New technology reduces steam consumption, increases system capacity, and lowers carbon footprint
BATAVIA, N.Y.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Graham Corporation (NYSE: GHM) (“Graham” or “the Company”), a global leader in the design and manufacture of mission critical fluid, power, heat transfer and vacuum technologies for the defense, space, energy and process industries, announced today the successful launch of its NextGen steam ejector nozzle with a customer installation in a Gulf Coast refinery. This marks a significant achievement for the Company’s new technology, which was designed to offer efficiency improvements, environmental benefits and enhanced profitability for customers.
The NextGen steam ejector nozzles are engineered to reduce steam consumption, lower operating costs, and increase system capacity, allowing refineries and process plants to enhance throughput while minimizing their carbon footprint. Ultimately these benefits drive profitability, positioning the NextGen technology as a critical tool for refineries to optimize both performance and financial returns. With this launch, Graham demonstrates its commitment to helping customers meet stringent sustainability goals and emissions regulations through innovation.
In this installation, the customer achieved a 5.6% reduction in overall steam consumption, which is expected to result in the customer saving an estimated $270,000 annually in utility costs. The refinery also increased capacity by 3.1% and improved vacuum levels by 10.4%. Additionally, the reduction in steam usage is expected to cut 1,970 tons of CO2 emissions per year, supporting the customer’s environmental and financial objectives.
Dan Thoren, Graham Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We are very proud to see our NextGen nozzle technology deliver such tangible results. The successful demonstration of our R&D investments through this installation proves the value of innovation in improving efficiency and sustainability. A key benefit of reducing steam consumption is the corresponding reduction in CO2 emissions, which can have a meaningful impact on a plant’s emissions profile and carbon credit position. By optimizing vacuum systems with this new technology, we help our customers improve both their operational efficiency and profitability, while also enhancing their environmental impact.”
NextGen Nozzle Advantages:
Custom Engineered for Specific Applications: Unlike traditional nozzles, which are sized based on historical data, each NextGen nozzle is custom engineered and optimized for individual customer processes. This allows for precise performance improvements tailored to specific operating conditions.
Energy Efficiency: R&D testing shows that NextGen nozzles are 5% to 10% more energy efficient than standard nozzles, reducing the overall energy needed to operate vacuum systems.
Steam Savings: These nozzles target high-compression, first-stage steam jet ejectors, where steam consumption is typically the highest, delivering significant reductions in steam usage.
Seamless Retrofit: The nozzles are designed to fit seamlessly into existing Graham ejectors, making them an easy upgrade option for customers seeking efficiency gains without extensive reconfiguration.
By lowering steam consumption and improving process efficiency, NextGen nozzles also reduce downstream condenser heat loads and emissions from customer boilers, contributing to a more sustainable industrial process.
Mr. Thoren added, “According to our estimates based on the current installed base that can benefit from this enhanced product, we see meaningful potential for our NextGen nozzle technology, with an estimated total market opportunity exceeding $50 million over the next 5 to 10 years. By actively marketing this innovative solution to our extensive customer base across North America and globally, we aim to help more customers achieve significant energy savings, enhance system performance, increase profitability, and reduce their carbon footprints through seamless upgrades to their existing systems.”
For more information on the NextGen nozzle, visit graham-mfg.com or watch an overview video.
About Graham Corporation
Graham is a global leader in the design and manufacture of mission critical fluid, power, heat transfer and vacuum technologies for the defense, space, energy, and process industries. Graham Corporation and its family of global brands are built upon world-renowned engineering expertise in vacuum and heat transfer, cryogenic pumps, and turbomachinery technologies, as well as its responsive and flexible service and the unsurpassed quality customers have come to expect from the Company’s products and systems. Graham Corporation routinely posts news and other important information on its website, grahamcorp.com, where additional information on Graham Corporation and its businesses can be found.
Safe Harbor Regarding Forward Looking Statements
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are identified by words such as “can,” “estimate,” “expects,” “potential,” “will,” and other similar words. All statements addressing operating performance, events, or developments that Graham Corporation expects or anticipates will occur in the future, including but not limited to, the success and efficiencies created by the NextGen steam ejector nozzle, the estimated total market opportunity and the Company’s ability to capitalize on such market opportunity. Because they are forward-looking, they should be evaluated in light of important risk factors and uncertainties. These risk factors and uncertainties are more fully described in Graham Corporation’s most recent Annual Report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including under the heading entitled “Risk Factors,” its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other filings it makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should any of Graham Corporation’s underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those currently anticipated. In addition, undue reliance should not be placed on Graham Corporation’s forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, Graham Corporation disclaims any obligation to update or publicly announce any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements contained in this news release.
MCLEAN, Va., Oct. 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — V2X, Inc., (NYSE: VVX), a leading provider of global mission solutions, will report third quarter 2024 financial results on Monday, November 4, 2024, after market close. Senior management will conduct a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET that same day.
U.S.-based participants may dial in to the conference call at 877-506-6380, while international participants may dial 412-542-4198. A live webcast of the conference call as well as an accompanying slide presentation will be available at https://app.webinar.net/8eqdGbMZ6Xa and on the Investors section of the V2X website at https://gov2x.com/.
A replay of the conference call will be posted on the V2X website shortly after completion of the call and will be available for one year. A telephonic replay will also be available through November 18, 2024, at 844-512-2921 (domestic) or 412-317-6671 (international) with passcode 10193464.
About V2X V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Investor Contact Mike Smith, CFA Vice President, Treasury, Corporate Development and Investor Relations IR@goV2X.com 719-637-5773
Media Contact Angelica Spanos Deoudes Director, Corporate Communications Angelica.Deoudes@goV2X.com 571-338-5195
NEW YORK, October 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Bit Digital, Inc. (Nasdaq: BTBT) (“Bit Digital” or the “Company”), a sustainable platform for digital assets and artificial intelligence (“AI”) infrastructure headquartered in New York, announced today that it has acquired Enovum Data Centers (“Enovum”), an owner, operator, and developer of high-performance computing (“HPC”) datacenters, for a total consideration of approximately CAD $62.8 million (approximately USD $46MM). This transaction vertically integrates Bit Digital’s HPC operations with an existing, fully operational and fully leased Tier 3 datacenter in a major city; provides a strong diversity of existing and prospective colocation customers; delivers a strong pipeline of expansion site opportunities and an experienced team to lead the development processes; and enables Bit Digital to offer new service offerings such as colocation and on-demand computing to complement its existing GPU offerings.
Transaction Overview
Bit Digital has acquired Enovum for a total consideration of CAD $62.8MM (approximately USD $46MM based on a CAD/USD exchange rate of 0.73). The acquisition was completed on a debt-free basis, with a normalized level of working capital acquired, funded by approximately CAD $56 million of cash and approximately 1.62 million share equivalents issued solely to key management who rolled-over a significant portion of their existing ownership in Enovum. The transaction closed on October 11, 2024.
Strategic Rationale
The addition of Enovum vertically integrates Bit Digital’s HPC business into the colocation services sector of the value chain. This creates the potential for significant synergies, as Bit Digital may capture additional margin from HPC customers, versus hosting them with third party datacenters. Additionally, it enhances Bit Digital’s competitive positioning in the marketplace, enabling the Company to offer an integrated GPU cloud solution to customers. Finally, Bit Digital will enjoy greater operating flexibility by colocating its owned GPU inventory in Enovum datacenters, offering capacity to customers on a just-in-time basis – an important differentiator in a marketplace where time-to-market is paramount.
Expansion Pipeline
Enovum has a proprietary development pipeline of 288 MW, including 93MW that are currently under LOI with respective landlords. All sites are in major metropolitan areas and in general will be designed to accommodate direct-to-chip liquid cooling. Immediate term plans include bringing approximately 8MW online by the end of 2Q 2025 for approximately USD $50MM of capex. The Company expects run-rate, colocation EBITDA for the Enovum business to exit 2Q25 at approximately USD $13MM based on that development schedule. Bit Digital may also place its own GPUs at those sites, which could significantly increase EBITDA per MW. The Company is tentatively planning to bring an additional 20MW online by year-end 2025. However, development plans will be contingent on firm customer demand and financing options.
Financing Alternatives
Bit Digital has engaged an investment banking firm to pursue debt financing alternatives to expand Bit Digital’s capital resources to fund both Enovum’s expansion capex, as well as procurement of GPU servers for Bit Digital’s existing cloud business. The Enovum acquisition has been structured to optimize tax outcomes and provide for a potential future REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) election.
Enovum Overview
Enovum, headquartered in Montreal, Canada, is an owner, operator, and developer of HPC datacenters that commenced operations in 2020. Enovum currently operates a 4MW Tier 3 datacenter in Montreal that is powered by renewable hydroelectricity. The site, which is leased through 2036 with two five-year extension options, features 2N UPS and 2N generators with N+1 redundant cooling design. The site is currently fully leased to more than a dozen colocation customers and is expected to generate approximately CAD $10MM of revenue in 2025. Enovum already has strong demand from both existing and new customers for colocation capacity in new capacity to be brought online.
Experienced Team
Bit Digital will retain key employees from Enovum as part of its purchase agreement to ensure operational continuity of the existing site and development of the expansion pipeline. These employees possess decades of collective experience in managing and developing Tier 3 data centers and fill a key gap in Bit Digital’s capabilities.
Management Commentary
Sam Tabar, Bit Digital’s CEO, commented: “We are thrilled to announce a transformational acquisition for Bit Digital. This transaction is the culmination of many months of due diligence and negotiation. Vertical integration on the HPC side has been a priority for Bit Digital and we believe we were able to achieve this goal at an attractive price. For a similar cost to ground-up development, we acquired an operational 4MW facility and a key time value advantage vs. greenfield development; a fully leased site already generating several million dollars of EBITDA; a diverse set of existing customers and firm book for future capacity; and a strong pipeline of future sites with an experienced team to lead the development process.”
Tabar continued: “One of our key criteria for acquiring an HPC site was proximity to a major metropolitan area. The existing site in Montreal and near-term expansions sites are all located in Tier-1 cities. We continue to see major value in having datacenter assets adjacent to highly populous areas as they present the most value for inference models where latency is a primary concern. Following this acquisition and contemplating our expansion program, we believe Bit Digital will be well positioned to accommodate inference workloads. In tandem with the buildout of our datacenter footprint, we will continue to invest in our GPU-as-a-service business, with the two units coalescing to establish a formidable player in the HPC industry.”
Advisors
B. Riley Securities is acting as exclusive financial advisor to Bit Digital, Inc. and Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg LLP and White & Case LLP are acting as legal advisors.
Conference Call
The Company will host a conference call to discuss the acquisition on Tuesday, October 15th, 2024, at 9AM ET. To register for the webcast, please click: here. Additionally, participants can join the conference call by dialing 1- 800-289-0459 (passcode: 632269). An accompanying investor presentation can be found on the investor relations page bit-digital.com.
About Enovum
Enovum is a high-performance computing data center operator headquartered in Montreal, Canada. Enovum operates a Tier 3 datacenter in Montreal that currently has 4MW of capacity. The company also has a pipeline of development sites of more than 280MW, including over 90MW currently under LOI. Enovum has an experienced team that has proven to be able to build state-of-the-art datacenters and source high-value customers to fill that capacity.
About Bit Digital
Bit Digital, Inc. is a sustainable platform for digital assets and artificial intelligence (“AI”) infrastructure headquartered in New York City. Our bitcoin mining operations are located in the US, Canada, and Iceland. The Company has established a business line, Bit Digital AI, that offers infrastructure services for artificial intelligence applications. For additional information, please contact ir@bit-digital.com or visit our website at www.bit-digital.com.
Investor Notice
Investing in our securities involves a high degree of risk. Before making an investment decision, you should carefully consider the risks, uncertainties and forward-looking statements described under “Risk Factors” in Item 3.D of our most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023. If any material risk was to occur, our business, financial condition or results of operations would likely suffer. In that event, the value of our securities could decline and you could lose part or all of your investment. The risks and uncertainties we describe are not the only ones facing us. Additional risks not presently known to us or that we currently deem immaterial may also impair our business operations. In addition, our past financial performance may not be a reliable indicator of future performance, and historical trends should not be used to anticipate results in the future. Future changes in the network-wide mining difficulty rate or bitcoin hash rate may also materially affect the future performance of Bit Digital’s production of bitcoin. Actual operating results will vary depending on many factors including network difficulty rate, total hash rate of the network, the operations of our facilities, the status of our miners, and other factors.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release may contain certain “forward-looking statements” relating to the business of Bit Digital, Inc., and its subsidiary companies. All statements, other than statements of historical fact included herein are “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements are often identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “believes,” “expects,” or similar expressions, involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, and these expectations may prove to be incorrect. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release. The Company’s actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in the Company’s periodic reports that are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on its website at http://www.sec.gov. All forward-looking statements attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these factors. Other than as required under the securities laws, the Company does not assume a duty to update these forward-looking statements.
Lead indication for ZyVersa’s Inflammasome ASC Inhibitor IC 100 is obesity with metabolic complications.
WESTON, Fla., Oct. 15, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — ZyVersa Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: ZVSA, or “ZyVersa”), a clinical stage specialty biopharmaceutical company developing first-in-class drugs for treatment of inflammatory and renal diseases, announces that Stephen C. Glover, Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President, was interviewed on the Big Biz Show to address current trends in the obesity drug market and the potential role of inflammasome inhibitors.
Key Points
Obesity is an international health crisis, with over 50% of the world’s population predicted to be overweight or obese within the next ten years.
Launch of incretin therapy (GLP-1 agonists) for obesity has resulted in substantial and unsurpassed weight loss, stimulating a drug revolution that has led to a 10-fold increase in venture dollars flowing into the category.
High levels of investment in the obesity category are expected to continue due to the trend toward development of add-on therapies to GLP-1 agonists to preserve muscle during weight loss and to attenuate obesity-related inflammation that leads to chronic complications such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and even neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s disease. This is reflected in the billion-dollar acquisitions recently made by Novo and Lilly, and Sanofi’s $27 Million strategic investment in Ventyx’s NLRP3 inhibitor to address the complications of obesity.
ZyVersa’s Inflammasome ASC Inhibitor IC 100 is being developed for use in combination with GLP-1 agonists to control obesity-associated inflammation, attenuate the associated complications, and enhance weight loss. The company is working with renowned experts in the field who are providing guidance to the development program.
About Inflammasome ASC Inhibitor IC 100
IC 100 is a novel humanized IgG4 monoclonal antibody that inhibits the inflammasome adaptor protein ASC. IC 100 was designed to attenuate both initiation and perpetuation of the inflammatory response. It does so by binding to a specific region of the ASC component of multiple types of inflammasomes, including NLRP1, NLRP2, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, and Pyrin. Intracellularly, IC 100 binds to ASC monomers, inhibiting inflammasome formation, thereby blocking activation of IL-1β early in the inflammatory cascade. IC 100 also binds to ASC in ASC Specks, both intracellularly and extracellularly, further blocking activation of IL-1β and the perpetuation of the inflammatory response that is pathogenic in inflammatory diseases. Because active cytokines amplify adaptive immunity through various mechanisms, IC 100, by attenuating cytokine activation, also attenuates the adaptive immune response. The lead indication for IC 100 is obesity and its associated metabolic complications. To review a white paper summarizing the mechanism of action and preclinical data for IC 100, Click Here.
About ZyVersa Therapeutics, Inc.
ZyVersa (Nasdaq: ZVSA) is a clinical stage specialty biopharmaceutical company leveraging advanced proprietary technologies to develop first-in-class drugs for patients with inflammatory or kidney diseases with high unmet medical needs. We are well positioned in the rapidly emerging inflammasome space with a highly differentiated monoclonal antibody, Inflammasome ASC Inhibitor IC 100, and in kidney disease with phase 2 Cholesterol Efflux MediatorTM VAR 200. The lead indication for IC 100 is obesity and its associated metabolic complications, and for VAR 200, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Each therapeutic area offers a “pipeline within a product,” with potential for numerous indications. The total accessible market is over $100 billion. For more information, please visit www.zyversa.com.
