Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Exercised the earn-out. In 2021, Bowlero issued 11.4 million “earn-out” shares exercisable should the shares trade at or above $15 for a 10 day period. Given the recent price movement, the “earn-out” was achieved, and, as a result, Atairos Group and Thomas Shannon each received 4.9 million earn-out shares. Atairos subsequently sold the shares.
Increasing float. Atairos acquired the “earn-out” shares as part of the business combination agreement when Bowlero went public in 2021. Atairos could have sold up to 9 million shares under 144a, but only sold the exact number of “earn-out” shares. Atairos cannot sell additional shares until Bowlero’s next earnings date in mid-May. The sale of the 4.9 million earnout shares increased Bowlero’s public share float from 17.9% to 20.7% of total shares outstanding.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
To Show Banks at Risk, Michael Burry’s Picture Equals 1000 Words
Michael Burry has a well-deserved reputation for foreseeing approaching crises and positioning his hedge funds to benefit client investors. While he’s most famous for his unique windfall leading to and after the mortgage crisis of 2008-2009, the current banking debacle has him tweeting thoughts most days. His most recent bank-related tweet is worth sharing and, for most investors, needs some explaining.
Recently Burry posted a chart of some large banks and their insured deposit base relative to their Tier 1 capital.
@michaeljburry (Twitter)
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1)
To best understand this chart it helps to be aware that for U.S. banks, the definition of Tier 1 capital is set by regulators. It’s an apples to apples measure of a banks’ financial strength and easily used to compare bank peers. Overall it is the bank’s core capital, and helps to understand how well the banks financial infrastructure can absorb losses. It includes equity and retained earnings, as well as certain other qualifying financial instruments.
Unrealized Bank Losses
The sub-prime banking crisis of 2008 is different than what banks are struggling with now. The problem then was created by lax lending practices, including liar loans, floating rate mortgages with teaser rates, significant house flipping using these introductory (teaser) first year rates, and repackaging and selling the debt – often to other banks.
The current issue facing banks today is the prolonged period of rates being held down by monetary policy. Low rates makes for easy money and economic growth, but there is eventually a cost. The cost is overstimulus and inflation, then what is needed to fight inflation, in other words, higher rates.
Higher rates hurt banks in a number of ways. The most calculable is the value of their asssets, including publicly traded fixed rate obligations (Treasuries, MBS, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, other bank marketable CDs) all decline in worth when rates rise. The other way banks get hurt is that loans extend out when rates rise by a significant amount. As a bank customer, this is easy to understand, if you took out a 30-year mortgage two years ago, your rate is between 2.75%-3.50%. If mortgage rates move, as they did to 7%, the prepayment speeds on the loans extend out farther. That is to say fewer borrowers are going to add more to their principal payment each month, and those that may have bought another residence by selling the first and paying the loan off, are staying put. The banks had assigned a historic expected prepayment speed to each loan that represents their region, and the low rate loans are now going to take much longer to repay.
FDIC Insurance
Michael Burry (on assets as described above) used his Bloomberg to chart large bank unrealized losses to the potential for depositors to remove their uninsured deposits. Currently the FDIC is only obligated to insure bank deposits up to $250,000. Customers with deposits in excess of this amount (depending on how registered) leave their excess money at a single bank at their own risk.
It would seem logical for large customers and small, in this environment to check their own risk and bring it to zero.
The Wisdom of the Chart
The further up and to the right banks are on the chart, the more at risk the bank can be considered. This is because uninsured deposits equal more than 60% of liabilities, so prudent customers would move someplace where they are better protected.
However, if depositors do move money out of the banks listed here, the bank would have to either find new deposits, or stand to lose 30% or more by selling assets that are underwater because of rising rates. The banks are currently not easily able to go out into the market and attract money. Partially because we are now in a climate where even basic T-Bill levels would be high for a bank to pay, but also because there is less money supply (M2) in the system.
@michaeljburry (Twitter)
Take Away
Michael Burry is a worth paying attention to. His communication is often through Twitter, and his tweets are often cryptic without context. His most recent set of tweets, including one commenting on the chart outlines what is happening with a number of banks that find themselves in the unenviable position of ignoring the Fed’s forward guidance on rates and very public inflation data.
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For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Highlights from recent NDR. This report highlights investor meetings hosted in Southern Florida last week by Chris McCann, CEO; Tom Hartnett, President; Bill Shea, CFO; and Andy Milevoj, Sr. VP Investor Relations.
