| Key Points: – Office real estate prices have dropped 12.4% year-over-year as of Q2 2024. – Stressed property sales at significant discounts signal potential price benchmarks. – Federal Reserve rate cuts provide some relief but are insufficient for full market recovery. |
The U.S. office real estate market may be showing early signs of bottoming out, as recent sales of stressed properties at significant discounts begin to set new pricing benchmarks. After being severely impacted by the pandemic, with prices for office buildings plummeting by 12.4% year-over-year as of the second quarter of 2024, some experts now believe that the worst may be behind us.
For the past two years, office buildings have faced declining demand as remote work became more widespread, leading to persistent vacancies. The combination of high operating costs and higher interest rates has created a challenging environment for developers and lenders. Many have chosen to extend maturing loans with revised terms or delay sales in hopes of avoiding losses. As a result, transaction volumes have remained low, preventing the market from finding a clear pricing benchmark.
“We’re starting to see a shift,” said Stephen Buschbom, research director at Trepp, a real estate data and research firm. “There have been a few big sales at significant discounts recently, and that helps establish some kind of pricing benchmark, which we desperately need.”
According to Moody’s, the second quarter of 2024 saw seven office buildings sell at more than $100 million discounts. This includes a notable sale of 135 West 50th Street in Manhattan, which was sold at a staggering 97% discount, resulting in a $276.5 million loss compared to its previous valuation of $285 million. Similar deals have been recorded in other major markets, such as Chicago, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.
These steep discounts have caused some industry experts to speculate that the market may be at or near its bottom, with distressed property sales finally providing clarity on pricing. Kevin Fagan, head of Commercial Real Estate Economic Analysis at Moody’s, notes that these sales mark a turning point. “We’re seeing some sophisticated property owners willing to sell their buildings at a loss, and that’s helping create a clearer understanding of office values.”
Despite these glimmers of hope, the overall outlook for the office real estate market remains uncertain. With a large volume of loans maturing over the next year, property owners may still face difficulties refinancing their existing debt, even as the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates. According to Moody’s, around 72% of the $19 billion worth of maturing loans over the next 12 months will require property owners to contribute between 30-35% in additional equity to secure refinancing.
The Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut has offered some relief, but experts warn that more substantial rate cuts will be needed to stimulate a full recovery in the market. “While the rate cut is helpful, the market likely needs a reduction of 300-400 basis points to truly revive commercial real estate,” said Alex Horn, founder of private lender BridgeInvest.
Looking ahead, analysts expect more property owners to begin selling distressed assets, creating potential opportunities for buyers willing to invest in heavily discounted properties. Keerthi Raghavan, head of ABS strategy at Waterfall Asset Management, said his firm has already invested nearly $2 billion in bonds and loans sold at steep discounts over the last year. “We believe there will be more opportunities as many commercial real estate assets still need to be sold or resolved,” he said.
While the road to recovery is likely to be long and fraught with challenges, the recent uptick in stressed property sales suggests that the U.S. office real estate market may finally be finding its bottom.