Certain statements contained in this press release regarding matters that are not historical facts, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements regarding management’s intentions, plans, beliefs, expectations, or forecasts for the future, and, therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on them. No forward-looking statement can be guaranteed, and actual results may differ materially from those projected. ZyVersa Therapeutics, Inc (“ZyVersa”) uses words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “plans,” “expects,” “projects,” “future,” “intends,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential,” “continue,” “guidance,” and similar expressions to identify these forward-looking statements that are intended to be covered by the safe-harbor provisions. Such forward-looking statements are based on ZyVersa’s expectations and involve risks and uncertainties; consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the statements due to a number of factors, including ZyVersa’s plans to develop and commercialize its product candidates, the timing of initiation of ZyVersa’s planned preclinical and clinical trials; the timing of the availability of data from ZyVersa’s preclinical and clinical trials; the timing of any planned investigational new drug application or new drug application; ZyVersa’s plans to research, develop, and commercialize its current and future product candidates; the clinical utility, potential benefits and market acceptance of ZyVersa’s product candidates; ZyVersa’s commercialization, marketing and manufacturing capabilities and strategy; ZyVersa’s ability to protect its intellectual property position; and ZyVersa’s estimates regarding future revenue, expenses, capital requirements and need for additional financing.
New factors emerge from time-to-time, and it is not possible for ZyVersa to predict all such factors, nor can ZyVersa assess the impact of each such factor on the business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements included in this press release are based on information available to ZyVersa as of the date of this press release. ZyVersa disclaims any obligation to update such forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release, except as required by applicable law.
This press release does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities.
Corporate, Media, and IR Contact: Karen Cashmere Chief Commercial Officer kcashmere@zyversa.com 786-251-9641
MAIA seeks to advance two new THIO-derived telomere-targeting molecules to clinical trials
CHICAGO–(BUSINESS WIRE)– MAIA Biotechnology, Inc., (NYSE American: MAIA) (“MAIA”, the “Company”), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing targeted immunotherapies for cancer, today announced that an abstract related to the company’s second generation of proprietary telomere-targeting THIO prodrugs has been accepted for poster presentation during the upcoming 36th EORTC-NCI-AACR Symposium on Molecular Targets and Cancer Therapeutics, taking place October 23-25, 2024, in Barcelona, Spain. The Symposium is hosted by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR).
MAIA will present the results of preclinical studies for its new THIO-based prodrugs, designated as MAIA-2021-20 and MAIA-2022-12, which are lipid-conjugated compounds derived from THIO. These second-generation compounds belong to a new chemical class of molecules called telomere targeting divalent dinucleotides. These preclinical studies were designed to evaluate the efficacy of the new molecules alone and in combination with or without immune checkpoint-blocking antibodies (anti-PD-L1).
MAIA’s Chief Scientific Officer Sergei Gryaznov, Ph.D. commented, “Our presentation will demonstrate that treatment with each of the prodrugs studied was highly efficacious and was shown to overcome immunotherapy resistance. Our results have shown marked activity in advanced tumors and resulted in tumor growth inhibition in preclinical models of lung cancer, colorectal carcinoma, melanoma and hepatocellular carcinoma. We are actively working to advance these candidates toward clinical development.”
Presentation details:
Title:
New Dual-Pharmacophore Dinucleotide Prodrugs as Potent Telomere Targeting Anticancer Molecules
Abstract number:
ENA24-0044
Session title:
New Drugs
Date and time:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024, at noon CEST
Presenting author:
Ilgen Mender, Ph.D., Director of Biology Research, MAIA Biotechnology
MAIA has designed and evaluated more than 80 THIO-like compounds to date and has submitted three U.S. patent applications for its second-generation telomere targeting agents.
About THIO
THIO (6-thio-dG or 6-thio-2’-deoxyguanosine) is a first-in-class investigational telomere-targeting agent currently in clinical development to evaluate its activity in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). Telomeres, along with the enzyme telomerase, play a fundamental role in the survival of cancer cells and their resistance to current therapies. The modified nucleotide 6-thio-2’-deoxyguanosine (THIO) induces telomerase-dependent telomeric DNA modification, DNA damage responses, and selective cancer cell death. THIO-damaged telomeric fragments accumulate in cytosolic micronuclei and activates both innate (cGAS/STING) and adaptive (T-cell) immune responses. The sequential treatment with THIO followed by PD-(L)1 inhibitors resulted in profound and persistent tumor regression in advanced, in vivo cancer models by induction of cancer type–specific immune memory. THIO is presently developed as a second or later line of treatment for NSCLC for patients that have progressed beyond the standard-of-care regimen of existing checkpoint inhibitors.
About MAIA Biotechnology, Inc.
MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.
Forward Looking Statements
MAIA cautions that all statements, other than statements of historical facts contained in this press release, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause our or our industry’s actual results, levels or activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements. The use of words such as “may,” “might,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “project,” “intend,” “future,” “potential,” or “continue,” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that statements are not forward-looking. For example, all statements we make regarding (i) the initiation, timing, cost, progress and results of our preclinical and clinical studies and our research and development programs, (ii) our ability to advance product candidates into, and successfully complete, clinical studies, (iii) the timing or likelihood of regulatory filings and approvals, (iv) our ability to develop, manufacture and commercialize our product candidates and to improve the manufacturing process, (v) the rate and degree of market acceptance of our product candidates, (vi) the size and growth potential of the markets for our product candidates and our ability to serve those markets, and (vii) our expectations regarding our ability to obtain and maintain intellectual property protection for our product candidates, are forward looking. All forward-looking statements are based on current estimates, assumptions and expectations by our management that, although we believe to be reasonable, are inherently uncertain. Any forward-looking statement expressing an expectation or belief as to future events is expressed in good faith and believed to be reasonable at the time such forward-looking statement is made. However, these statements are not guarantees of future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors beyond our control that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it was made. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In this release, unless the context requires otherwise, “MAIA,” “Company,” “we,” “our,” and “us” refers to MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. and its subsidiaries.
Key Points: – Oil futures dropped over 5% as fears of Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil facilities eased. – Weak demand in China and OPEC’s downward revision of oil forecasts are adding pressure on crude prices. – The International Energy Agency (IEA) signals a surplus in global oil supply, further dampening the market.
Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, dropping more than 5%, as geopolitical concerns surrounding Israel and Iran’s oil industry began to ease. Initially, fears of potential supply disruptions spiked oil prices after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel earlier this month, but the market has now calmed as Israel is not expected to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure.
At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has weighed in, signaling that its member nations are prepared to take action if any supply disruption occurs in the Middle East. For now, however, global oil supply remains steady, and with the absence of major disruptions, the market faces a likely surplus in the new year.
As of Tuesday morning, energy prices were reacting to both the geopolitical environment and broader market dynamics:
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) November futures fell by $3.74, or 5.07%, to $70.08 per barrel. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has seen a 2% decline.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell by $3.67, or 4.7%, to $73.79 per barrel, continuing its year-to-date drop of about 4%.
Gasoline prices also dipped, with the November contract down 4.47% to $2.014 per gallon, bringing year-to-date losses to nearly 4%.
Natural gas was the exception, seeing a slight rise of 1.36% to $2.528 per thousand cubic feet.
The significant drop in crude prices reflects more than just geopolitics. The oil market has been facing weakening demand, particularly from China, and ongoing concerns about a global economic slowdown. OPEC’s recent decision to cut its 2024 oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month has further contributed to the pressure on oil prices.
China’s oil consumption has been particularly weak in recent months, with the IEA reporting that Chinese demand dropped by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline, adding to the overall bearish sentiment surrounding global oil demand.
The broader outlook for 2024 and 2025 also suggests slower demand growth compared to the post-pandemic recovery. The IEA projects global oil demand to increase by just under 900,000 bpd in 2024 and 1 million bpd in 2025, which is a noticeable drop from the 2 million bpd growth seen in the previous years.
At the same time, crude production in the Americas, particularly the U.S., is on track to grow. According to the IEA, American-led production will increase by 1.5 million bpd this year and next, further contributing to the global supply glut.
For the third consecutive month, OPEC has revised its oil demand forecast downward, reflecting concerns about slower economic growth and subdued consumption in major markets like China. The cuts come as the cartel faces pressure to balance supply with softer global demand.
As a result of these factors, analysts now expect the oil market to shift its focus away from geopolitical fears and towards demand weakness, which could define the market’s trajectory in the months ahead. While geopolitical events may continue to inject short-term volatility, the more significant concern remains the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand.
Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is a prominent pure-play Capesize shipping company listed in the U.S. capital markets. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of Capesize vessels. The Company’s operating fleet consists of 18 vessels (1 Newcastlemax and 17 Capesize) with an average age of approximately 13.4 years and an aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,236,212 dwt. Upon completion of the delivery of the previously announced Capesize vessel acquisition, the Company’s operating fleet will consist of 19 vessels (1 Newcastlemax and 18 Capesize) with an aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,417,608 dwt. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands and has executive offices in Glyfada, Greece. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP”.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updating Estimates. We are increasing our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $102.1 million and $2.56, respectively, from $101.1 million and $2.35. Additionally, we have increased our 2025 EPS estimates to $102.0 million and $2.39 from $101.3 million and $2.00. Our revised estimates reflect greater operating days and modestly higher time charter rates, along with lower interest expense.
Capesize Vessel Market Fundamentals. We think the outlook for the Capesize shipping market will remain favorable through 2025. Many of the same 2024 tailwinds that have benefited the Capesize market are expected to continue, including strong demand growth for dry bulk commodities, continued disruptions in the Red Sea, and a historically low orderbook for Capesize vessels. Additionally, lower interest rates could boost global economic trade and benefit industry participants.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
HPC Business Integrated. Bit Digital announced the acquisition of Enovum Data Centers for approximately CAD $62.8 million (USD $46 million), consisting of CAD$56 million in cash and 1.62 million shares being issued to Enovum’s management. The transaction will vertically integrate the Company’s HPC business with a Tier 3 datacenter and a pipeline of expansion site opportunities. In addition to vertically integrating and potential expansion, the acquisition provides Bit Digital with potential synergies for margin expansion and operational flexibility.
Who is Enovum? Enovum is an owner, operator, and developer of HPC datacenters based in Montreal, Canada. The company has a 4MW Tier 3 datacenter in Montreal powered by renewable hydroelectricity, a benefit to Bit Digital’s carbon-free strategy. The site is leased through 2036 with two five-year extension options, and is fully leased to more than a dozen customers with it expected to generate CAD$10 million of revenue in 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Vertically Integrating with Acquisition of Enovum Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Outlook for Capesize Vessel Market Remains Favorable, Increasing Our 2024 and 2025 Estimates
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.29 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Vertically Integrating with Acquisition of Enovum Rating: OUTPERFORM
HPC Business Integrated. Bit Digital announced the acquisition of Enovum Data Centers for approximately CAD $62.8 million (USD $46 million), consisting of CAD$56 million in cash and 1.62 million shares being issued to Enovum’s management. The transaction will vertically integrate the Company’s HPC business with a Tier 3 datacenter and a pipeline of expansion site opportunities. In addition to vertically integrating and potential expansion, the acquisition provides Bit Digital with potential synergies for margin expansion and operational flexibility.
Who is Enovum? Enovum is an owner, operator, and developer of HPC datacenters based in Montreal, Canada. The company has a 4MW Tier 3 datacenter in Montreal powered by renewable hydroelectricity, a benefit to Bit Digital’s carbon-free strategy. The site is leased through 2036 with two five-year extension options, and is fully leased to more than a dozen customers with it expected to generate CAD$10 million of revenue in 2025.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$10.41 | Price Target: $14) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Outlook for Capesize Vessel Market Remains Favorable, Increasing Our 2024 and 2025 Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating Estimates. We are increasing our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $102.1 million and $2.56, respectively, from $101.1 million and $2.35. Additionally, we have increased our 2025 EPS estimates to $102.0 million and $2.39 from $101.3 million and $2.00. Our revised estimates reflect greater operating days and modestly higher time charter rates, along with lower interest expense.
Capesize Vessel Market Fundamentals. We think the outlook for the Capesize shipping market will remain favorable through 2025. Many of the same 2024 tailwinds that have benefited the Capesize market are expected to continue, including strong demand growth for dry bulk commodities, continued disruptions in the Red Sea, and a historically low orderbook for Capesize vessels. Additionally, lower interest rates could boost global economic trade and benefit industry participants.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 11, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ Inc (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Tempering Our Expectations; Rating Remains an Outperform Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – A New 10b5-1 Plan Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – A New Era For Tonix Begins With The Tonmya NDA Filing
Second quarter financial results. For the fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported second quarter adjusted net income of $41.3 million or $1.37 per share compared to $37.2 million or $1.27 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $40.8 million or $1.35 per share. AZZ maintained its FY 2025 sales guidance range of $1.525 billion to $1.625 billion, lifted the lower end of adjusted EBITDA to a range of $320 million (from $310 million) to $360 million, and increased adjusted diluted EPS expectations to a range of $4.70 to $5.10 from $4.50 to $5.00.
Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $343.0 million and $4.95, respectively, from $350.3 million and $5.00. Our estimates reflect seasonality in the second half of the year. Our 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates have been reduced to $361.2 million and $5.45, respectively, from $366.8 million and $5.70. Our 2026 estimates reflect a slower ramp in revenue from the new facility under construction in Washington, Missouri.
Steelcase (SCS/$12.6 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A New 10b5-1 Plan Rating: OUTPERFORM
A New Plan. Yesterday, after the market closed, Steelcase filed an 8-k with the Securities & Exchange Commission reporting the Company has entered into a stock repurchase agreement with an independent third party broker. The agreement was established in accordance with Rule 10b5-1 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We believe share repurchases are a good use of excess cash on the balance sheet at current prices.
Details. The broker is authorized to repurchase up to 1.5 million shares of the Company’s common stock on behalf of the Company during the period from October 11, 2024 through December 20, 2024, subject to certain price, market and volume constraints specified in the agreement. At yesterday’s closing price, acquiring the shares would cost approximately $19 million and the 1.5 million shares represent approximately 1.6% of the outstanding Class A shares. The Company has $79.9 million remaining under its $100 million share repurchase plan authorization.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$0.14 | Price Target: $1.5) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 A New Era For Tonix Begins With The Tonmya NDA Filing Rating: OUTPERFORM
We Expect The NDA Filing For Tonmya Approval To Be Submitted Shortly. We anticipate the NDA submission for Tonmya to be announced around the end of October 2024. This would start the FDA review process, which we expect to lead to marketing approval in mid-2025. In July, Tonmya received Fast Track Review, a designation that gives advantages in the regulatory pathway. With a pending NDA submission for a drug that could be used by millions of patients, we believe the company’s progress has not been reflected in the stock price.
Fast Track Review Is A Significant Distinction. The Fast Track Review designation from the FDA is awarded to drugs that can make significant impact on serious medical conditions. The designation provides important benefits including increased communications with the FDA, as well as eligibility for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review. We expect the application for Accelerated Approval to be filed shortly after the NDA is completed. This could shorten the FDA’s review period by up to 4 months.
