Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, October 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Delivering Music To Our Ears: Cash Flow And Earnings Growth
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Strengthening Position Among Residential Developers
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Exiting A Successful Run
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$6.73 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Delivering Music To Our Ears: Cash Flow And Earnings Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with Outperform rating. Alliance Entertainment is a leading distributor of physical products, including vinyl records, music CDs, Blu-ray and 4K Movies, Video Games and Electronics, and Collectibles. While some of its business lines are mature, there are attractive growth opportunities in developing revenue streams that carry higher margins. As such, we believe that the company is on the cusp of generating significant cash flow and earnings growth.
Expanding margin outlook. In spite of anticipated modest revenue growth of 2.4% in fiscal 2026, we anticipate a nearly 140 basis point improvement in adj. EBITDA margins in fiscal 2026, given our expectation of higher margin, developing revenue streams and the company’s focus on efficiencies. We expect an acceleration in revenue in fiscal 2027 to 3.1% with another 60 basis point improvement in margins.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.13 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Strengthening Position Among Residential Developers
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Landmark partnership expands builder channel. SKYX announced it will supply more than 10,000 smart plug-and-play lighting and safety products to a 278-apartment project in Austin, Texas led by Landmark Companies. We believe this marks another important step in the company’s efforts to penetrate the builder channel, signaling traction with traditional residential developers.
Potential for broader builder relationships. By establishing a relationship with a large developer like Landmark, SKYX positions itself for additional project opportunities if early deployments prove successful. This deal highlights the potential for SKYX to extend its platform into the broader residential developer market, with initial supply expected to begin as early as within the next quarter or two.
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Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.38 | Price Target: $7)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Exiting A Successful Run
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Exits its Mizrahi interest. The company transferred its remaining 17.5% interest in Isaac Mizrahi to IM Topco, effectively exiting its interest in the brand. The exit of the Mizrahi relationship with Xcel caps a storied and successful run with the company since 2011. Under Xcel, Mizrahi expanded its categories and collections on QVC and into such retailers as Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom.
Financial upside. Xcel has a participation right should IM Topco sell the company above $46.0 million, coincidentally, the price that Xcel sold its 60% interest. Xcel would receive 15% of the net consideration in excess of the $46 million. In addition, we believe that the company will benefit from the absent of costs related to the brand, particularly employee costs.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 3, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Preliminary Results and Tuck-in Acquisition
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$3.83 | Price Target: $9)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Favorable Preliminary Results and Tuck-in Acquisition
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong preliminary results. Bitcoin Depot announced preliminary Q3 results of approximately $160M in revenue (+18% Y/Y) and roughly 50% growth in adj. EBITDA versus the prior year. Both topline and profitability are tracking well ahead of management’s prior Q2 guidance of high-single-digit revenue and 20–30% adj. EBITDA growth.
Beating expectations. In light of these results, the company is expected to exceed our Q3 forecast of $146.5M in revenue and $11.0M in adj. EBITDA. Preliminary figures imply approximately $13.8M in adj. EBITDA, meaning profitability should surpass our expectations by nearly 25%.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Progress on the Permitting Front
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – An Award for Diamondback
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Vessel Sale and Improving Capesize Fundamentals
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Awards
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.29 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Progress on the Permitting Front
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Moving through the permitting process. Century has completed all required environmental baseline studies to begin Angel Island’s National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) permitting process, which is expected to take up to two years before reaching a record of decision. The studies will be used by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to support the company’s upcoming Plan of Operations submission and subsequent NEPA analysis.
FAST-41 designation. In August 2025, Angel Island was formally designated as a FAST-41 Transparency project under a federal initiative designed to improve the transparency, coordination, and timeliness of the federal environmental review and permitting process. The designation reflects Angel Island’s strategic importance in supporting the U.S. critical minerals supply chain. We think the Angel Island project is well-positioned for a timely progression through the permitting process.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$20.55 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
An Award for Diamondback
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Diamondback. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced it was awarded a new contract under an Intergovernmental Services Agreement between the Oklahoma Department of Corrections and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to resume operations at the Company’s 2,160-bed Diamondback Correctional Facility, a facility that has been idle since 2010.
Details. The new contract commenced on September 30, 2025, for a term of five years and may be extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $100 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the first quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2026.
