E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Highlights From Noblecon19: An Improving Fundamental Story For 2024


Wednesday, December 20, 2023

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19. On December 4th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The fireside chat presentation conducted by Lisa Knutson, Chief Operating Officer, highlighted the dynamic value proposition of Scripps Sports, favorable retransmission trends, implications of the Disney/Charter deal and green shoots in advertising. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here: https://www.channelchek.com/videos/e-w-scripps-noblecon19-replay

Favorable sports model. Scripps Sports employs a unique model that offers sports teams wider viewership than the traditional Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) model that is now failing. Management indicated that its two NHL sports licenses for the Arizona Coyotes and the Vegas Golden Knights will account for a 4% point increase in its core advertising in Q4 and 3% for full year 2024.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Some More Business


Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Continued Momentum. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock received some additional awards, according to the Department of Defense daily contract release. While value of one of the awards is more nuanced than the DOD release statement, combined, the two recent awards total some $66 million over a three-year period. Great Lakes continues to build momentum in securing new business, which will bode well for 2024 and beyond.

Jacksonville. Yesterday, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers awarded Great Lakes a $32.4 million firm-fixed-price contract for shore protection and beach renourishment. Work will be performed in Jacksonville, Florida, with an estimated completion date of October 13, 2024. Fiscal 2023 civil construction funds in the amount of $32.4 million were obligated at the time of the award.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Highlights From Noblecon19: A National Recovery Play


Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19. On December 4th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Frank Lopez-Balboa, CFO, highlighted the company’s digital growth initiatives, debt reduction focus and provided insight into the current advertising environment. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here: https://www.channelchek.com/videos/cumulus-media-noblecon19-replay.

Digital growth initiatives. Management highlighted its digital growth strategy and key drivers for podcasting and digital marketing services (DMS) growth. Importantly, 50% of digital revenues are derived from national adverting, thus an improvement in the national advertising environment would positively impact digital revenue. Notably, the company has increased its focus on growing its hyper-local Digital Marketing Services business, a development we view favorably.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AdTheorent (ADTH) – Highlights From Noblecon19: A Swing Towards Growth


Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19. On December 4th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Patrick Elliott highlighted the company’s award winning machine learning technology and sizeable opportunities for company growth. A replay of the presentation can be viewed at: https://www.channelchek.com/videos/adtheorent-noblecon19-replay

Favorable growth trends. The company is experiencing a number of favorable growth trends. Notably, the company’s self-service platform was its fastest growing product offering in 2023 and is expected to be a significant driver of growth in 2024. Additionally, the company is well positioned to benefit from the growing usage of Connected TV (CTV) and has sizeable room for growth in its healthcare vertical.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD) – Addressing Unmet Anticoagulation Needs In Orphan Populations


Monday, December 18, 2023

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating Coverage Of CVKD.  Cadrenal Therapeutics is developing tecarfarin, an oral anticoagulant for prevention of systemic thromboembolism (blood clots) in rare medical conditions where patients cannot take the commonly prescribed oral anticoagulants. The only available therapy is warfarin, a drug with wide variations in bloodstream levels that requires frequent monitoring to prevent side effects including excessive bleeding risk.

Phase 3 Trial Is Expected In 2024. The lead orphan indication for tecarfarin is in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) with atrial fibrillation (AFib, irregular heartbeat). The ACTOR-AF Phase 3 trial has been designed as a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study testing tecarfarin against placebo. The amended protocol is expected to be submitted in 1H24 to allow patient treatment to begin in 2H24.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Extension of Credit Facility


Monday, December 18, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Amendment to Facility. Last week, GEO announced the Company closed on a Refinancing Revolving Credit Commitments Amendment to its Credit Agreement dated August 19, 2022. The amendment provides the refinancing of all of GEO’s outstanding revolving credit facility commitments.

Terms of the Amendment. The amendment provides for approximately $265 million in refinancing revolving credit commitments maturing on March 23, 2027. Prior to the amendment, a portion of the Company’s revolving credit commitments matured on May 17, 2024. The interest rate on outstanding revolving credit loans are determined with reference to the Company’s total leverage ratio. As of the release, the rate is a SOFR based rate (or roughly 5.31% as of December 15, 2023) plus 3.00% per annum. The Company currently has no outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, as amended.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) – Changing Preferred Terms to Enhance Flexibility


Monday, December 18, 2023

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Enhancing Flexibility. Last week, Comtech filed a form 8-K revealing changes in the terms of its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock to enhance the Company’s financial flexibility. Essentially, Comtech is exchanging on a one-for-one basis the existing Series A Convertible Preferred shares for a new class of Series A-1 Convertible Preferred. With Comtech deep in negotiations to refinance its credit facility, any additional flexibility is a positive, in our view.

