Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – Near Term Tariff Turbulence Likely

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, May 05, 2025

500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Favorable Fourth Quarter Results. Fourth quarter total company revenues increased an attractive 6.2% to $79.95 million, well above our $71.5 million estimate, primarily due to strong growth in its Wholesale business. Due to price integrity, gross margins substantially improved 470 basis points to 50.1%. As a result, adj. EBITDA in the latest quarter was $3.58 million, better than our $1.5 million estimate. 

Adjusting estimates lower. Management guided fiscal first quarter revenues to be down 5%, with gross margins likely down 500 basis points. Notably, the first quarter guidance did not reflect the current U.S. trade policy. While the full extent of the company’s tariff mitigation plans are fluid, we believe that there will be some adverse revenue and cost of goods impact. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Post Call Commentary

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, May 05, 2025

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Control What Can Be Controlled. Given the uncertain economic situation, management is focused on what they can control. The prime examples being the multi-year cost out program and the effort to move manufacturing for U.S. based consumption to the lowest cost geographical areas possible. Management also continues to push forward its new product program to capture additional sales.

Cost Reduction Program. ACCO’s $100 million cost reduction program remains on track, with SG&A costs down y-o-y primarily due to the program. Management estimates some $7 million of savings during 1Q25, and the Company remains on track to deliver $40 million of savings in 2025. This will help alleviate some of the pressure from tariff uncertainty.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – 1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 02, 2025

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First Quarter Included Contract Revenues. GeoVax reported a 1Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.45) per share, a smaller loss than we had expected. The quarter included $1.6 million in Contract Revenue from the BARDA contract in preparation for the Phase 2 trial. Since the contract was cancelled on April 11, 2025, the 2Q25 results will include some final contract work. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $7.4 million.

CM04S1 Continues Development With Focus On Immunocompromised Patients. The current focus of CM04S1 development is in immunocompromised patients, a population estimated at 40 million patients in the US alone. Data from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 clinical trials for CM04S1 was presented at the 25th World Vaccine Congress. The two Phase 2 trials in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and stem cell transplants continue to enroll patients, while the Phase 2 Healthy Adult Booster trial is expected to report data during 2Q25.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Skating On Thin Ice

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 02, 2025

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 revenue weaker than expected. Total company revenues declined 6.4% to $187.3 million, weaker than our 4.8% decline and $190.4 million estimates, respectively. Due to previous cost reductions, the company achieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $3.5 million versus our estimate of $3.4 million. 

Digital Marketing Services (DMS) revenue surges. DMS revenues, which account for roughly 30% of the digital segment, increased a strong 30%. Management indicated that DMS Q2 revenue pacings have accelerated to 35% growth. Notably, the digital segment accounted for 20% of total company revenues. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Xcel Brands (XELB) – Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 02, 2025

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Collaboration with a UTG. United Trademark Group (UTG) made a $9 million strategic investment in Xcel Brands and announced a strategic partnership. The investment bolstered the company’s balance sheet and provided more favorable debt covenant terms. In addition, UTG has performance warrants, exercisable over 7 years, that could bring in an additional $13 million if exercised. 

Increased financial flexibility. United Trademark Group (UTG) took a $9 million strategic investment in the form of a Paid In Kind (PIK) loan. UTG was also issued performance based warrants that could add $13 million, if exercised. We believe that the funds will be used to support the growth of recently announced brands and provide financial flexibility to acquire or develop additional brands. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 02, 2025

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid 1Q25. In the historically smallest quarter, ACCO reported revenue in-line with guidance while exceeding adjusted EPS guidance during the quarter. However, increased market uncertainties driven by global trade dynamics is resulting in limited visibility beyond 2Q25. Management’s strategic management of its supplier base and ability to accelerate supply chain moves should lessen the impact of tariffs.

1Q25 Results. Revenue of $317.4 million was within management’s $315-$325 million guidance. We were at $315 million. Revenue was down 11.6% y-o-y, with comp sales off 8.3%. Adverse forex reduced revenue by 3.3%. The revenue decline was driven by softer global demand for certain office products and gaming accessories, partially offset by growth in computer accessories. Gross margin improved 60bp y-o-y to 31.4%.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Gaining Momentum

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 01, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private placement financing. Aurania recently closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman, President, and CEO, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively. Aurania expects to close the final tranche of its non-brokered private placement on or around May 5.