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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$8.58 | Price Target: $11)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Vessel Sale and Improving Capesize Fundamentals
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Sale of M/V Geniuship. Seanergy announced the sale of the M/V Geniuship, a 170,057 dwt Capesize vessel, for approximately $21.6 million, generating net cash proceeds of $12.0 million and a profit of about $2.5 million. The sale was timed to take advantage of improved vessel valuations while avoiding the costs of the vessel’s scheduled dry-docking. The transaction enhances liquidity, improves near-term earnings, and aligns with the company’s ongoing fleet renewal strategy.
Capesize market gains momentum. The Capesize market has strengthened in recent months, supported by iron ore and bauxite projects in the Atlantic basin and West Africa, while volatility due to tariffs has moderated. The orderbook remains limited, with shipyard slots not available until 2029. Rising vessel values, together with higher construction costs, have further restricted orders. Overall, we expect market conditions to remain favorable, with 2026 showing improvement over 2025.
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V2X (VVX/$58.08 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some More Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Awards. V2X has been the recipient of new awards, including one focused on extending the life-cycle of existing platforms and another driving connectivity and communications. In total, the three new awards total over $580 million of contract value, assuming all funds are spent. We view the recent wins as further confirmation of V2X’s ability to provide full mission lifecycle solutions.
Center Display Units. V2X’s Vertex Modernization and Sustainment unit was awarded by the Air Force a five-year ID/IQ contract with a single five-year option (10 years total) with a contract ceiling of $425 million for center display units (CDU), according to the Department of War’s daily contract awards. V2X will supply the Air Force with the following hardware during this period: CDU full kits, CDU line replaceable units, CDU shop replaceable units, and various other support hardware as required.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – A Convertible Note Offering
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Retains ISAP Contract
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Convertible Note Offering
Rating: OUTPERFORM
An Offering. Bit Digital is offering $135 million of convertible notes. The deal is upsized from an original $100 million. Net proceeds from the offering will be used primarily to purchase Ethereum, and may be used for general corporate purposes, including potential investments, acquisitions, and other business opportunities. The capital raise continues management’s goal of becoming a major Ethereum treasury company, in our view.
Details. The Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company and will accrue interest at a rate of 4.00% per year, payable semiannually in arrears. The Notes will mature on October 1, 2030. The initial conversion rate will be 240.3846 shares per $1,000 principal amount of Notes (equivalent to an initial conversion price of $4.16 per ordinary share and represents a conversion premium of 30% above the last reported sale price of the ordinary shares on September 29, 2025, which was $3.20).
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The GEO Group (GEO/$20.49 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Retains ISAP Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM
ISAP Award. As we had expected, The GEO Group has retained the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (“ISAP”) contract. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) awarded the contract to GEO’s BI subsidiary for the continued provision of electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision services. It is a two-year contract, which will have an initial term of one year, effective October 1, 2025, with an additional one-year option period.
Long-time Services Provider. BI has provided technology solutions, holistic case management, supervision, monitoring, and compliance services under the ISAP contract for over 21 years and has achieved high levels of compliance using a wide range of technologies and case management services over that time.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – U.S. Coal as a Strategic and Competitive Advantage
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Letter Contracts to Contract Awards
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Activist Investor Sees $10+ Stock in 12-18 Months
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.02 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
U.S. Coal as a Strategic and Competitive Advantage
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Investments to reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry. The U.S. Department of Energy announced a $625 million program to expand and reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry. This includes $350 million to recommission or modernize coal power units, $175 million for coal power projects directly benefiting rural communities, $50 million to support advanced wastewater management systems to enable coal plants to extend their service life and reduce operational costs, $25 million for dual-firing retrofits, and $25 million for development and testing of natural gas cofiring systems.
Expanded coal leasing on federal lands. Moreover, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced it is making up to 13.1 million acres of federal land available for coal leasing and streamlining approvals for projects. The Department is accelerating efforts to fast-track projects that can recover strategic minerals from mine waste and abandoned sites. The One Big Beautiful Bill, passed on July 4, established lower coal leasing royalty rates of not more than 7% for both surface and underground mines for the period July 4, 2025, to September 30, 2034.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$21.54 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Letter Contracts to Contract Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Contract Awards. As anticipated, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) awarded CoreCivic two new contracts, which, once fully activated, would generate total annual revenue of approximately $200 million. The two facilities, California City and Midwest Regional, had been operating under Letter Contracts with ICE, which enable CoreCivic to begin operations at a facility while negotiating a longer-term contract. Both facilities were idle at the beginning of the year.
