cpereira@noblefcm.com, Author at Channelchek

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Timeliness Appears To Have Improved

Posted on December 17, 2024December 17, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Digital revenue trends are improving. On December 4, Stu Rosenstein, CFO, presented at NobleCon20 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here. Notably, we believe the company’s digital businesses are gaining momentum, and we anticipate an acceleration of revenue growth for Ignite and a swing towards positive growth for Interactive.

Townsquare Interactive posed to turn the corner toward revenue growth. Notably, the company’s Interactive business has been experiencing improving revenue trends and net subscriber growth throughout 2024. Furthermore, we believe the interactive business has turned the corner in Q3 and will swing towards positive revenue growth in Q4.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

The GEO Group (GEO) – An Investment and a Leadership Change

Posted on December 17, 2024December 17, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Ramping Up. The GEO Group announced a $70 million investment to expand the Company’s detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”). Already the largest services provider to ICE, GEO is currently providing approximately 21,000 detention beds (with a present census of 14,000) at 16 ICE Processing Centers with the ability to expand to a minimum of 32,000 beds at 23 facilities.

Financing. To help offset the $70 million investment in capital expenditures and further reduce debt, GEO intends to pursue the possible sale of several underperforming company-owned state correctional facilities. Any potential sale of facilities will depend, at least partially, on valuation, but we view this positively.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) – A New Chapter as Lucky Strike

Posted on December 17, 2024December 17, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Lucky Strike Entertainment is one of the world’s premier location-based entertainment platforms. With over 360 locations across North America, Lucky Strike Entertainment provides experiential offerings in bowling, amusements, water parks, and family entertainment centers. The company also owns the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling and a growing media property that boasts millions of fans around the globe. For more information on Lucky Strike Entertainment, please visit ir.luckystrikeent.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Complete rebrand to Lucky Strike. On December 12, the company announced that it had completed its recently announced rebranding to Lucky Strike Entertainment, which was effective on December 16th. The newly branded company will trade on the NYSE under the symbol “LUCK” as of today.

An acquired brand. The company acquired Lucky Strike Entertainment in September of last year. At that time, management noted that the company would test the brand strength of Lucky Strike in comparison with the Bowlero brand. We believe that Lucky Strike has a strong brand presence and is a compelling change for the company.

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Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) – Late 1Q25 Financials

Posted on December 17, 2024December 17, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A NT10-Q. Comtech missed the deadline for filing its 10-Q for the period ended October 31, 2024, the first quarter of the Company’s fiscal 2025. Unfortunately, this is another late filing, following an NT10-K for the 2024 fiscal year and an NT10-Q for the fiscal third quarter of 2024. We are hopeful the Company will be able to file the required documents shortly.

Reasons. According to the 12b-25 filing, Comtech is unable to file on a timely basis due to “the Company’s ongoing efforts to finalize its condensed consolidated financial statements, which include: (i) its recoverability assessments of (x) receivables and contract assets related to a certain international reseller of our troposcatter technologies, and (y) goodwill and certain long-lived assets due to the Company’s ongoing evaluation of its strategic transformation plans; and (ii) the accounting for and presentation of certain debt instruments and exchanges of convertible preferred shares.”

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – A Closer Look At The Recent Quarter

Posted on December 16, 2024December 16, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Monday, December 16, 2024

500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q3 Results. The company reported favorable Q3 revenue of $80.2 million and adj. EBITDA of $7.1 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $81.5 million and $7.0 million, respectively. Furthermore, gross margin improved by 580 basis points from the prior year period. In our view, the solid results demonstrate the efficacy of the company’s initiatives to enhance its expense structure and improve gross margins.

Improved gross margin. The company’s strong gross margin improvement was largely driven by a 480bp improvement in product costs and reduced freight costs, with an 80bp contribution from lower promotional activity and discounting in its Direct To Consumer (DTC) segment.

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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Looking Ahead to a Catalyst-Rich 2025

Posted on December 16, 2024December 16, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Monday, December 16, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private placement financing. Aurania announced the closing of the first tranche of its recently announced private placement of up to 8,888,888 units at a price of C$0.45 per unit to raise gross proceeds of up to C$4,000,000. In the first tranche, a total of 2,726,499 units were sold for gross proceeds of C$1,226,924.55. Each unit is comprised of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.75 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the first tranche. The net proceeds will be used to fund exploration in France including impact studies, exploration programs at key targets in Ecuador, and working capital.

Preparing for 2025. In November, Aurania commenced an induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey over its Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target at the company’s Lost Cities-Cutucu project in southeastern Ecuador. The IP survey is designed to identify deep conductors that could correspond to gold mineralization and to target drill holes for the planned program in 2025. The IP survey is expected to be completed this month with results expected in early 2025 following a review and interpretation of the data.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Conduent (CNDT) – Highlights from NobleCon20

Posted on December 13, 2024December 13, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, December 13, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. On December 3, management presented at NobleCon20 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida. Giles Goodburn, Global Head of FP&A and Investor Relations, highlighted the company’s ongoing transformation to a leaner, more focused organization. A replay of the presentation can be found here.

Business transformation underway. Since the start of 2024, the company has completed several divestitures totaling roughly $780 million in net proceeds. This has allowed the company to make significant balance sheet improvements. The company is also in the process of cutting corporate overhead and various stranded costs following the recent divestitures. Moreover, with an infusion of new business leaders across its three segments we believe the company is positioning itself for future revenue growth as a more focused and efficient organization.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Snail (SNAL) – Highlights From NobleCon20

Posted on December 13, 2024December 13, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, December 13, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. On December 3rd, management presented at NobleCon20 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Tony Tian, CEO, and Heidy Chow, CFO, highlighted the company’s release roadmap, strategy, and unique offerings. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here.