Loan agreement. Dr. Keith Barron has also agreed to provide a loan of up to US$2,094,500 to the company. The loan will be advanced from time to time in mutually agreed upon principal amounts. The loan is unsecured and bears interest at 2% per annum. The proceeds are expected to be used to fund Aurania’s remaining 2024 mineral concession fees in Ecuador, which are due on May 1.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Nutriband Inc. (NTRB) – Fiscal 2025 Reported With Product Progress Updates

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 01, 2025

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fiscal Year 2025 Reported. Nutriband reported its financial results for FY2025, ended January 31, 2025, with a 4Q25 loss of $5.5 million or ($0.50) per share and a loss of $10.5 million or $(0.99) per share. Preparations for the abuse-deterrence clinical testing continue, with an NDA expected toward 4Q25 or early 2026. As of January 31, 2025, the cash balance was $4.3 million.

Revenue For The Pocono Pharmaceutical Division Met Expectations. The Pocono Pharmaceutical division revenue for FY2025 was $2.1 million, with 4Q25 consistent with previous quarters. Gross margin improved in 4Q25 to 45% of sales, the highest level of the year. Nutriband has extended its contract manufacturing collaboration with KT tape, the kinesiology tape company, with modest growth in our projections for FY2026.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

V2X, Inc. (VVX) – Some More Awards

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 01, 2025

V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Awards. V2X continues to win new awards, and if current Defense budget proposals resulting in the first $1 trillion budget for fiscal year 2025 move to fruition, the award environment should remain target rich for the Company.

Navy Contract. Earlier this week, the Company was awarded a $103 million contract by the U.S. Navy for Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) maintenance of C-26 aircraft. Under this contract, V2X will continue providing comprehensive CLS support, including aircraft engineering, upgrades, maintenance, and modifications. The award reinforces V2X’s role as the best-value provider for this critical mission, in our view.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Some Favorable Tailwinds?

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 01, 2025

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Trillion Dollard Defense Budget? House Republicans have released legislation that would increase Pentagon spending by $150 billion. The proposal was approved by the House Armed Services Committee and, when combined with the already approved government fiscal year 2025 $886 billion defense budget, the added dollars would bring defense spending to more than $1 trillion for the first time. A significant portion of the recent budget increases target areas in Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our opinion, which could provide additional upside to the Company.

Missile Defense. Approximately $25 billion of the $150 billion proposed increase would be earmarked for the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. Recall, Golden Dome would be a shield intended to protect the continental U.S. against advanced missiles. Golden Dome is another project that aligns with Kratos’ capabilities, in our view.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Perfect . (PERF) – Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue growth of 13.4% year over year to $16.0 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $16.2 million. Adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million was better than our estimate of $0.4 million.

B2C momentum. The strong quarterly revenue growth was driven by the company’s B2C segment. Importantly, the company is in the midst of optimizing pricing for its popular beauty app subscription and recently introduced a higher margin premium subscription plan. We believe the B2C segment is poised for continued revenue growth throughout 2025.


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Travelzoo (TZOO) – Off To A Solid Start

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reports solid Q1 results. Q1 revenues accelerated, up 5.3%, from the 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, reflecting the early adoption of the company’s transformative migration toward a subscription model. Results were in line with expectations, with adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million and positive free cash flow generation of $3.3 million. 

Revenues expected to accelerate. Management indicated that second quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate, double the rate of the first quarter’s 5.3%. The enhanced revenue growth reflects the success of converting legacy subscribers to a paid subscription. The paid subscription began in the first quarter of 2025, with subscription revenues recognized pro-ratably over the subscription period. As such, we expect that revenue growth will accelerate as it adds subscriptions throughout the year. 


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 30, 2025

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $159.9 million and $0.57, respectively, compared to $238.4 million and $1.21 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $143.8 million and $0.48. While total revenue of $540.5 million was just shy of our $541.1 million estimate, we underestimated coal sales and overstated transportation revenue. Consequently, transportation expense was also overstated. Total operating expenses were $446.2 million compared to our $462.3 million forecast.

Corporate outlook for 2025 and 2026. Management’s guidance for 2025 was little changed, except for increasing the range for total coal sales tonnage, increasing expense as a percentage of oil & gas royalty revenue, depreciation expense, and lowering net interest expense expectations. For 2026, management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower. Due to higher-priced, multi-contracts rolling off, the average sales price per ton could be 4% to 5% below the midpoint of ARLP’s 2025 guidance. We think planned 2025 long wall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset lower prices.


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