The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) have jointly released a new policy paper laying out recommendations for regulating cryptocurrencies and crypto assets. The paper comes at the request of India, which currently holds the presidency of the G20 intergovernmental forum.
The policy recommendations aim to provide guidance to various jurisdictions on addressing risks associated with crypto activities, particularly those related to stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the paper does not set any new policies or regulatory expectations itself.
Stablecoins have emerged as a major focus area. The IMF and FSB warn that stablecoins pegged to hold a stable value can suddenly become volatile. This may pose threats to financial stability, especially as adoption of stablecoins grows.
The paper also examines risks from the fast-growing DeFi ecosystem. It argues that while DeFi aims to replicate traditional financial functions in a decentralized manner, it does not substantively differ in the services offered. Furthermore, DeFi may propagate similar risks seen in traditional finance around liquidity mismatches, interconnectedness, leverage, and inadequate governance.
However, the IMF and FSB continue to argue against blanket bans on cryptocurrencies. They state that policy should instead focus on understanding and addressing the underlying consumer demand for digital assets and payments.
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The policy recommendations could have significant impacts on crypto companies. Stablecoin issuers and DeFi platforms would likely face greater regulatory scrutiny and standards around risk management. Exchanges may see heightened AML/CFT rules, while custodial services could get more consumer protection and security requirements. Miners and infrastructure providers may also face new oversight on risks and energy usage.
Crypto firms would likely need to invest substantially in compliance to meet new regulatory mandates. While this could raise costs, it may also boost institutional confidence in the emerging crypto space. As crypto adoption grows globally, regulators are trying to balance innovation with appropriate safeguards.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum had a bad day. After gaining a lot of upward momentum from late June after Blackrock, Fidelity, and Invesco filed to create bitcoin-related exchange traded funds (ETFs), the volatile assets have shown cryptocurrency investors that the bumpy ride is not yet over. What’s causing it this time? Fortunately, it is not fraud or wrongdoing creating the turbulence. Instead, three factors external to the business of trading, mining, or exchanging digital assets are at work.
Background
On Thursday, August 17, and accelerating on August 18, the largest cryptocurrencies dropped precipitously. Bitcoin even broke down and fell below the psychologically important $26,000 US dollar price level before bouncing. While some are pointing to CME options expiration on the third Friday of each month, most are pointing to a Wall Street Journal article, and blaming Elon Musk, as the reason the asset class was nudged off a small cliff. There are other less highlighted, but important, catalysts that added to the flash-crash; these, along with the WSJ story, will be explained below.
Smells like Musk
What could SpaceX, the company owned and run by Elon Musk, possibly have to do with a crypto selloff? On Thursday, the crypto market had a downward spike around 5 PM ET. It was just after the Wall Street Journal revealed a change in the accounting valuation of SpaceX’s crypto assets. Reportedly, SpaceX marked down the value of its bitcoin assets by a substantial $373 million over the past two years. Additionally, the company has executed on crypto asset divestitures as well. When the reduction took place is uncertain, but cryptocurrency holdings have been reduced both in terms of the amount of coins and the value each coin is held for on the books.
Elon Musk’s reputation is that of a forward thinker, and one that embraces, if not leads, technology. He has significant influence over cryptocurrency valuations, often instigating pronounced market fluctuations brought about by Musk’s influential posts on his social media company, X. The reduction coincides with a similar crypto reduction on the books of publicly held, Musk-led, Tesla (TSLA). The electric car manufacturer had previously disclosed in its annual earnings report that it had liquidated 75% of its bitcoin reserves.
While it should not be surprising that two companies stepped away from speculation on something unrelated to their business or lowered support for the still young blockchain technology, it gave a reason for a reaction to this and other festering dynamics.
Wary of Gary
The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, is viewed as a “Whack-a Mole” to crypto stakeholders that prefer more autonomy than regulation. Every time the SEC gets knocked down as a potential regulator, it resurfaces, and crypto businesses have to deal with the agency again.
Last month, Judge Analisa Torres made a pivotal decision in a case involving payment company Ripple Labs and the Commission. Her verdict declared that a substantial portion of sales of the token XRP did not fall under the category of securities transactions. The SEC claimed it was a security. This judgement was hailed as a triumph for the crypto sector and catalyzed an impressive 20% uptick in the exchange Coinbase’s stock in a single day.
On the same Thursday as the WSJ article, the SEC showed its face again with a strong response to the earlier ruling. Judge Torres allowed the SEC’s request for an “interlocutory” appeal on her ruling. This process will involve the SEC presenting its motion, followed by Ripple’s counterarguments. This is slated to continue until mid-September. Afterward, the Judge will determine whether the agency can effectively challenge her token classification ruling in an appellate court.
The still young asset class, its exchange methods, valuation, and usage techniques, once they are more clearly defined, will serve to add stability and reduce risk and shocks in crypto and the surrounding businesses. The longer the legal system and regulatory entities take, including Congress, the longer it will take for cryptocurrencies to find the more settled mainstream place in the markets they desire.
Rate Spate
The eighteen-month-long spate of rate hikes in the U.S. and across the globe is providing an alternative investment choice instead of what are viewed as riskier assets. Coincidentally, again on Thursday, August 17, the ten-year US Treasury Note hit a yield higher than the markets have experienced in 12 years. At 4.31%, investors can lock in a known annual return for ten years that exceeds the current and projected inflation rate.
Take Away
The volatility in the crypto asset class has been dramatic – not for the weak-stomached investor. On the same day in August, three unrelated events together helped cause the asset class to spike down. These include an article in a top business news publication indicating that one of the world’s most recognized cryptocurrency advocates has reduced bitcoin’s exposure to his companies. The SEC being granted a rematch in a landmark case that it had recently lost, where the earlier outcome gave no provision for the SEC to treat cryptocurrencies like a security. And rounding out the triad of events on crypto’s throttleback Thursday, yields are up across the curve to levels not seen in a dozen years. Investor’s seeking a place to reduce risk can now provide themselves with interest payments in excess of inflation.