Release roadmap. There are five free Downloadable Content (DLC) packages that are included in the sale of Ark: Survival Ascended (ASA), three of which have not been released yet. The next DLC is expected in Q4, and two more are expected in 2025. Importantly, as DLC packages included in ASA are released, the company will defer less revenue from ASA sales, which should provide investors with a clearer picture of company operating results.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) – Highlights From NobleCon20

Posted on December 13, 2024December 13, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, December 13, 2024

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A transitional year. Revenue guidance is flat to down mid single digits, but should start to grow again next year. The key growth drivers are expected to be led by its innovation initiatives, introduction of new products (ie. most recently, Cheryl’s Ice Cream, Wolferman’s New York Style Bagels, and Greeting Cards), bundling products (ie. Harry & David’s baskets with Shari’s Berries), products with new price points, and driving repeat customers. Plus, the company believes there is more to do with its 1.1 million Passport Loyalty customers, which is 10% of its customer base but accounts for over 20% of its revenues.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – Presentation Highlights from NobleCon20

Posted on December 12, 2024December 12, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. The ODP Corporation Co-CFO Adam Haggard and VP of IR Tim Perrott presented at NobleCon20. Highlights included are the Company’s pivot towards B2B, targeting new markets, and the return of value to shareholders.

B2B Pivot. Noted in our previous report, ODP is accelerating its B2B pivot through leveraging its nationwide supply chain, extensive B2B customer base, compelling value proposition, and strong balance sheet. A recent B2B win involves the Company’s ODP Business Solutions with a recent key contract win that is worth up to $1.5 billion over 10 years. Another involves Veyer with a major contract with one of the world’s largest social media focused e-commerce companies to deliver warehouse and fulfillment services for their online sales. In our view, both contracts represent management’s focus on its efforts within the space.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

The GEO Group (GEO) – NobleCon20 Highlights

Posted on December 12, 2024December 12, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. The GEO Group CEO Brian Evans presented at NobleCon20. Highlights included potentially improving segment trends, an aging prison infrastructure, and reducing debt to be more flexible. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-geo-group-noblecon20-replay.

Segment Trends. With the new Trump administration approaching in January, management notes the administration’s immigration enforcement policies may positively impact its detention capacity, electronic monitoring, and secure transportation businesses. GEO remains poised to capitalize on any increase in detention and/or enhanced supervision with roughly 8,000 beds at existing facilities and 10,000 beds at six company-owned currently idle facilities. In addition, ISAP populations were roughly double today’s level two years ago.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Resources Connection (RGP) – Workforce Reduction Initiated; Confirms 2Q25 Guidance

Posted on December 12, 2024December 12, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Resources Connection, Inc. provides agile consulting services in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers finance and accounting services, including process transformation and optimization, financial reporting and analysis, technical and operational accounting, merger and acquisition due diligence and integration, audit readiness, preparation and response, implementation of new accounting standards, and remediation support. It also provides information management services, such as program and project management, business and technology integration, data strategy, and business performance management. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory, strategic communications, and restructuring services; and corporate governance, risk, and compliance management services, such as contract and regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management, internal controls management, and operation and information technology (IT) audits. Further, it provides supply chain management services comprising strategy development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and materials management, supply chain planning and forecasting, and unique device identification compliance; and human capital services, including change management, organization development and effectiveness, compensation and incentive plan strategies, and optimization of human resources technology and operations. Additionally, the company offers legal and regulatory supporting services for commercial transactions, global compliance initiatives, law department operations, and law department business strategies and analytics. It also provides policyIQ, a proprietary cloud-based governance, risk, and compliance software application. The company was formerly known as RC Transaction Corp. and changed its name to Resources Connection, Inc. in August 2000. Resources Connection, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Workforce Reduction. We had an opportunity to speak with management about the December 6th 8-k filing in which Resources Connection announced a reduction in the global management and administrative workforce intended to enhance efficiencies through reduced costs and streamlined operations. The RIF impacts about 8% of the management and administrative workforce. Cost savings are expected to range from $4-$5 million in 2H25, or $8-$10 million annually on a go-forward basis. Restructuring charges of $2.5-$3.0 million are expected to be recognized in the third quarter of fiscal 2025.

But Reaffirming 2Q25 Guidance. Management re-confirmed guidance for 2Q25 (ended November 23, 2024). For 2Q25, the Company expects full quarter revenue to be in the range of $135-$140 million and expects gross margin to be in the range of 36% to 37%. The Company’s run rate SG&A for the quarter is expected to be in the range of $48-$50 million.

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Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – Thoughts on the Winter 2024/2025 Exploration and Drilling Program

Posted on December 12, 2024December 12, 2024 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20 presentation. During Noble’s recent NobleCon20 Annual Emerging Growth Equity Conference, Mr. Kiran Patankar, Maple Gold’s CEO, provided some additional details regarding the company’s upcoming exploration and drilling program. A link to Maple Gold’s NobleCon20 presentation is here. Recall that Maple Gold has a 400 square kilometer district-scale property in Quebec’s Abitibi Greenstone Gold Belt, including gold mineral resources of approximately three million ounces at Douay with significant expansion potential and the past producing Telbel and Eagle West mines at Joutel.

Upcoming drilling program. Maple Gold’s fully funded drilling program is expected to commence shortly and run through March. The company is using a data-driven approach toward exploration that is focused on expanding the company’s gold mineral resource from approximately three million ounces to five million ounces across the combined Douay/Joutel projects, along with making new discoveries. An updated resource estimate and scoping study is expected to be completed within the next 12 to 18 months.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).