Category: Aerospace and Defense

 

Can the U.S. Continue to Afford the Current Level of Defense Spending?

 

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the level of spending by the U.S. Department of Defense is similar in size to the next ten largest nations’ combined annual military spending and is larger than all but two dozen countries’ GDP. The U.S. Department of Defense budget will be near $700 billion in 2021. And this figure does not include many items, such as the $243 billion estimated to be spent on veterans. The U.S currently accounts for approximately 36% of the world’s defense expenditures. Presently the DoD budget represents one-half of all Federal government discretionary spending. Can the U.S. continue to afford this level of defense spending?

Budget Breakdown

Spending at the DoD actually accounts for only a portion, albeit the largest portion, of spending on “security” for the U.S. Expenditures at the Department of Homeland Security and Veterans Administration, as well as other agencies, are related but are not part of the DoD budget. The DoD budget can be divided into two key parts: base spending and Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO), which originated as a means of funding wars outside of the base budget. In 2020, the DoD budget authorization was $721.5 billion and included $69 billion of OCO spending. OCO spending has its critics, as over the years both Congress and the President have at times adopted more, and at times less, expansive definitions of OCO expenditures to accommodate the strategic, budgetary, and political needs of the moment. What is notable, however, is that since FY2001, DoD funding designated for OCO has averaged 17% of the department’s total budget authority, up from just 6% during the conflict in Vietnam.

The budget can be further broken out into its constituent parts. There are four main areas of spending: military personnel, which accounted for about 20% of the 2020 budget, although if you include benefits and the costs of civilians of the military payroll, this increases to over 39%, Operations and Maintenance, 40%, Procurement, 21%, and Research & Development, 14%. Unless the number of active duty members shrinks, it is unlikely that personnel costs decline. Weapons systems are more and more complex, use exotic materials, and must be able to function in environments like outer space. Could be another area tough to find budget savings. R&D is similar as researchers continue to need to seek out cutting edge technologies and weapons systems in order to stay ahead of the U.S’s peer adversaries.

Room for Reductions

Cutting the DoD budget has proven difficult over time. One only needs to revisit base closures to see how potential cost-cutting can be held back by political considerations. Obviously, a quick way to reduce the cost of defense would be to end the spending that drives OCO expenditures. Some of this is for funding the wars on terror and some for other causes, but in terms of just reducing current spending, this would be a quick means.

Take-Away

Looking at history, one can see that over time, with a couple of brief exceptions, defense spending has been on a rising trend since 1950, when the DoD budget was just over $100 billion in 2019 dollars to where we are today. However, as a percentage of GDP, 2020 Defense spending will be around 3.3% of normalized (i.e., non-COVID) GDP, a level well below the 4-6% of GDP range for most of the past 40 years.

 

 Suggested Reading:

A.I. and Skyborg Will Create Huge Tech Winners

Unmanned Momentum Continues with Recent $35 Million Award

Virtual Power Plants and Tesla Car Batteries

 

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Sources:

https://www.pgpf.org/sites/default/files/0053_defense-comparison.pdf

https://www.mapsofworld.com/answers/defence/top-10-countries-with-largest-armies/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2020/05/06/484620/pentagons-fiscal-year-2021-budget-meets-u-s-national-security-needs/

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/09/heritage-to-congress-pass-a-defense-appropriations-bill/

https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/IB4992.pdf

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R44519.pdf

 

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Tops 2Q Estimates; Future Remains Very Bright

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q20 Results. Revenue of $170.4 million and adjusted EPS of $0.08 topped consensus estimates of $165.2 million and $0.06, respectively, and our projection of $165 million and $0.03. The $170.4 million of revenue was just above management’s $170 million high end guidance while adjusted EBITDA of $15.3 million was near the $16 million high end guidance. Revenue was flat sequentially even though the majority of the first quarter was completed before COVID-19 hit.