California City. CoreCivic has been preparing to accept detainees at the 2,560-bed California City facility since April 1, 2025. The Company began receiving detainees at the facility on August 27, 2025. Management currently expects the activation to be complete in 1Q26, achieving a normalized run-rate in 2Q26. Total annual revenue, once the activation is complete, is expected to be approximately $130 million. The new contract expires in August 2027.
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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$3.12 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Activist Investor Sees $10+ Stock in 12-18 Months
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Activist Investor. Randian Capital, part of the “retail activist” group behind the sharp rise in Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock from less than a $1 mid-summer to around $8.20 today, released on social media platform X a turnaround proposal for The ONE Group. In a nutshell, the plan consists of Refocus the Portfolio, Revitalize the Brand, Strengthen Operations, and Capital Discipline & Growth. Radian sees a path to a $10+ stock over the next 12-18 months. STKS shares rose over 26% yesterday on the news.
Refocus & Revitalize. Randian calls for ONE Group to refocus solely on its Benihana concept, selling off all other concepts. The activist investor believes the STK concept alone could be worth more than the current market cap. Randian suggests rebranding as Benihana Group and changing the stock symbol. Revitalization by elevating the dining experience and engaging with cultural icons, among other changes.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 26, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Heightened Risk in Ecuador
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Revising Estimates; Growth Outlook Remains Favorable
Steelcase (SCS)/MARKET PERFORM – A Better Than Expected 2Q26
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Heightened Risk in Ecuador
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. As an exploration company, Aurania does not generate revenue and has expenses to advance its projects. During the second quarter of 2025, the company generated a net loss of C$1,610,843 or C$0.01 per share. We had projected a loss of C$1,432,419 or C$0.01 per share. The variance to our estimate was mostly due to higher exploration expenditures, along with higher stock-based compensation. We project a full-year 2025 net loss of C$11.1 million, or C$(0.10) per share, compared to our prior loss estimate of C$10.5 million, or C$(0.09) per share.
Mining service fee. Ecuador recently implemented a new mining service fee on the resource sector (refer to our note dated July 29, 2025). The Ecuadorian Control and Regulation Agency (ARCOM) requested payment from Aurania of US$2,012,618 by July 31, 2025, representing one month of the total annual fee of US$24,151,420. While the penalty for non-payment is unclear, we think Aurania is withholding payment until it becomes clear whether TASA will stand in its current form due to multiple constitutional challenges.
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AZZ (AZZ/$110.64 | Price Target: $125)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Revising Estimates; Growth Outlook Remains Favorable
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. We are lowering our second-quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS estimates to $428.3 million, $93.4 million, and $1.54, respectively, from $433.5 million, $101.1 million, and $1.59. While we have increased our revenue estimate for the Metal Coatings segment, we lowered expectations for Precoat Metals due to anticipated weakness in building construction. Our FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS estimates are $1.660 billion, $374.9 million, and $6.00, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $1.680 billion, $388.3 million, and $6.00. Our revised estimates reflect lower interest expense, along with modestly lower depreciation and amortization expense.
Organic and acquired growth. AZZ’s three-year goals include generating sales of two billion dollars or more in fiscal year 2028, compared to its trailing twelve-month sales of $1.6 billion. Organic growth is expected to exceed GDP growth, and AZZ is targeting acquisitions that strengthen both of its business segments. While we do not forecast sales of $2.0 billion until 2031, our model does not reflect acquisitions until they are announced.
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Steelcase (SCS/$16.7)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Better Than Expected 2Q26
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
2Q26. In what is likely the Company’s final quarterly report as a public company, Steelcase reported better than expected results. Results benefitted from continued strengthening of demand from large corporate customers and International growth driven by India, China, and the United Kingdom. Improved International volume drove a $5 million reduction in y-o-y adjusted operating loss in the International segment. These were Steelcase’s highest quarterly results over the past five years.