But despite the ups and downs, bitcoin is up 56.7% year-to-date, 11.1% over the past 12 months, 110.5% over three years, 300% over five years, and astronomical amounts over longer periods. Related companies like bitcoin miners, crypto exchanges, and blockchain companies have also experienced growth similar to that found in few other industries over the past decade.
The SEC May be Poised to Become more Accommodating to Cryptocurrency
In what is being reported as a developing story that can significantly impact securities and crypto regulation, rumors are circulating that SEC Chair Gary Gensler may be on the way out as head of the agency. The reports are pointing to Hester Pierce as the most likely person to replace him. How would this impact public markets and the future state of cryptocurrency regulation? We discuss these questions and thoughts below.
Background
Whale (@whalechart) is a crypto news provider with an account on the microblogging platform X. It is widely respected, with 363,000 followers. Whale announced this morning (August 14), “SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce is being considered to replace Gary Gensler as the head of the regulatory agency.” This small post (or tweet) has triggered waves of speculation about the upcoming course of securities regulation for both registered products and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Ms. Peirce is known for her strong support of innovation and outside-the-box thinking. She has been a commissioner of the SEC since 2018, appointed by President Trump. Pierce is a former academic and lawyer who has specialized in securities law and financial regulation. She is known for her views on the regulation of cryptocurrencies and other emerging technologies.
What the SEC May Look Like Under Hester Pierce
Peirce, who has a reputation as being pro-innovation, has been a bold advocate for embracing disruptive technologies like cryptocurrencies and blockchain. If the rumors are accurate and she does find her way to the position of top securities cop, it could signal a shift towards a more accommodating regulatory stance, with a leader whose thoughts on fintech and digital assets are known.
If the days are indeed numbered for the SEC’s current head Gary Gensler, the traditional and digital asset markets would mainly view this as a positive. President Biden’s appointee, Gary Gensler, has been a catalyst behind the intensified scrutiny and rule-making within the overall cryptocurrency realm. His time in the position has led the SEC’s tightening its grip on digital asset exchanges and clamping down on many Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs).
Gensler has been acting to protect consumers, but many critics argue that the SEC under his lead, has been led to too much interference in free markets. With Peirce potentially in the drivers seat, the probability of the regulator embracing crypto assets in a less restrictive way increases dramatically.
Those impacted the most by a changed SEC head have weighed in already with diverse ideologies and opinions. Advocates assert that her penchant for innovation could sow the seeds for heightened financial growth. They contend that a friendlier regulatory outlook might be the medicine needed to embolden new ideas and investors to explore new opportunities – this, they say, could give the economy a lift.
Those opposed to a Hester Peirce nomination warn against a looser regulatory environment that could leave investors exposed to heightened risks. Their call is for the SEC to remain a vigilant guardian of investor interests, standing as a wall against potential deceit or market manipulation.
As the news regarding Peirce’s probable elevation continues to spread on social media and in articles like this, the pressing question many market participants are trying to discern is, will the SEC take a gentler road to new tech innovations or will it hold overly tight to its role concerning investor safety? If the change happens, there could be a celebratory bump in the value of crypto assets and others.
The crypto-unit bitcoin holds out the prospect of something revolutionary: money created in the free market, money the production and use of which the state has no access to. The transactions carried out with it are anonymous; outsiders do not know who paid and who received the payment. It would be money that cannot be multiplied at will, whose quantity is finite, that knows no national borders, and that can be used unhindered worldwide. This is possible because the bitcoin is based on a special form of electronic data processing and storage: blockchain technology (a “distributed ledger technology,” DLT), which can also be described as a decentralized account book.
Think through the consequences if such a “denationalized” form of money should actually prevail in practice. The state can no longer tax its citizens as before. It lacks information on the labor and capital incomes of citizens and enterprises and their total wealth. The only option left to the state is to tax the assets in the “real world”—such as houses, land, works of art, etc. But this is costly and expensive. It could try to levy a “poll tax”: a tax in which everyone pays the same absolute tax amount—regardless of the personal circumstances of the taxpayers, such as income, wealth, ability, to achieve and so on. But would that be practicable? Could it be enforced? This is doubtful.
The state could also no longer simply borrow money. In a cryptocurrency world, who would give credit to the state? The state would have to justify the expectation that it would use the borrowed money productively to service its debt. But as we know, the state is not in a position to do this or is in a much worse position than private companies. So even if the state could obtain credit, it would have to pay a comparatively high interest rate, severely restricting its scope for credit financing.
In view of the financial disempowerment of the state by a cryptocurrency, the question arises: Could the state as we know it today still exist at all, could it still mobilize enough supporters and gather them behind it? After all, the fantasies of redistribution and enrichment that today drive many people as voters into the arms of political parties and ideologies would disappear into thin air. The state would no longer function as a redistribution machine; it basically would have little or no money to finance political promises. Cryptocurrencies therefore have the potential to herald the end of the state as we know it today.
The transition from the national fiat currencies to a cryptocurrency created in the free market has, above all, consequences for the existing fiat monetary system and the production and employment structure it has created. Suppose a cryptocurrency (C) rises in the favor of money demanders. It is increasingly in demand and therefore appreciates against the established fiat currency (F). If the prices of goods, calculated in F, remain unchanged, the holder of C records an increase in his purchasing power: one obtains more F for C and can purchase more goods, provided that the prices of goods, calculated in F, remain unchanged.
Since C has now appreciated compared to F, the prices of the goods expressed in F must also rise sooner or later—otherwise the holder of C could arbitrate by exchanging C for F and then paying the prices of the goods labeled in F. And because more and more people want to use C as money, goods prices will soon be labeled not only in F, but also in C. When money users increasingly turn away from F because they see C as the better money, the purchasing power devaluation of F continues. Because F is an unbacked currency, in extreme cases it can lose its purchasing power and become a total loss.
