to the industries that benefit and companies within those industries – specifically, the industries and companies that could benefit or be hurt by lopsided handling of funds used for growth.

The news outlets and avid Tweeters seem to exist to convey their thoughts and to a lesser extent, put on a show. Whether there was a snub of a U.S. car company (or its head) is really just gossip. Investors don’t make money off gossip. However, trends are important and so is a competitive advantage. Pay attention to how all the car companies are treated; there may be opportunities if one or more are favored during the coming changes.

Email me your thoughts on this or other investment matters directly if you’d like. If you aren’t registered to receive our articles and access to equity research take a second and leave your email here now.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading:

Lithium Prices Strengthening on EV Demand

Can Tesla Beat Lithium Miners at Their Own Game?

Academic Thoughts on Tesla’s Robots

The Future of Electric Vehicles

 

Sources:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-steps-to-drive-american-leadership-forward-on-clean-cars-and-trucks/

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/car-manufacturers-by-market-cap.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2021/06/23/which-cars-are-the-most-american-for-2021/?sh=42e9d9655210

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-elon-musk-biden-spacex-51632147109?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1

https://www.cars.com/american-made-index/

 

Stay up to date. Follow us:

Tickets and Concessions Using Your Cryptocurrency Wallet at AMC Theaters

 

AMC Movies is being cheered and booed by cryptocurrency patrons as it allows three more digital currencies to be used to purchase tickets and popcorn. Interestingly one of the more popular currencies is still not among the four accepted at the movie chain. Bitcoin had already been accepted by the theater chain, taking three others is a nod to the credibility and usability of alternate currencies. However, as of August 2021, there are 5840 cryptocurrencies; choosing four, leaves out many large and small coins.

 

What Occurred

Movie-theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings ($AMC) has been accepting Bitcoin (BTC.X) for purchases at its theaters.  They’ve announced a move to accept three other types of digital currencies for patrons making online ticket and concession purchases during 2021.

 

Source: Twitter

 

The company’s CEO, Adam Aron announced this in a Twitter post addressed to “cryptocurrency enthusiasts” late Wednesday (September 15). He tweeted that Ethereum (ETH.X), Litecoin (LTC.X), and Bitcoin Cash (a derivative of the digital currency they already accept) would be acceptable in addition to Bitcoin. However, Dogecoin (DOGE.X), the most exchanged coin on Robinhood, is not part of the four coins accepted. There has been no public word as to why AMC has a no Doge’s allowed rule.

Aron had previously announced that AMC would accept Bitcoin for payments back in August during the company’s most recent quarterly earnings call.

 

What it Means for
Crypto

It is the latest company to join the wider acceptance of digital currencies. Fintech firms PayPal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) allowed users to exchange and even store Bitcoin as well as transact with it. PayPal users can also do the same with Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH.X). Twitter followers of Elon Musk know Tesla (TSLA) began accepting Bitcoin for payments earlier this year. Elon Musk later tempered his talk with concerns around crypto mining’s environmental impact (not value).

AMC’s move does represent another step by a recognized brand toward wider acceptance of the larger cryptocurrencies. This can be thought of as bullish for the entire industry.

Take-Away

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were mocked just a few years ago as not a serious idea. AMC and those that were buying the stock were ridiculed last year during the coronavirus lockdown that prevented theaters from operating. This week, AMC is providing a nod to cryptocurrencies and the entire industry. Although highly popular Dogecoin was not also part of AMC’s initial four, cryptocurrency believers can still feel confident that this is a big vote in favor of their convictions.

 

Suggested Reading:

The Coinbase Nasdaq Listing Offers a Crypto Diversifier

Can Wall Street Giants Put Crypto on the Menu?

Decentralized Finance, is it the Future?

Michael Burry vs Cathie Wood is Not a Fair Competition

 

Sources:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-cryptos-bitcoin-51631794500?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1

https://twitter.com/CEOAdam/status/1438298684266098688/photo/1

https://investor.amctheatres.com/corporate-overview/?_ga=2.36302503.608719830.1631809592-667952136.1631809592

 

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Six Ways the Pandemic Created Cyberattack Opportunities at Schools and Colleges

 

Cyberattacks have hit schools and colleges harder than any other industry during the pandemic. In 2020, including the costs of downtime, repairs and lost opportunities, the average ransomware attack cost educational institutions $2.73 million. That is $300,000 more than the next-highest sector – distributors and transportation companies.

From Aug. 14 to Sept. 12, 2021, educational organizations were the target of over 5.8 million malware attacks, or 63% of all such attacks.

Ransomware attacks alone impacted 1,681 U.S. schools, colleges and universities in 2020. Globally 44% of educational institutions were targeted by such attacks.