Second quarter financial results. For the fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported second quarter adjusted net income of $41.3 million or $1.37 per share compared to $37.2 million or $1.27 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $40.8 million or $1.35 per share. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.4% to $91.9 million, roughly in line with our estimate, representing 22.5% of sales versus 22.1% of sales during the second quarter of FY 2024. While sales of $409.0 million were modestly below our $410.5 million estimate, AZZ generated a 25.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 24.4% during the prior year period and our estimate of 24.4%. AZZ maintained its FY 2025 sales guidance range of $1.525 billion to $1.625 billion, lifted the lower end of adjusted EBITDA to a range of $320 million (from $310 million) to $360 million, and increased adjusted diluted EPS expectations to a range of $4.70 to $5.10 from $4.50 to $5.00.
Debt reduction. During the first half of FY25, AZZ generated operating cash flow of $119.4 million and reduced debt by $45 million. Management expects to reduce debt by at least $100 million during the fiscal year compared to prior expectations of $60 million to $90 million. At quarter end, the company’s net leverage was 2.7x trailing twelve months EBITDA and cash and cash equivalents amounted to $2.2 million.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.25 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Raises Capital at Favorable Price Rating: OUTPERFORM
Scores additional funding. This week, the company announced that it secured $11 million in additional funding through the issuance of convertible preferred shares. At $2 per share, the company raised the funds at a premium to the current share price, which has fluctuated around $1 per share in recent months. The shares will pay an 8% annualized dividend (quarterly installments) and are convertible to common shares at $2 per share.
Strategic relationship. Lance Shaner is the leading investor in the preferred share offering, which includes several other company insiders. Notably, Mr. Shaner, who chairs SKYX’s Hotel Advisory Board, is the CEO of Shaner Hotel Group, a leading developer of Marriot hotels. In our view, the vote of confidence given by Mr. Shaner could signal potential hotel partnerships for the company in the future and serves as continued validation of the company’s technology by industry insiders.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.36 | Price Target: $7) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Results From Phase 1 Trial Testing UNI-494 In Acute Kidney Injury Announced Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 1 Trial Tested Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics At Multiple Doses. Unicycive announced completion of the Phase 1 trial testing UNI-494, its product in development for protecting against acute kidney injury. The study was designed to determine tolerability, safety, and pharmacokinetic data for the design of Phase 2. Unicycive plans to present the study at an upcoming scientific meeting.
UNI-494 Is In Development For Preventing Acute Kidney Injury. UNI-494 is a proprietary formulation of nicorandil to protect against the mitochondrial dysfunction and prevent pathways that lead to cell death in acute kidney injury. The proprietary formulation increases the half-life and makes it practical for administration, while maintaining its properties as a nicotinamide ester derivative and selective activator of the ATP-sensitive mitochondrial potassium channel.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL)/MARKET PERFORM – Ex CEO Endorses Dissident Slate Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – A Global Leader with Room to Grow Traws Pharma (TRAW)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 1 Study In Influenza Shows Positive Data With Plans To Move To Phase 2
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL/$4.46) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Ex CEO Endorses Dissident Slate Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Peterman Endorsement. Former CEO Ken Peterman, who was terminated for “conduct unrelated to Comtech’s business strategy, financial results or previously filed financial statements” this past March, has publicly declared his personal endorsement for the full slate of director nominees proposed by Michael Porcelain for the Company’s upcoming 2024 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, adding another layer of intrigue to the dissident efforts.
Reasons. Mr. Peterman notes serious concerns about many decisions made by the current Board, including the June 2024 refinancing, and what he terms the Board’s lack of critical domain expertise in Comtech’s core satellite and NG 911 markets.
Steelcase (SCS/$12.78 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Global Leader with Room to Grow Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of Steelcase Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $16 price target. Already the global leader in the office furniture marketplace, we believe there is a substantial opportunity to capture additional wallet share. The Company’s research driven approach is a competitive differentiator, in our view.
Largest, But Room to Grow. Despite being the market leader, we believe Steelcase can benefit from a rising market share in a growing market. Steelcase’s overall market share is relatively modest, providing opportunity for Steelcase to capture additional market share, while secular trends are driving overall growth in the market, with the worldwide Office Furniture space projected to grow at a 7.1% CAGR through 2032.
Traws Pharma (TRAW/$4.8 | Price Target: $7) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Phase 1 Study In Influenza Shows Positive Data With Plans To Move To Phase 2 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Positive Results Announced From Tivoxavir Marboxil Study. Positive data was announced from the Phase 1 clinical trial testing safety and pharmacokinetics of Tivoxavir Marboxil, Traw’s drug in development for seasonal and pandemic influenza. The study showed tolerability and bloodstream levels within the expected range, supporting use as a one-time treatment for flu. The dose for Phase 2 has been selected with the trial planned to begin in 1H2025.
Tivoxavir Inhibitor A Protease Needed For Viral Replication. Tivoxavir acts through inhibition of CAP-dependent endonucleases (CEN), a highly conserved influenza protein needed for the synthesis of its viral mRNA. Tivoxavir was designed for use across a broad range of flu viruses including the H5N1 bird flu virus. Preclinical studies have shown potent inhibition of drug-resistant influenza viruses.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock Inc. (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – GenMat Acquisition Positions Comstock to Leverage the Power of AI Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates Due to New Time Charter Contract for the M/V Jonathan P Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Ignite’s Its Growth
Comstock Inc. (LODE/$0.51 | Price Target: $2.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 GenMat Acquisition Positions Comstock to Leverage the Power of AI Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquisition of Quantum Generative Materials (GenMat). Comstock executed an agreement to acquire Quantum Generative Materials, including GenMat’s artificial intelligence materials discovery platform, along with retaining most of the associated technical team. A holding company controlled by Mr. Deep Prasad, GenMat’s founder, will assume control of GenMat’s space-oriented business. GenMat will become a 100%-owned subsidiary of Comstock Inc. and will continue development and commercialization of its physics-based artificial intelligence products and services.
Transaction terms. GenMat will pay $1 million to Mr. Prasad in exchange for the assignment of the rights and related intellectual property. Comstock will make the following payments: 1) $250,000 on the closing date, 2) $250,000 on November 15, 2024, and 3) $500,000 on March 31, 2025. Under terms of the agreement, Mr. Prasad is entitled to a contingent earn-out payment equal to 3% of either the consideration paid in connection with a liquidation of GenMat in excess of $100 million or funds raised by GenMat upon completion of an initial public offering valuing GenMat in excess of $100 million.
Euroseas (ESEA/$44.25 | Price Target: $64) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updating Estimates Due to New Time Charter Contract for the M/V Jonathan P Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Time Charter Contract: Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for M/V Jonathan P at a gross daily rate of $20,000 for a minimum period of 11 to a maximum period of 13 months at the option of the charterer. The M/V Jonathan is a 1,740 TEU feeder container ship. Recall that TEU is a unit of cargo capacity that is based on the volume of a 20-foot-long intermodal container that can be transferred between different carriers. The new charter is expected to commence in mid-to-late October 2024.
Profitable Rate and Improved Charter Coverage: The new time charter is expected to contribute EBITDA of ~$4.0 million during the minimum contracted period and improves 2024 and 2025 charter coverage to 96% and 52%, respectively. While the rate is lower than the previous time charter, it is above our prior 2025 rate estimate of $15,000 per day. Moreover, the contract enhances revenue visibility by locking in a profitable rate through 2025.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$10.44 | Price Target: $21) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Ignite’s Its Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Forms a strategic partnership. The company announced that it formed a strategic partnership with SummitMedia to offer Townsquare Ignite’s digital advertising solutions to nine of its radio markets that do not overlap with Townsquare’s. We believe that the agreement highlights Townsquare’s preeminence in the digital media space. The agreement will largely kick off in first quarter 2025.
Utilizes SummitMedia’s sales force. Townsquare plans to train SummitMedia’s staff on digital sales practices, at SummitMedia’s expense. Townsquare will add relationship managers to service SummitMedia, execute campaigns, (including creative), and to provide back office support.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, October 7, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – September Production In-line with Last Month InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Tempering 2024 and 2025 Expectations; Rating Remains an Outperform PDS Biotechnology (PDSB)/OUTPERFORM – Clinical Trial in Cervical Cancer Shows Improved Survival and Supports Use In Other Tumors
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.37 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | September Production In-line with Last Month Rating: OUTPERFORM
AI Services. Bit Digital had 256 servers actively generating revenue from its initial Bit Digital AI contract, as of September 30, 2024, and earned approximately $4.2 million of unaudited revenue from this contract during the month.
Mining Side. The Company produced 51.5 BTC in September, a 3.6% decrease from last month’s 53.4 BTC. The active hash rate was 2.43 EH/s, flat with the previous month. Management will continue to be opportunistic with miner purchases dependent upon the returns, in our view.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$1.55 | Price Target: $5.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Tempering 2024 and 2025 Expectations; Rating Remains an Outperform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lower third quarter commodity prices. During the third quarter, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices declined 18.2% to $68.17 per barrel and averaged $75.35 per barrel. InPlay sells oil at monthly average Edmonton Par prices which are based on the price of WTI crude oil minus quality differentials, transportation, and marketing fees. Crude oil prices have risen since the end of the quarter due to heightened geopolitical risk with WTI crude oil priced at $74.45 per barrel on October 4. WTI and Henry Hub futures prices average $71.16 per barrel and $3.40 per mcf in 2025. We note that natural gas prices in Canada were weak relative to Henry Hub prices during the third quarter.
Outlook for 2025. For 2024, the company forecast average production of 8,700 to 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). We are forecasting 2024 production of 8,682 barrels of oil equivalents per day compared to our previous estimate of 8,952 boe/d due to lower third and fourth quarter expectations. We think the company may start off with a conservative 2025 plan that targets production at the upper end of 2024 guidance and have lowered our production expectations to 8,971 from 9,638 barrels of oil equivalents per day.
PDS Biotechnology (PDSB/$3.71 | Price Target: $17) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Clinical Trial in Cervical Cancer Shows Improved Survival and Supports Use In Other Tumors Rating: OUTPERFORM
Interim Data From Phase 2 Cervical Cancer Trial Presented. An interim analysis from the Phase 2 ImmunoCerv Trial in locally advanced cervical cancer was presented at the American Society For Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) annual meeting on October 1, 2024. Overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) showed clinically meaningful improvements over published studies. We believe this supports the efficacy of Versamune HPV in cervical cancer as well as other HPV16+ tumors in other tissues.
Study Design. The ImmunoCerv study was an investigator-initiated trial (ITT) conducted at MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas. The study enrolled 17 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk HPV-related cervical tumors at least 5 cm in size. Patients received up to 5 doses of Versamune HPV along with standard of care chemotherapy and radiation.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 4, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Memoranda of Understanding Executed to Advance Nickel-Rich Placer Project in France Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Sharper Focus with Automation Sale
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.463 | Price Target: $0.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Memoranda of Understanding Executed to Advance Nickel-Rich Placer Project in France Rating: OUTPERFORM
Memoranda of Understanding. Through a wholly owned subsidiary, Aurania entered into a non-binding Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with the Communes of Ogliastro and Nonza in Cap Corse, Northern Corsica, France for the exploitation of heavy mineral beach placers that are enriched with nickel and other metals. An accumulation of black sand comprised of awaruite and magnetite on the beaches of Albo and Nonza originated from asbestos mine waste that had previously been dumped in the Mediterranean Sea. The waste traveled up along the coast and accumulated silt at the historic ports of Albo and Nonza. Awaruite is a natural nickel-iron mineral alloy.
Placers are rich in nickel. While no resource or reserve has been established, Activation Laboratories Ltd. conducted an analysis of a heavy mineral concentrate produced by simple panning of the beach sand by hand which yielded an assay of 50.4% nickel, 0.701% cobalt, and 0.476% copper. Moreover, a Mozley gravity table concentrate of magnetic beach sand performed by SGS Laboratories yielded 40.1% nickel. At some point, we think Aurania will likely take a bulk sample for analysis.
Information Services Group (III/$3.24 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Sharper Focus with Automation Sale Rating: OUTPERFORM
Sale of a Unit. Wednesday, ISG announced the sale of its non-core automation unit to UST, a digital transformation solutions company, for $27 million. At closing, ISG received $20 million in cash with $4 million to be released over the next 90 days and $3 million to be released at the end of 1Q25. Proceeds will be used for reducing debt, re-investing in the business, and returning capital to shareholders. Automation contributed roughly $30 million of annual revenue, including $18 million of recurring revenue.
AI Business. With large enterprises’ increasing focus on AI, ISG is placing more emphasis in this area and we believe is poised to capitalize on future spending through its AI Advisory and Research segments. Early indications of growing demand are showing with ISG Tango’s total contract value rising at the end of the second quarter.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 3, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock Inc. (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – Collaborative Agreements with the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Closes Acquisition After Busy September Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary and Updated Model
Comstock Inc. (LODE/$0.43 | Price Target: $2.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Collaborative Agreements with the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory Rating: OUTPERFORM
Laying the groundwork for a successful moonshot. Comstock IP Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary, executed an Exclusive License Agreement (ELA) and Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, the managing and operating contractor of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The agreements provide access to technologies developed by NREL and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to convert lignocellulosic biomass into aromatic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The goal is to produce the world’s first 100% renewable SAF at costs approaching parity with fossil fuels by integrating Comstock and NREL technologies.
Cooperative Research and Development Agreement. Terms include a three-year scope of work to jointly develop an integrated process based on Comstock and NREL processes and technologies to refine woody biomass into aromatic SAF and other renewable fuels. Comstock will fund the research and contribute staff, equipment, and use of its pilot facility in Wisconsin. The CRADA is expected to result in the construction of a pre-commercial pilot system to affirm requirements needed to scale-up and incorporate the resulting process into Comstock’s planned 50,000 metric ton per year commercial demonstration facility.
GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO/$8.98 | Price Target: $22) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Closes Acquisition After Busy September Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquired e-TeleQuote. On October 1, GoHealth announced that it closed on its acquisition of e-TeleQuote, one of its peers in the Medicare insurance marketplace landscape. The deal was originally announced in early September. In our view, the terms of the transaction were highly favorable to the company as the deal appears to be immediately accretive to the company’s balance sheet.
Favorable Terms. The company acquired e-TeleQuote through a creative agreement, in which it invested $5 million for a roughly 19% stake in the business through newly issued shares. At that time, the previous owner relinquished its 81% stake, leaving GoHealth as the sole shareholder. This left the company with all the assets on the e-TeleQuote balance sheet, with over $18 million in cash (including the $5 million paid by GoHealth) and over $100 million in contract assets. The company also gains almost 400 experienced agents.
Resources Connection (RGP/$8.35 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Post Call Commentary and Updated Model Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Model. We believe it is informative to take a deeper dive into the operational changes being made by RGP over the past quarter. The Company has taken the challenging operating environment to create a strong platform, broaden its addressable market, deepen client relationships, and improve efficiency, all of which position the Company to capitalize on the environment once it improves, in our view.
Impact. The On Demand Talent segment is increasingly relevant in the professional staffing space. The new Consulting segment positions RGP higher up the professional services value chain, enabling RGP to play a key role in transformation strategy and execution initiatives. And the Outsourced Services segment is expanding its client base, especially among venture-backed AI startups, while also exploring cross-selling opportunities within the existing client base.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 1Q25 – Environment Remains Challenging but Green Shoots Evident
Resources Connection (RGP/$9.47 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | First Look 1Q25 – Environment Remains Challenging but Green Shoots Evident Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. While the operating environment remained challenged in 1Q25 as clients continued to delay projects, RGP made strides in evolving its business model and rebuilding its brand architecture and positioning. A full recovery should follow improving client sentiment about the economy, but the Company is seeing pockets of improvement.
1Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $136.9 million, a decline of 19.5% y-o-y, but in-line with guidance. Gross margin was 36.5%, down from 39.4% a year ago and below management’s 37.5%-38.5% guide due to lower consultant utilization and unfavorable leverage on indirect costs. RGP recorded a $3.4 million gain on a sale as well as a $3.9 million impairment charge. Net loss for the quarter was $5.7 million, or a loss of $0.17/sh, compared to net income of $3.1 million, or EPS of $0.09/sh last year. Adjusted EPS was breakeven versus EPS of $0.20/sh in 1Q24.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – What to Expect for the Remainder of 2024 Traws Pharma (TRAW)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 1 Ratutrelvir Results Announced With Plans To Move To Phase 2a
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.38 | Price Target: $0.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 What to Expect for the Remainder of 2024 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Exploration at Kuri-Yawi. Aurania is preparing for an induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey of the Kuri-Yawi gold target in Ecuador. The vendor has been selected and the survey is expected to begin in the second half of October. The survey is expected to take approximately one month to complete after which management will review the data to identify targets for a drilling program that we think could commence in the first quarter of 2025. We also believe fieldwork has continued at Crunchy Hill during the quarter.
Anaconda mapping program. Anaconda mapping of the southern and northern parts of Aurania’s Awacha porphyry copper target in Ecuador has been completed. Aurania’s team of geologists is now interpreting the data to define targets for future drilling programs. During the field program, new intrusive outcrops with typical porphyry alteration were discovered.
Traws Pharma (TRAW/$5.88 | Price Target: $7) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Phase 1 Ratutrelvir Results Announced With Plans To Move To Phase 2a Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 1 Topline Data Shows Safety and Tolerability. Traws Pharma announced results from its Phase 1 trial testing ratutrelvir, its oral protease inhibitor for COVID-19. The trial was designed to determine pharmacokinetics and safety, with results showing consistent plasma levels within the expected range with no adverse events. A Phase 2a trial is being planned to begin in 1H2025.
Ratutrelvir Could Become A Category-Leading Drug. Ratutrelvir is an inhibitor of the SARS-CoV-2 Main protease (Mpro or 3CL protease). It has demonstrated in vitro activity against the original viral strain and numerous variants, including delta and omicron. Ratutrelvir does not require co-administration of ritonavir as a metabolic inhibitor and avoids the drug-drug interactions and potential side effects. In comparison, Pfizer’s Paxlovid is a combination of its Mpro inhibitor, nirmatrelvir, with ritonavir as a metabolic (cytochrome P450) inhibitor.
Client Meetings Answered Questions About Tegoprubart. We held a Virtual Non-Deal Road Show with Eledon’s CEO, Dr. DA Gros. The discussions with clients covered tegoprubart history of development, mechanism of action, clinical trials, and its upcoming milestones. Some of the points raised and common questions are highlighted below.
The Phase 2 BESTOW Trial Completed Enrollment In August. Eledon announced the completion of enrollment for its Phase 2 BESTOW trial that tests tegoprubart against tacrolimus for prevention of kidney transplant rejection. The enrollment was completed ahead of the expected YE2024 timeframe due to higher than expected interest from the transplant surgeons.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 25, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ Inc (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights from the Noble Virtual Basic Industries Equity Conference. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Conference Presentation Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Hemisphere Provides an Operational Update and Declares a Special Dividend MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Transitioning from R&D to Commercialization Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – An Opportunistic Entry Point V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Conference Presentation
AZZ Inc (AZZ/$80.92 | Price Target: $100) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Highlights from the Noble Virtual Basic Industries Equity Conference. Rating: OUTPERFORM
New manufacturing facility is on schedule and on budget. AZZ Inc. participated in Noble’s Virtual Basic Industries Conference on September 25. AZZ is the leading independent provider of hot-dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions to a broad range of end markets. With AZZ Precoat Metals’ new manufacturing facility in Washington, Missouri expected to be completed in fiscal year 2025, we expect the facility to contribute to top-line growth in fiscal year 2026 while capital expenditures decline. Approximately 75% of the facility’s production is already committed that we estimate could generate approximately $50 million to $60 million in revenue. A link to the presentation replay is here.
Declining debt balance and cost of capital. Based on the company’s strong first quarter fiscal year 2025 results and outlook, we have assumed AZZ will pay down $90 million of debt this fiscal year, or at the high end of the guidance range. On September 24, AZZ executed a fourth amendment to its existing credit agreement and reduced the interest rate of the Term Loan B by 75 basis points to the Adjusted Term Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 250 basis points.
Operating Performance. Great Lakes has completed three successful quarters in a row and the Company believes the strong operating outlook will continue for the foreseeable future, driven by record budgets at the U.S. Army Corps, supplemental funding for hurricane impacted areas now being released, and other additional funding for large projects expected in the second half of the decade.
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.41 | Price Target: $2.3) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hemisphere Provides an Operational Update and Declares a Special Dividend Rating: OUTPERFORM
Operational update. Hemisphere has drilled six horizontal wells into its southeast Alberta Atlee Buffalo F and G pools over the past two months, with two wells left to drill as part of its summer program. Drilling operations are expected to be completed early in the fourth quarter with wells put into production as they are tied-in through the remainder of the year. Hemisphere has also commenced polymer injection at its new pilot enhanced oil recovery project in Marsden, Saskatchewan. Management anticipates that it could take until mid-2025 to increase reservoir pressure and to evaluate the production response at the three producers.
Updating estimates. Crude oil prices have weakened since our last update. We have lowered our 2024 adjusted funds flow (AFF) and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to C$43.8 million and C$0.31, respectively, from C$45.4 million and C$0.35. Our third and fourth quarter EPS estimates were lowered by C$0.02 each to C$0.08 and C$0.06, respectively, based on average per barrel WTI crude oil prices of $75.69 and $71.20. While futures prices suggest 2025 WTI pricing in the $68 to $70 per barrel range, we are leaving our 2025 estimates unchanged for now based on a WTI crude oil price of $74.95 per barrel.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.83) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Transitioning from R&D to Commercialization Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Update and Presentation. On Tuesday, we had the opportunity to participate in a webinar presentation and interview with MustGrow’s management providing an update on the current progress of the Company’s pipeline and its future. Key takeaways of the update, in our view, were the progress towards sales of its TerraSante product, advancing towards commercialization of its TerraMG product, and the expansion of the Company’s intellectual property portfolio.
TerraSante. The Company has been underway in its planning for larger-scale production on TerraSante. The Company had its initial commercial production run in 2023 and had its first sales during the third quarter this year. Management is seeing strong initial interest in the product, primarily from California, and has the opportunity for multiple applications per year for various crop markets, which could potentially triple acre coverage. We believe that we will continue to see more state approvals for the product in the near term as management has focused on getting such approvals.
Snail (SNAL/$0.75 | Price Target: $6) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | An Opportunistic Entry Point Rating: OUTPERFORM
Stock slips below $1. The SNAL shares are down roughly 40% YTD. We believe this slide is an over reaction to the company’s “miss” in first half earnings, which was largely related to deferred revenue. The company has a favorable long term fundamental outlook and is financially healthy, with a sizable cash position and positive cash flow generation.
Fundamentals do NOT appear broken. We expect company fundamentals to improve over the next eighteen months. In 2024, revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to increase to $88.7 million and $12.3 million, respectively, up from $60.9 million and negative $9.7 million in 2023. In 2025, we anticipate revenue and adjusted EBITDA to reach $105.0 million and $24.5 million. This growth is backed by a number of exciting developments, including the rollout of more Down Loadable Content (DLC) packages for Ark: Survival Ascended, which should help alleviate noise surrounding deferred revenue.
Noble Conference. We hosted V2X President and CEO Jeremy Wensinger at our Basic Industries Virtual Investor Conference. Mr. Wensinger touched on the Company’s end-to-end capabilities, including full lifecycle solutions, large backlog, positive future opportunity, and an expanding addressable market. A replay of the presentation, including Q&A can be viewed at: https://www.channelchek.com/videos/v2x-inc-vvx-noble-capital-markets-basic-industries-virtual-conference-replay
Expanding Addressable Market. With the combination of Vectrus and Vertex, V2X is now able to pursue opportunities previously out of either individual company’s reach, expanding V2X’s addressable market. The prime example of this is the July award of the $3.7 billion War Fighter Training Readiness contract, which combined strengths of both the old Vectrus and Vertex into a winning proposal, even against stiff competition.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Synergy Busan
Euroseas (ESEA/$47.39 | Price Target: $63) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Synergy Busan Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for M/V Synergy Busan at a gross daily rate of $35,500 for a minimum period of 36 to a maximum period of 38 months at the option of the charterer. The M/V Synergy Busan is 4,250 TEU intermediate container ship. Recall that TEU is a unit of cargo capacity that is based on the volume of a twenty-foot-long intermodal container that can be transferred between different carriers. The new charter will commence in early December 2024 in continuation of its existing charter.
Favorable rate and improved charter coverage. The new time charter is a significant improvement over the previous contracted rate of $25,000 per day and is expected to contribute EBITDA of ~$29 million during the minimum contracted period. Recall that Euroseas installed energy saving devices on the M/V Synergy Busan during the ship’s drydock last year which likely factored into the higher charter rate. The new time charter improves Euroseas’ remaining 2024 and 2025 charter coverage to 95% and ~50%, respectively.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate Produced On-Site Lifeway Foods (LWAY)/MARKET PERFORM – An Acquisition Proposal from Danone
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.17 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate Produced On-Site Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lithium carbonate production at the pilot plant. Century Lithium recently added a lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility which is part of the company’s Angel Island Mine project. Previously, concentrated lithium solutions from the pilot plant were treated by Saltworks Inc. at their facility in Richmond, British Columbia to produce samples of battery grade lithium carbonate. Century Lithium is now able to do this at the pilot plant and demonstrate it has an end-to-end process to produce lithium carbonate. The pilot plant utilizes the Company’s patent-pending process for chloride leaching combined with direct lithium extraction (DLE).
Assay results. Century Lithium recently released assay results from the first lithium carbonate produced at the lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility. Assays received for the initial five individual lots of lithium carbonate produced indicated purity of the lithium carbonate ranging from 98.2% to 99.2%. After addressing a mechanical issue, two additional 40-liter lots of concentrated lithium solution were treated and achieved a battery grade lithium carbonate purity level of 99.5% due to an expected reduction of impurities.
Lifeway Foods (LWAY/$21.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | An Acquisition Proposal from Danone Rating: MARKET PERFORM
The Proposal. In a move long awaited by many investors, yesterday after the market closed Danone North America proposed to acquire Lifeway for $25/sh in cash, valuing the entire Company at approximately $380 million. Although the proposal is non-binding, Danone seeks to engage in discussions with the Board with a view to signing a definitive agreement rapidly. LWAY shares reacted positively, trading up nearly 16% to $24.91 on the news.
Why Now? Danone has been a significant Lifeway shareholder since 1999 and currently owns 23.4% of the outstanding equity. According to the letter sent to management, Danone’s 2025-28 Renew strategy has a strong focus on gut health, “which is driving our interest in considering the benefits of a potential combination with Lifeway.” The probiotics in kefir may help support a healthy gut.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, September 23, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Key HPC Hires Announced Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL)/MARKET PERFORM – A Proxy Fight? Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Environment; Raising PT to $14
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.17 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Key HPC Hires Announced Rating: OUTPERFORM
Two New Hires. Last Friday, Bit Digital announced the hiring of its new Head of Revenue, Benjamin Lamson,, and Chief Technology Officer, Tom Sanfilippo. Both of the hires will be critical to Bit Digital’s high-performance computing (HPC) segment. Alongside the two key hires, management also hired additional headcount across sales and AI/ML engineering roles in the segment.
Mr. Lamson’s Background. Mr. Lamson brings experience as the Head of Revenue through his previous position at DigitalOcean, in which he was Head of Paperspace Revenue from July 2023 to August 2024 following DigitalOcean’s acquisition of Paperspace. Prior to that, he was CFO of Paperspace and led the company to a 350% increase in revenue over 18 months.
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL/$3.79) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Proxy Fight? Rating: MARKET PERFORM
13D Filing. On Friday after the market closed, the SEC released a 13D filing filed by a group including former Comtech CEOs Michael Porcelain and Fred Kornberg. As part of the filing, the Group noted that on September 13th Mr. Porcelain delivered a letter to Comtech nominating a slate of eight highly qualified director candidates for election to the Board at Comtech’s 2024 annual meeting of stockholders, generally held in mid-December. The Group has engaged, and intends to continue to engage, in discussions with management and the Board of Comtech, as well as Comtech stockholders and others about the Company.
Details. According to the 13D, in addition to Mr. Porcelain and Mr. Kornberg, the group includes Oleg Timoshenko, founder of UHP Networks, and Jay Whitehurst, former President of Comtech’s Trusted Location product line. In aggregate, the Group reported ownership of 2,179,897 CMTL shares, or about 7.6% of the outstanding.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$10.45 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Strong Environment; Raising PT to $14 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Raising PT. We are raising our price target to $14 from a prior $11 and maintaining our Outperform rating on GLDD shares. We believe the strong operating environment-as evidenced by the new awards announced Friday-will continue, providing upside to operating results, in our view. At our new PT, GLDD shares would trade at 1.7x projected 2024 revenue and 9.8x adjusted EBITDA, compared to a peer group which trades at 1.5x and 11.4x, respectively.
New Awards. On Friday, the DOD announced Great Lakes had been awarded just under $300 million of new business, including a $219 million award for the Sabine-Neches Waterway Channel Improvement Project. The new awards will be additive to backlog, are higher margin work, and highlight not only the amount of work available but Great Lakes’ ability to win such available work.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 19, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock Inc. (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – Comstock Fuels Executes its First International License Agreement
Comstock Inc. (LODE/$0.39 | Price Target: $2.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Comstock Fuels Executes its First International License Agreement Rating: OUTPERFORM
International license agreement. Comstock Fuels executed a non-binding term sheet to grant SACL Pte. Limited, a Singapore-based renewable fuel project developer, an exclusive marketing agreement for Comstock Fuels’ advanced lignocellulosic biomass refining processes in Australia and New Zealand. The term sheet includes a master non-exclusive intellectual property license for the sole purpose of developing, financing, constructing, and managing renewable fuels production facilities. SACL has identified initial sites for the construction of three refineries in Australia.
Terms of the agreement. Comstock Fuels will contribute site specific technology rights in exchange for a 20% equity stake in each refinery. Comstock will provide each producer with engineering support in exchange for 3% of each facilities’ capital and construction costs, increasing to 6% at and above a capacity of 250,000 metric tons per year (MTPY), including an upfront payment of $2.5 million payable upon execution of a site license agreement. Comstock Fuels will earn a royalty fee equal to 3% of the total sales of licensed products by each facility, increasing to 6% at and above a capacity of 250,000 metric tons per year.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – A New Opportunity
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.778) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A New Opportunity Rating: MARKET PERFORM
New Funding. MustGrow announced yesterday that the Company is receiving funding from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to investigate its mustard-derived ingredient. The ingredient could potentially be used in human and animal health and food applications. The funding amount was not disclosed. The Company will continue to focus on its core business outside of the program, with the anticipation of more state approvals for TerraSante, in our view.
The Program. Under the program, the Company and AAFC will look at bioactive components in mustard seed and assess yellow mustard extracts for potential antibiotic and gut health applications in both humans and animals. They will also test the selected bioactive components for antifungal and antibacterial activities against food spoilage microbes and disease pathogens and for use as ingredients in functional foods and nutraceuticals for improved immunity and gut health in both humans and animals.
Raising Price Target. With KTOS shares hitting our prior $22 price target, we are raising our price target to $26. We are maintaining our Outperform rating on the shares. We view the recent awards and demonstrations as further confirmation of the Kratos strategy in providing leading edge disruptive technology products and systems.
CR Concern. Although we remain confident in the long-term success of the Company, the potential for another extended Continuing Resolution remains a concern in the near-term. The Federal government’s fiscal year ends September 30th and we do not expect a 2025 budget to be passed before then. The concern is for an extended CR, like we had in fiscal 2024, which pushes new awards and contracts to the right.