The decline in the purchasing power of F will have far-reaching consequences for the production and employment structure of the economy. It leads to an increase in market interest rates for loans denominated in F. Investments that have so far seemed profitable turn out to be a flop. Companies cut jobs. Debtors whose loans become due have problems obtaining follow-up loans and become insolvent. The boom provided by the fiat currencies collapses and turns into a bust. If the central banks accompany this bust with an expansion of the money supply, the exchange rate of the fiat currencies against the cryptocurrency will fall even further. The purchasing power of the sight, time, and savings deposits and bonds denominated in fiat currencies would be lost; in the event of loan defaults, creditors could only hope to be (partially) compensated by the collateral values, if any.
However, the bitcoin has not yet developed to the point where it could be a perfect substitute for the fiat currencies. For example, the performance of the bitcoin network is not yet large enough. At present, it is operating at full capacity when it processes around 360,000 payments per day. In Germany alone, however, around 75 million transfers are made in one working day! Another problem with bitcoin transactions is finality. In modern fiat cash payment systems, there is a clearly identifiable point in time at which a payment is legally and de facto completed, and from that point on the money transferred can be used immediately. However, DLT consensus techniques (such as proof of work) only allow relative finality, and this is undoubtedly detrimental to the money user (because blocks added to the blockchain can subsequently become invalid by resolving forks).
The transaction costs are also of great importance regarding whether the bitcoin can assert itself as a universally used means of payment. In the recent past, there have been some major fluctuations in this area: In mid-June 2019, a transaction cost about $4.10, in December 2017 it peaked at more than $37, but in the meantime for many months it had been only $0.07. In addition, the time taken to process a transaction had also fluctuated considerably at times, which may be disadvantageous from the point of view of bitcoin users in view of the emergence of instant payment for fiat cash payments.
Another important aspect is the question of the “intermediary.” Bitcoin is designed to enable intermediary-free transactions between participants. But do the market participants really want intermediary–free money? What if there are problems? For example, if someone made a mistake and transferred one hundred bitcoins instead of one, he cannot reverse the transaction. And nobody can help him! The fact that many hold their bitcoins in trading venues and not in their private digital wallets suggests that even in a world of cryptocurrencies there is a demand for intermediaries offering services such as storage and security of private keys.
However, as soon as intermediaries come into play, the transaction chain is no longer limited to the digital world, but reaches the real world. At the interface between the digital and the real world, a trustworthy entity is required. Just think of credit transactions. They cannot be performed unseen (trustless) and anonymously. Payment defaults can happen here, and therefore the lender wants to know who the borrower is, what credit quality he has, what collateral he provides. And if the bridge is built from the digital to the real world, the crypto-money inevitably finds itself in the crosshairs of the state. However, this bridge will ultimately be necessary, because in modern economies with a division of labor, money must have the capacity for intermediation.
It is safe to assume that technology will continue to make progress, that it will remove many remaining obstacles. However, it can also be expected that the state will make every effort to discourage a free market for money, for example, by reducing the competitiveness of alternative money media such as precious metals and crypto-units vis-à-vis fiat money through tax measures (such as turnover and capital gains taxes). As long as this is the case, it will be difficult even for money that is better in all other respects to assert itself.
Therefore, technical superiority alone will probably not be sufficient to help free market money—whether in the form of gold, silver, or crypto-units—achieve a breakthrough. In addition, and above all, it will be necessary for people to demand their right to self-determination in the choice of money or to recognize the need to make use of it. Ludwig von Mises has cited the “sound-money principle” in this context: “[T]he sound-money principle has two aspects. It is affirmative in approving the market’s choice of a commonly used medium of exchange. It is negative in obstructing the government’s propensity to meddle with the currency system.” And he continues: “It is impossible to grasp the meaning of the idea of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments. Ideologically it belongs in the same class with political constitutions and bills of rights.”
These words make it clear that in order for a free market for money to become at all possible, quite a substantial change must take place in people’s minds. We must turn away from democratic socialism, from all socialist-collectivist false doctrines, from their state-glorifying delusion, no longer listen to socialist appeals to envy and resentment. This can only be achieved through better insight, acceptance of better ideas and logical thinking. Admittedly, this is a difficult undertaking, but it is not hopeless. Especially since there is a logical alternative to democratic socialism: the private law society with a free market for money. What this means is outlined in the final chapter of this book.
About the Author:
Dr. Thorsten Polleit is Chief Economist of Degussa and Honorary Professor at the University of Bayreuth. He also acts as an investment advisor.
Worldcoin Crypto Project Launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman
In a revolutionary move, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman began rolling out Worldcoin on July 24. The cryptocurrency project aims to reinvent the way the world identifies living, breathing humans compared to AI bots. The core offering of Worldcoin is its innovative World ID, often described as a “digital passport” that serves as proof of a person’s human identity. But that is just the beginning of the project goals.
To obtain a World ID, users must undergo an in-person iris scan using Worldcoin’s revolutionary ‘orb.’ This silver ball, about the size of a bowling ball, ensures the legitimacy of the individual’s identity, subsequently creating the unique World ID.
The brains behind this revolutionary project are the San Francisco and Berlin-based organization, Tools for Humanity. During its beta phase, the project amassed an impressive 2 million users, and with the official launch on Monday, Worldcoin is rapidly expanding its ‘orbing’ operations to 35 cities across 20 countries.
In select countries, early adopters will be rewarded with Worldcoin’s own cryptocurrency token, WLD. This incentive has already driven WLD’s price to soar after the announcement. On Binance, the world’s largest, WLD reached a peak price of $5.29 and continued to trade at $2.49 (from an initial starting price of $0.15) as of 11:00 AM ET. Notably, the trading volume on Binance has reached a staggering $25.1 million.
The Role of Blockchain
Blockchains play a crucial role in this project, as they securely store World IDs while preserving user privacy and preventing any single entity from controlling or shutting down the system, according to co-founder Alex Blania.
One key application of World IDs is its ability to distinguish between real individuals and AI bots in the age of generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT, which are adept at mimicking human language. By leveraging World IDs, online platforms can effectively combat the infiltration of AI bots into human interactions.