 

This article was republished with permission from  The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of  Nir Kshetri, Professor of Management, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

 

I study cybercrime and cybersecurity. In my forthcoming book – set to be published in November 2021 – I look at how the shift to remote learning during the pandemic has posed new cybersecurity challenges.

I see six important ways the pandemic has created new opportunities for cybercriminals to attack schools and colleges.

 1. Unsafe Devices

Devices that were loaned to students during the pandemic often lack security updates. This is a serious issue since in 2020 alone, 1,268 vulnerabilities were discovered in Microsoft products. One such vulnerability can enable hackers to gain higher-level privileges on a system or network, which can be used to steal data and install malware.

As students, teachers and administrators return to school with devices that haven’t been patched in a while, a large number of vulnerable devices are likely to be reconnected to school networks.

 2. Distracted Cybersecurity Staff

The shift to remote learning has also distracted the attention of limited cybersecurity staff from important security issues. In at least one case, persons responsible for cybersecurity were assigned to investigate bad online behavior, such as name-calling, that teachers and administrators handled before.

For most schools, cybersecurity has had to compete with other urgent issues created by the pandemic, such as mental health, vaccines and mask mandates.

3. Victims More Likely to Comply

In 2020, 77 ransomware attacks on U.S. schools and colleges affected more than 1.3 million students and resulted in 531 days of downtime. This downtime was estimated to cost $6.6 billion in economic terms.

The economic impact was based on an estimated average cost of $8,662 per minute. Some cyberattacks during the pandemic completely shut down major school districts for many days.

At the same time, public schools faced political and social pressure to ensure students’ access to learning opportunities during the pandemic. The pressure to quickly restore networks can make victims desperate and willing to comply with criminals’ demands. For instance, the Judson Independent School District in Texas paid $547,000 to ransomware attackers in the summer of 2021 in order to regain access to its systems and stop student and staff data from being published. In 2020, the Athens Independent School District in Texas paid a $50,000 ransom.

4. Vulnerable Platforms

When the pandemic forced schools to use online platforms to conduct classes and evaluate students, it created new entry points for cybercriminals to target.

These platforms include video chat programs such as Zoom and Microsoft Teams, as well as providers of curricula, technology and services, such as K12, recently renamed as Stride. They also include online proctoring services, such as ProctorU and Proctorio.

Collectively, such platforms were targeted in three-quarters of the data breaches  in school districts that involved personal information.

In November 2020, online education vendor K12 reported that some students’ information on its system could have been stolen during a ransomware attack, even though the company paid the ransom.

Likewise, in July 2020, hackers stole sensitive personal information from 444,000 students – including their names, email addresses, home addresses, phone numbers and passwords – by hacking online proctoring service ProctorU. This data became available for sale in online hacker forums.

5. More Baiting Opportunities

Cybercriminals increasingly turned to social engineering attacks during the pandemic. These are attacks in which the cybercriminals use emotional appeals to things such as fear, pity or excitement to bait people into providing sensitive information. For example, cybercriminals have launched phishing campaigns in which they pose as human resources staff and ask recipients to submit information about their COVID-19 vaccination status.

Victims may be lured to give their credentials, click malicious links or download files containing malware. Fear and uncertainty – such as that created by the pandemic – make individuals more susceptible to social engineering attacks.

An analysis of 3.5 million social engineering attacks from June to September 2020 found that more than 1,000 schools and universities were targeted. Educational institutions were also more than twice as likely as other institutions to be victimized by such attacks.

In May 2020, the Federal Trade Commission posted a message on its website with a screenshot of a social engineering attack email. The message warned college students that the emails about COVID-19 economic stimulus checks claiming to be from their universities’ “Financial Department” could be from scammers.

 6. COVID Resources Have Created New Targets

Colleges have been designated to distribute COVID-19 relief funds – and criminals caught on to this. In May 2021, the U.S. Department of Education made more than $36 billion in emergency grants available for students and colleges under the American Rescue Plan Act.

In California, more than $1.6 billion in such grants were available to community college students alone. This explains why, not long afterward, more than 65,000 fake students applied to California community colleges for such aids and loans.

Most two-year institutions don’t have resources to vet applicants. The lack of a requirement for identity verification and other documentation to get COVID-19 relief grants from community colleges also attracted attention from criminals overseas. Many of the fake student applications in the California community college system were from foreign countries. Officials have been silent about whether these fake students got any money.

The bottom line for schools and colleges is that as they continue to confront the challenges of the pandemic, cybersecurity cannot be placed on the back burner. Ignoring threats to cybersecurity now can be quite costly in the future.