On the hunt for acquisitions. The company has made successful acquisitions during uncertain economic times, such as the acquisition of Harry & David in 2014, a year of sluggish economic growth. Management indicated that acquisitions is the best use of cash at this time, which may position the company for enhanced revenue and cash flow growth. Notably, the company indicated that it has always acquired for cash.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4QFY23 Results. Net revenue of $147.1 million came in above guidance of $136-$141 million, and our $138 million estimate. Expanded promotional activity negatively impacted adjusted gross margin, which declined 240bp y-o-y. GAAP EPS loss was $0.91, while adjusted EPS was $0.16, compared to EPS of $0.15 and $0.17, respectively, in 4QFY22, and our $0.15 estimate.
Improving Sales Trends. In the fourth quarter, sales trends at both Vera Bradley and Pura Vida improved over prior quarters, with Vera Bradley total sales down just 1% and Pura Vida sales down less than 5% on a year-over-year basis. Targeted customer retention efforts led to increased Vera Bradley e-commerce revenues, while Full-Line and Factory store revenues continued to be negatively affected by traffic levels. At Pura Vida, e-commerce trends improved over previous quarters due to strategic promotions.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Bottom Line Impacted By Special Items. CVG reported GAAP EPS of a loss of $0.98. Adjusting for one-time items, adjusted EPS was $0.04. Further adjusting for special items, high program start-up costs and foreign exchange, special item adjusted EPS was $0.14, or much more in-line with our $0.17 forecast, which did not include any of the above.
A Refined Long-term Roadmap. Management put out a more refined long-term roadmap with a goal of $1.5 billion of revenue and a 9.0% adjusted EBITDA margin for 2027. While the new revenue goal is below the previous $1.9 billion goal, the adjusted EBITDA margin rises from a prior 8.5%. We believe the updated road map reflects management’s goal of focusing on adding only higher margin growth and not just growth for growth’s sake.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Management Change. Yesterday after the market close, FAT Brands announced that its founder and CEO, Andy Wiederhorn, will transition to a new role as an outside consultant and strategic advisor to the Company effective May 5, 2023. Mr. Wiederhorn will remain a FAT Brands Board member and his family office, Fog Cutter Holdings LLC, will continue as the controlling shareholder of FAT Brands. The appointment of an interim CEO will be announced prior to the transition date, and Mr. Wiederhorn will continue as CEO until then.
Drivers. According to the Company, in transitioning from his role as CEO, Mr. Wiederhorn seeks to eliminate the distraction of the previously announced government investigation tied to him, and allow senior management to focus on continuing to drive shareholder value.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Top Line. Revenues were $234.9 million compared to $228.9 million in the prior year period, an increase of 2.6%. The increase in revenues is due to increased pricing to offset material cost increases. Foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted fourth quarter 2022 revenues by $6.3 million, or by 2.7%. New business revenue was approximately $20 million in the quarter, offsetting ongoing softness in the Industrial Automation segment. We had forecast revenue of $249 million.
4Q22 Bottom Line. CVGI reported a net loss of $32.0 million, or $0.98 per diluted share for the quarter, caused by non-cash charges related to tax valuation allowance changes, a pension settlement to terminate the Company’s U.S. legacy pension plan, and a $10.4 million non-cash charge in the Industrial Automation segment due to the modest outlook for the business. Adjusted EPS was $0.04, short of our $0.17 projection. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.3 million, up $0.4 million or 3.1%.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Veteran Restaurant Executive Will Assume New Position as Outside Consultant and Strategic Advisor
LOS ANGELES, March 06, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc. announces that its founder and CEO, Andy Wiederhorn, will transition to a new role as an outside consultant and strategic advisor to the Company effective May 5, 2023. Mr. Wiederhorn will remain a FAT Brands Board member and his family office, Fog Cutter Holdings LLC, will continue as the controlling shareholder of FAT Brands. The appointment of an interim CEO will be announced prior to the transition date, and Mr. Wiederhorn will continue as CEO until then.
In his strategic advisory role, Mr. Wiederhorn will continue to support the management team and the Company while focusing his time on the Company’s long-term strategy and capital allocation plans. In transitioning from his role as CEO, Mr. Wiederhorn seeks to eliminate the distraction of the previously announced government investigation tied to him, and allow senior management to focus on continuing to drive shareholder value.