PDS Biotechnology (PDSB/$3.06 | Price Target: $17) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 PDS Presents Phase 2 Data Update At ESMO Conference Rating: OUTPERFORM
Additional Clinical Details Presented At ESMO Conference. PDS Biotech presented an update to its Phase 2 VERSATILE-002 trial at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), adding detail to the data announced in June 2024. We see these Phase 2 data as highly encouraging for the Phase 3 VERSATILE-003 trial testing the doublet combination and the triplet combination (Versamune HPV with PDS01ADC and Keytruda) against Keytruda alone.
Trial Continues As Patient Survival Continues To Surpass Other Treatments. The VERSATILE-002 enrolled 53 patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC). As of the May 17, 2024, analysis date, 27 patients remain alive with some reaching the 3-year survival point. Out of those alive, 10 remain on treatment and 17 are followed for survival.
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$2.34 | Price Target: $3) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Positioning For a Favorable 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fiscal Q2 overachieves expectations. Q2 revenues of $74.2 million were much better than our $68.5 million estimate and supported a “beat” in our adj. EBITDA estimate, a positive $2.4 million versus our adj. EBITDA loss estimate of $1.5 million. The largest portion of the variance was due to timing of wholesale order shipments, which pushed into the second quarter. We estimate that those revenues were roughly $5 million.
Profit margins improved, outlook appears favorable. Gross profit margins increased 80 basis points from year earlier levels, as the company shifts away from price promotions and with a focus on tight cost controls. management guided for operating margins to increase 350 to 450 basis points for the full year, bolstered by a shift away from discounting, higher pricing, and lower freight costs.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, September 16, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target Based on Expected Lower Cost of Capital GDEV Inc (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Revising Estimates Upward; Raising Price Target SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Taking Steps for the Long Term
FreightCar America (RAIL/$10.33 | Price Target: $12) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Raising Price Target Based on Expected Lower Cost of Capital Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pure play manufacturer. FreightCar America, Inc. is a diversified manufacturer of railroad cars and rail car components. The company designs and manufactures a broad variety of railroad car types for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America. The company recently reported strong second-quarter financial results and appears poised for greater scale and margin expansion as it increases its market share and expands its product suite.
Expected redemption of high-cost preferred stock. We have assumed the company could redeem its high-cost preferred shares using a private credit term loan. For the sake of simplicity, we have assumed this occurs just prior to 2025. Based on the company’s strong cash flow profile and outlook, we estimate the rate on a $100 million private credit term loan could approximate the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) plus 600 basis points or 11.33%. We note that the amount of the term loan and the interest rate could vary from our estimates. If the loan amount or interest rate is lower, interest expense could be lower.
Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $105.8 million, which was in line with our $105.0 million estimate. Due to lower than expected Selling & Marketing Expenses and efficiency initiatives, adj. EBITDA was $16.2 million, far better than our $0.9 million estimate. Selling & Marketing expenses were roughly $11 million lower than expected, accounting for the largest portion of the sizable “beat”.PC picking up Steam. Notably, management highlighted the launch of Pixel Gun 3D PC Edition to the Steam platform, the largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming. The launch of Pixel Gun 3D on Steam and a solid quarter for Hero Wars: Dominion Era led to PC revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, up from 38% in the prior year period. The addition of Steam is viewed favorably given that PC players tend to spend more money and time playing than mobile users.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.02 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Taking Steps for the Long Term Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong fiscal Q4. SelectQuote’s fiscal Q4 revenue of $307.2 million and adj. EBITDA of $14.4 million exceeded our estimates of $271.3 million and a loss of $2.2 million, respectively. In our view, the strong performance demonstrated the power of the company’s synergistic business model, which serves consumers’ needs both for insurance policies and pharmacy services.
Pharmacy momentum. Total revenue grew an impressive 38% over the prior year period, driven largely by the company’s Healthcare Services segment, which is comprised primarily of SelectRx (home-direct pharmacy business). Healthcare Services revenue was up roughly 75%, year-over-year with SelectRx membership growing to approximately 82,000, up from roughly 75,000 at the end of fiscal Q3.
Q4 results. Q4 revenues exceeded our expectations, $283.9 million (up a strong 18.6% y-o-y) versus our $270.0 million estimate, driven by strong 6.9% growth in same store revenues. Adj. EBITDA was $83.4 million, roughly in line with our $86.5 million estimate.
Resilient against economic headwinds. Management indicated that its business caters to a high end consumer that appears to be resilient to the economy. It plans to roll out high end food items and focus on its event business as a key revenue growth driver in fiscal 2025. Event business is currently $275 million and is expected to exceed $300 million in fiscal 2025.
MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA/$3.13 | Price Target: $14) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 New THIO Data Shows Improved Survival and Meets Trial Goals Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Data Announced For Additional Patients. MAIA announced new interim data from its Phase 2 THIO-101 open-label trial testing the combination of THIO and Libtayo in non-small cell lung cancer. The new data shows that as of August 1, 2024, 16 patients had passed the 12-month survival point with reported median survival of 10.2 months. This greatly exceeds published data for comparable patients with survival of 5.8 months.
THIO-101 Treated Third-Line Patients With Advanced Disease. Patients in the trial had advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and were treated with the combination of THIO and cemiplimab (Libtayo, an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor from Regeneron) after failing 2 or more standard-of-care therapy regimens. Patients received 3-week cycles of THIO 60 mg administered on days 1, 2 and 3 (180 mg total), rest on day 4, and cemiplimab 350mg administered on day 5. Patients on treatment for 12-months have received up to 21 cycles.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.7) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Onto the East Coast Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Another Approval. Following the approval from the state of Arizona late last month, MustGrow announced receipt from the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) for the registration approval of its TerraSante product. Florida now becomes the sixth state to approve the Company’s product alongside Arizona, Idaho, California, Oregon, and Washington.
Florida Market. The state consists of around 47,300 farms which utilized 9.7 million acres, 5,000 farms of which had sales exceeding $100,000 according to the FDACS. Florida ranked first in 2022 in value of the production of bell peppers, Valencia oranges, grapefruit, sugarcane, fresh market tomatoes, and watermelons. The average farm size in the state is around 205 acres. The state adds plenty of opportunity to MustGrow’s expanding pipeline and we expect more states to be added in the future.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock Inc. (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – End to End Solar Panel Recycling Solutions Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Shareholders Approve Restructuring Transaction with Agnico Eagle V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – American Industrial Partners Lightens Its Holdings
Comstock Inc. (LODE/$0.27 | Price Target: $2.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 End to End Solar Panel Recycling Solutions Rating: OUTPERFORM
Deinstallation services. In direct response to customer needs, Comstock Metals now provides and manages deinstallation services for customers. Comstock Metals receives a tipping fee for the receipt and storage of end-of-life solar panels and now may receive additional fees for decommissioning and transporting the panels in addition to revenue earned from the recovery of high value minerals and metals from the recycled panels. The company has completed several deinstallations with several others being negotiated or under bid.
Well positioned to grow the customer base. We think the expansion of the company’s product suite to include decommissioning services better positions the company to more rapidly win new business from a broader range of customers. Comstock Metals coordinates and enables the decommissioning of the end-of-life panels from their customer facilities and coordinates the transportation of these panels to Comstock’s facility in Silver Springs where the materials will be processed and recycled. Comstock is engaged with various, nationally recognized commercial customers to decommission, transport, and process end-of-life solar panels installed at their facilities.
Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF/$0.06 | Price Target: $0.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Shareholders Approve Restructuring Transaction with Agnico Eagle Rating: OUTPERFORM
Shareholder meeting. Maple Gold shareholders overwhelmingly approved all proposed resolutions at the annual general meeting on September 9. This included minority shareholder approval of the restructuring transaction between Maple and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. The company expects to close the restructuring transaction within days and expects to announce plans for a fully financed Fall/Winter drilling program shortly. For more information about the restructuring agreement, please refer to our research note dated June 25th.
Control of the property package. Upon closure of the restructuring agreement, Maple gains 100% control of an established gold mineral resource of over three million ounces at Douay, a past-producing high-grade gold mining complex at Joutel, and a fertile yet underexplored 400 square kilometer land package straddling one of the three major regional deformation zones in the Abitibi greenstone belt. Maple will pursue a clear path to advance the Douay and Joutel projects without near-term dilution risk at the project level.
V2X (VVX/$48.7 | Price Target: $62) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | American Industrial Partners Lightens Its Holdings Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Sale. Last week, V2X announced an offering of 2 million shares, with an additional 300,000 shares potentially sold, at $48/sh by American Industrial Partners. AIP will continue to beneficially own approximately 54.4% of the outstanding common stock, or 16,967,286 shares (or approximately 53.4% if the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional shares in full). Noble Capital was a co-manager of the offering. V2X did not receive any proceeds from the share sale.
Expected. AIP received its shares in the Vectrus/Vertex merger, and we had expected AIP eventually to begin to sell off its stake. V2X shares reacted negatively to the announcement, declining from the $54 level prior to the announcement to the current $49 level. We believe the sell-off to be unwarranted given V2X’s strong operating performance and AIP’s still substantial holdings in V2X shares.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 6, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – August Production Bowlero (BOWL)/OUTPERFORM – Sets Its Mark On M&A Targets
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.67 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | August Production Rating: OUTPERFORM
AI Services. Bit Digital had 256 servers actively generating revenue from its initial Bit Digital AI contract, as of August 31, 2024. The Company earned approximately $4.3 million of unaudited revenue from this contract during the month of August 2024. A service credit of $579,000 related to the downtime experienced during an equipment upgrade was issued to the client in August for the period of February to June 2024.
Bitcoin Mining. The Company produced 53.4 bitcoin during the month, down 11.7% when compared to the prior month. The active hash rate was 2.43 EH/s as of the end of August, compared to 2.46 EH/s at the end of July. As we have noted previously, management continues to monitor the mining environment post halving, with additional investment into this business dependent upon the returns achievable.
Bowlero (BOWL/$10.79 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Sets Its Mark On M&A Targets Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reports solid Q4 results. Q4 revenues exceeded our expectations, $283.9 million (up a strong 18.6% y-o-y) versus our $270.0 million estimate, driven by strong 6.9% growth in same store revenues. Adj. EBITDA was $83.4 million, roughly in line with our $86.5 million estimate. Figure #1 Q4 Results illustrates our estimates versus reported results.
Resilient against economic headwinds. Management indicated that its business caters to a high end consumer that appears to be resilient to the economy. It plans to roll out high end food items and focus on its event business as a key revenue growth driver in fiscal 2025. Event business is currently $275 million and is expected to exceed $300 million in fiscal 2025.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 5, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Progress on Key Priorities GDEV Inc (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Picking Up Steam
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.43 | Price Target: $0.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Progress on Key Priorities Rating: OUTPERFORM
Key priorities for 2024 and 2025. Aurania appears to be making significant progress on key 2024 and 2025 priorities that were highlighted by Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and Director, during the company’s annual general meeting in June. These include: 1) exploration at the Lost Cities project in Ecuador, 2) advancing the company’s application for an exploration license in the Brittany Peninsula of northwestern France, 3) advancing joint venture and strategic partnership discussions, and 4) expanding community access agreements and community projects in Ecuador.
Exploration program. While Aurania’s exploration program is flexible, the company intends to complete an induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey this year at the Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target followed by a drill program that will likely commence in the first quarter of 2025. An Anaconda mapping program has been completed in the southern part of Aurania’s Awacha porphyry copper target area and exploration teams are wrapping up a mapping program in the northern portion of the property with the goal of preparing it for drilling in the future. Fieldwork is also expected to continue at Crunchy Hill during the third quarter.
Overachieves expectations. Second quarter revenues of $105.8 million was in line with our $105.0 million estimate. Due to lower than expected Selling & Marketing Expenses and efficiency initiatives, adj. EBITDA was $16.2 million, far better than our $0.9 million estimate, illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Selling & Marketing expenses were roughly $11 million lower than expected, accounting for the largest portion of the sizable “beat”.
PC picking up Steam. Notably, management highlighted the launch of Pixel Gun 3D PC Edition to the Steam platform, the largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming. The launch of Pixel Gun 3D on Steam and a solid quarter for Hero Wars: Dominion Era led to PC revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, up from 38% in the prior year period. The addition of Steam is viewed favorably given that PC players tend to spend more money and time playing than mobile users.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Getting Close to Producing Battery Grade Lithium On-Site Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – NDA Submission Keeps OLC Approval On Expected Timeline
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.2 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Getting Close to Producing Battery Grade Lithium On-Site Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lithium carbonate production at the pilot plant. Century Lithium successfully added a lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility which is part of the company’s Angel Island Mine project. Previously, concentrated lithium solutions from the pilot plant were treated by Saltworks Inc. at their facility in Richmond, British Columbia to produce samples of battery grade lithium carbonate. Century Lithium is now able to do this at the pilot plant and demonstrate it has an end-to-end process to produce lithium carbonate.
Assay results. Century Lithium released assay results from the first lithium carbonate produced at the newly commissioned lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility. Assays received for the initial five individual lots of lithium carbonate produced indicated purity of the lithium carbonate ranging from 98.2% to 99.2%. While lithium carbonate greater than 99.5% purity is typically considered battery grade, the company has identified steps to improve the purity level.
Unicycive Announced Submission Of The OLC Application For Approval. Unicycive has announced that its New Drug Application (NDA) for its phosphate binder OLC (oxylanthanum carbonate) has been submitted to the FDA. This is consistent with our expectations after data from the last clinical study showing efficacy in treating high phosphate levels in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients on dialysis. We continue to anticipate product approval in 2Q25.
We Believe Dosing and Efficacy Could Make OLC The Leading Phosphate Binding Drug. OLC was developed with proprietary nanoparticle technology to reduce the daily number of pills to just one three times a day for a full dose. This gives an advantage over other phosphate binders, which require 9 to 12 pills each day. Its formulation is based on lanthanum, the active entity in the approved drug Fosrenol. We expect this to be a strong advantage for OLC.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS)/OUTPERFORM – Why This Company Should Be On Your Radar Screen Lifeway Foods (LWAY)/OUTPERFORM – Positive Momentum for Shares, Increasing Price Target MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Gearing Up for Sales NN Inc (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Some Additional Flexibility
1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS/$8.03 | Price Target: $14) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Why This Company Should Be On Your Radar Screen Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $360.9 million, which was modestly below our estimate of $373.5 million by 3.4%. Additionally, Adj. EBITDA loss in the quarter of $8.8 million was below our estimate of negative $5.8 million. While the results were softer than expected, there were some bright spots. Notably, Q4 gross profit margin increased 130 basis points from the prior year period, which was largely attributed to lower freight and commodity costs, as well as cost saving initiatives. Increasing revenue investments. Management indicated that it plans to step up marketing, post the upcoming elections, and will introduce new products at price points that may help to offset the lackluster sales particularly for its everyday gifting products. There has been a bifurcation of sales for its products that target its high end consumer and that for consumers that are price sensitive.
Lifeway Foods (LWAY/$19.18 | Price Target: $25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Positive Momentum for Shares, Increasing Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increasing Price Target. Shares of LWAY have risen since the Company had record-breaking operating results in the second quarter. The increase in the share price, of around 15% from the announcement of second quarter results, along with the positive operating momentum of the Company pushes our target price from a previous $20 to $25.
Rise in Price. Since the second quarter results on August 13th, shares of LWAY have risen to $19.18 as of Friday’s close from $16.66. The average volume per day over the course of this time (14 days) was approximately 255,571 shares as opposed to last quarter’s 164,046. Although not all volume is positive, the positive trend indicates more investor interest in Lifeway’s story and being encouraged with the Company’s performance.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.69) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Gearing Up for Sales Rating: MARKET PERFORM
2Q Results. MustGrow had no revenue during the quarter. We estimated revenue of CAD$1,000. Net loss was CAD$960,209, or a loss of $0.02/sh, compared to a loss of CAD$1.2 million last year, or a loss of $0.02/sh. We estimated a net loss of $1.1 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh.