 

Virtual Road Show Series – Thursday, September 16 @ 1pm EDT Join One Stop Systems CEO David Raun and CFO John Morrison for this exclusive corporate presentation, followed by a Q & A session moderated by Joe Gomes, Noble’s senior research analyst, featuring questions taken from the audience. Registration is free and open to all investors, at any level. Registration is fast and free.  |  View All Upcoming Road Shows

 

 

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	Image Credit: Blockzeit CH (Flickr)

On September 7th Bitcoin Will Become ‘Legal Tender’ in El Salvador – Here’s What that Means

 

On Sept. 7, 2021, El Salvador will become the first country to make bitcoin legal tender.

The government even went a step further in promoting the cryptocurrency’s use by giving US$30 in free bitcoins to citizens who sign up for its national digital wallet, known as “Chivo,” or “cool” in English. Foreigners who invest three bitcoins in the country – currently about $140,000 – will be granted residency.

Panama is Considering Following El Salvador’s Lead

Does making bitcoin legal tender mean every store and merchant in El Salvador will now have to accept digital payments? If more countries do the same thing, what will this mean for consumers and businesses around the world?

 

This article was republished with permission from  The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts Jay L. Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer, Questrom School of Business, Boston University

 

As an economist who studies wealth and money, I believe that briefly explaining what legal tender is will help answer these questions.

 

What is Legal Tender?

Legal tender refers to money – typically coins and banknotes – that must be accepted if offered in payment of a debt.

The front of every U.S. banknote states “This note is legal tender for all debts public and private.” This statement has been enshrined in federal law in various forms since the late 1800s.

The greenback is not legal tender in just the U.S. El Salvador, for example, switched from the colon, its previous currency, to the U.S. dollar in 2001. Ecuador, Panama, East Timor and the Federated States of Micronesia also all use the dollar as legal tender.

Do Merchants have to Accept Legal Tender?

But despite the definition above, legal tender doesn’t mean all businesses must accept it in payment for a good or service.

That requirement applies only to debts owed to creditors. The ability for a store to refuse cash or other legal tender is made explicit on the websites of both the U.S. Treasury, which is in charge of printing paper money and minting coins, and the Federal Reserve, which is in charge of distributing currency to the nation’s banks.

 

Source: www.ustreasury.gov

 

This is why many companies such as airlines accept payments exclusively by credit card, and many small retailers take only cash.

As the U.S. Treasury points out, there is “no federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as payment for goods or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether to accept cash unless there is a state law which says otherwise.”

And this would be no different if the U.S. made bitcoin legal tender. Private businesses would not be required to accept it.

There is clearly some confusion in El Salvador over the issue, however. Its original bitcoin law, passed in June 2021, states that “every economic agent must accept bitcoin as payment when offered to him by whoever acquires a good or service.”

This led to protests and resulted in skepticism from economists and others. As a result, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele tweeted in August that businesses did not have to accept bitcoin.

A man in Tamanique, El Salvador, makes a purchase at the opening of a small store that has a sign that says it accepts bitcoin.

Will bitcoin catch on in El Salvador? AP Photo/Salvador Melendez

Why did El Salvador make bitcoin legal tender?

El Salvador is betting that being the first to open its doors completely to bitcoin will help boost its economy.

President Bukele said he believes this will encourage investors with cryptocurrency to spend more of it in his country. He even has a plan to have El Salvador’s state-run geothermal utility use energy from the country’s volcanoes to mine bitcoin.

Creating, or mining, bitcoin takes a lot of energy, so mining makes sense only in places with cheap electricity.

The $30 given to every citizen who joins the cryptocurrency craze will temporarily stimulate the economy. However, the overall impact will likely be a short-term boost. The impact of similar payments in other countries, like COVID-19 stimulus payments appears to end after people have spent the money. Moreover, it’s unclear El Salvador’s increasingly indebted government can even afford it.

 

 

And the widespread adoption of bitcoin will likely take years. El Salvador has been installing 200 bitcoin ATMs to allow people to convert cryptocurrency into dollars.

Since just 30% of the Central American country’s population even has a bank account, I believe the U.S. dollar will still be used in El Salvador for a long time, even if its president wants to move toward bitcoin.

 

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Blockchain Smart Contracts Aim to Cut Out Intermediaries

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Microeconomics Explains Why People Can Never Have Enough of What They Want and How that Influences Policies

 

Economics is broadly divided into macroeconomics and microeconomics. The big picture, macroeconomics, concentrates on the behavior of a national or a regional economy as a whole: the totals of goods and services, unemployment, and prices.

Then there’s a more detailed picture: the economic decisions that people and businesses make. Microeconomics analyzes behavior. It looks at how individuals and companies respond to incentives and allocate scarce resources efficiently.