Economic Implications of AI
Altman emphasized the economic implications of AI, stating that people will be profoundly impacted by AI’s capabilities. “People will be supercharged by AI, which will have massive economic implications,” he said.
One interesting example of what Altman believes AI can eventually provide is universal basic income (UBI), a social benefits program aimed at providing financial support to every individual. According to Altman, as AI gradually takes over many human tasks, UBI can play a vital role in mitigating income inequality. Since World IDs are exclusive to genuine human beings, they can act as a safeguard against fraud in UBI distributions.
Though Altman acknowledged that a world with widespread UBI is likely in the distant future and the logistics of such a system are still unclear, he believes that Worldcoin paves the way for experiments and solutions to tackle this societal challenge.
The launch of Worldcoin marks a significant step in the convergence of cryptocurrency and AI technologies, with potential far-reaching effects on how we identify ourselves and interact in the digital age. As the project gains momentum, financial market professionals should closely monitor the developments surrounding Worldcoin and its impact on the future of money.
The cryptocurrency developer Ripple Labs just won a legal victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that should provoke cheers from the entire industry, at least those that prefer that digital currency not be treated as a security. If crypto is not viewed as a security, the jurisdiction which the SEC has been pushing hard to cement, may fall apart. This ruling may eventually lead to any future legal framework for digital tokens being designed by the U.S. Congress.
Background
Ripple is a technology company that uses cryptocurrency and blockchain technology to offer financial solutions. Ripple and XRP are two distinct entities. Ripple is a fintech company that builds global payment systems, while XRP is an independent digital asset that can be used by anyone for a variety of reasons.
In 2020, Ripple was charged by the SEC on the grounds that the company illegally raised $1.38 billion in unregistered securities offerings. In a ruling on July 13 of this year, it was decided by a Federal court that Ripple Labs did not violate securities law by selling its XRP tokens on its exchange. This is being seen as the first major setback for the SEC in a decade of enforcement against the cryptocurrency industry. Other crypto firms accused of illegally operating digital asset exchanges can now explore ways to take advantage of the ruling.
This is an important decision that may alter the expected path of the entire industry. The SEC and the cryptocurrency industry which includes exchanges, crypto-mining, and the tokens themselves, have been at odds, with increasing heat on the industry, mainly by the SEC. Gary Gensler, who chairs the SEC, has described the crypto market as a “Wild West” riddled with fraud. He claims that most crypto tokens are securities. The regulator has been cracking down on crypto exchanges, including the top U.S. exchange Coinbase. If crypto is considered a security, it will fall under the commission’s oversight.
What this Means for the Crypto Industry
Crypto firms have long disputed the SEC’s jurisdiction but until last week had no supporting precedence from a court. This win provides much needed ammunition for the industry to reassert its claims.
U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in New York ruled that sales on public cryptocurrency exchanges were not offers of securities because purchasers did not have a reasonable expectation of profit that depended on anything Ripple did. This profit expectation was used as a key in determining if XRP was a security at the time.
Crypto supporters are viewing the decision as a watershed and the judge’s reasoning as a new line of defense for the others being targeted by the SEC, such as Coinbase, Binance, and Bittrex.
SEC APPEAL?
It remains to be seen whether the SEC will challenge the ruling in the 2nd U.S. Court of Appeals which could cause judges to delay hearing other pending and new cases that other crypto assets sold on exchanges are not securities.
Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty said in an interview with Reuters that the company “wouldn’t shy away from an appeal, because the judge was right on her core findings,” adding: “I believe any appellate court looking at this would amplify and endorse those rulings, which would certainly be welcome.”
An appeal is somewhat risky for the SEC. If the 2nd Circuit, whose rulings are binding on federal courts in New York, Connecticut and Vermont, adopts the logic in the Ripple ruling, other cases like the SEC vs. Coinbase case would leave the SEC without much of an argument. This could permanently eliminate any claim the Commission has to regulation over the industry.
With the district court having taken a sledgehammer to the main claim the SEC had to oversight, the industry may find itself subject to a legislative agreement. Especially with an SEC deprived of the argument that their legal cases were sound, there’s nothing to stop an acceleration of efforts to find a bipartisan agreement on a regulatory framework for crypto assets by the legislative branch.
“Proclaim Liberty” from Melania Trump’s new NFT releases ($50.00)
NFT Investments Benefit from Increased Activity
Do you remember Beeple? He’s the graphic artist who kicked off the non-fungible token (NFT) frenzy. More important than starting an NFT gold rush, the $69.3 million his piece auctioned for alerted many investors and businesspeople to other uses of tokens and blockchain technology beyond cryptocurrency. While the frenzy has simmered, the blockchain-reliant art form is still finding its place. Melania Trump, who owns an NFT company, released a freedom-themed collection in time for America’s birthday. The Ethereum based tokens will be watched closely, compared in price to previous releases, and may help rejuvenate some lost enthusiasm for NFT art.
Background
Non-fungible tokens are unique digital assets stored on a blockchain. Beyond art, NFTs can represent medical records, shipping records, music, videos, and can be adapted to most transactions that benefit from proof of something occurring. In art, the technology allows creators to monetize their digital creations and provide collectors with a method to own and invest in unique digital assets.
As with most art, value is subjective. As with any investment that is new, wild swings can be expected as a market value will be determined by the few initially involved. And these will include those that are extremely bullish and bid up prices, those that know that new thinly traded markets can be elevated by hype, and those that serve as the opposite of hype, they are openly negative on anything new or different. NFTs are no different – for example, nothing has yet openly sold for as much as Beeple’s piece.
Melania’s Place in the NFT Market
In December 2021, Melania Trump, less than one year out of the White House as First Lady, began her own NFT art provider. The themes have been beauty and patriotism and have been popular among collectors. However, since then, the prices of pieces sold and then resold have fluctuated widely in a market that has lost the world’s attention, and is far from maturity.