Segments. Unmanned Systems revenues were flat year-over-year at $42 million although Adjusted EDITDA fell modestly to $3.0 million due to an increase in the mix of lower margin development programs. Government Solutions revenues fell to $128.4 million from $145.4 million and adjusted EBITDA dropped to …








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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Friday, July 24, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Skyborg Award

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Award. Last night, the Air Force announced Kratos had been awarded a position in support of the Skyborg Vanguard Program. Skyborg is an autonomous attritable aircraft capable of achieving a diverse set of missions to generate massed combat power, including manned/unmanned teaming. Last night’s announcement is a key milestone for Kratos in our view.


The Details. Kratos, along with Boeing, General Atomics , and Northrop Grumman have each been awarded indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contracts with a shared ceiling of $400 million for all subsequent competitively selected delivery orders in support of the Skyborg program. This was a competitive acquisition with …








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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Acquisition Rumors Drive Shares Up 11%

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Acquisition Rumors. Yesterday, various news sources discussed Lockheed Martin as a potential acquiror of Kratos. According to the reports, Lockheed Martin’s new CEO James Taicliet said in a Bloomberg interview published after the company’s earnings call that the company’s focus for M&A will be on “pure-play defense,” although the collapse in air travel has him “shying away” from any expansion into commercial aerospace, Dealreporter said. Back in mid-2019, the news service previously said Lockheed “could be a natural suitor for companies like Mercury Systems (MRCY) or Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS),” the report noted, adding that based on Taicliet’s comments that Kratos “may be the more likely of the two.”


Our Thoughts. Kratos has long been the subject of acquisition rumors and we do expect the long-term outcome for the Company is to be acquired by one of the Primes. A year ago, KTOS shares were above $24. Today, awards are closer but the stock is only at $17.85. We think management would need to see a price in excess of …








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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Can AI Skyborg Technology Create Unpredictable Yet Consistent Military Aircraft?

The word Skyborg conjures up images of Arnold and the Terminator movies. An artificial neural network-based conscious group mind and artificial general superintelligence system attempting to take over the world. (OK, technically in the movies it’s Skynet, not Skyborg.) So, what is Skyborg? And what are its implications for U.S. Defense?

According to the Air Force Research Laboratory, “Skyborg is an autonomy-focused capability that will enable the Air Force to operate and sustain low-cost, teamed aircraft that can thwart adversaries with quick, decisive actions in contested environments.” A key element of the program is the “loyal wingman” concept whereby one manned aircraft can control multiple unmanned aircraft, allowing for unmatched combat capability per dollar by lowering barriers to entry for industry and allowing continuous hardware and software innovation. Notably, however, Air Force policy dictates that people are always responsible for lethal decision-making. Therefore, Skyborg will not replace human pilots, but rather, Skyborg will provide human pilots with key data to support rapid, informed decisions.

To fast track this potential game changing capability, Skyborg was designated as a Vanguard program in 2019 by the Air Force. The Skyborg program topped the Air Force’s 2021 $3.2 billion Unfunded Priority List, illustrating the significance the Air Force is placing on the program. In 2021, the Air Force is expected to spend over $157 million on its three Vanguard programs, with an additional $25 million for Skyborg on the Unfunded Priorities List. By fiscal 2023, the Air Force expects to deliver the first operational versions of Skyborg.

Air Force Research Lab aerospace systems directorate engineer Matt Duquette explained the scope of the system: “Skyborg is a vessel for AI technologies that could range from rather simple algorithms to fly the aircraft and control them in airspace to the introduction of more complicated levels of AI to accomplish certain tasks or subtasks of the mission.” A major issue to solve is getting the AI up to speed. Skyborg requires more advanced systems than are currently available on the market. The system not only has to be more sophisticated than any AI available now but also has to be developed for a world that understands how it works. If the AI is too predictable, it is easy to beat, rendering it useless in a combat setting.

A key element of the Skyborg program is “attributable” unmanned aircraft. Attributable UASs blur the line between a reusable UAS (think an MQ-9 Reaper) and a single-use cruise missile. “Even though we call Skyborg an attributable aircraft, I think we’ll think of them more like reusable weapons,” says Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics. What this means in practice is that the new generation UASs will be reused until the end of service life, when they could then be turned into targets, or, depending on the mission, the UAS could go on a one-way mission if the pilot determined the target was important enough. This will result in a steady stream of UAS purchases by the Air Force.

