| Key Points: – Tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon are outpacing traditional VC firms in AI funding. – Venture-backed IPOs remain scarce despite AI’s rise. – VC investments shift to less capital-intensive application-level startups. |
The venture capital (VC) landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as tech behemoths like Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia pour billions into artificial intelligence (AI) startups. This trend has significantly altered the dynamics in an industry already reeling from an extended dry spell in initial public offerings (IPOs), which is approaching three years.
Unlike previous tech booms, where venture capitalists (VCs) held a central role, the current AI wave is being driven by the deep pockets of these tech giants. This shift has left traditional VC firms scrambling to adapt, as startups like OpenAI, Anthropic, and CoreWeave attract massive investments from these corporate titans, bypassing the need for public funding.
While many AI startups have earned sky-high valuations, they are not yet ready to go public or show the profitability metrics that public investors typically seek. As a result, VCs face a bottleneck in generating returns for their limited partners. Venture-backed IPOs are projected to hit their lowest level since 2016, with U.S. VC exit value in 2024 expected to drop 86% from its peak in 2021, according to PitchBook data.
One of the primary reasons for this market distortion is that tech giants are not only offering capital but also tangible benefits such as cloud credits and strategic business partnerships—resources that traditional VCs cannot easily match. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, many AI startups are still seeing overwhelming investor interest despite the broader downturn in venture markets.
With the landscape dominated by mega-companies, venture firms have been forced to adjust their investment strategies. Chip Hazard, co-founder of Flybridge Capital Partners, noted that VC dollars are now shifting “up the stack,” meaning that traditional VCs are investing in companies that are building applications on top of existing AI infrastructure. These companies require far less capital than the infrastructure startups that are driving the AI boom, such as those building chips or training AI models.
The generative AI frenzy shows no signs of slowing. In 2024 alone, investors funneled $26.8 billion into 498 AI deals, continuing a trend that saw AI fundraising increase more than 200% between 2022 and 2023, per PitchBook. AI now accounts for 27% of total fundraising in the private market, up from 12% in 2023. This increase highlights how central AI has become in the broader venture ecosystem.
Despite the optimism surrounding AI, the broader venture capital industry continues to face significant headwinds. The IPO market remains stagnant, leaving venture-backed companies with limited options for exits. Even for companies that do go public, valuations are often far lower than in the pre-2022 era, when tech stocks soared and interest rates remained low.
Some traditional VCs, like Menlo Ventures, are attempting to carve out their piece of the AI pie by forming special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to participate in high-profile funding rounds. Menlo, for example, has invested in Anthropic’s $750 million round, valuing the startup at over $18 billion. Cohere, another AI company focused on enterprise solutions, also raised $500 million through an SPV organized by Inovia Capital.
In this new landscape, VCs are increasingly forced to take a backseat as tech giants drive the AI revolution. The real question now is how venture firms will adapt to this new reality where exits are fewer, returns are slower, and competition for promising startups is fiercer than ever.