Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – In-Line Second Quarter; Lowering Near-Term Estimates


Wednesday, August 02, 2023

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $249.2 million and $1.30, respectively, compared to $246.9 million and $1.23 during the prior year period. EPU was in line with our estimate and was modestly ahead of the consensus. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $254.4 million and $1.30. Revenue increased 3.5% to $641.8 million, while income from operations increased 3.7% to $183.9 million. The company generated free cash flow of $153.5 million compared to $81.3 million during the prior year period and distributable cash flow provided quarterly cash distribution coverage of 1.9x.

Refined management guidance. Alliance provided updated guidance for the remainder of the year which we have incorporated into our estimates as detailed in the body of this note. Total coal sales are expected to be in the range of 35.5 million to 36.0 million tons compared to previous expectations of 36.0 million to 38.0 million tons, while the coal sales price per ton is expected to be in the range of $65 to $66 compared to previous guidance of $65 to $67. Alliance also guided to lower depreciation, depletion, and amortization, general and administrative, and income tax expense.


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