Financials. Revenue of $897.1 million rose 4.8% y-o-y and exceeded the $890 million high end of management’s guidance. We were at $875 million. Gross margin of 34.4% was flat y-o-y and exceeded the 33.5% high end of guidance. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $99.6 million, or 11.1% of revenue, up from $89.5 million and 10.5% in 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.45, versus $0.39 last year and above management’s $0.40 high end guide. We were at $0.36.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Reaches Milestone in Helping Medicare-Eligible Seniors
SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.08 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Reaches Milestone in Helping Medicare-Eligible Seniors
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Milestone in Findhelp partnership. SelectQuote announced that it has referred more than 200,000 low-income seniors to Findhelp, with nearly 50,000 of those individuals accessing free or reduced-cost services. The milestone demonstrates SelectQuote’s role in addressing the needs of Medicare-eligible consumers.
Partnership connects consumers to critical support. Findhelp is a closed-loop referral management software platform that connects individuals with community resources such as food, housing, transportation, and financial aid. SelectQuote has partnered with Findhelp for several years, directing seniors to assistance programs. The initiative does not generate revenue, but it extends SelectQuote’s Medicare distribution model by providing tangible value to consumers.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
The ODP Corporation (ODP)/MARKET PERFORM – To Be Acquired for $28/sh
The ODP Corporation (ODP/$27.68)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
To Be Acquired for $28/sh
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
An Acquisition. Yesterday morning, The ODP Corporation announced it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Atlas Holdings for $28/sh. The purchase price represents a premium of 34% to Friday’s closing price. ODP’s Board is supporting the transaction, which is expected to close by the end of 2025.
Who Is Atlas Holdings? Founded in 2002 by Andrew Bursky and Tim Fazio, Greenwich, CT-based Atlas Holdings owns and operates a global family of manufacturing and distribution businesses that together generate more than $20 billion in annual revenue. Atlas has experience in the office supplies sector through its LSC Communications unit, a leader in organizational solutions through brands such as Pendaflex.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, September 22, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target
Information Services Group (III/$5.38 | Price Target: $6.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Raising Price Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Raising Price Target. We are raising our price target on III shares to $6.50 from a prior $5, as III shares have exceeded our price target. The recent and expected future interest rate cuts, ongoing cost optimization efforts from clients, and the increasing pace of AI adoption will continue to drive ISG’s operating performance, in our view.
Valuation. At our $6.50 price target, III shares would trade at 1.4x our 2026 revenue estimate on an EV/sales basis, 10.7x on an EV/projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA basis, and 19.1x adjusted 2026 earnings. This compares to a peer group that trades at 1.3x, 10x, and 15.8x, respectively, consensus 2026 estimates.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – OCU400 Licensing Agreement For Korea Completed
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.4 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
OCU400 Licensing Agreement For Korea Completed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
OCU400 Licensing Completed. Ocugen has announced the completion of a licensing agreement for Korea with Kwangdong Pharmaceutical, Co., Ltd., a diversified pharmaceutical company in the Republic of South Korea. This finalizes the term sheet announced in August with the 2Q25 business update. We have based our revenue expectations on US and Europe, with the Korea agreement adding additional cash upon the signing and downstream royalties.
Agreement Provides Cash, Milestones, and Royalties. The terms provide Ocugen with signing and near-term milestones of $7.5 million. Under the agreement, Ocugen will manufacture and supply OCU400 in exchange for a royalty of 25% of Net Sales plus sales milestones of $1 million for every $15 million in Net Sales, or roughly 32% per $15 million in sales. There are an estimated 7,000 retinitis pigmentosa (RP) patients in Korea, with an estimated market of about $180 million over the first 10 years of sales. We estimate these potential payments at about $65 million to Ocugen.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – RAIL Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – A Month of Awards
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Increasing PT to US$1.05 or C$1.45
FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.71 | Price Target: $17)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
RAIL Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Protecting the interests of all shareholders. Following a review of the company’s current ownership structure, FreightCar America announced that its Board of Directors adopted a limited-duration stockholder rights plan.The rights plan will expire on August 5, 2026, unless terminated earlier by the Board. The Rights Plan is intended to reduce the likelihood that any person or group gains control of the company through open-market accumulation or other tactics without paying an appropriate control premium. The plan also ensures the Board has sufficient time to make informed decisions that protect the interests of the company and all RAIL shareholders.