“While I will be stepping aside as CEO, I will continue to support the growth and evolution of FAT Brands, including championing our talented executive team, which has over the past five years taken the Company from two brands to 17 iconic restaurant brands with over 2,300 units and systemwide sales of $2.2 billion annually,” said FAT Brands CEO Andy Wiederhorn. “In 2022 we were named Public Company of the Year by the Los Angeles Business Journal, due in large part to the hard work and dedication of our corporate teams and franchise partners.”
About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
MEDIA CONTACT: Erin Mandzik, FAT Brands [email protected] 860-212-6509
Fourth quarter sales of $235 million, a 2.6% increase year-over-year Net loss $32.0 million,adjusted EBITDA of $13.3 million, a 3.1% increase in adjusted EBITDA Continued price realization to offset inflation
Business transformation continues, record annual sales of $982 million In 2023, Company expects to realize ~$150 million in new business revenue Strong free cash flow and debt paydown exceeded target at ~$43 million
NEW ALBANY, Ohio, March 06, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CVG (NASDAQ: CVGI), a diversified industrial products and services company, today announced financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2022.
Fourth Quarter 2022Highlights(Compared with prior-year period, where comparisons are noted)
Revenue of $234.9 million, up 2.6% as demand and price increases came through as expected. New business revenues fully offsetting softness in Industrial Automation (formerly known as Warehouse Automation). New business revenue was approximately $20 million in the quarter and $130 million for the full year.
Net loss of $32.0 million, or $0.98 per diluted share was caused by non-cash charges related to tax valuation allowance changes, a pension settlement to terminate the Company’s U.S. legacy pension plan, and a $10.4 million non-cash charge in Industrial Automation segment due to modest outlook for the business. The Company no longer has a pension liability in the United States.
Adjusted EBITDA of $13.3 million, up $0.4 million or 3.1%. Our pricing actions, solid demand, and new business revenues in our three vehicle-related segments are fully offsetting slowdown in the Industrial Automation segment. Startup expenses on new business ramp-ups were high at $3.3 million in the quarter, but set the stage for a much improved 2023.
Price negotiations during the quarter secured further increases beginning January 2023.
Full Year 2022Highlights(Compared with prior-year period, where comparisons are noted)
Revenue of $981.6 million, an annual record for the Company driven by the three vehicle segments, current year contribution of new business revenue, and higher prices to offset inflation.
Continued to gain new business on a wider spectrum of Non-Class 8 vehicles, with a wider set of customers, and new products. The Company secured an additional $150 million of new business wins during the year; these wins are concentrated in our Electrical Systems product lines. One-time startup costs were expensed as incurred and were $12.3 million in 2022 vs. $6.1 million in 2021.
Operating income of $20.1 million, down $29.4 million, and adjusted operating income of $36.6 million, down $16.6 million. The decrease in operating income was due to the lag effect of price recovery on ongoing business and funding a bigger startup program (approximately $6 million higher). The Company’s price recovery efforts are fully offsetting the cost of inflation and have curtailed growth programs tied to high-cost startups.
Full-year 2022 debt paydown was $43.2 million, and net debt declined to $120.6 million.
Harold Bevis, President and Chief Executive Officer of CVG, said, “We had a busy quarter of completing a good amount of new business startups, and negotiating substantial improvements in our price recovery program. The Industrial Automation business remains small with a modest outlook, so we took the opportunity to close a plant, right-size our payroll, and right-size our inventory profile.”
“In 2022, we delivered record revenues, had a record amount of new vehicle platform startups, and secured another approximately $150 million of new business wins on an ever-expanding lineup of vehicles. We believe that we can continue to add greater than $100 million of new business wins per year. In 2022, we also exceeded our goal of paying down debt, reduced debt by $43 million and ended the year with $121 million of net debt. We remain focused on higher levels of EBITDA, lower working capital, strategic capex, and lower debt levels.”
“We have already doubled the size of the Electrical Systems business on a pro-forma basis. The secular growth of the Electric Vehicle market is helping us as there is a lot of vehicle development activity globally and we are in an opportunity-rich environment. Our goal is to be known as a nimble, high-service growth company and progressively add new targeted business, concentrated in Electrical Systems.”
“Our transformation plan is working and we are increasing the proportion of our revenues and earnings coming from our Electrical Systems business. Cumulatively, in the last three years, we have secured new growth with 300+ new programs and 115+ new and existing customers.”
“The 2023 cost reduction program is over $30 million, comprised of approximately 350 projects globally. We are committed to lowering our cost structure, mainly in the non-growth areas, and mainly away from high-cost countries. We believe we can accomplish $90 million of cost-outs over the next three years. The Company is also announcing an ESG program of which a primary goal is to reduce its carbon footprint by 50% over the next 10 years.”