People struggle to get as much as possible while spending as little as possible. The economist Thomas Sowell has said there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. This omnipresence of scarcity in our lives makes the study of human behavior compelling.

Microeconomics is divided into the theory of the consumer, which focuses on people’s behavior in market settings, and the theory of the firm, which concentrates on how businesses act, once again in market settings.

Consumers Pursue their Self-Interest

In the 19th century, economists referred to consumers as “economic men” or homo economicus. Today they might call consumers economic people. All of these terms refer to the idea that individuals make decisions based upon the rational pursuit of their self-interest.

The meaning of self-interest is pretty clear, but it’s important to comprehend what economists mean by pursuing it rationally.

To an economist, behavior is rational if it helps attain goals. Economists do not pass moral judgment on a person’s goals. Behavior that may seem irrational to a non-economist is not necessarily so to an economist.

To see this, say that a man named Raj wants to rob a bank. Given that goal, economists would say that if Raj conducts surveillance on the bank to look for security cameras, that’s rational behavior — for Raj.

Or if a woman named Asha hates credit cards, economists pass no judgment on her thinking and would say that for her, it is rational to burn credit cards.

 

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, Rochester Institute of Technology

 

Consumers Want the Most they Can Afford

To buy anything, a consumer must interact with a producer — a seller — whether that seller is a mom-and-pop store or Amazon. Consumer theory says they examine prices because they are interested in getting those goods and services that will make their satisfaction as large as possible at the lowest possible price.

Microeconomists study that interaction mathematically in two ways. First, they try to gauge a consumer’s satisfaction level by assigning a number based on how much this consumer values the goods and services she chooses to buy in a market. They call this number utility.

Second, they interpret the act of seeking the most satisfaction as solving a maximization problem. In a maximization problem, a consumer seeks the biggest bang for their buck.

Therefore, the central problem in consumer theory is the study of how consumers go about maximizing their utility in market settings — buying as much of what they like with the money they have available.

What fascinates microeconomists studying utility maximization is that it nicely illustrates a central tension in economics: how best to satisfy unlimited wants with limited means. The “unlimited wants” are captured by the notion of utility, and “limited means” refers to a consumer’s finite income or budget. Economists call this a constrained maximization problem.

As an example, consider Sheila, who has a budget of $1,000 a month (her constraint) for apartment rent. The monthly rents for apartments A, B and C are $900, $1,000 and $1,500. Sheila rules out apartment C – it’s too expensive. Apartment A will save her money, but apartment B, within her budget, may be nicer.

Companies Also Pursue Self-Interest

An integral part of microeconomics is the theory of the firm, the term economists use for companies. Economists believe that businesses exist because team production is efficient and it minimizes the costs of contracting.

Economists study how businesses make as much profit as they possibly can. Companies, like individual people, try to solve a maximization problem: how to maximize their profit. Producer theory seeks to explain how businesses do that.

The study of profit maximization is fascinating to a microeconomicist like me because no company can produce whatever it wants and in unlimited quantities. Businesses are constrained by their technical capabilities and the cost of paying for inputs like capital and labor. Microeconomists describe these technical capabilities by means of the production function. This mathematical relationship describes how businesses use capital and labor to produce their goods or services.

Microeconomics looks at how consumers and companies behave so that they can understand why society needs economic policies to regulate and shape their behavior.

 

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Will Investors Keep Reducing Leverage?

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The Exponential Impact of Lowering Economic Activity (April 2020)

Black Swans, Falling Knives, and Market Corrections (March 2020)

 

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Holiday Gift-Giving Season May Include More Gift Cards and IOUs

 

While last year’s holiday season was hampered with travel restrictions and concerns over visiting older relatives amidst a pandemic, the 2021 gift-giving season may be challenged with a shortage of gifts.  Constraints on importing and exporting grow throughout the entire network, including dock space, ships, trucks, warehouses, workers, and rail transit – they are all beyond capacity on top of the already backed-up ports. Demand for many items is much higher than normal. These problems are expected to continue into, and perhaps through next year. Americans should expect ongoing shortages of imported goods, higher prices that may be temporary, and closing of stores that can’t keep enough product on the shelves.

 

Help from Washington?

Earlier this month, the Biden administration announced it was working with supply chain operators in an effort to ease congestion at the ports.  The President is on record as saying, “Our experts believe … that these bottlenecks and price spikes will reduce as our economy continues to heal.” It’s not expected that any immediate relief will come from these longer-term efforts.

 

Image: Shipping traffic Map from Marine traffic.com (8/30/21)

 

Who Benefits

Where will the money flow? With the idea that with every problem, there is opportunity, let’s explore.