The Current NFT Release
Some say Melania Knavs, born in communist Slovenia, has gotten to live “the American Dream,” and can appreciate it more than most. Others say Melania Trump understands how capitalism works and is using it to make a buck off of her famous name. As it relates to NFTs, investors should probably focus most on the truth that Melania has brought attention back to this market and investors in NFTs themselves, or the blockchain technology that supports it, benefit. After all, anytime there is an increase of buyers and sellers in a marketplace, liquidity rises, and prices become more rational.
One week before USA Independence Day on July 4, the former first lady announced she is selling “The 1776 Collection,” a tranche of three thousand digital tokens priced at $50 each. Investors are asked to use their digital wallets or more traditional methods, including a credit card, to purchase digital creations.
Image: On December 16, 2021, @MELANIATRUMP tweeted this announcement.
Previous releases included the “Trump Digital Trading Cards” collection, which featured cartoonish images of the former president in unlikely scenarios, like standing on the moon. Her first edition of her collection generated more than 14,200 ETH ($26.3 million) in trading activity so far in 2023. The second edition has generated about $2.7 million over the same period.
NFT Investor’s Dream
The presence of high profile people are good for the maturation of the NFT market, and Melania Trump’s name certainly has been attached to NFT art. At the release of her third and latest collection, her June 29 announcement proclaimed it gives “collectors the ability to celebrate our nation’s independence while acknowledging America’s Founding Fathers’ vision of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” The announcement explained that “Each collectible represents an aspect of Americana and was deliberately designed to acknowledge the foundations of American ideals.”
Is Bitcoin Cash More Functional as a Currency than Bitcoin?
What cryptocurrency is performing better this year than Bitcoin?
The other Bitcoin, that’s what.
Recent headlines related to BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin ETF, followed by Citadel, Schwab, and Fidelity’s plans to create a joint crypto exchange, further legitimized the digital asset class at a time when it seemed under fire from the SEC. The combined news of such big players caused an epic rally in BTC. But it also put BCH (the lesser-known Bitcoin “step-child”) on the radar of crypto investors. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) experienced price gains far greater than BTC.
About Bitcoin Cash
Bitcoin Cash sprang to life in 2017 as the Bitcoin blockchain developers were torn between two directions. The divide was resolved with a split in order to address the disagreement. At issue was the scalability and transaction capacity of Bitcoin “classic”. There were two different schools of thought, the big blockers and the small blockers, each with different solutions. The big blockers felt strongly that larger blocks of transactions were best, in August 2017, a separate ledger for Bitcoin Cash was created, it has its own development team and uses big block design.
The split is often referred to as the Bitcoin Cash fork, it resulted in two separate blockchains, Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). The larger block size of BCH allows for more transactions per second.
Recent plans to include Bitcoin Cash on a new platform, owned by big Wall Street firms has ushered in a shift in market perception of the “step-child” cryptocurrency. Despite its being born out of dispute, Bitcoin Cash’s recent performance suggests that it is gaining traction in the eyes of investors.
The ticker symbol is “BCH”. However, some exchanges use the ticker symbol “BCH.X” to distinguish between Bitcoin Cash and other cryptocurrencies with the BCH ticker symbol, similar to “BTC” and “BTC.X” for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Cash is up 138% so far in 2023, with much of that gain coming since the BlackRock SEC filing for a spot ETF, and the Citadel/Schwab/Fidelity exchange announcement. The exchange, called EDX Markets, backed by financial giants, is not registered with the SEC but carries significant weight due to its powerful partners. The platform lists only four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash.
This exclusive list has been interpreted by the market as a vote of confidence or an ordaining of sorts of those digital assets that will endure. This confidence has become even more important as the SEC has intensified its scrutiny of other blockchain projects.
BlackRock‘s application to the SEC isn’t the only one. It apparently has set off a wave of Bitcoin spot ETF applications. Bitcoin ETFs will allow greater participation in the asset class. Thus the sudden bullish sentiment across cryptocurrencies
Key Differences
Block size: Bitcoin Cash has a block size of 32 MB, while Bitcoin’s block size is 1 MB. This means that Bitcoin Cash can process more transactions per second than Bitcoin.
Development team: Bitcoin Cash is developed by a different team than Bitcoin. The Bitcoin Cash team is focused on increasing the scalability of the blockchain and making it more user-friendly.
Roadmap: Bitcoin Cash has a different roadmap than Bitcoin. The Bitcoin Cash roadmap includes plans to implement features such as Schnorr signatures and Segregated Witness.
Overall, Bitcoin Cash is a different cryptocurrency than Bitcoin. It has a larger block size, a different development team, and a different roadmap. Whether or not Bitcoin Cash is a better investment than Bitcoin is a matter of opinion and what it is to be used for.
Almost No One Uses Bitcoin as Currency, New Data Proves. It’s Actually More Like Gambling
In recent weeks the asset status of Bitcoin has gained additional legitimacy as an asset but has done little to bolster any claim that it is a medium of exchange for goods and services. Does this matter? A Senior Lecturer on Economics and Society shares his thoughts on the present and future of Bitcoin and how that compares with its promise. – Paul Hoffman, Managing Editor, Channelchek
Bitcoin boosters like to claim Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are becoming mainstream. There’s a good reason to want people to believe this.
The only way the average punter will profit from crypto is to sell it for more than they bought it. So it’s important to talk up the prospects to build a “fear of missing out”.
There are loose claims that a large proportion of the population – generally in the range of 10% to 20% – now hold crypto. Sometimes these numbers are based on counting crypto wallets, or on surveying wealthy people.
But the hard data on Bitcoin use shows it is rarely bought for the purpose it ostensibly exists: to buy things.
Little Use for Payments
The whole point of Bitcoin, as its creator “Satoshi Nakamoto” stated in the opening sentence of the 2008 white paper outlining the concept, was that:
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.
The latest data demolishing this idea comes from Australia’s central bank.
Every three years the Reserve Bank of Australia surveys a representative sample of 1,000 adults about how they pay for things. As the following graph shows, cryptocurrency is making almost no impression as a payments instrument, being used by no more than 2% of adults.
Payment Methods Being Used by Australians
Reserve Bank calculations of Australians’ awareness vs use of different payment methods, based on Ipsos data.