Ability to Raise $50 Million. For Comtech, the key change is the ability to issue up to $50 million of shares of common stock without the consent of the preferred holders, anytime through October 31, 2024. We would anticipate any funds raised through the issuance of new equity to be used to de-lever the Company.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Highlights From Noblecon19; Compelling Total Return Vehicle


Friday, December 15, 2023

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19 highlights. On December 5th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Stuart Rosenstein, CFO, and Claire Yenicay, VP Business Development, highlighted the company’s strong cash flow generating ability of its hyper-local digital and legacy broadcast radio businesses. Notably, the company stands to benefit from high margin political revenue and prospective improved advertising environment in 2024.

Digital growth engine. The company is focused on growing its digital businesses, which have been a catalyst for revenue and cash flow growth for the past several years. In Q3 digital revenues accounted for 52% of total company revenue, and are anticipated to account for a greater percentage in the future. Notably, the company’s fastest growing business segment, programmatic advertising, is benefitting from the rising popularity of CTV.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG) – A Surprisingly Low Stock Valuation


Friday, December 15, 2023

QuantaSing is a leading online service provider in China dedicated to improving people’s quality of life and well-being by providing lifelong personal learning and development opportunities. The Company is the largest service provider in China’s online adult learning market and China’s adult personal interest learning market in terms of revenue, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan based on data from 2022. By leveraging its proprietary tools and technology, QuantaSing offers easy-to-understand, affordable, and accessible online courses to adult learners under a variety of brands, including QiNiu, JiangZhen and QianChi, empowering users to pursue personal development. Leveraging its extensive experience in individual online learning services, the Company has also expanded its services to corporate clients including, among others, marketing services and enterprise talent management services.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fiscal Q1 revenue growth. The company reported fiscal 2024 Q1 revenue of RMB869.1 million, 11% better than our estimate and a 32% increase over the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA of RMB71.5 million was below our estimate of RMB90.5 million.

Other Personal Interest Courses at forefront. The impressive revenue growth was driven by the Other Personal Interest Courses category, which was up RMB292.5 million over the prior year period. Importantly, we expect the Other Personal Interest category to be the main revenue growth driver for the company over the short term.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

V2X (VVX) – NobleCon19 Presentation Notes


Thursday, December 14, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon19. V2X CEO Chuck Prow presented at NobleCon19. Highlights included are its backlog, organic growth strategy through its segments in Aerospace Solutions, Advanced Technology, and Global Mission Training & Sustainment, and reducing debt. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/v2x-noblecon19-replay.

Backlog. The Company’s total backlog is about $13.3 billion, a record for V2X, and translates to approximately three years of revenue, based on the Company’s revenue guidance mid-point. The backlog also does not have any single contract re-compete risk of more than 2% of revenue for the next 24 months.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – NobleCon19 Presentation Notes


Thursday, December 14, 2023

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon19. The ODP Corporation CFO Anthony Scaglione presented at NobleCon19. Highlights included are the optimization of Office Depot, growth drivers in Varis and Veyer, and returning value to shareholders. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-odp-corporation-noblecon19-replay.

Office Depot. The Company discussed the optimization of its store footprint from a current store count of roughly 930 stores to 800-900 stores by 2025. These stores, which the optimization should reduce costs, in our view, mixed with the eCommerce website, provide ODP with strong free cash flow generation to be deployed in its faster growing segments, Varis and Veyer.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – NobleCon19 Presentation Notes


Thursday, December 14, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon19. The GEO Group CFO Brian Evans presented at NobleCon19. Highlights included the ongoing rise in detainee populations, the continuing challenges of aging facilities and staffing for state correctional agencies, and GEO’s debt reduction efforts. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-geo-group-noblecon19-replay.

Populations. ICE populations move upward and, with recent requests for additional beds, GEO should see incremental benefit, in our view. Border crossings are not slowing to any significant degree, suggesting the the need for additional private sector beds could have a longer tail than expected.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG) – A Good Start


Thursday, December 14, 2023

QuantaSing is a leading online service provider in China dedicated to improving people’s quality of life and well-being by providing lifelong personal learning and development opportunities. The Company is the largest service provider in China’s online adult learning market and China’s adult personal interest learning market in terms of revenue, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan based on data from 2022. By leveraging its proprietary tools and technology, QuantaSing offers easy-to-understand, affordable, and accessible online courses to adult learners under a variety of brands, including QiNiu, JiangZhen and QianChi, empowering users to pursue personal development. Leveraging its extensive experience in individual online learning services, the Company has also expanded its services to corporate clients including, among others, marketing services and enterprise talent management services.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong fiscal Q1 revenue growth. The company reported fiscal 2024 Q1 revenue of RMB869.1 million, 11% better than our estimate and a 32% increase over the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA of RMB71.5 million was below our estimate of RMB90.5 million. Figure #1 Fiscal Q1 Results illustrates the company’s performance in the quarter.

Other Personal Interest Courses scaling. The impressive revenue growth was driven by the Other Personal Interest Courses category, which was up RMB292.5 million over the prior year period. Importantly, we expect the Other Personal Interest category to be the main revenue growth driver for the company over the short term.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.