Shipping companies would seem to be an obvious choice. Although their costs have increased, they have as a group been rising all year after a challenging 2020 — they are now largely in the driver’s seat. Some shipping companies are trading at a multiple of their December 31^st close. Large retailers may also benefit, they have the financial firepower to outcompete and perhaps even drive small competitors out of business. These companies did well last year as many also have a large online presence. The deck seems to continue to be stacked in their favor. Made in America companies avoid at least one bottleneck, but their products will be in demand. They will have an easier time than their overseas competitors. There are a number of fintech companies involved in gift cards. Gift cards were popular last year since, as a gift, they are easy to mail. This year as scarcity provides an additional reason to exchange gift cards, the underlying companies providing the financial instrument could have another good year. Dredging companies may also benefit. Part of the problem is many of the ships are too large for some of the U.S. ports. As part of infrastructure improvements, money has been earmarked to update the ports to accommodate these larger ships.

 

Take-Away

Pent-up demand coupled with shortages of labor and high stimulus levels has created huge bottlenecks at the nation’s ports. This makes many products difficult to come by. The situation may only get worse as we approach the peak pre-holiday season.

The problem is likely to raise product prices as it has already raised shipping fees. Other industries and specific companies appear set to profit from the supply-chain issues.

 

Suggested Content:

” The SECs Prioritizing ESG Investment Products May Uncover a Supply Problem ”

What Metals Prices Can Tell Us About the Economy

High Points of Jackson Hole Presentation

California’s Electric Grid to Add Five New Gas Powered Generators

 

Sources:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/08/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-supply-chain-disruptions-task-force-to-address-short-term-supply-chain-discontinuities/

https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/secretary-pete-buttigieg-hosts-roundtable-port-congestion-supply-chain-disruptions

https://www.fmc.gov/testimony-of-commissioner-dye-before-congress-impacts-of-shipping-container-shortages-delays-and-increased-demand-on-the-north-american-supply-chain/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/11/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-build-back-better-agenda/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4_jK8YGigY

 

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	Image Credit: Ketut Subiyanto

Two Things Happened to Real Estate Last Week, Both Could be Good for Stocks

 

The Real Estate market is an alternative and even competing investment to the stock market. They can be complementary investments, as historically there is a low correlation between the two. If one asset class enters a bear market, or perhaps shows potential for outsized gains, some investors will shift from one to the other.

Real Estate “Swing Traders”

The low interest rate environment of the past few years had brought house flipping back as a profitable enterprise. A flip is defined as a home purchased and sold within a 12-month period. It’s been a good ride for those involved. During 2020, the average gross return on flipped homes reached record levels. According to ATTOM Data Solutions, the number of homes flipped in 2019 vs 2020 dropped 13%, even at that it was 5.9% of single-family home sales and 241,630 units. And, although it was the highest year for gross profit, the actual return on investment sunk to levels not seen since 2012. 

The nature of any transaction in real estate is there has to be a wide margin for error. This is because transaction costs and carrying costs, including taxes, utilities, upkeep, and perhaps financing, can add up quickly. These costs all pull from the investment’s final return (ROI).

In terms of price growth, single-family homes and condos have outperformed the stock market over time so for some, they are considered less risky, and easier to understand than buying shares of a big company. But real properties are certainly not as liquid as securities that trade on an exchange. So, if the housing market begins to decline, finding someone to take the other side of your real estate sale may take time. As mentioned earlier, time is costly.

 

The chart shows net returns on real estate flipping have not increased since 2016 and have even trended lower. With more reduction in return, more investors may decide to place their investible cash someplace with a better risk/return profile.

Real Estate “Income Investors”

But not everyone invests in residential real estate with the idea of trading out of the property within 12 months. Some become landlords and benefit from an income stream. The difference between the two types of real estate investors is not unlike the difference between a (stock market) swing trader and another with a portfolio of dividend stocks. Over the past year, these landlord/investors have, as a group, captured the dramatic rise in real estate prices. Most have at the same time collected steady rents.

 

The Graph shows the national median sales price of existing homes over the last 12 months

Last week it was reported that home prices dipped in July from June. This interrupts housing’s price climb for the first time in a year. And the climb has been rapid; back in May and June, the median price for existing homes had reached a historical record when it grew 23% from a year earlier. But in July, the median price dipped (to $359,000), reducing the year-over-year gains to a still worthwhile 18.8%.

For both landlords that have had pandemic-related challenges that we’ll address later and the house flippers that are already seeing a decrease in their ROI, this may signal that it’s time to take their chips off the table. For the flippers, reduced inventory is already forcing fewer transactions. This speculative money will find itself trying to earn a return in other markets, perhaps stocks with high growth potential.