Increasing 2026 estimates. We have increased our 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $53.6 million and $0.65, respectively, from $53.2 million and $0.64. Our estimate update reflects stronger deliveries in the second half of the year, with a full-year estimate of 4,850 compared with our previous estimate of 4,800. We now expect quarterly deliveries of: 1Q: 982, 2Q: 1,200, 3Q: 1,284, and 4Q: 1,384. Previously we had assumed: 1Q: 1,346, 2Q: 1,275, 3Q: 1,058, and 4Q: 1,121.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.97 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Month of Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM
More Business. Over the past month, Great Lakes continued to be awarded additional business, according to the Department of War’s daily contract awards release. In total, the announced awards (and recall not all awards are included in the daily notice), totaled approximately $80 million, demonstrating Great Lakes’ operating capabilities as well as the ongoing demand from the government.
September. Most recently, Great Lakes was awarded a $27.9 million firm-fixed-price contract for the removal and disposal of hopper dredge material. Work will be performed in Venice, Louisiana, with an estimated completion date of April 7, 2026. Fiscal 2025 civil operation and maintenance funds in the amount of $27.9 million were obligated at the time of the award.
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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.78 | Price Target: $1.05)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Increasing PT to US$1.05 or C$1.45
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Craigmont mining lease extensions. Nicola Mining Inc. (OTCQB: HUSIF, TSX.V: NIM) secured a five-year extension for six mining leases at its New Craigmont Property from the Ministry of Mining and Critical Minerals. The New Craigmont property encompasses over 10,800 hectares and is adjacent to Teck Resources Limited’s (NYSE: TECK, TSX: TECK.A and TECK.B) Highland Valley Copper Mine, the largest copper mine in Canada. On June 1, Nicola commenced a 4,000-to-5,000-meter diamond drill program at the New Craigmont project. The mining lease extension ensures continuity through the project’s lifecycle.
Shipments of gold concentrate. Earlier this month, Nicola announced that it had commenced shipping gold concentrate via a partnership with Talisker Resources Ltd. (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF). Under a Mining, Milling, and Smelting Agreement, the parties sold 707 ounces of gold in August, generating gross proceeds of approximately US$2.3 million. Production benefited from upgrades to the Merritt Mill, including the installation of a large concentrator that optimized free gold recovery.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Activist Shareholder Calls for Strategic Review
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – A Renewal and Two New Contracts
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Continuing to Lighten
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – A Closer Look Supports Our Favorable Outlook
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.94 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Activist Shareholder Calls for Strategic Review
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Call For A Review. In an amended Schedule 13D filing, investor Lakeview Opportunity Fund has communicated its views on the Company to the CVG management and Board on opportunities for value creation, including through a review process that explores strategic alternatives, including a sale of the Company.
Who Is Lakeview? With Managing Partner Ari Levy, Lakeview is a concentrated and opportunistic multi-strategy fund. The Fund focuses on underfollowed or ignored market areas, such as small and mid-cap value equities, niche Wall Street vehicles, options, and selective shareholder activism, where Lakeview helps companies, generally trading at significant discounts to private market value, unlock shareholder value.
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The GEO Group (GEO/$22.04 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Renewal and Two New Contracts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Contracts. The Florida Department of Corrections has issued Notices of Intent to Award three managed-only contracts to GEO for the assumption of management and support services at the 985-bed Bay Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility and the 1,884-bed Graceville Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility and for the continuation of management and support services at the 985-bed Moore Haven Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility.
Details. The three contracts are expected to have an initial term of three years, effective July 1, 2026, with unlimited two-year renewal option periods. On a combined basis, the three contracts are expected to generate approximately $130 million in annualized revenues, including approximately $100 million in new incremental annualized revenues for GEO. While the new contracts will not begin until next year, the new awards reflect GEO’s ability to provide the services demanded by its government partners, in our view.
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V2X (VVX/$56.62 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Continuing to Lighten
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Another Sale. Private-equity firm American Industrial Partners (AIP), through its Vertex Aerospace subsidiary, sold another 1.7 million VVX shares on September 11th. According to the amended 13D filing, the shares were sold at a price of $52.203 per share through a Rule 144 sale. As we have stated in the past, we continue to expect AIP to sell off its V2X holding over time.
Ownership. Following the most recent share sale, AIP’s ownership is now 8,467,286 VVX shares, representing 26.9% of the outstanding common of V2X. This is down from the 18,591,866 VVX shares, or 61.1% of the then outstanding common, held by AIP just after the Vectrus/Vertex merger in July 2022.