By contrast more recent innovations, such as “buy now, pay later” services and PayID, are being used by around a third of consumers.
These findings confirm 2022 data from the US Federal Reserve, showing just 2% of the adult US population made a payment using a cryptocurrrency, and Sweden’s Riksbank, showing less than 1% of Swedes made payments using crypto.
The Problem of Price Volatility
One reason for this, and why prices for goods and services are virtually never expressed in crypto, is that most fluctuate wildly in value. A shop or cafe with price labels or a blackboard list of their prices set in Bitcoin could be having to change them every hour.
The following graph from the Bank of International Settlements shows changes in the exchange rate of ten major cryptocurrencies against the US dollar, compared with the Euro and Japan’s Yen, over the past five years. Such volatility negates cryptocurrency’s value as a currency.
There have been attempts to solve this problem with so-called “stablecoins”. These promise to maintain steady value (usually against the US dollar).
But the spectacular collapse of one of these ventures, Terra, once one of the largest cryptocurrencies, showed the vulnerability of their mechanisms. Even a company with the enormous resources of Facebook owner Meta has given up on its stablecoin venture, Libra/Diem.
This helps explain the failed experiments with making Bitcoin legal tender in the two countries that have tried it: El Salvador and the Central African Republic. The Central African Republic has already revoked Bitcoin’s status. In El Salvador only a fifth of firms accept Bitcoin, despite the law saying they must, and only 5% of sales are paid in it.
Storing Value, Hedging Against Inflation
If Bitcoin’s isn’t used for payments, what use does it have?
The major attraction – one endorsed by mainstream financial publications – is as a store of value, particularly in times of inflation, because Bitcoin has a hard cap on the number of coins that will ever be “mined”.
In terms of quantity, there are only 21 million Bitcoins released as specified by the ASCII computer file. Therefore, because of an increase in demand, the value will rise which might keep up with the market and prevent inflation in the long run.
The only problem with this argument is recent history. Over the course of 2022 the purchasing power of major currencies (US, the euro and the pound) dropped by about 7-10%. The purchasing power of a Bitcoin dropped by about 65%.
Speculation or Gambling?
Bitcoin’s price has always been volatile, and always will be. If its price were to stabilize somehow, those holding it as a speculative punt would soon sell it, which would drive down the price.
But most people buying Bitcoin essentially as a speculative token, hoping its price will go up, are likely to be disappointed. A BIS study has found the majority of Bitcoin buyers globally between August 2015 and December 2022 have made losses.
The “market value” of all cryptocurrencies peaked at US$3 trillion in November 2021. It is now about US$1 trillion.
Bitcoins’s highest price in 2021 was about US$60,000; in 2022 US$40,000 and so far in 2023 only US$30,000. Google searches show that public interest in Bitcoin also peaked in 2021. In the US, the proportion of adults with internet access holding cryptocurrencies fell from 11% in 2021 to 8% in 2022.
UK government research published in 2022 found that 52% of British crypto holders owned it as a “fun investment”, which sounds like a euphemism for gambling. Another 8% explicitly said it was for gambling.
The UK parliament’s Treasury Committee, a group of MPs who examine economics and financial issues, has strongly recommended regulating cryptocurrency as form of gambling rather than as a financial product. They argue that continuing to treat “unbacked crypto assets as a financial service will create a ‘halo’ effect that leads consumers to believe that this activity is safer than it is, or protected when it is not”.
Whatever the merits of this proposal, the UK committtee’s underlying point is solid. Buying crypto does have more in common with gambling than investing. Proceed at your own risk, and and don’t “invest” what you can’t afford to lose.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra.
With BlackRock filing for a Bitcoin-related ETF this month, and then Citadel, Charles Schwab, and Fidelity backing a cryptocurrency exchange, there is again talk of Bitcoin (BTC) more than retracing its previous all-time high. BlackRock’s proposed product is designed, as are other crypto ETFs, to trade like a stock. This helps satisfy those that want ease of trading, exposure of their qualified retirement money, and all investments on one statement. A consolidated statement is also a benefit of Citadel, Schwab, and Fidelity’s exchange plans.
This adds fuel to the momentum Bitcoin has relative to other assets.
Another reason for increased expectations for Bitcoin’s performance is, next year Bitcoin’s is scheduled to halve, sometimes called its “halving event.” This halving happens every four years as Bitcoin rewards to miners are cut in half (miner’s payout will be reduced to 3.125 BTC). The event is viewed as positive for Bitcoin’s price. This is because halving helps in reducing supply. Historically, halving has brought higher Bitcoin values.
Exposure to Bitcoin price movements are, for some investors, already in their traditional brokerage accounts, and when desired, has found its way into IRA’s and other tax-advantaged retirement accounts. This is accomplished using the strong correlation between Bitcoin mining stocks, and the trend and momentum of Bitcoins measured against US Dollar value (BTCUSD) .
Over the past month as Bitcoin rose more than double that of the S&P 500 as a percentage, many Bitcoin mining stocks crushed the crypto’s performance. Both Bitcoin and Bitcoin miners historically move in the same direction, but the magnitude varies.
Currently, many mining stocks are experiencing a much greater magnitude.
To demonstrate how mining stocks provide stock portfolios the overall direction of Bitcoin, but differ in terms of degree, the chart above plots four Bitcoin mining companies against the BTCUSD. The overall direction is visually correlated to $Dollar/Bitcoin percentage moves. However, there are huge variations in that performance. The top performer represented above is Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT). The New York-headquartered, large-scale mining business, with operations across the U.S. and Canada also acts as a validator of Ethereum. This is common stock and avoids the contortions and management fees of gaining exposure through an ETF, and of course, can be obtained through an investors traditional stockbroker. While Bit Digital rose 72.22% during the last 30 days, Bitcoin rose near 10%.
The weakest Bitcoin mining company pictured here is Riot. Riot has deployed one of the mining industry’s largest fleets of self-mining hardware. While the period represented above is only the past 30 days, Bitcoin strength is still represented in this laggard.
