Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
FY22 Results. Lifeway reported record full year revenue of $141.6 million for 2022, up 18.9% y-o-y. Higher volumes of drinkable kefir, increased pricing, and a full year of Glen Oaks drove the increased top line. Gross margin of 18.9% was constrained due to increased raw material costs. Lifeway reported full year net income of $0.9 million, or EPS of $0.06, down from $3.3 million, or EPS of $0.21, for 2021.
4Q22. The fourth quarter was the 13th straight quarter of y-o-y net sales growth. Revenues came in at $35.8 million, up 15.7% y-o-y, but modestly below our $39 million projection. Lifeway generated $716,000 of net income, or EPS of $0.05, in the quarter, compared to a loss of $93,000, or a loss of $0.01/sh, in 4Q21. We were at net income of $1.1 million, or $0.07/sh.
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FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Board Changes. Yesterday, FAT Brands announced a nearly wholesale change to its Board. We believe the changes were made in an effort to help separate the Company from the ongoing derivative lawsuits and the government investigation, as well as give the still to be appointed new CEO a “clean slate” to execute the business plan. In addition, FAT Brands elected “controlled company” status for purposes of the government governance rules. While always a controlled company, FAT Brands had previously elected to follow the “majority of independent directors” rule. The move to “controlled company” status could save the Company about $1 million per year.
The New Board. Of the former directors, only Andrew Wiederhorn and Lynne Collier remain. Additions to the Board include five insiders, including Mr. Wiederhorn’s three sons, all of whom hold leadership positions at FAT Brands, and three independent directors — Mark Elenowitz, Kenneth Kepp, and Tyler Child.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
AMC and APE Now Have a Most Unusual Combined Stock Chart
AMC Entertainment (AMC – common) took a big hit on Tuesday (April 4), shaving over 20% off its per-share price. At the same time its preferred shares (APE) climbed over 10% as the so-called meme-stock movie-theater company announced it reached a settlement with shareholders over its planned stock conversion. The settlement with the group of mostly institutional shareholders allows management to complete its plan to convert its AMC preferred equity, or APE, units into shares of AMC common stock.
Where are the Arbitrageurs?
After the announcement that the case had been settled, AMC stock dropped, and simultaneously APE units rose to. Arbitrage opportunities may still exist for those that expect the price of the two share types to converge as the conversion moves even closer to reality with final approval still needed.
APE units began trading in August 2022 after management announced a unique dividend that paid each AMC shareholder one APE unit for every common share they owned. The APE shares eventually experienced the market pricing them at a steep discount to the AMC common shares.
The Complaint
At issue in the litigation was the claim that shares would be diluted without offsetting compensation to existing shareholders. It was initiated by a group of mostly large shareholders (think pension funds). The terms of the settlement, announced in a filing by AMC late Monday, will allow common stockholders to receive one share for every 7.5 shares held after the reverse stock split. The payment would represent around 4.4% of AMC’s stock, or 6.9 million shares.
“The settlement provides investors with additional shares in satisfaction of their voting claims, while allowing the company to move forward with its plan to pay down its debt,” plaintiff lawyers from Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann, Grant & Eisenhofer, Fields Kupka & Shukurov, and Saxena White said in a joint statement.
Management’s Goal
As of the end of 2022, the company owed $4.9 billion in debt. The settlement may allow the company to raise in excess of this amount which could go a long way in helping management reach its goal of ridding itself of debt.
A Word on Price Discrepancy
Arbitrage can occur when the price of preferred units is lower than the price of common shares, even though the ownership level is substantially similar, or if the dividend rate on the preferred units is higher. In these scenarios, an investor can buy the preferred units and sell the common shares short (i.e., borrow the shares and sell them with the hope of buying them back at a lower price in the future), thus profiting from the difference in prices.
As the price movement in the chart above shows, related arb. opportunity pre-announcement are likely to have paid well.
Arbitrage can also occur when the price of common shares is lower than the price of preferred units, even though the shares should trade in parity or the dividend rate on the preferred units is lower. In this scenario, an investor can buy the common shares, sell the preferred units short, and receive a higher return on investment by benefiting from the price difference.
There is not yet “final approval” on AMC’s next step. However, the shares and reverse split are shareholder approved and the settlement clears the way for the final board decision.
Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and retails home furnishings in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Logistical Services. It is involved in the design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of furniture products to a network of company-owned and licensee-owned Bassett Home Furnishings (BHF) retail stores, as well as independent furniture retailers; and wood and upholstery operations. As of September 16, 2017, the company operated a network of 91 company-and licensee-owned stores. It also provides shipping, delivery, and warehousing services to customers in the furniture industry. In addition, the company owns and leases retail store properties. It also distributes its products through other multi-line furniture stores, Bassett galleries or design centers, specialty stores, and mass merchants. Bassett Furniture Industries was founded in 1902 and is based in Bassett, Virginia.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
1Q23 Results. Bassett missed on both our top and bottom line projections as the hangover from 2022 continued. The Company reported revenue of $107.7 million, short of our $111 million estimate, and down 8.6% y-o-y. Wholesale revenue declined 16%, while Retail revenue rose 1.3%. Operating income was $2.7 million, down from $6.5 million in 1Q22. Bassett reported net income of $1.4 million, or $0.16 per share, compared to net income from continuing operations of $4.3 million, or $0.44 per share, in the prior year. We had forecast EPS of $0.30.
Operating Environment. The post-COVID operating environment remains challenging. While backlog levels have returned to more normalized levels, the Company continues to work through higher cost inventory as well as a shift in consumer dollars away from furniture. Wholesale orders fell 18% y-o-y in 1Q23, while retail written orders were off 16% y-o-y.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
New 501(c)(3) Organization FormedtoFurtherUnite Communities in Which Restaurant Franchising Company Operates
LOS ANGELES, March 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., a leading global franchising company that owns restaurant brands including Johnny Rockets, Fatburger, Round Table Pizza, Twin Peaks, Fazoli’s and 12 other concepts, is pleased to announce the official launch of its newly formed 501(c)(3) charitable organization, FAT Brands Foundation. Created to amplify the existing charitable efforts of its 17-brand portfolio, the foundation will partner with local non-profit organizations in areas in which FAT Brands has a presence to provide essential programs to help families and communities thrive.
“Giving back has always been a part of the FAT Brands DNA,” said Jessica Wiederhorn, President of FAT Brands Foundation and Head of Non-Traditional Sales and Partnerships at FAT Brands. “With our company continuing to grow in size, we wanted to take our charitable efforts to the next level by launching a new arm that more broadly supports our employees and customers’ beloved communities. We are excited to be officially live and to have the opportunity to become more engrained with local non-profits that are committed to making a positive impact in the markets where we operate. Our mission is wide-ranging so we can meaningfully serve each community on a local, specific level.”
The foundation was seeded with a $250,000 donation from FAT Brands upon its inception and will continue to receive support from its parent company to further the directive of the organization in the years to come. For non-profits interested in applying for a grant or for those interested in donating to the foundation, please visit www.fatbrands.com/foundation.
About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide.
AboutFAT Brands Foundation Founded in 2022, the FAT Brands Foundation was created to uplift and unite the communities in which FAT Brands operates. While the company’s 17-brand portfolio is deeply rooted in charitable initiatives both locally and nationally, FAT Brands, as an organization, is seeking to magnify those efforts further. The 501(c)(3) organization is aimed at partnering with local non-profit organizations to provide essential programs to help families and communities thrive.
Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Exercised the earn-out. In 2021, Bowlero issued 11.4 million “earn-out” shares exercisable should the shares trade at or above $15 for a 10 day period. Given the recent price movement, the “earn-out” was achieved, and, as a result, Atairos Group and Thomas Shannon each received 4.9 million earn-out shares. Atairos subsequently sold the shares.
Increasing float. Atairos acquired the “earn-out” shares as part of the business combination agreement when Bowlero went public in 2021. Atairos could have sold up to 9 million shares under 144a, but only sold the exact number of “earn-out” shares. Atairos cannot sell additional shares until Bowlero’s next earnings date in mid-May. The sale of the 4.9 million earnout shares increased Bowlero’s public share float from 17.9% to 20.7% of total shares outstanding.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
To Show Banks at Risk, Michael Burry’s Picture Equals 1000 Words
Michael Burry has a well-deserved reputation for foreseeing approaching crises and positioning his hedge funds to benefit client investors. While he’s most famous for his unique windfall leading to and after the mortgage crisis of 2008-2009, the current banking debacle has him tweeting thoughts most days. His most recent bank-related tweet is worth sharing and, for most investors, needs some explaining.
