As we enter the third quarter of 2024, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming June jobs report, which will provide crucial insights into the state of the U.S. labor market. This report, set to be released on Friday, July 5, is expected to show a cooling but still resilient job market, with forecasts predicting 188,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added and unemployment holding steady at 4%.
The jobs report comes at a pivotal time, as the stock market has seen impressive gains in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 is up 14.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has surged over 18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, has posted a more modest gain of 3.8%.
These gains have been largely driven by a handful of tech giants, with over two-thirds of the S&P 500’s increase attributed to just seven companies: Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Broadcom. Notably, Nvidia alone accounts for nearly one-third of these gains, underscoring the outsized impact of the AI boom on market performance.
This concentration of gains has sparked debate among market watchers about whether the rally will broaden to other sectors in the second half of the year. So far, only two sectors – Communications Services and Information Technology – have outperformed the S&P 500, both up more than 18%.
The dominance of tech companies is expected to continue into the second quarter earnings season. The six largest tech firms (Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta) are projected to grow their earnings by an impressive 31.7%, far outpacing the overall S&P 500’s expected growth of 7.8%.
This stark contrast in earnings growth has helped fuel the ongoing rally in tech stocks. Since March 31, while the S&P 500’s earnings estimates have dipped by just 0.1% (compared to a typical 3.3% decline), estimates for the top six tech companies have actually been revised upward by 3.9%.
As we move into the third quarter, investors and analysts will be closely watching whether these tech behemoths can maintain their stellar performance. The sustainability of their earnings growth remains a key question that could significantly impact market direction in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the broader economic picture continues to evolve. Recent inflation data has shown positive trends, with prices increasing at their slowest pace since March 2021. This development, combined with signs of a gradual cooling in the labor market, has led some economists to argue that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.
However, the Fed has maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates, focusing on bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The upcoming jobs report and other economic indicators will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s future policy decisions.
As we head into a holiday-shortened trading week, with markets closing early on July 3 and remaining closed on July 4 for Independence Day, investors will have limited time to digest the latest economic data. The week will see releases on manufacturing and services sector activity, job openings, and private payrolls, culminating in Friday’s all-important jobs report.
In conclusion, as we begin Q3 2024, the market remains buoyant but highly concentrated in the tech sector. The interplay between economic data, Fed policy, and the performance of tech giants will likely define the market’s trajectory in the coming months, with all eyes on whether the rally can broaden beyond the current narrow leadership.