But Revenue Underway. Revenue for MustGrow’s TerraSante product is now coming in. We believe this initial revenue recognition to be an important milestone for the Company, with the product now in farmers’ hands. Management noted that sales are performing as expected, with farmers having small-scale testing of TerraSante to understand the product.
NN Inc (NNBR/$3.94 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Some Additional Flexibility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Flexibility. On Friday, NN filed an 8-K disclosing some amendments to its term loan and ABL agreements. In essence, the amendments to each will provide the Company with additional financial flexibility, in our view. While there does not appear to be any change in interest rates, a reduction in rates is a long-term goal of management.
Term Loan. The amendment raises the amount of the Company’s allowable indebtedness – incurred in connection with the purchase or lease of fixed assets – from $20 million to $40 million, provided that no more than $26.95 million is used with respect to any sale and leaseback transaction. In addition, the amendment requires the Company to use the net cash proceeds obtained in connection with any future sale and leaseback transactions to prepay any outstanding principal indebtedness under the term loan.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 30, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS)/OUTPERFORM – Positioning To Offset Economic Headwinds
1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS/$7.91 | Price Target: $14) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Positioning To Offset Economic Headwinds Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $360.9 million, which was modestly below our estimate of $373.5 million by 3.4%. Additionally, Adj. EBITDA loss in the quarter of $8.8 million was below our estimate of negative $5.8 million. Illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. While the results were softer than expected, there were some bright spots. Notably, Q4 gross profit margin increased 130 basis points from the prior year period, which was largely attributed to lower freight and commodity costs, as well as cost saving initiatives.
Stepping up revenue investments. Management indicated that it plans to step up marketing, post the upcoming elections, and will introduce new products at price points that may help to offset the lackluster sales particularly for its everyday gifting products. There has been a bifurcation of sales for its products that target its high end consumer and that for consumers that are price sensitive.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
GDEV Inc (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Shedding Its SPAC Image
GDEV Inc (GDEV/$2.8501 | Price Target: $60) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Shedding Its SPAC Image Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse split. On August 21, the company announced a one for ten reverse stock split on its ordinary shares. Notably, the reverse split will be effective following the market close on August 28, and will be adjusted for the split when trading opens on August 29. We view the move favorably as the company sheds its SPAC image.
Positive implications. Management highlighted that the reverse split could improve the marketability and attractiveness of its shares, as an investment grade company that it is. We believe the higher share price could improve investor perception, liquidity and marketability of the GDEV shares and open the company to more institutional interest, with the shares trading above single digit price points.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Positive Momentum Driven by Potential for Market Share Gains and Margin Expansion Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Additional Information on New Awards
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.58 | Price Target: $7.7) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Positive Momentum Driven by Potential for Market Share Gains and Margin Expansion Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pure play manufacturer. FreightCar America, Inc. is a diversified manufacturer of railroad cars and rail car components. The company designs and manufactures a broad variety of railroad car types for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America. The company recently reported strong second-quarter financial results and appears poised for greater scale and margin expansion as it increases its market share and expands its product suite.
Updating estimates. While our 2024 and 2025 earnings per share estimates are unchanged at $0.25 and $0.47, respectively, we have increased our EBITDA estimates to $38.8 million and $46.7 million from $38.6 million and $46.0 million. We have assumed modestly higher sales. Importantly, we have increased our forward estimates beginning in 2026 to better reflect the company’s recent order for 1,000 tank car conversions and entry into the new tank car market beginning in 2028 which is expected to have a positive impact on gross margin.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$9.84 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Additional Information on New Awards Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Awards. Yesterday, Great Lakes issued a press release revealing receipt of $256.2 million of dredging awards, including the $120 million of awards we highlighted last week. The six awards the Company noted included two capital projects, three coastal protection, and one maintenance award.
Pipeline Over $1 Billion. In addition to the noted awarded projects, Great Lakes has approximately $318 million in low bids and options pending award, according to the release, which includes two jobs on which the Company was low bidder on this month. This brings Great Lakes’ potential total pipeline of work to over $1.2 billion.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 23, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Another State Added
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.59) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Another State Added Rating: MARKET PERFORM
A New State. On the heels of Idaho’s approval of TerraSante earlier in the month, MustGrow announced receipt from the Arizona Department of Agriculture for the registration approval of its TerraSante product. The approval will give MustGrow the ability to commence sales within the state. Arizona now joins a list that includes four other states in the aforementioned Idaho, Oregon, California, and Washington State.
Synergy with California. Arizona’s approval is key with the Company’s commercialization strategy with BioAg Product Strategies. In the winter months, agriculture companies in California use the winter climate in Arizona for its winter farming production. We believe that the Company can ‘double-dip’ in potential sales to farming companies looking to use MustGrow’s products for both California and Arizona, providing increased revenue.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Focused On Computing Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – More New Business Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations; Increasing Estimates NN Inc (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Some Insider Buying
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.61 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Focused On Computing Rating: OUTPERFORM
HPC Focus. Management is placing greater emphasis on the HPC segment given the near-term potential of the business, its higher margin profile, and growing pipeline of opportunity. Management continues to believe the business could obtain a $100 million annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2024.
Realization of Pipeline. The Company is adding staff in its HPC segment, including a head of sales, to realize more of the Company’s growing pipeline in the segment. It has already come to fruition with the Boosteroid agreement announcement and management noted that other potential clients are not far behind. We expect the addition of more salespeople in the near term and won’t be surprised to see more agreement announcements sooner rather than later.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$8.78 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | More New Business Rating: OUTPERFORM
Recent DOD Awards. Great Lakes has been awarded over $120 million in two new contracts since August 9th, according to the Department of Defense daily contract release. We believe the additional awards highlight the amount of opportunity available to Great Lakes.
Mobile Harbor. Yesterday, Great Lakes was awarded a $65.9 million firm-fixed-price contract to deepen and widen Mobile Harbor, with an estimated completion date of April 27, 2025. Fiscal 2020 civil construction funds and fiscal 2024 civil operation and maintenance funds in the amount of $65.9 million were obligated at the time of the award. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile, Alabama, is the contracting activity.
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.27 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations; Increasing Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. Hemisphere Energy reported second-quarter net income of C$10.4 million or C$0.10 per share compared to $5.8 million or $0.06 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast net income of C$9.5 million or C$0.09 per share. Year-over-year, revenue rose 52.2% to C$28.9 million driven by an increase in average daily production to 3,628 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) compared to 2,883 during the prior year quarter and our estimate of 3,500. The average sales price per BOE increased to C$87.65 compared to C$72.48 in the second quarter of 2023. Adjusted funds flow from operations increased to C$13.6 million compared to C$8.1 million during the prior year period.
Updating estimates. We increased our 2024 adjusted funds flow (AFF) and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to C$45.4 million and C$0.35, respectively, from C$44.3 million and C$0.34. Our revisions are driven by the better than expected second quarter financial results. Our third and fourth quarter production estimates of 3,600 and 3,775 BOE/d are unchanged. We have increased our 2025 production estimate to 3,625 BOE/d from 3,504 and raised our AFF and EPS estimates to C$42.6 million and C$0.32, respectively, from C$41.1 million and C$0.30.
NN Inc (NNBR/$3.62 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Some Insider Buying Rating: OUTPERFORM
Insider Buying. We are always interested to see insider buying, especially around current trading levels for the stock. Last week, three NN directors acquired a total of 32,550 NNBR shares at average prices in the $3.41 to $3.64 range. Such concentrated open market purchases are a positive, in our view.
Insider 1. First up, on August 14th Director Joao Faria disclosed the purchase of 20,000 NNBR shares at an average cost of $3.41 per share. Mr. Faria now owns 277,843 NNBR shares. Prior to last week, Mr. Faria’s most recent open market purchase was back in May 2023 when he acquired 30,000 NNBR shares at an average cost of $1.74.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at the Second Quarter
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.99 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | First Look at the Second Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Results. Revenue for the quarter totaled $29.0 million, a 220% increase from last year of $9.0 million due to the inclusion of the HPC business. We estimated revenue of $24.9 million. Driven by an $11.5 million unrealized loss on digital assets, adjusted EBITDA was a negative $3.8 million from a positive $1.9 million last year. Net loss for the quarter was $12.0 million, or $0.09/sh, from a loss of $2.4 million, or $0.03/sh, the prior year.
A Temporary Setback. The Company’s anchor HPC client is temporarily delaying its purchase order to potentially upgrade the servers to have newer generation Nvidia GPUs. The contract may be amended to provide for the newer GPUs. We believe the delay to only be temporary as Nvidia’s new Blackwell architecture is expected to be released later in the year or in early 2025.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 19, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target To $10 Based On Program Progress
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$7.06 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Raising Price Target To $10 Based On Program Progress Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Has Made Substantial Clinical and Manufacturing Process. We are raising our Price Target on GEOX to $10 based on the recent progress that has driven the stock through our previous $6 target. The company recently announced a DARPA grant for CM04S1 and its Phase 2 plans for Gedeptin in HNSCC. Last week, Mpox news highlighted recent advances in GeoVax’s manufacturing platform and its MVA-based vaccine for smallpox and Mpox.
Mpox News Draws Attention To GeoVax’s MVA Manufacturing Platform. On August 14, WHO declared Mpox to be a “public health emergency of international concern”, or PHEIC, due to a new type of Mpox (formerly monkeypox) spreading in West Africa. The new type is more infectious and more fatal than the type seen 2022. The previous virus spread through sexual contact (bodily fluids), while the current strain has also spread to health care workers through contact with patients’ clothing and bedding.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 16, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Conduent Inc (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Nearing the Trough, Looking Towards the Future InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates to Reflect Revised Guidance QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Revenue Remains Lackluster Traws Pharma (TRAW)/OUTPERFORM – Traws Reports 2Q24 and Gives Post-Acquisition Update Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Near Term Moving Parts, But 2025 Revenue Trends Appear Favorable
Conduent Inc (CNDT/$3.29 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Nearing the Trough, Looking Towards the Future Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 beat. The company delivered solid Q2 with revenue of $828 million, slightly better than our forecast of $812 million, and adj. EBITDA of $35 million, 84% better than our estimate of $19 million. Importantly, we believe the company is nearing the trough of its operating results as its divestiture activity appears to be winding down.
Favorable trends emerging. Importantly, the Commercial segment, the company’s largest by revenue, appears to be trending positively. Management highlighted that new business signings rebounded in Q2. Additionally, the Transportation segment is positioned for sequential revenue growth in the back half of the year, buoyed by a large contract in Australia.
Second quarter financial results. InPlay Oil reported second quarter net income of C$5.4 million or C$0.06 per compared to C$4.3 million or C$0.05 per during the prior year period. We had forecast net income of C$3.6 million or C$0.04 per share. Average quarterly production increased 2.2% to 8,657 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 8,474 in the second quarter of 2023.
Corporate guidance. InPlay trimmed its 2024 production guidance to a range of 8,700 to 9,000 boe/d from 9,000 to 9,500, and lowered expectations for crude oil prices. Lower production reflects foregone production from a Glauconite well that was drilled but experienced casing failure, downtime, and a decision to bring wells on later in the year. Expense guidance is mostly unchanged on a dollar per barrel of oil equivalent basis. Adjusted funds flow is expected to be in the range of C$80 million to C$85 million compared to prior guidance of C$90 million to C$97 million.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.19 | Price Target: $0.3) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Revenue Remains Lackluster Rating: OUTPERFORM
Weak Q2 Results. The company reported revenue of $4.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million, lighter than our estimates of $5.0 million and $0.9 million, respectively. Figure #1 Q2 Variance highlights the company’s results against our expectations. Revenues stayed flat from the first quarter and decreased by 1.0% from the year earlier Q2 2023.
Lackluster revenue outlook. Management indicated the lackluster revenue trends appear to be continuing into the third quarter in spite of a building pipeline of business. We believe that the company is being buffeted by clients switching to cheaper data alternatives (although this is low margin business) and lower volumes.
Operations Were Integrated During The Second Quarter. Traws Reported a 2Q24 loss of $123.1 million or $(4.87) per share, including a $117.5 million charge for in-process research and development related to the acquisition of Transfynydd. Excluding the charge, net loss would have been around $5.7 million or about $(0.22) per share. The company ended the quarter with $16.4 million in cash, which we expect to fund operations and clinical milestone announcements through the end of 2024.
Influenza Program Is In Phase 1.TRX100 (tivoxavir marboxil) is a cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor for influenza. Inhibition of this enzyme in the influenza virus inhibits viral replication of both influenza A and B strains. Early dosing studies have shown safety and tolerability, with data to support a single oral dose for therapeutic or prophylactic use. A Phase 1 dose single-dose escalation study is currently in progress.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.6801 | Price Target: $2) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Near Term Moving Parts, But 2025 Revenue Trends Appear Favorable Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. Total company revenues of $2.95 million was in line with our $3.0 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA, which was essentially flat at a loss of $40,000, was in line with our loss estimate of $44,000. Q2 reflected sequential quarterly improvement from the Q1 adj. EBITDA loss of $1.6 million.
A Lot of moving parts. We anticipate some noise in Q3 from the absence of Lori Goldstein’s brand. But, we expect a lift in Q4 revenue from holiday spending, particularly in Jewelry. Furthermore, the company has a lot in the pipeline; a launch of a food and kitchen products brand in Q1, expansion of Christie Brinkley’s brand, TWRHLL, including a possible launch into two big box retailers, and contributions from Halston, slated for Spring of 2025.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 15, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q24 Reported With Focus On Influenza QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Revenue Remains Lackluster Schwazze (SHWZ)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Notes and Updated Model SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Setting the Table for Future Revenue Growth Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Beyond The Noise Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q24 Reported With Guidance For NDA Submission By End Of August Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Its Transformation Appears To Be Working
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.7 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q24 Reported With Focus On Influenza Rating: OUTPERFORM
Clinical Programs Reported Strong Progress. Cocrystal reported a 2Q24 loss of $5.3 million or $(0.54) per share, with $18.1 million in cash on June 20, 2024. The Phase 2a human challenge study testing the influenza vaccine CC-42344 is on schedule to report results later in 2025. During the quarter, preclinical testing for CC-42344 showed efficacy against the avian influenza A (H5N1), a new strain that has infected dairy cattle and has jumped to humans. Separately, CDI-988 reached a Phase 1 clinical milestone and is expected to report full top-line results for coronavirus and norovirus in late 2024/early 2025.
CC-42344 Moves Forward. CC-42344 is a vaccine for influenza that works through inhibition of PB2, a viral enzyme needed for early steps in the reproduction cycle of the influenza virus. CC-42344 has completed enrollment in a Phase 2a study testing the vaccine in human volunteers in the UK. Data is expected later in 2024, to be followed by an IND for clinical studies in the US. An inhaled version is currently in toxicology studies, with Phase 1 studies for prophylactic and post-exposure therapeutic use planned for 2025.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.18 | Price Target: $0.4) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Revenue Remains Lackluster Rating: OUTPERFORM
Weak Q2 Results. The company reported revenue of $4.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million, lighter than our estimates of $5.0 million and $0.9 million, respectively. Figure #1 Q2 Variance highlights the company’s results against our expectations. Revenues stayed flat from the first quarter and decreased by 6.0% from the year earlier Q2 2023.
Slow start to the year. Management indicated following its first quarter results that client churn at the tail end of 2023 contributed to the slow start in 2024. As of the first quarter, the company anticipated a strong finish to the year as its pipeline was expected to improve. We expect more details on the second half following its investor call at 2pm ET, call number is 800.274.8461.