Recently Burry posted a chart of some large banks and their insured deposit base relative to their Tier 1 capital.
@michaeljburry (Twitter)
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1)
To best understand this chart it helps to be aware that for U.S. banks, the definition of Tier 1 capital is set by regulators. It’s an apples to apples measure of a banks’ financial strength and easily used to compare bank peers. Overall it is the bank’s core capital, and helps to understand how well the banks financial infrastructure can absorb losses. It includes equity and retained earnings, as well as certain other qualifying financial instruments.
Unrealized Bank Losses
The sub-prime banking crisis of 2008 is different than what banks are struggling with now. The problem then was created by lax lending practices, including liar loans, floating rate mortgages with teaser rates, significant house flipping using these introductory (teaser) first year rates, and repackaging and selling the debt – often to other banks.
The current issue facing banks today is the prolonged period of rates being held down by monetary policy. Low rates makes for easy money and economic growth, but there is eventually a cost. The cost is overstimulus and inflation, then what is needed to fight inflation, in other words, higher rates.
Higher rates hurt banks in a number of ways. The most calculable is the value of their asssets, including publicly traded fixed rate obligations (Treasuries, MBS, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, other bank marketable CDs) all decline in worth when rates rise. The other way banks get hurt is that loans extend out when rates rise by a significant amount. As a bank customer, this is easy to understand, if you took out a 30-year mortgage two years ago, your rate is between 2.75%-3.50%. If mortgage rates move, as they did to 7%, the prepayment speeds on the loans extend out farther. That is to say fewer borrowers are going to add more to their principal payment each month, and those that may have bought another residence by selling the first and paying the loan off, are staying put. The banks had assigned a historic expected prepayment speed to each loan that represents their region, and the low rate loans are now going to take much longer to repay.
FDIC Insurance
Michael Burry (on assets as described above) used his Bloomberg to chart large bank unrealized losses to the potential for depositors to remove their uninsured deposits. Currently the FDIC is only obligated to insure bank deposits up to $250,000. Customers with deposits in excess of this amount (depending on how registered) leave their excess money at a single bank at their own risk.
It would seem logical for large customers and small, in this environment to check their own risk and bring it to zero.
The Wisdom of the Chart
The further up and to the right banks are on the chart, the more at risk the bank can be considered. This is because uninsured deposits equal more than 60% of liabilities, so prudent customers would move someplace where they are better protected.
However, if depositors do move money out of the banks listed here, the bank would have to either find new deposits, or stand to lose 30% or more by selling assets that are underwater because of rising rates. The banks are currently not easily able to go out into the market and attract money. Partially because we are now in a climate where even basic T-Bill levels would be high for a bank to pay, but also because there is less money supply (M2) in the system.
@michaeljburry (Twitter)
Take Away
Michael Burry is a worth paying attention to. His communication is often through Twitter, and his tweets are often cryptic without context. His most recent set of tweets, including one commenting on the chart outlines what is happening with a number of banks that find themselves in the unenviable position of ignoring the Fed’s forward guidance on rates and very public inflation data.
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For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Highlights from recent NDR. This report highlights investor meetings hosted in Southern Florida last week by Chris McCann, CEO; Tom Hartnett, President; Bill Shea, CFO; and Andy Milevoj, Sr. VP Investor Relations.
On the hunt for acquisitions. The company has made successful acquisitions during uncertain economic times, such as the acquisition of Harry & David in 2014, a year of sluggish economic growth. Management indicated that acquisitions is the best use of cash at this time, which may position the company for enhanced revenue and cash flow growth. Notably, the company indicated that it has always acquired for cash.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4QFY23 Results. Net revenue of $147.1 million came in above guidance of $136-$141 million, and our $138 million estimate. Expanded promotional activity negatively impacted adjusted gross margin, which declined 240bp y-o-y. GAAP EPS loss was $0.91, while adjusted EPS was $0.16, compared to EPS of $0.15 and $0.17, respectively, in 4QFY22, and our $0.15 estimate.