Rental property owners have their own set of concerns. For one, they’re faced with the proposed long-term capital gains tax increases (39.6% to 43.4% for high-income individuals) that would cut into any profit from a sale. Perhaps more concerning are the other government impositions since March 2020. Last March, an agency of the U.S. government (Center for Disease Control) imposed a temporary ban on evictions; this ban was extended twice, with the most recent deadline set as October 3, 2021. The reality that a property owner can have this level of outside meddling in their business increases their investment risk. For those that may have wanted to sell their property since March 2020 because of the changing regulatory landscape, a non-paying, non-evictable tenant hampered the option.

Real
Estate Investors (All Styles)

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday (Aug 26) effectively banned the temporary ban on evictions, originally imposed by the CDC. The Court said that the ban exceeded the CDC’s authority to combat communicable diseases and that it forced landlords to bear the costs of the pandemic. The court made clear in an unsigned opinion that the CDC did not have any standing in the case since they did not have authority. The Court paper did indicate Congress could still enact non-eviction laws.

 

“…the CDC has imposed a nationwide moratorium on evictions in reliance on a decades-old statute that authorizes it to implement measures like fumigation and pest extermination. It strains credulity to believe that this statute grants the CDC the sweeping authority that it asserts.” – U.S. Supreme Court, August 26, 2021

 

The decision was not unexpected. The current administration recently made $47 billion in funds available to landlords to benefit their tenants that had accrued overdue rent obligations. This money is to be distributed by state governments with the goal of making landlords whole and tenants current. The states have been slow to distribute this taxpayer money. Rules have recently been eased to help expedite the process. For example, landlords of multiple rentals had to apply for each individually; now they can put them all on one application. The $47 billion entering the economy is being put into the hands of landlords that are now able to evict. This could cause an increased supply of existing homes on the real estate market.

 

 

The Stock Market May Benefit

Home flipping is experiencing reduced returns and a much more difficult and risky environment. The nature of flipping is that it usually burns itself out in a cyclical nature. Low ROI and few available properties signal the top of the cycle. Signs of reduced activity in this area suggest investible cash is being sidelined.

As we saw with stimulus checks and the market reaction, large sums of money placed in people’s hands is either spent, invested, or used to reduce liabilities. Many landlords will receive their portion of the $47 billion reimbursements for uncollected rent and use it to pay overdue bills. Others that have been keeping up with their costs will see it as found money, money they can put to work (invested) or to treat themselves. Putting it to work, in light of current conditions, is not as likely to mean purchasing additional real estate, or even improving current properties. These owners had a hard lesson last year, and the Supreme Court has as much as told Congress, if you want eviction moratoriums, pass a law. Meanwhile, home prices dropped last month; interest rate increases could push prices down further. This opens the door for landlords who have been made whole to decide if it’s time to cash out on their properties that are now sitting near record highs in an environment fraught with negative pressures.

Simply put, money not being invested in flipping, money from the landlord reimbursements, money from landlords cashing out, all has to go someplace. The stock market has been breaking records, it’s liquid, not subject to moratoriums on earned income, and has few carrying costs. It is perhaps the natural alternative. This is not to say the stock market doesn’t have its own concerns. The implication is that although real estate has historically outperformed, at this time in history, investors may find stocks the preferred alternative.

 

Take-Away

Nothing happens in a vacuum. The bond market impacts the stock and real estate markets, both impact gold and other commodities; new stimulus checks will impact cryptocurrency, weather impacts farm prices, new regulations, etc. Everything is connected. Looking ahead to how one may impact the other is a way for investors to keep ahead. Real estate had gotten to the point where people were once again speaking as though it can only go up forever – popular TV shows encouraged home flipping. This era may be ending. As for rental properties, they had become a burden on many over the past 17 months. For those landlords that will be handed a check worth 17 months of rent, in what is still a very strong but possibly declining real estate market, the opportunity to get out of the business will be compelling.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading:

A Look at Real Estate Risks to the Stock Market

Who benefits from America’s Jobs Plan?

Are Small Cap Stocks Smart Investments?

How Much is a Trillion?

 

Sources:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/21a23_ap6c.pdf

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/17/home-flipping-profits-are-the-highest-in-20-years.html

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/flipping/attom-data-solutions-2020-year-end-u-s-home-flipping-report/

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-climb-2-0-in-july

 

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What Do Banks and Financial Executives Think of Blockchain and Digital Assets?