“We are expecting 2023 to be a year of record revenue, higher EBITDA, continued free cash flow and debt paydown, $30 million of cost-out, and at least $100 million of targeted new business wins, concentrated in Electrical Systems.”
Andy Cheung, Chief Financial Officer, added, “We delivered another quarter of strong top-line growth and, we have taken major actions to position the Company for strong 2023 performance. We have incurred additional startup costs to support the ramp up of our biggest platforms. Additionally, we made several non-cash GAAP balance sheet adjustments in the quarter, exceeded the high end of our target debt paydown range, and achieved our working capital reduction targets for the year.”
We recorded the following special items during the quarter:
We completed the restructuring of the industrial automation business and as a result recognized a non-cash write-down of $10.4 million in industrial automation inventory.
As a result of evaluating our global deferred tax assets, we took a net non-cash charge of $14.7 million.
We recorded a charge of $8.1 million related to the termination of the Company’s U.S. legacy pension plan.
“Giving effect to the tax adjustments noted above, our actual cash taxes were flat in 2022 versus 2021 at approximately $4.0 million.”
Financial Results (amounts in millions except per share data and percentages)
Consolidated Results
Fourth Quarter 2022 Results
Fourth quarter 2022 revenues were $234.9 million compared to $228.9 million in the prior year period, an increase of 2.6%. The increase in revenues is due to increased pricing to offset material cost increases. Foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted fourth quarter 2022 revenues by $6.3 million, or by 2.7%.
Operating loss for the fourth quarter 2022 was $4.0 million compared to operating income of $6.5 million in the prior year period. The decrease in operating income was primarily due to special costs, including restructuring and an inventory write-down due to decreased demand in the Industrial Automation segment. Foreign currency translation also unfavorably impacted fourth quarter 2022 operating loss by $0.9 million. Excluding special costs, the fourth quarter of 2022 adjusted operating income was $8.4 million, down 1.2%. Adjusted operating income includes $1.8 million of higher than expected startup costs on programs which will benefit future periods.
Interest expense was $2.9 million and $1.7 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The increase in interest expense was due to higher interest rates, and a higher average debt balance during the fourth quarter 2022 compared to fourth quarter 2021.
Net loss was $32.0 million, or $(0.98) per diluted share, for the fourth quarter 2022 compared to net income of $2.6 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, in the prior year period.
At December 31, 2022, the Company had no outstanding borrowings on its revolving credit facility, $31.8 million of cash and $148.8 million availability from the revolving credit facility, resulting in total liquidity of $180.6 million.
Segment Results
Fourth Quarter 2022 Results (Compared with prior-year period, where comparisons are noted)
Vehicle Solutions Segment
Revenues were $142.8 million, an increase of 12.9% primarily resulting from material cost pass-through and increased sales volume.
Operating income for the fourth quarter 2022 was $3.7 million, a decrease of 26.8%. Primarily due to a lag in price recovery versus cost inflation and higher than planned start up costs. Excluding special costs, the fourth quarter of 2022 adjusted operating income decreased to $4.1 million, or 24.2%, as compared to the fourth quarter 2021.
Electrical Systems Segment
Revenues were $47.1 million, an increase of 23.1%, primarily resulting from material cost pass-through and contributions from new business wins.
Operating income was $5.4 million, an increase of $3.7 million primarily attributable to material cost pass-through and favorable volume. Adjusted operating income was $5.5 million, an increase of 103.2%, excluding special costs.
Aftermarket and Accessories Segment
Revenues were $34.1 million, an increase of 27.8%, primarily resulting from increased sales volume and increased pricing to offset material cost pass-through.
Operating income was $3.2 million, an increase of 69.2%. The increase in operating income was primarily attributable to the increase in pricing to offset material cost pass-through.
Industrial Automation Segment
Revenues were $11.0 million, a decrease of 70.8%, due to lower demand levels. Operating loss was $11.9 million, compared to operating income of $3.1 million in the prior year. The operating loss was primarily attributable to lower sales volumes and an inventory charge of $10.4 million. Adjusted operating loss was $0.5 million, a decrease of 114.5%. The business restructuring was primarily completed during the quarter.