Improving Sales Trends. In the fourth quarter, sales trends at both Vera Bradley and Pura Vida improved over prior quarters, with Vera Bradley total sales down just 1% and Pura Vida sales down less than 5% on a year-over-year basis. Targeted customer retention efforts led to increased Vera Bradley e-commerce revenues, while Full-Line and Factory store revenues continued to be negatively affected by traffic levels. At Pura Vida, e-commerce trends improved over previous quarters due to strategic promotions.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Bottom Line Impacted By Special Items. CVG reported GAAP EPS of a loss of $0.98. Adjusting for one-time items, adjusted EPS was $0.04. Further adjusting for special items, high program start-up costs and foreign exchange, special item adjusted EPS was $0.14, or much more in-line with our $0.17 forecast, which did not include any of the above.
A Refined Long-term Roadmap. Management put out a more refined long-term roadmap with a goal of $1.5 billion of revenue and a 9.0% adjusted EBITDA margin for 2027. While the new revenue goal is below the previous $1.9 billion goal, the adjusted EBITDA margin rises from a prior 8.5%. We believe the updated road map reflects management’s goal of focusing on adding only higher margin growth and not just growth for growth’s sake.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Management Change. Yesterday after the market close, FAT Brands announced that its founder and CEO, Andy Wiederhorn, will transition to a new role as an outside consultant and strategic advisor to the Company effective May 5, 2023. Mr. Wiederhorn will remain a FAT Brands Board member and his family office, Fog Cutter Holdings LLC, will continue as the controlling shareholder of FAT Brands. The appointment of an interim CEO will be announced prior to the transition date, and Mr. Wiederhorn will continue as CEO until then.
Drivers. According to the Company, in transitioning from his role as CEO, Mr. Wiederhorn seeks to eliminate the distraction of the previously announced government investigation tied to him, and allow senior management to focus on continuing to drive shareholder value.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Top Line. Revenues were $234.9 million compared to $228.9 million in the prior year period, an increase of 2.6%. The increase in revenues is due to increased pricing to offset material cost increases. Foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted fourth quarter 2022 revenues by $6.3 million, or by 2.7%. New business revenue was approximately $20 million in the quarter, offsetting ongoing softness in the Industrial Automation segment. We had forecast revenue of $249 million.
4Q22 Bottom Line. CVGI reported a net loss of $32.0 million, or $0.98 per diluted share for the quarter, caused by non-cash charges related to tax valuation allowance changes, a pension settlement to terminate the Company’s U.S. legacy pension plan, and a $10.4 million non-cash charge in the Industrial Automation segment due to the modest outlook for the business. Adjusted EPS was $0.04, short of our $0.17 projection. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.3 million, up $0.4 million or 3.1%.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Veteran Restaurant Executive Will Assume New Position as Outside Consultant and Strategic Advisor
LOS ANGELES, March 06, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc. announces that its founder and CEO, Andy Wiederhorn, will transition to a new role as an outside consultant and strategic advisor to the Company effective May 5, 2023. Mr. Wiederhorn will remain a FAT Brands Board member and his family office, Fog Cutter Holdings LLC, will continue as the controlling shareholder of FAT Brands. The appointment of an interim CEO will be announced prior to the transition date, and Mr. Wiederhorn will continue as CEO until then.
In his strategic advisory role, Mr. Wiederhorn will continue to support the management team and the Company while focusing his time on the Company’s long-term strategy and capital allocation plans. In transitioning from his role as CEO, Mr. Wiederhorn seeks to eliminate the distraction of the previously announced government investigation tied to him, and allow senior management to focus on continuing to drive shareholder value.
“While I will be stepping aside as CEO, I will continue to support the growth and evolution of FAT Brands, including championing our talented executive team, which has over the past five years taken the Company from two brands to 17 iconic restaurant brands with over 2,300 units and systemwide sales of $2.2 billion annually,” said FAT Brands CEO Andy Wiederhorn. “In 2022 we were named Public Company of the Year by the Los Angeles Business Journal, due in large part to the hard work and dedication of our corporate teams and franchise partners.”
About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