 

The accounting firm Deloitte Touche Tomatsu surveyed a global array of senior executives during the early Spring of 2021.  The intent was to gather information on their thoughts of blockchain and digital assets and make available perceptions and expectations that could shape the future.  A total of 1,280 senior business leaders worldwide were surveyed; all had at least a general understanding of blockchain. The 28-page report focuses on how organizations are harnessing blockchain’s capabilities with a further emphasis on financial applications such as crypto assets, industry value, and banking services. From this data, a trend and clearer picture of the future is painted.

The overall finding was that among the financial services industry (FSI) respondents, about 80% say digital assets will be “very/somewhat important” to their industry over the next 24 months. More than 75% of all respondents feel they’ll be at a disadvantage competitively if they fail to adopt blockchain and digital assets.

 

The 2021 Global Blockchain Survey was Conducted in 10 Locations (1,280 Respondents)

 

Source: Deloitte’s 2021 Global Blockchain Survey

 

How Do Financial Executives View Blockchain and Digital
Assets?

The respondent categories are broken out into three segments. The Overall includes everyone, FSI  Overall, and FSI Pioneers.  Deloitte defined the FSI Pioneers this way,  “…have deep convictions about the potential that blockchain and digital assets offer.” Across all three groupings, there was strong agreement of the importance of blockchain and digital assets.

 

Source: Deloitte’s 2021 Global Blockchain Survey

 

The Future of Digital Assets

It would make sense that the FSI Pioneer category would be near “all in” on their convictions. When it comes to importance to the industry or whether digital assets will be an alternative fiat, the Overall and FSI Overall demonstrated only 76% agreed.

 

 

Source: Deloitte’s 2021 Global Blockchain Survey

 

Barriers

Approximately 60% of the overall respondents and 70% of the FSI Pioneer category pointed to regulatory barriers as the largest obstacle of digital assets. Cybersecurity is also of great concern to the larger Overall group, with 71% responding that it is a big obstacle. Privacy was of least concern to the overall group, with 59% considering it a big concern, whereas almost 70% of the FSI Pioneers had privacy concerns.

 

 

Greatest Impact

The survey reflected optimism about future revenue opportunities from providing solutions for digital assets and blockchain. FSI Pioneers once again are strong believers, with 93% strongly/somewhat agreeing versus 80% of Overall respondents. In order to capture these revenues, financial services firms can’t sit idle; they must adapt and reinvent how they do business. If they don’t, the concern is they won’t capture the potential for revenue, and they will instead see a drain on old business lines.

The evolution of the financial services industry is picking up speed.  Blockchain is seen as a way among many business leaders, particularly those the survey categorized as pioneers, as a way to gain a competitive advantage. The winners will be those most flexible, they don’t have to invent any new path, but quick adaptation could be the difference between thriving and not.

Suggested Reading:

Decentralized Finance, Is It the Future

Decentralized Apps (“Dapps”) Using Blockchain to Change the Internet

The Coinbase Nasdaq Listing Offers a Diversified Equity Investment in Crypto-Growth

Cryptocurrency Gaining Acceptance by Banks

 

Source:

Deloitte’s 2021 Global Blockchain Survey

 

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The Beginning of the Road for Gold?

 

With the return of inflation and expected deceleration of economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), a growing chorus of commentators are highlighting the risk of stagflation which was last prevalent in the 1970s. Stagflation is generally characterized as a period of declining economic growth, high unemployment, and inflationary pressure. While high unemployment is arguably not present in the current environment, most economists expect a deceleration in GDP growth rates, while inflation has been fueled by accommodative monetary policies and increased fiscal spending to combat the negative economic impacts of COVID-19. Longer-term Treasury yields appear to signal easing inflation, while inflation-adjusted yields are consistent with low economic growth expectations. The jury is still out on whether inflation will prove transitory or whether it will prove more sustainable than the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman predict.

Building a Stagflation Portfolio

Gold shined as a defensive asset during the stagflationary 1970s, a period characterized by inflation, high unemployment, and poor economic growth. While the current macroeconomic environment differs in many respects from the 1970s, there are similarities, including 1) transitory inflation is proving more persistent than many expected, 2) real economic growth is expected to decelerate, and 3) the labor participation continues to be negatively impacted by COVID concerns, federal unemployment benefits, and mortgage and rental forbearance programs that have been cited as reasons some choose not to enter or re-enter the workforce. The emergence of the delta variant of the coronavirus leads some to think that the economy could move into a stagflation-like period that could limit the Federal Reserve’s options for tightening monetary policy to combat the recent increase in inflation.

The information below was sourced from the U.S. Gold Bureau’s website, which summarizes historical asset class performance during stagflationary periods.

Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research, Incrementum AG

What is notable is gold’s average outperformance during these periods relative to the broader market. While metals underperformed, mining stocks linked to gold and silver could be expected to benefit from gold and silver outperformance. While oil outperformed gold and silver, the transition to alternative energy and lesser reliance by the United States on foreign sources of oil may impact oil’s sensitivity to stagflation.

Take-Away

While stagflation does not appear to be the base case for most economists, investors would be wise to consider how they might position their portfolio if its probability increases. In addition to gold, a stagflationary environment could benefit sectors with pricing power, including energy and materials or sectors that can pass on higher costs to consumers.

 

Suggested Reading:

Metals and Mining Second Quarter 2021 Review and Outlook

COLA Increases in 2022 Likely to Top $68 Billion

Digging Deeper Into Gold Investments

Recycling Li-Ion Batteries Through Bioleaching

 

Sources:

Analysis:
Stagflation? Recession? Bond Market Messages Puzzle Investors, Reuters, Yoruk Bahceli, August 6, 2021.

Stagflation
Portfolio Luring Managers Who Say Time to Act is Now, Reuters, Katherine Greifeld and Vildana Hajric, August 11,2021.

Stagflation
is ‘A Legitimate Risk’ that Would be Painful for U.S. Markets, MarketWatch, Christine Idzelis, July 26, 2021.

New
Coronavirus Wave is Giving Credence to the Risks of a U.S. Stagflation-Like
Scenario, Market Watch, Vivien Lou Chen, August 3, 2021.

Disco
Inferno: The U.S. Could Be Headed Back to ‘70s-Style Stagflation, Barron’s, Randall W. Forsyth, July 16, 2021.

Gold,
Stagflation and a Word About Basel III, United States Gold Bureau, Bill Stack, July 14, 2021.

 

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	Image Credit: Ron Latch (Pexels)

With Inflation Pushing Up the COLA on Social Security, Investing Where Seniors Spend Could Pay Off!

 

Retirees are likely to get a cost of living (COLA) increase greater than the last three years combined come January 2022. This will add up to an enormous amount of money. Many seniors have pent-up needs, after all, they’ve been tightening their belts as interest rates were pushed to near zero.  An inflation report last week (Aug. 11) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the first of three which decides how much additional cash they’ll have to spend. It’s looking good for those over 62.

 

COLA Math

According to the Social Security (SSA) website, the basis for increasing Social Security payments is the change in inflation measured by CPI-W for the months of July, August, and September. These months are averaged for the current year and that average is the effective COLA beginning in January of the following year.

 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Report, Released August 11, 2021

On page 4 of the BLS report released last Wednesday, we can see that for the month of July, the first month that is weighted in the formula, the basket of goods measured has increased by 6%. If CPI-W drops to 0% for August and September, recipients will still get a 2% increase. This is already higher than last year (1.3%) and the year before (1.6%). Estimates are that August and September won’t see price increases slow, this has led to a range of forecasts for the Social Security COLA to be close to 6%. In June CPI-W increased by 6.1%. If the trend holds, a near 6% increase would add to more than the last three COLA adjustments combined.

The SSA website shows that for the last three years recipients received 2.8% in 2018, 1.6% in 2019, and 1.3% in 2020. The increases, even with compounding, only multiplies out to 5.80%.  

The average social security recipient receives $1,553.68 per month. A 6% increase for this group would be $93 additional monthly. On the high end, the maximum paid is $3,895 which would increase by $233.70. Neither of these is enough to lease a new Tesla, so what will Seniors be buying? The amount of money isn’t as small as it looks. The number of Americans collecting Social Security payments is 61.5 million. At an average increase of $93 per month, this will place an additional $68.6 billion into the economy next year, all primarily 62-years old and up.

 

Take-Away

The inflation that the economy has been experiencing, regardless of whether it is transitory or persistent, is likely to supply over 68 billion in additional cash to the hands of seniors next year. This is not an insignificant number. If there are specific demands among this group, for example, travel, new car, electronic updates, medical supplies, fitness, those sectors could do well. That is to suggest if there are commonalities among this demographic as to where money will be spent, investing in “gray” sectors may be worth exploring as we approach 2022.

To comment on this and other articles, find us on the popular social media sites below.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading:

Understanding Family Offices

IRA Investments and Small Cap Stocks

Investment Portfolios are Checked Twice as Often by Millennials

Inflations Impact on Stocks, Four Scenarios

 

Sources:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html#:~:text=How%20is%20a%20COLA%20calculated%3F&text=A%20COLA%20effective%20for%20December,which%20a%20COLA%20became%20effective.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/cpiw.html

https://www.nasi.org/education/who-gets-social-security/#:~:text=About%2061%20million%20people%20collect,is%20receiving%20Social%20Security%20benefits.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

 

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