Attributable aircraft costs are coming in in the less than $5 million per unit range. They compared this with the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the Lockheed Martin F-35, which costs around $100 million per jet. Four of these in formation means almost half a billion dollars of hardware in the air. Losing just one fighter is costly for the US Air Force’s budget, to say nothing about the potential human cost. Using attributable aircraft can potentially save millions providing enormous flexibility to the Air Force budget at a time when every dollar truly counts.

Skyborg will represent a significant upgrade in force projection. At a cost of a few million dollars per unit, the autonomous drones are more easily replaceable and could form a central role in the USAF’s air power. The F-35 is billed as a force-multiplier; when partnered with an UAS it could get a new capability boost.

If we needed another reason to look at AI technology or aerospace contractors as investments ready to take flight, here it is.

 

Suggested Reading:

Unmanned Momentum Continues with Recent $35 Million Award

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The Case for Silver

Enjoy Premium Channelchek Content at No Cost

Each event in our popular Virtual Road Shows Series has maximum capacity of 100 online investors. To take part, listen to and perhaps get your questions answered, see which virtual investor meeting intrigues you here.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Announces $250 million Stock Offering

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Stock Offering. Last week, Kratos announced a public offering of 13.5 million shares at $16.25/sh, raising $219.4 million, or $209 million, net to Kratos after underwriting costs and fees. Underwriters have the option to purchase up to an additional 2.025 million shares, which would increase the amount raised to Kratos to $240 million. Assuming the underwriter exercise in full, the additional 15.5 million shares equate to a 14% increase in the outstanding shares. All shares proposed to be sold are being sold by the Company.


Uses. According to the prospectus, the proceeds will be used for “general corporate purposes, including for potential strategic ‘tuck-in’ acquisitions, to further position us for projected growth from new and anticipated increased production and to facilitate our long-term strategy.” The funds will easily cover the $35 million cost of the acquisition of ASC Signal announced…








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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
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Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Acquisition Expands Satellite Antenna Capability

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

ASC Signal Acquisition. Yesterday, Kratos announced the acquisition of ASC Signal for $35 million. ASC is a manufacturer of high-performance, highly engineered antenna systems for satellite communications, radar, electronic warfare, and high-frequency applications. While details of the business size were not provided, we would note the business was running at a $50 million revenue rate back in 2016. Notably, the Department of Justice required the sale of ASC in order for Communications and Power Industries to proceed with its proposed acquisition of General Dynamics SATCOM Technologies, Inc.


Synergies and Expansion. The acquisition brings numerous synergies with Kratos’ existing core space business and expands Kratos’ industry-broadest offering of advanced products across the ground station segment. ASC antennas are used in a variety of mission-critical space applications, ranging from Telemetry, Tracking & Command to satellite communications and earth sensing and observation for military and…








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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Acquisition Expands Satellite Antenna Capability

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

ASC Signal Acquisition. Yesterday, Kratos announced the acquisition of ASC Signal for $35 million. ASC is a manufacturer of high-performance, highly engineered antenna systems for satellite communications, radar, electronic warfare, and high-frequency applications. While details of the business size were not provided, we would note the business was running at a $50 million revenue rate back in 2016. Notably, the Department of Justice required the sale of ASC in order for Communications and Power Industries to proceed with its proposed acquisition of General Dynamics SATCOM Technologies, Inc.


Synergies and Expansion. The acquisition brings numerous synergies with Kratos’ existing core space business and expands Kratos’ industry-broadest offering of advanced products across the ground station segment. ASC antennas are used in a variety of mission-critical space applications, ranging from Telemetry, Tracking & Command to satellite communications and earth sensing and observation for military and…








Click to get the full report.

This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

Raising Price Target to $11.00 from $8.25

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Raising PT to $11.00. We are reiterating our Outperform rating and raising our twelve month price target to $11.00 per share, up from our previous $8.25 price target. At our new price target, DLHC shares would trade at 8.7x our fiscal 2020 adjusted EBITDA estimate and 0.9x our fiscal 2020 revenue estimate, still significant discounts to its peer group.