Take Away
The new possibility that BlackRock gets approval for a Bitcoin ETF and that a consortium of brokerage firms create a crypto exchange, is expected to lead to a growth in demand for cryptocurrency. Investors may be able to capture directional performance of Bitcoin using the stocks of Bitcoin miners, and have these assets listed on their current brokerage holding reports, and even house them in qualified tax-advantaged accounts.
The launch of a Bitcoin ETF could certainly help increase exposure to the token and drive up demand because it makes it easier for consumers to purchase, and crypto exchanges have also come under regulatory scrutiny as of late. If an investor is looking to accomplish this, they may wish to evaluate whether they can meet their needs using Bitcoin mining stocks.
Blockchain Beyond Cryptocurrency: The Potential of Distributed Ledger Technology
Does blockchain have a future beyond crypto? Since its beginning as the underlying technology for Bitcoin (BTC) and later other cryptocurrencies, blockchain has been the necessary, behind-the-scenes, engine that allow these fintech currencies to function. Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethereum (ETH), and even the 18 G20 countries developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) need blockchain to exist.
But what non-finance industries are being impacted or will be disrupted by blockchain? It is not with exaggeration to say blockchain has the power to revolutionize various industries and redefine everyday transactions, manage data, and establish trust. Long-term investing requires knowledge of current trends and where the future may take them. Below we explore many of the possibilities of blockchain aside from cryptocurrency and delve into its promising future.
What is Blockchain?
At its core, blockchain is a decentralized (no single control) and immutable (unable to be changed) ledger that records activity across multiple computers. This distributed character replaces the need for institutional intermediaries to ensure transparency, security, and efficiency. A person or an entity can function, even across borders directly, without the need for a middleman. Verification of activity is recorded and remains a part of a blockchain ledger.
Uses beyond cryptocurrency, or the speculative investment that crypto and non-fungible tokens (NFT) have become, include health care, finance, voting, real estate titles, and smart communities.
Health Care
The HIPAA Privacy Rule sets national standards to protect individuals’ medical records and other identifiable health information. It applies to health plans, healthcare clearinghouses, and healthcare providers that conduct certain medical transactions electronically. The purpose is to keep data ownership from improperly being passed and to maintain privacy in the industry. Current centralized systems are not able to meet the many needs of patients, health service providers, insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Blockchain technology enables a decentralized system for access control of medical records where all stakeholders’ interests are protected.
Blockchain systems not only allow healthcare service providers to securely share patients’ medical records but patients may also track who has accessed their records and determine who is authorized to do so. If blockchain-driven, all transactions can become transparent to the patient.
And blockchain-powered interoperability can enable the seamless sharing of medical data between healthcare organizations, improving patient care, research, and drug development.
Supply Chain Management
Complex global supply chains involve numerous stakeholders, some sending, others receiving, and others verifying the source of food or products. Verifying the authenticity and improving traceability of products can be a challenging task. Blockchain’s ability to create an immutable record of every transaction and movement along the supply chain enables transparency and accountability. A company will be able to securely track the origin, manufacturing process, and movement of goods. Consumers can be equipped with verified information, among other benefits, this will increase trust and reduce the risk of receiving counterfeit products.
Storing information regarding movement on a blockchain improves integrity, accountability and traceability. For example, IBM’s Food Trust uses a blockchain system to track food items from the field to retailers. The participants in the food supply chain record transactions in the shared blockchain, which simplifies keeping track.
Entertainment Products
As technology has allowed greater reproduction and distribution, including music and art, blockchain may provide creators with more control over their work. The whole entertainment industry may undergo a significant transformation with blockchain technology. Artists can tokenize their efforts, creating a digital certificate of ownership that can be bought, sold, and shared on blockchain platforms. This will enable artists to have tight control over their intellectual property, receive fair compensation, and even establish a direct connection with their followers. Beyond ownership infringement, blockchain can facilitate transparent royalty distribution, this could ensure that artists receive their rightful earnings without an intermediary and the cost that comes with anyone getting in the middle of a transaction.
The Energy Sector
Blockchain is likely to play a transformative role in all forms of energy. As renewable energy sources continue their trend, blockchain can enable peer-to-peer energy trading. Individuals and organizations will be able to directly exchange surplus energy with those expecting an energy deficit. This could create a decentralized energy market.
Smart contracts executed on the blockchain can automatically verify and settle transactions, ensuring transparency. This democratization of energy, if broadly implemented, could accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices, provide energy where needed, and reduce waste.
Governments
While the government is often the intermediary that the blockchain makes less needed or unneeded, recognizing the potential of blockchain to enhance transparency and efficiency in public services may become its greatest use. Land registries, taxation, voting systems, and identity certainty can all be improved through blockchain’s tracking and tamper-resistant design. Immutable records of land ownership can reduce disputes and increase trust in property transactions. Digital identities stored on a blockchain can streamline processes such as passport verification and border control, making them more secure and efficient. Blockchain-based voting systems have the potential to eliminate voter fraud, ensuring fair and transparent elections.
Potential
Much of what is described above has either barely been implemented or has not been put to use. This is a period in any technological advancement when most long-term investors would like to be involved. Efficiencies and improved products are poised to help the industries mentioned, and pure blockchain companies, large and small, can benefit from developing uses for their technology.
Despite its potential, blockchain technology still faces challenges. Scalability, energy consumption, and regulatory frameworks require further development and refinement. However, ongoing research and collaborations among businesses, academia, industry, and policymakers are actively finding avenues around these concerns, driving the maturation of blockchain technology.
Take Away
Blockchain is still in its infancy, and industries are just becoming aware of its power to help them. As the paradigm shifts, it could become a technology businesses could not imagine doing without. Blockchain’s decentralized, transparent, and secure nature makes it a powerful tool for revolutionizing healthcare, supply chain management, entertainment, governing, and energy sectors. As the technology evolves, we can expect innovative use and widespread adoption of blockchain that serves to elevate trust, efficiency, and transparency. And maybe the now-developed cryptocurrencies will survive within these changes.