Schwazze (SHWZ/$0.2 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Post Call Notes and Updated Model Rating: OUTPERFORM
Audit. Schwazze and its auditor are working diligently to complete the necessary re-audit of the 2023 financials. While management did not provide a timetable, we believe the process will be completed in the near-term. No material misstatements have been uncovered to date. Once audited financials are filed, we expect the Company to apply for re-listing of its shares.
Re-Scheduling. We continue to expect re-scheduling to occur in the near-term, which will have a positive impact on the entire industry. Schwazze continues to believe the elimination of 280e taxes will have a significant impact on cash flows for the Company. The Company also will seek to refile past tax returns to capture prior excess taxes paid under 280e.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Setting the Table for Future Revenue Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Execution on target. The company reported a solid quarter, in line with our revenue estimate and better than our adj. EBITDA loss estimate. Q2 revenue was $21.4 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $22.0 million, while an adj. EBITDA loss of $2.1 million was better than our forecast of a loss of $4.0 million. In our view, the sequential revenue growth, coupled with a diminishing cash burn should serve as a favorable indicator of the company’s ability to execute its growth strategy, while targeting a swing towards profitability in 2025.
Expanding distribution channels. Recently, the company announced that its products would become available at Home Depot. Products are already live on Home Depot’s website and various products are expected to arrive in a select number of stores in the coming months. We view this as a significant expansion that furthers the company’s ability to reach both the retail and professional channels at scale. As such, we believe the inclusion of SKYX products at Home Depot could accelerate revenue growth in both customer verticals.
Snail (SNAL/$0.76 | Price Target: $6) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Looking Beyond The Noise Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $21.6 million, and adj. EBITDA of $3.1 million, both of which were lower than our forecasts of $27.8 million and $7.4 million, respectively. In our view, there were multiple factors contributing to the shortfall, such as deferred revenue in the quarter, as well as lower than expected revenue from ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) on Microsoft Game Pass.
Deferred revenue. Notably, deferred revenue is largely related to the five DLC packages included in the sale of ASA, of which four have not been released yet. Furthermore, as DLC packages included in ASA are released, the company will defer less revenue from future ASA sales. In our view, reducing deferred revenue will provide investors with a clearer picture of company operating results.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.32 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q24 Reported With Guidance For NDA Submission By End Of August Rating: OUTPERFORM
OLC Data and NDA Dominated 2Q24. Unicycive reported 2Q24 income of $3.0 million or $0.08 per share and a loss of $(0.15) on a fully diluted basis. Loss from operations for 2Q24 was $7.4 million, with a gain of $16.8 million from the change in fair value of warrant conversion. This offsets a charge of $11.8 million in 1Q24, bringing the six-month total for fair value of warrant conversion to $5.0 million. Cash on June 30 was $41.8 million, which we expect to fund operations into 2H25.
Pivotal Study Met Its Endpoints and Showed Patients Reaching Target Levels. As discussed in our Research Note on June 26, Unicycive reported results from its OLC pivotal study met its tolerability and safety endpoints with data that compares favorably with Fosrenol (lanthanum carbonate). Over 90% of the patients were able to lower their serum phosphate to target levels, with 70% reaching target at the lowest dose tested. We believe these results could make OLC highly competitive in the marketplace.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.7 | Price Target: $2.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Its Transformation Appears To Be Working Rating: OUTPERFORM
In line Q2. Total company revenues of $2.95 million was in line with our $3.0 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA, which was essentially flat at a loss of $40,000 was in line with our loss estimate of $44,000. See Figure #1 Q2 Results for highlights. Q2 reflected sequential quarterly improvement from the Q1 adj. EBITDA loss of $1.6 million.
Behind the numbers. In our view, the recent results reflect the company’s progress toward its high margin licensing model. But, the quarter also reflected the revenue from Lori Goldstein, which was sold on June 30. As such, Q3 will reflect the absence of revenue from that brand. Notably, the company’s developing brands, Christie Brinkley and C. Wonder, appear to be performing well and may offset a large portion of the anticipate revenue impact.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Rolling Out the Kiosks FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 2Q Operational and Financial Results; Increasing Estimates Harte Hanks (HHS)/OUTPERFORM – A Deeper Dive Into The Latest Quarter; Stock Over Reacts Lifeway Foods (LWAY)/OUTPERFORM – Setting Another Record PDS Biotechnology (PDSB)/OUTPERFORM – PDS 2Q24 Financial Results Recap A Productive Quarter Schwazze (SHWZ)/OUTPERFORM – A First Look into 2Q24 Results Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – First Look At Q2 Results
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$1.57 | Price Target: $7) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Rolling Out the Kiosks Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 beats expectations. The Company reported Q2 revenue of $163.1 million, beating our estimate of $147.6 million by 10.5%, and adj. EBITDA of $12.7 million, 37.1% above our estimate of $9.2 million. While revenue and adj. EBITDA were down 17.4% and 36.1% from the prior year period, respectively, we view 2024 as a transitional year and the Q2 results favorably.
Kiosk deployment ahead of schedule. Importantly, the company had 8,068 kiosks deployed at the end of Q2, surpassing its goal of having 8,000 kiosks deployed by year end. With more than 10,000 total owned kiosks (deployed and warehoused) and a strong pipeline of potential new partners, we are estimating the number of kiosk deployed at year end to be 9,000.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$4.17 | Price Target: $5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Strong 2Q Operational and Financial Results; Increasing Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. FreightCar America generated second quarter adjusted net income to common stockholders of $1.772 million or $0.05 per share compared to $0.424 million or $0.02 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast $1.582 million and $0.05 per share. Revenue and rail car deliveries increased to $147.4 million and 1,159 compared to $88.6 million and 760 during the second quarter of 2023. On a year-over-year basis, adjusted EBITDA increased 50.6% to $12.1 million. While EPS was in line with our estimates, railcar deliveries, revenues and adjusted EBITDA were above our estimates.
Full Year 2024 corporate guidance. Management raised its full year 2024 guidance ranges. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,300 to 4,700, revenue is expected to be in the range of $560 million to $600 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $35 to $39 million. Previously, railcar deliveries were expected to be in the range of 4,000 to 4,400, revenue was expected to be in the range of $520 million to $572 million, and adjusted EBITDA was expected to be in the range of $32 million to $38 million.
Harte Hanks (HHS/$7.29 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Deeper Dive Into The Latest Quarter; Stock Over Reacts Rating: OUTPERFORM
Installing a sales organization. We believe that the management team is focused on positioning the company for a swing toward revenue and cash flow growth. To that end, the company has hired high profile senior management that is transforming it into a sales and customer centric company.
A healthy revenue indicator. Management indicated that its pipeline of business is building and ahead of last year. We believe that the company’s investment into building its sales infrastructure, which began late last year, is likely to show improving revenue trends in the second half 2024.
Lifeway Foods (LWAY/$16.66 | Price Target: $20) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Setting Another Record Rating: OUTPERFORM
Another Record Quarter. Net sales for the second quarter were $49.2 million, a new record for the Company, and marks the 19th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Net sales also were above our estimate of $46.5 million. Gross margin was 27.0%, down from 28.8% last year but above the first quarter’s 25.8%. Net income was $3.8 million, or $0.25/sh, above last year’s $3.2 million or $0.21/sh and our estimate of $2.6 million or $0.17/sh.
Kefir the Driver. Once again, sales of drinkable kefir drove quarterly results. In 2Q24, drinkable kefir sales rose 30.8% to $41.0 million from $31.3 million in 2Q23. Drinkable kefir sales accounted for 83% of total revenue, up from 80% in the year ago period.
FDA Alignment Allows Phase 3 To Move Forward. PDS Biotech announced a loss of $8.3 million or $(0.23) per share for 2Q24. Cash at June 30, 2024, was $57.7 million, which we estimate to be sufficient to fund operations into 2H25. The company announced FDA alignment on the design of the Phase 3 VERSATILE-003 Plus trial, with preparations underway to begin the trial by year-end.
Meeting Results Confirmed Three-Arm Design Of Phase 3. PDS held a Pre-Phase 3 meeting with the FDA to get alignment on the design and analysis of the Phase 3 VERSATILE-003 Plus trial with the additional treatment arm testing the Triplet Combination of Versamune HPV, PDS01ADC, and Keytruda. The company’s immediate focus will be to start the VERSAMUNE-003 doublet arm by YE2024 while conducting the dose optimization stage separately. The design of the trial was discussed in our Research Note on July 9.
Schwazze (SHWZ/$0.22 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A First Look into 2Q24 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Results. Revenue of $43.2 million increased 2% y-o-y and was in-line with our $43 million estimate. Gross profit margin fell to 44% from 54.4% a year ago, but was in-line with our 43.6% projection. The GM decline reflects ongoing pricing pressure in both Colorado and New Mexico, as well as a greater mix of 3rd-party products in New Mexico and higher medical sales in Colorado. Schwazze reported a net operating loss of $2.7 million and a net loss of $13.9 million, or $0.20/sh. We were at a net loss of $0.19/sh.
Quarter Highlights. Schwazze generated sequential quarterly growth across all key financial metrics during the quarter. The Company continued to focus on sharper pricing and promotional strategies to drive store traffic and market share in both Colorado and New Mexico. Wholesale margins continued to show improvement.
Snail (SNAL/$0.73 | Price Target: $6) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 First Look At Q2 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $21.6 million, and adj. EBITDA of $3.1 million, both of which were lower than our forecasts of $27.8 million and $7.4 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. In our view, there were multiple factors contributing to the shortfall, such as deferred revenue in the quarter, as well as lower than expected revenue from ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) on Microsoft Game Pass.
Closing the gap. Notably, there is a technology gap between many potential ASA users’ PC hardware and the advanced processing power needed for the game, which uses Unreal Engine 5. This technology disparity has inhibited some users from migrating from the original game, ARK: Survival Evolved (ASE), to ASA, dampening ASA sales. However, an update to Unreal Engine 5 that is expected to take place in Q3. Should the update help bridge the technology gap, it could catalyze accelerated adaption of ASA.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 2Q Operational and Financial Results; 2024 Corporate Guidance Raised SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Q2 Punctuated by Reduced Cash Burn
FreightCar America (RAIL/$3.57 | Price Target: $4.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Solid 2Q Operational and Financial Results; 2024 Corporate Guidance Raised Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. FreightCar America generated second quarter adjusted net income to common stockholders of $1.772 million or $0.05 per share compared to $0.424 million or $0.02 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast $1.582 million and $0.05 per share. Revenue and rail car deliveries increased to $147.4 million and 1,159 compared to $88.6 million and 760 during the second quarter of 2023. On a year-over-year basis, adjusted EBITDA increased 50.6% to $12.1 million. While EPS was in line with our estimates, railcar deliveries, revenues and adjusted EBITDA exceeded our estimates of 980, $127.1 million, and $9.5 million, respectively. The weighted average diluted share count of ~32.3 million was also higher than our estimate of 31.1 million. Second quarter free cash flow amounted to $55.9 million based on net cash flows provided by operating activities of $57.2 million and $1.3 million of net cash flows used in investing activities.
Full Year 2024 corporate guidance. Management raised its full year 2024 guidance ranges. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,300 to 4,700, revenue is expected to be in the range of $560 million to $600 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $35 to $39 million. Previously, railcar deliveries were expected to be in the range of 4,000 to 4,400, revenue was expected to be in the range of $520 million to $572 million, and adjusted EBITDA was expected to be in the range of $32 million to $38 million.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$0.99 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Solid Q2 Punctuated by Reduced Cash Burn Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 in line. The company reported Q2 revenue of $21.4 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $22.0 million. Adj. EBITDA of a loss of $2.1 million was better than our forecast of a loss of $4.0 million, primarily driven by lower-than-expected SG&A expenses. Figure #1 Q2 Results illustrates the quarterly performance.
Key expansion to Home Depot. Following the conclusion of Q2, the company announced that its products would become available at Home Depot, the industry leader in the home improvement market. In our view, this is a significant step for the company as Home Depot has both retail consumers and professional contractors. Consequently, we believe the inclusion of SKYX products at Home Depot could accelerate revenue growth in both customer verticals. The Home Depot expansion also serves to validate the SKYX technology, given that Home Depot is a global industry leader.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 12, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock Inc. (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – Upgrading Our Investment Rating to Outperform from Market Perform CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/MARKET PERFORM – A Solid Quarter EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Our Estimates Reflect a Strong Finish to 2024; Rating Remains Outperform GDEV Inc (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Why An Upswing In Bookings Matters Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – Riding Out the Market Conditions Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Review of 2Q24 Results
Comstock Inc. (LODE/$0.1508 | Price Target: $2.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Upgrading Our Investment Rating to Outperform from Market Perform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Proposed transaction with SBC Commerce. Comstock executed an indicative term sheet for $325 million, or $315 million net of transaction fees, in funding through SBC Commerce LLC (SBCC), a U.S. based private equity group. The transaction is contingent on final due diligence and applicable regulatory approvals and is expected to close in tranches over the next two to three months. At this point, we assume the transaction will close successfully within the contemplated time frame.
Infusion of growth capital to accelerate commercialization. The transaction provides a clear valuation marker for each of the company’s fuels, metals, and mining businesses and secures growth capital to accelerate commercialization efforts. SBCC will acquire Comstock’s industrial and commercial real estate and water rights in Nevada for $50 million, or $47 million net of transaction expenses.
2Q24. Revenue came in at $490.1 million, up from $463.7 million a year ago and above our $482 million estimate. Increased occupancy and per diem rates drove the increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $83.9 million, up from $72.1 million, and our $74.6 million estimate. EPS was $0.17, adjusted EPS $0.20, and NFFO $0.42, compared to $0.13, $0.12, and $0.33, respectively, in 2Q23.
New Contract. In late July, CoreCivic received a Notice of Intent to Award a new management contract from the state of Montana to care for additional residents. The Company expects to receive 120 residents in the 3Q24. If the State needs additional capacity, the State may approve the utilization of any other facility CoreCivic owns or operates.
EuroDry (EDRY/$21 | Price Target: $30) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Our Estimates Reflect a Strong Finish to 2024; Rating Remains Outperform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. Eurodry Ltd. reported an adjusted second-quarter net loss to controlling shareholders of $447.4 thousand or ($0.17) per share compared to an adjusted net loss of $1.3 million or ($0.48) per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $5.0 million compared to $2.5 million during the prior year period. While financial results improved on a year-over-year basis due to higher revenue, driven by an increased average time charter equivalent rate, voyage and drydocking expenses were above our estimates.
Updating estimates. We forecast 2024 EBITDA of $20.7 million and a net loss of ($0.65) per share. The third quarter will be a heavy quarter for drydocking and our revisions are driven primarily by higher drydocking expenses and fewer voyage days. We anticipate the company to post a net loss in the third quarter but finish the year with a strong fourth quarter due, in part, to lighter drydocking activity.
GDEV Inc (GDEV/$2.91 | Price Target: $6) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Why An Upswing In Bookings Matters Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We are initiating coverage of GDEV, a global gaming company, with an Outperform rating and a $6 price target. Our favorable rating is based on an improved fundamental outlook and compelling stock valuation. After a post pandemic revenue slump as gaming activity returned to more normalized levels, the company now appears to be turning a corner towards revenue growth again. In our view, the story of GDEV’s improving fundamentals is under the radar, representing an opportunity for investors.