Stock Outperformance YTD. After years of trading in the $4-$6 range, DLHC shares broke out this year, up 112% YTD, compared to a 7.8% decline YTD in the Russell 2000. In our view, the outperformance can be attributable to…









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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

Raising Price Target to $11.00 from $8.25

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Raising PT to $11.00. We are reiterating our Outperform rating and raising our twelve month price target to $11.00 per share, up from our previous $8.25 price target. At our new price target, DLHC shares would trade at 8.7x our fiscal 2020 adjusted EBITDA estimate and 0.9x our fiscal 2020 revenue estimate, still significant discounts to its peer group.

Stock Outperformance YTD. After years of trading in the $4-$6 range, DLHC shares broke out this year, up 112% YTD, compared to a 7.8% decline YTD in the Russell 2000. In our view, the outperformance can be attributable to…









Click to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Vectrus (VEC)

Strong 1Q20 Results

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. It operates as one segment and offer facility and logistics services and information technology and network communications services. The information technology and network communications capabilities consist of communications systems operations and maintenance, management and service support, systems installation and activation, system-of-systems engineering and software development, and mission support for the department of defense. The facility and logistics service include airfield management, ammunition management, civil engineering, communications, emergency services, life support activities, public works, security, transportation operations and others.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q20. Revenue of $351.7 million, up 7.9% y-o-y. Consensus was $337 million and we were at $350 million. EPS was $0.74, up from $0.62 in 2019. Consensus was $0.74 and we were at $0.69. Organic revenue growth was 4% and Advantor added $11.2 million. Management estimated COVID impacted revenue by $2.2 million and EPS by $0.02 in the quarter.


Revenue Up in all Geographies and with all Major Customers. Revenue in Europe grew 15% to $32.3 million, U.S. by 14% to $81.4 million, and 5% in the Middle East to $237.9 million. Revenue from the Army grew 9.2% to $247.6 million. The Air Force was up 8% to $73.3 million, and Navy revenue rose 1.0% to $15.2 million. The Company’s focus on enhancing its portfolio of clients and…









Click to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Vectrus (VEC)

Strong 1Q20 Results

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. It operates as one segment and offer facility and logistics services and information technology and network communications services. The information technology and network communications capabilities consist of communications systems operations and maintenance, management and service support, systems installation and activation, system-of-systems engineering and software development, and mission support for the department of defense. The facility and logistics service include airfield management, ammunition management, civil engineering, communications, emergency services, life support activities, public works, security, transportation operations and others.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q20. Revenue of $351.7 million, up 7.9% y-o-y. Consensus was $337 million and we were at $350 million. EPS was $0.74, up from $0.62 in 2019. Consensus was $0.74 and we were at $0.69. Organic revenue growth was 4% and Advantor added $11.2 million. Management estimated COVID impacted revenue by $2.2 million and EPS by $0.02 in the quarter.


Revenue Up in all Geographies and with all Major Customers. Revenue in Europe grew 15% to $32.3 million, U.S. by 14% to $81.4 million, and 5% in the Middle East to $237.9 million. Revenue from the Army grew 9.2% to $247.6 million. The Air Force was up 8% to $73.3 million, and Navy revenue rose 1.0% to $15.2 million. The Company’s focus on enhancing its portfolio of clients and…









Click to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Friday, May 8, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

A First Quarter Beat, But Lower Expectations for the Second Quarter

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q20 Results. Kratos reported revenue of $168.9 million, above the $164.0 million consensus estimate and our $165.0 million projection. Adjusted EPS totaled $0.09, compared to a consensus and our $0.07 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $16.3 million. Revenue came in at the high end of guidance, while adjusted EBITDA exceeded the $12-$15 million guidance. range.


Unmanned Continues to Lead the Way. US revenues of $42.0 million rose $7.1 million, or 20.3%, over the first quarter of 2019, driven by new target awards and additional tactical development contracts. Government Systems segment revenue increased $1.4 million to $126.9 million as organic growth in turbines, microwave, rocket systems, and cyber were offset by reductions in training solutions. satellite communications, and…





Click to get the full report.

This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.