2023 Outlook
According to ACT Research, 2023 North American Class 8 truck production levels are expected to be at 305,000 units and Class 5-7 production are expected to be at 242,000 units. Estimates from FTR for 2023 are 322,000 units, slightly higher than ACT Research for Class 8 truck builds. The 2022 actual Class 8 truck builds according to the ACT Research was 315,128 units.
According to Interact Analysis, the Global Off-Highway vehicle market is expected to increase approximately 4% to 6.2 million units in 2023 from 5.9 million units in 2022. Beyond 2023, the Off-Highway vehicle market is expected to grow in the 4-5% range. We expect our legacy business growth rates to be in line with this outlook.
Industry forecasts are expecting a 4% growth in 2023 for North American aftermarket truck parts. Compounded annual growth of 4.1% is forecasted for 2023-2027.
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation
A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures referenced in this release is included as Appendix A to this release.
Conference Call
A conference call to discuss this press release is scheduled for Tuesday, March 7, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. ET. Management intends to reference the Q4 2022 Earnings Call Presentation during the conference call. To participate, dial (888) 396-8049 using conference code 33489158. International participants dial (416) 764-8646 using conference code 33489158.
This call is being webcast and can be accessed through the “Investors” section of CVG’s website at www.cvgrp.com, where it will be archived for one year.
A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available for a period of two weeks following the call. To access the replay, dial (877) 674-7070 using access code 489158 and international callers can dial (416) 764-8692 using access code 489158.
At CVG we deliver real solutions to complex design, engineering and manufacturing problems while creating positive change for our customers, industries, and communities we serve. Information about the Company and its products is available on the internet at www.cvgrp.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements often include words such as “believe”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “expect”, “intend”, “will”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “project”, “continue”, “likely”, and similar expressions. In particular, this press release may contain forward-looking statements about the Company’s expectations for future periods with respect to its plans to improve financial results, the future of the Company’s end markets, including the short-term and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business and the global supply chain, changes in the Class 8 and Class 5-7 North America truck build rates, performance of the global construction equipment business, the Company’s prospects in the wire harness, industrial automation and electric vehicle markets, the Company’s initiatives to address customer needs, organic growth, the Company’s strategic plans and plans to focus on certain segments, competition faced by the Company, volatility in and disruption to the global economic environment, including inflation and labor shortages and the Company’s financial position or other financial information. These statements are based on certain assumptions that the Company has made in light of its experience as well as its perspective on historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate under the circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated results because of certain risks and uncertainties, including those included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. There can be no assurance that statements made in this press release relating to future events will be achieved. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results over time. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to the Company or persons acting on behalf of the Company are expressly qualified in their entirety by such cautionary statements.
Use of Non-GAAP Measures
This earnings release contains financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). In general, the non-GAAP measures exclude items that (i) management believes reflect the Company’s multi-year corporate activities; or (ii) relate to activities or actions that may have occurred over multiple or in prior periods without predictable trends. Management uses these non-GAAP financial measures internally to evaluate the Company’s performance, engage in financial and operational planning and to determine incentive compensation.
Management provides these non-GAAP financial measures to investors as supplemental metrics to assist readers in assessing the effects of items and events on the Company’s financial and operating results and in comparing the Company’s performance to that of its competitors and to comparable reporting periods. The non-GAAP financial measures used by the Company may be calculated differently from, and therefore may not be comparable to, similarly titled measures used by other companies.
The non-GAAP financial measures disclosed by the Company should not be considered a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. The financial results calculated in accordance with GAAP and reconciliations to those financial statements set forth above should be carefully evaluated.
Money Supply Numbers Show the Fed is Making Headway
Money Supply, as reported by the Federal Reserve, fell by the largest amount ever recorded. This significant year-on-year drop shows the Fed’s tight monetary policy at work. However, despite the dramatic decline of cash available to consumers, the pace of increase that led up to the twelve-month period was even more dramatic. This indicates the Fed is not even close to finished draining liquidity from the economy, which serves to push up the cost of money (interest rates).
What is M2, how does it impact spending, and how much lower can the money supply go to reach “normal”? Let’s explore.
The M2 Report
Data for January, released on February 28th, showed a negative growth rate of 1.7% versus a year ago. This is both the biggest yearly decline and also the first time ever it has contracted in consecutive months. The monthly rate of change has been falling consistently since mid-2021. As indicated on the chart below, it follows a historic peak of 27% growth in February 2021.
Money Supply is a measure of household liquidity, it includes household cash on hand, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. The level had been growing slowly, keeping pace with low inflation until 2020. In response to pandemic-related economic risks, the economy was then flooded with cash by the Fed. Like any other oversupply, this oversupply causes money’s value to decline – a recipe for inflation.