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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$2.63 | Price Target: $4.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Closer Look Supports Our Favorable Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 Results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $73.2 million, modestly beating our estimate of $72.0 million, and adj. EBITDA of $6.7 million, which strongly outperformed our estimate of $0.85 million by 685%. The strong adj. EBITDA was largely driven by management’s ability to execute on its tariff mitigation strategies, resulting in an improved gross profit margin.
Mitigating tariff impacts. Importantly, the company’s gross profit margin increased 300 basis points over the prior year period. The improvement was driven by lower product costing and higher pricing, contributing a 340 basis point improvement, as well as less discounting, which resulted in a 210 basis point improvement. However, the positive margin contributions were softened by tariff and freight impacts of 170 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Acquisition Builds The Pipeline With Anticoagulants In Development
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$13.37 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Acquisition Builds The Pipeline With Anticoagulants In Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cadrenal Acquires Complimentary Cardiovascular Products. Cadrenal announced that it has acquired the anti-coagulant assets of eXlthera Pharmaceuticals. The products include frunexian, a Pre-Phase-2 anti-coagulant drug that inhibits a different step in the coagulation cascade from tecarfarin. Frunexian is in development for different indications and could extend Cadrenal’s product line to additional indications that are not served by current drugs. The acquisition also includes an oral formulation and other research-stage molecules.
Frunexian Has Several Distinguishing Features. The lead product from eXlthera is frunexian, a Factor XIa inhibitor. Most of the DOAC (direct-acting oral anticoagulant) class target Factor Xa and have been developed for long-term use on an outpatient basis. In contrast, frunexian targets Factor XIa, a different component of the coagulation cascade.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, September 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Jonathan P
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI)/OUTPERFORM – Fast Track Designation Gives Benefits Now And In The Future
Metals & Mining (Metals & Mining) – Insights from the Precious Metals Summit
Euroseas (ESEA/$63.97 | Price Target: $71)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Jonathan P
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. announced a new time charter for the M/V Jonathan P at a gross daily rate of $25,000 for a minimum of 11 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 12 months at the charterer’s option. The charter will commence on November 17th.
Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new contract is in direct continuation of the current charter and represents a $5,000 per day increase. It is expected to contribute approximately $5.7 million in EBITDA over the minimum contract period and raise Euroseas’ charter coverage to 100% for the remainder of 2025 and 70% for 2026.
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Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI/$11.23 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fast Track Designation Gives Benefits Now And In The Future
Rating: OUTPERFORM
GLSI-100 Received Fast Track Designation. Greenwich LifeSciences announced that GLSI-100 has received Fast Track designation from the FDA. In the near term, this designation allows GLSI increased communications and more FDA meetings regarding regulatory requirements for its clinical trial data and use of biomarkers. Once the FLAMINGO-01 trial is completed, GLSI will be eligible to apply for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review, potentially shortening the time to market.
The Designation Mirrors The Trial Entry Criteria. GLSI-100 has received Fast Track Designation from the FDA for the treatment of “patients with HLA-A*02 genotype and HER2-positive breast cancer who have completed treatment with standard of care HER2/neu targeted therapy to improve invasive breast cancer free survival…” This includes the clinical trial entry criteria and endpoints for the current double-blind arms of the trial.
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Metals & Mining
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Insights from the Precious Metals Summit
Precious Metals Summit. Noble Capital Markets was well represented at The Precious Metals Summit on September 9-12at the Beaver Creek Resort in Colorado. The conference attracted 1,700 registrants compared to approximately 1,200 in 2024 and included a broad spectrum of mining companies and institutional investors. Collectively, Noble had private meetings with over 70 company management teams during the invitation-only event.
Relative performance. Year-to-date through September 12,mining companies (as measured by the XME) appreciated 51.2% compared to a gain of 11.9% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were up 105.7% and 110.6%, respectively. Platinum, silver, and gold futures prices have gained 55.0%, 46.5%, and 39.6%, respectively, while copper, lead, and nickel increased 15.5%, 3.4% and 0.4%. Zinc declined 1.0%. Precious metals have led the charge as Central Banks around the world have added to global gold reserves, along with greater portfolio allocations among investors to precious metals as a hedge against rising inflation, a depreciating U.S. dollar, concerns about government debt, and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Moreover, there has been a desire among some nations to diversify away from the U.S. dollar as the benchmark reserve currency. Gold has become the global asset of choice to preserve value amid declining confidence in fiat currencies and an era of global monetary, geopolitical, and fiscal uncertainty.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Nutriband Reports 2Q26 With Product Progress
SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG)/OUTPERFORM – Leveraging Strong Brands As A Foundation For Growth
Nutriband (NTRB/$6.93 | Price Target: $15)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Nutriband Reports 2Q26 With Product Progress
Rating: OUTPERFORM
AVERSA Fentanyl Is Moving Forward. Nutriband reported results from 2Q26, ended July 31, 2025, with a loss of $2.12 per share. Revenues for 2Q26 were $0.6 million compared with $0.4 million in 2Q25. The increase was attributed to the expansion of contract manufacturing services in the Pocono Pharma division that produces kinesiology tape. Net loss was $2.0 million before Preferred Dividends of $21.8 million, bringing Net Loss Available To Shareholders to $23.8 million. Cash at the end of the quarter was $6.9 million.