Gary Gensler’s SEC Files 13 Charges Against Changpeng Zhao and His Company Binance
In a pair of press releases, one from the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the other from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, there were charges, allegations and answers fired back and forth. The SEC named the founder and CEO of Binance, Changpeng Zhao as a defendant in the suit. Binance quickly shot back how disappointed Binance is that 13 complaints were filed against the company.
Allegations
The SEC press release indicates that they are suing Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao for misusing customers’ funds and for diverting funds to a trading entity that Zhao controlled called Sigma Chain. It further charges Sigma Chain for engaging in fraudulent trading that made Binance’s volume appear larger than it actually was.
Among the charges, Binance is also supposed to have concealed that it commingled billions of dollars in customer assets, sending them to a third-party, Merit Peak, which was owned by Zhao.
The SEC filed the case in federal court in the District of Columbia. Binance engaged in “blatant disregard of the federal securities laws and the investor and market protections these laws provide,” the regulator wrote in its court complaint.
Binance said in a written statement that it intends to defend its platform and denied allegations that user assets on the Binance.US platform were ever at risk. “All user assets on Binance and Binance affiliate platforms, including Binance.US, are safe and secure, and we will vigorously defend against any allegations to the contrary,” the company said. Binance.US also said it would defend itself against the litigation.
Binance alleges that because of their size, they are a target for the US regulator. The company expressed concerns through a press release that despite cooperating with the SEC, that a reasonable amount of time was not given on the most recent 26 different requests, and that they may have been intentionally burdensome. Binance said that despite its willingness to do whatever was necessary to address the US regulator’s concerns and take whatever reasonable steps they could, the SEC would not share any evidence it might have regarding its purported concerns, and the SEC rejected attempts at engagement, instead going straight to court. “It is now clear to us that the SEC’s goal here was never to protect investors, as the SEC has claimed—if that were indeed the case, the SEC would have thoughtfully engaged with us on the facts and in our efforts to demonstrate the safety and security of the Binance,” according to a company statement.
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The “Who’s Who” of Tech and Finance Join Forces in Blockchain Collaboration
A new partnership between financial giants, tech behemoths, media monsters, and leaders in digitization just announced plans to launch what they call Canton. What is Canton? In a press release dated May 9, The Canton Network says it is “the industry’s first privacy-enabled interoperable blockchain network designed for institutional assets and built to responsibly unlock the potential of synchronized financial markets.” What does that mean? We’ll take it one piece at a time below.
The announcement describes the Canton Network as building toward being an interoperable blockchain with privacy features designed for the institutional asset management industry. It aims to allow “previously siloed” financial assets to be able to synchronize, making it possible to interconnect diverse financial markets.
The list of partners is a “Who’s Who” list of companies that are considered among the best in their individual specialties.
Canton Participants include, in alphabetical order:
3Homes, ASX, BNP Paribas, Broadridge, Capgemini, Cboe Global Markets, Cumberland, Deloitte, Deutsche Börse Group, Digital Asset, The Digital Dollar Project, DRW, Eleox, EquiLend, FinClear, Gambyl, Goldman Sachs, IntellectEU, Liberty City Ventures, Microsoft, Moody’s, Paxos, Right Pedal LendOS, S&P Global, SBI Digital Asset Holdings, Umbrage, Versana, VERT Capital, Xpansiv, and Zinnia.
The announcement proclaims that The Canton Network will provide “a decentralized infrastructure that connects independent applications built with Daml, Digital Asset’s smart-contract language.” The result will be “a ‘network of networks’, allowing previously siloed systems in financial markets to interoperate with the appropriate governance, privacy, permissioning and controls required for highly regulated industries.”
The Canton Network intends to enable financial institutions to experience a safer and reconciliation-free environment where assets, data, and cash can synchronize freely across applications. The end product will be opportunities for financial institutions to offer new innovative products to their clients while enhancing their efficiency and risk management.
An example provided by Canton is asset registers and cash payment systems which are distinct and siloed systems in today’s markets. With the new Canton Network, a digital bond and a digital payment can be composed across two separate applications into a single transaction, guaranteeing simultaneous exchange without operational risk. Similarly, a digital asset could be used in a collateralized financial transaction via connection to a repo or leveraged loan application.
Bloomberg calls the new venture “a collaborative effort that could be crucial to ledger technology in the finance market.” In addition, the group is striving to integrate “disparate institution applications,” which could have a positive impact on the entire industry.
The press release expalained that until Canton, smart contract blockchain networks have not achieved meaningful adoption among financial institutions and other enterprises because of three significant shortfalls:
The lack of privacy and control over data: other chains have shortcomings around privacy that prevent the use of the technology by multiple regulated participants on the same network. There are currently no other blockchains that can offer data protection or control at any layer of its network.
Other blockchains have had to accept trade-offs between control and interoperability: other chains require operators to forfeit their full control of applications by using a shared pool of validators to gain interoperability.
The inability to scale: with applications competing for global network resources and the inherent capacity limitations caused by how public blockchains operate, achieving the scale and performance financial institutions need remains challenging.
The Canton Network expects to remove these obstacles by balancing the decentralization of a network with the privacy and controls needed to operate within a sound regulatory environment.
The network expects to raise the bar on safety and soundness in blockchain financial interactions by enabling network users to safeguard permissions, exposure, and interactions across Canton, to comply with security, regulatory and legal requirements.
The network can connect innovative blockchain solutions in market today, such as Deutsche Börse Group’s D7 post-trade platform and Goldman Sachs’ GS DAP™, while retaining privacy and permissioning. As more Daml-built applications go into production this year and beyond, the number of connections on the Canton Network are expected to grow exponentially. For example, one application’s monthly notional traded exceeds the most active crypto token volumes.
Canton Network participants will begin testing interoperability capabilities across a range of applications and use cases in July.
The network will bring together blockchain applications built with Daml, the smart-contract language devised by Digital Asset. The team-up is the result of years of blockchain research and development by the tech and finance industry’s giants that are involved.