For almost a year, the Fed has been draining liquidity from the US economy. This includes the well-publicized retargeting of overnight bank lending rates which are accomplished by contracting the aggregate amount of cash banks hold in reserves. Draining liquidity also includes quantitative tightening by the Fed, not repurchasing maturing securities.
The Fed’s tightening is having an impact on savings and cash available to households. Although the consumer is still spending, the decline in savings makes the spending pace unsustainable. Unrelated to M2, but as important, is that consumer borrowing is up, and this, too, can not stay on an upward trajectory forever. The Fed’s actions have a lag time, but it is becoming obvious that there will come a point when consumers will need to change their spending habits downward. This is how inflation is expected to be reeled in, but it isn’t certain whether it is being reeled in at a pace where the Fed can succeed at reaching the 2% inflation rate goal – particularly in light of the last inflation number actually being higher than the previous month.
Where We Are Now
Although M2 growth rates declined at a pace shattering all records, levels are still abnormally high. To put numbers on it, Money Supply remains 39% higher than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, just three years ago. In other words, the amount of liquidity in the economy is still significant, and too much money chasing too few goods and services lead to rising prices.
The current M2 of $21.27 trillion is nearly $6 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic level. At this point, money in the economy has surpassed real gross domestic product levels, a momentous shift that first happened in 2020 when the Fed flooded the economy with cash as the pandemic hit.
All of this indicates the Fed is actually being patient despite the dramatic tightening over the past year. It also makes it clear that they are not done mopping up the Covid-19 monetary mess. And investors shouldn’t be surprised to see their resolve continue until balances are more in-line with moderate inflation rates.
Take Away
The still elevated M2, despite its record yearly decline, is feeding inflation. The Fed is making headway removing fuel to the inflation fire.
However, consumers that historically have continued to spend at near unchanged levels, even when their disposable income no longer supports it, do eventually adjust. When this adjustment occurs, economic activity will slow. That’s when the Fed will be on the path to winning its inflation fight. Then perhaps we may actually get a pivot in monetary policy.
ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Challenging Current Environment, But Future Remains Bright. In spite of a challenging 2022, ACCO delivered 1% comparable sales growth in 2022 as the Company continued to execute its strategic transformation, including expanding product categories, broadening geographic reach, and bringing innovative new consumer-centric products to market. This enabled ACCO to achieve market share gains with many of its brands.
Taking Action. For 2023, management’s top priority is to restore the margin profile through incremental pricing actions implemented in January of 2023, the restructuring initiatives undertaken during the fourth quarter of 2022, and the additional productivity programs that will be implemented in 2023. We expect these actions will drive margin expansion and profit growth for the full year of 2023.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Results. FAT Brands reported 4Q22 revenue of $103.8 million, up 39.9% y-o-y from $74.2 million in the year ago quarter. The increased revenue reflects the 2021 acquisitions and ongoing recovery from COVID impacts as SSS was up 2.7%. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $19.6 million in the quarter, down from $24.6 million in 3Q22. Net loss for the quarter was $70.8 million, or a loss of $4.29 per share, compared to a net loss of $19.6 million, or a loss of $1.38 per share, last year. We had projected revenue of $104.8 million and a net loss of $16.5 million, or a loss of $0.99 per share.
One-Time Items Impact. The quarter’s results were impacted by a number of one-time non-cash charges, including a $16.1 million non-cash reserve on employee retention credits, a $14 million non-cash trademark impairment charge, and a $20.4 million valuation allowance.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q Results. ACCO Brands posted net sales of $499.4 million, a decrease of 12.4% from the prior year’s $570.3 million. Operating income for the quarter was at $35.6 million versus $63.6 million the prior year due to lower sales volumes and higher inflation. Net income was reported at $18.8 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, compared to $53.5 million, or $0.55/sh, last year. We estimated revenue of $510.0 million, operating income of $47 million, net income of $26 million, and EPS of $0.28.
Revenue Segments. North America saw a decrease in sales to $225.7 million versus $271.0 million the prior year with operating income of $8.9 million versus $34.2 million a year ago. EMEA sales were $156.0 million versus $187.9 million the year prior, with operating income of $12.7 million versus $21.6 million. Lastly, International had sales of $117.7 million, an increase from last year’s $111.4 million, with operating income of $22.7 million, an increase over last year’s $20.9 million.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