Meeting With The FDA Later In September. The company has scheduled a meeting with the FDA on September 18, 2025, to discuss the upcoming Phase 1 clinical trial for AVERSA Fentanyl. This is a Type C Meeting, requested by the company to discuss product development. The meeting agenda includes the CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls) and other aspects of the Investigational New Drug Application (IND) using the 505(b)(2) route of regulatory approval.
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SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG/$5.63 | Price Target: $20)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Leveraging Strong Brands As A Foundation For Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiation of coverage with Outperform rating and $20 price target. We are initiating coverage on SEGG Media (NASDAQ: SEGG) with an Outperform rating and $20 target. The company is a development-stage operator of international sports and gaming businesses, anchored by valuable brand assets including Sports.com, Lottery.com, TicketStub.com, and Concerts.com.
Developmental stage. Formed out of Lottery.com’s collapse, SEGG has been reconstituted under new leadership with a defined focus on leveraging globally recognized brands. Management is pursuing an asset-light model combining digital platforms, sports media rights, and consumer venues. We believe this strategy positions SEGG to re-establish credibility and execute a compelling growth plan.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Initiated Debt Refinancing
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Delivered A Strong Quarter
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$9.6 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Initiated Debt Refinancing
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strategic update. On September 10, the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Kingpin Intermediate Holdings LLC initiated a private offering of $700 million in new senior secured notes, due in 2032. Concurrently, the company launched a refinancing of its corporate term loan and revolving credit facility. The company expects the initial amount of the refinanced term loan and revolving credit facility to be $1 billion and $400 million, respectively.
Use of capital. Importantly, the net proceeds from the new debt offering and the refinanced credit facilities are earmarked for retiring the company’s existing term loan, revolving credit facility, and bridge loan, which was used to acquire 58 real estate assets in July. Furthermore, the remaining proceeds will be used to fund the company’s strategic initiatives.
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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$1.66 | Price Target: $4.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Delivered A Strong Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 Results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $73.2 million, modestly beating our estimate of $72.0 million, and adj. EBITDA of $6.7 million, which strongly outperformed our estimate of $0.85 million by 685%, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. The strong adj. EBITDA was largely driven by management’s ability to execute on its tariff mitigation strategies, resulting in an improved gross profit margin.
Mitigating tariff impacts. Importantly, the company’s gross profit margin increased 300 basis points over the prior year period. The improvement was driven by lower product costing and higher pricing, contributing a 340 basis point improvement, as well as less discounting, which resulted in a 210 basis point improvement. However, the positive margin contributions were softened by tariff and freight impacts of 170 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – Positioned To End YE2025 With Strong Products and Pipeline Development
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$7.89 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Positioned To End YE2025 With Strong Products and Pipeline Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Gyre Has Made Strong YTD Progress. Gyre has made significant progress during the first three quarters of FY2025 that we believe positions the company for a strong year-end. These developments include continued sales growth from two products introduced in 1H25, an application for Hydronidone approval in China, and the start of a Phase 2 clinical trial for Hydronidone in the US. The company also announced the appointment of Dr. Han Ying as the new CEO, a member of the Board of Directors since January 2025.
Hydronidone Data Showed Efficacy and Proof of Concept. The pivotal Phase 3 trial testing Hydronidone in Chronic Hepatitis B-associated fibrosis has met its primary endpoint of fibrosis regression. The study was conducted in China, and an application for approval by the NMPA (the Chinese regulatory authority) is planned for 3Q2025. Hydronidone has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation, allowing for accelerated review. We expect approval in 2H2026, followed by launch in FY2027.