A leading player in the attractive gaming industry. GDEV is the largest independent, publicly traded gaming company that is profitable, generates cash flow, and has a solid balance sheet. The company’s revenues are diverse geographically, by platform, and by titles.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$19.43 | Price Target: $27) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Riding Out the Market Conditions Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q Results. The sale of the European business and the Motion Recruitment Partners acquisition affected revenue, as revenue declined to $1.06 billion from $1.22 billion last year, but in-line with our estimate of $1.07 billion. Net income for the quarter was $4.6 million, or $0.13/sh, from $7.5 million, or $0.20/sh, a year ago, as the Europe staffing sale contributed to the decrease. We estimated net income of $14.9 million or $0.42/sh.
Growth and Stability. While the uncertain market conditions continue to impact Kelly’s segments, management noted that segments saw sequential stabilization, while others continued to grow such as Education. We believe the stabilization indicates the bottom of demand for some of Kelly’s services, and management’s expectation of modest improvement in most of its segments in the second half gives this credence.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$19.73 | Price Target: $22) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Review of 2Q24 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Accelerating Growth. Kratos’ second quarter results reflect the successful execution of the Company’s strategy, in our view. The quarter was characterized by organic growth in key areas such as unmanned jet drone systems, turbine technologies, microwave products, and C5ISR.
Alignment. A hardware and software rich technology company, Kratos is well aligned to address increased global defense budgets in the areas such as air defense, missiles, radar, space, satellite, hypersonic engines, propulsion systems, C5ISR, microwave electronics, drones, cyber, and training systems.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 9, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Is there a Tailwind in the Forecast? Graham Corp (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – A Deeper Dive into 2Q24 Results and Updated Model Harte Hanks (HHS)/OUTPERFORM – Investment In Sales Not Yet Kicking In Gear NN Inc (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Reports Second Quarter Results Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q24 Reported With Summary Of Progress In Clinical Trials Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Political A Big Swing Factor
GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO/$9.15 | Price Target: $22) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Is there a Tailwind in the Forecast? Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results below estimates. The company reported Q2 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $105.9 million and a loss of $12.3 million, respectively, below our estimates. Our revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates were $144.0 million and a loss of $6.3 million, respectively.
Preparing for AEP. The company has been testing Plan Fit Save, an initiative whereby it is compensated by health plan carriers for improving customer retention when GoHealth recommends consumers to keep their existing plans. We believe the combination Plan Fit Save, as well as the prospect for disruption to health plan benefits in the upcoming Annual Enrollment Period, could set the company up for a strong finish to the year.
Graham Corp (GHM/$28.71 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Deeper Dive into 2Q24 Results and Updated Model Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q24 Results. The improved top and bottom lines reflect Graham’s successful operating strategy, in our view. The first quarter can be characterized by solid growth, consistent improvement, and strengthened profitability. We also would note the expansion of Graham’s defense business has reduced the Company’s economic sensitivity.
New Orders. Graham’s Barber-Nichols segment reported the receipt of three new awards, totaling in excess of $65 million. An extension of work for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo program, received in the first quarter; a new program for the Columbia-class submarine; and a contract to provide cryogenic recirculation pumps for space vehicles. We believe these awards demonstrate the Company’s capabilities to successfully compete in its key markets.
Harte Hanks (HHS/$8.21 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Investment In Sales Not Yet Kicking In Gear Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Q2 results. Revenues of $45.0 million was slightly below our $47.5 million estimate. In spite of the lighter than expected revenues, the company delivered on adj. EBITDA expectations at $3.6 million, reflecting benefits from its cost efficiency strategy developed last year. Figure #1 Q2 Results highlights the quarter versus our estimates.
A healthy revenue indicator. Management indicated that its pipeline of business is building and ahead of last year, but that there is a long tail to convert to revenue. We believe that the company’s investment into building its sales infrastructure and culture, which began late last year, has yet to be converted into enhanced revenue. The hoped for impact of the investment may be pushed out a quarter or two.
NN Inc (NNBR/$3.37 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Reports Second Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q24. Net sales totaled $123 million, down 1.8% y-o-y. We were at $118 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.4 million, up from $10.5 million last year and above our $12.2 million estimate. The second quarter was the fourth consecutive quarter of improved y-o-y performance. NN reported an adjusted net loss of $0.02/sh, compared to an adjusted net loss of $0.08/sh in 2Q23. We were at an adjusted loss of $0.05/sh.
Transformation Program. NN is seeing the benefits of its transformation initiatives, which are yielding observable momentum across key focus areas of profitability enhancement, operational performance, and accelerated new business wins. Notably, on a trailing-twelve-month basis, NN has delivered adjusted EBITDA of $49.2 million, an improvement of 28.7% y-o-y.
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.28 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q24 Reported With Summary Of Progress In Clinical Trials Rating: OUTPERFORM
Ocugen reported a 2Q24 loss of $10.3 million or $(0.04) per share. During the quarter, the first patient was treated in the Phase 3 liMeliGhT (pronounced “limelight”) trial for OCU400 in retinitis pigmentosa (RP). Separately, the Phase 1/2 OCU410 trial for geographic atrophy in dry AMD completed dosing of its third cohort and began Phase 2. Cash on June 30 was $15.7 million, excluding $32.6 million raised in a public offering on August 2. Based on our quarterly estimates, we project cash to last until 2H25 with about $40 million in cash at the end of 3Q24.
OCU400 Began The Phase 3 liMeliGht Trial and Expanded Access. During the quarter, the first patient in the Phase 3 liMeliGhT trial testing OCU400 in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) was treated. The trial has one arm testing OCU400 in patients that have the RHO mutation and another arm with any of several gene mutations associated with RP. Each arm will have 75 patients for a total target enrollment of 150 patients.
Saga Communications (SGA/$16 | Price Target: $24) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Political A Big Swing Factor Rating: OUTPERFORM
Delivers on expectations. The company reported Q2 revenue of $28.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $28.8 million and $4.6 million, respectively as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Notably, the revenue estimate was achieved in spite of weaker than expected Political advertising.
Pacings appear weak. Management indicated that Q3 revenues are pacing down mid single digits, which, we believe, may be conservative given that there is limited visibility on Political advertising. The weak revenue outlook reflects, however, lackluster core advertising which appears to be impacted by the current macroeconomic headwinds.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 8, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q24 Financial Report Confirms Discussions With Abbott For Tecarfarin Development Conduent Inc (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Post-Transition Business Coming into Focus CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/MARKET PERFORM – A Peek into the Second Quarter Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Second Quarter Financial Results; Increasing Estimates Graham Corp (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at the First Quarter Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 2Q24 Sets Up Rest of the Year Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – A Look at the Second Quarter Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Earnings Exceed Expectations The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q24 – Delivering Steady Operational and Financial Performance The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – An Overreaction To A Difficult Quarter Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Digital On A Favorable Revenue Trajectory
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$0.41 | Price Target: $4) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q24 Financial Report Confirms Discussions With Abbott For Tecarfarin Development Rating: OUTPERFORM
LVAD Development Takes The Spotlight Cadrenal reported 2Q24 loss of $2.4 million or $(0.15) per share. Tecarfarin development in ESRD with AFib continues, and the FDA granted Orphan Drug Designation for tecarfarin in implanted circulatory support devices, such as LVADs. The company also confirmed that it was in discussions with Abbott (ABT, Not Rated) to develop tecarfarin as an anticoagulant for LVAD patients. We believe this disclosure could lead to a development agreement between the two companies.
Discussions With Abbott Confirmed. Abbott makes the HeartMate 3 LVAD device and has presented data from its ARES-HM3 study highlighting the need for an improved anticoagulant in LVAD patients. This presentation was discussed in our Research Note on June 5. While a collaboration has not been announced, confirmation of discussions for a pivotal trial testing tecarfarin in LVAD patients is good news.
Conduent Inc (CNDT/$3.08 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Post-Transition Business Coming into Focus Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 beat. The company reported Q2 results that were better than our estimates. Revenue of $828 million was better than our forecast of $812 million and adj. EBITDA of $35 million exceeded our estimate of $19 million. Figure #1 Q2 Results illustrates how the results compared with our estimates. Notably, upheaval to the business caused by the divestitures underway make for choppy near term quarterly results. In our view, investors should focus more on how the company will look after the transition.At the trough? With adj. EBITDA margins of 4.2% in the quarter, we believe the company’s results are roughly at a trough. Management indicated that margins will likely improve sequentially in future quarters as the company
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$12.26) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Peek into the Second Quarter Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Second Quarter Results. Total revenue was at $490.1 million, above our forecast of $482 million and above last year’s $463.7 million. Occupancy rates helped the increase in revenue, as occupancy increased to 74.3% from 70.3% in the prior year. Management’s cost initiatives are also taking root, as net income was $19.0 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to $14.8 million or $0.13 last year. We estimated net income of $14.4 million or $0.13 per diluted share.
New Contract. CoreCivic was awarded a new management contract in July from the state of Montana to house additional residents at the Company’s facilities. The Company expects that 120 additional residents will be housed in the Saguaro Correctional Facility in Eloy, Arizona. We believe the new contract with the state shows the Company’s flexibility to accommodate additional residents and demand for CoreCivic’s services.
Second quarter financial results. Euroseas Ltd. generated second quarter adjusted net income of $34.3 million or $4.92 per share compared to $29.0 million or $4.17 per share during the prior year period. Net revenues increased 23.1% to $58.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 38.1% to $42.3 million. During the second quarter, the company owned and operated an average of 21.26 vessels earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $31,639 per day compared to 18 vessels earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $30,151 per day during the prior year period.
Updating estimates. We have increased our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $13.24 and $132.0 million, respectively, from $100.0 million and $9.70. We raised our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $99.4 million and $7.80, respectively, from $90.4 million and $6.80. Our revisions are based on the company’s strong second quarter financial results and higher average time charter equivalent rates in 2024 and 2025.
Graham Corp (GHM/$27.84 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | First Look at the First Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Results. Net sales for the quarter were $50.0 million, above the prior year’s $47.6 million and in-line with our estimate of $50.0 million. Higher margin defense sales helped increase revenue as well as gross margin, as gross margin increased to 24.8% from 23.1% last year and above our forecast of 22.0%. Net income totaled $3.0 million, or $0.27/sh, compared to $2.6 million or $0.25/sh last year. We estimated net income of $1.6 million or $0.15/sh.
New Facility. In an effort to support the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding schedule, the Company received a $13.5 million investment during fiscal 2024 to expand its Batavia, N.Y. production capabilities. The Company is expecting to break ground on the facility in August 2024. We believe the expansion of the facility can facilitate the needs of the U.S. Navy and also potential non-U.S. Navy customers, should the Company have excess capacity.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$8.58 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Solid 2Q24 Sets Up Rest of the Year Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q24. Revenue totaled $170.1 million, up from $132.7 million a year ago. We had forecast $166 million. Higher capital and coastal protection project revenues drove the increase. Gross margin improved to 17.5% from 13.5%. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased $9.2 million to $25.8 million. Great Lakes recorded net income of $7.67 million, or EPS of $0.11, compared to $1.73 million, or $0.03/sh in 2Q23.
Backlog. Quarter-end dredging backlog totaled $807.9 million, with an additional $273.1 million in low bids and options pending award and another $44.6 million of offshore wind backlog. Post quarter-end, Great Lakes was the low bidder on approximately $181.6 million of additional work.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$20.07 | Price Target: $22) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Look at the Second Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Continued Strong Results. Revenue was reported at $300.1 million, beating out our estimate of $270 million by a wide margin and last year’s revenue of $256.9 million. Organic growth was 16.7%. Net income totaled $7.9 million from a prior net loss of $2.7 million last year. We estimated net income of $0.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $29.9 million.
KUS. For the quarter, Unmanned Systems was the star performer, generating revenues of $85.8 million, as compared to $52.1 million in the second quarter of 2023, with organic revenue growth of 61.8% driven primarily by increased domestic target drone production and a certain international target drone delivery which contributed $17.4 million.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$9.95 | Price Target: $13) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter Earnings Exceed Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. Seanergy reported second-quarter adjusted net income of $15.3 million or $0.77 per share compared to $3.3 million or $0.18 per share during the prior year period. Unadjusted for stock compensation and loss on extinguishment of debt, EPS amounted to $0.68. We had forecast net income of $12.5 million or $0.61 per share. The variance to our estimate was largely revenue driven with greater fleet utilization of 99.7% versus our 99.4% assumption and a modestly higher average time charter equivalent rate (TCE). Expenses were also below our estimates in several categories, including voyage expenses.
Updating estimates. Despite strong second quarter results, we lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $101.1 million and $2.35, respectively, from $108.7 million and $2.77. Our revised estimates reflect a reduction in operating days in the second half due to drydocking and lower average time charter equivalent rates. While the overall supply/demand outlook remains strong, some uncertainty exists beyond 2024, particularly with respect to demand in China.
The GEO Group (GEO/$12.12 | Price Target: $17) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | 2Q24 – Delivering Steady Operational and Financial Performance Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q24 Results. Revenue of $607.2 million compared to $593.9 million last year, with all business segments except BI showing y-o-y growth. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $124.1 million versus $119.3 million. Reported net loss was $0.25/sh, versus EPS of $0.20/sh las year. Excluding one-time refi costs, adjusted EPS of $0.23 versus $0.24 last year. We were at a loss of $0.22 and EPS of $0.26, respectively.
Stable, At Higher Levels. GEO ICE populations were stable at approximately 13,000 in the quarter, but up 30% from the year ago. U.S. Marshals populations remained in the 9,000 neighborhood, up some 8% over last year. With current ICE bed utilization some 4,500 beds below the 41,500 authorized level, there is room for additional growth if funding materializes.
The ODP Corporation (ODP/$24.56 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | An Overreaction To A Difficult Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q24 Results. The Company reported lackluster operating results that were largely driven by a challenging macroeconomic environment. Revenue of $1.72 billion, adj. EBITDA of $57 million, and net income of negative $4 million, or negative $0.12 per share, all experienced y-o-y decreases. Notably, ODP shares were down roughly 35% at market close, which, in our opinion was an overreaction, spurred on by recessionary concerns.
Veyer gains traction. During the earnings call management highlighted that Veyer received a verbal agreement from a large e-commerce company that has the potential to nearly double the segment’s top line. Notably, the agreement pertains to warehousing and the company’s well established supply chain. Importantly, we view the contract as a significant development that has the ability to favorably alter the Company’s trajectory.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$11.09 | Price Target: $21) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Digital On A Favorable Revenue Trajectory Rating: OUTPERFORM
In line quarter. The company delivered on expectations for its second quarter. Total company revenues of $118.2 million, down a modest 2.5% from the year earlier quarter, was in line with our $117.7 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $26.2 million, in line with our $26.8 million estimate and within the company’s guidance range of $26.0 million to $27.0 million.
Digital on a recovery trajectory. Its Interactive business is sequentially gaining subscribers and its programmatic business, Ignite, had solid 9% revenue growth in Q2. With easier National Digital comps and with improving revenue trends in its Interactive business, we expect its Digital segment to return toward revenue growth in the second half.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – July Production Released Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Bringing the Final Step In-House Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Q2 Results: A Closer Look GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – GeoVax Highlights Trial Progress In 2Q24 Report Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – In a More Stable Environment V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Set Up For 2H24 Growth
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.91 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | July Production Released Rating: OUTPERFORM
AI and Staking. Bit Digital had 256 servers generating revenue during the quarter and earned an estimated $4.3 million of revenue during the month. The staking side had approximately 17,184 ETH actively staked, flat with last month, and earned a blended APY of approximately 3.3% on its staked ETH in the month of July, slightly down from last month’s 3.5%.
Mining Side. The Company produced 60.5 BTC in the month, a slight 1.9% decrease from the previous month. The active hash rate was roughly 2.46 EH/s, a decline from 2.57 EH/s in June. With the active goal of 6.0 EH/s at the end of 2024, we anticipate a ramp up in the hash rate during the last few months of the year.
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.1847 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Bringing the Final Step In-House Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lithium carbonate production at the pilot plant. Century Lithium successfully added a lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility which is part of the company’s Angel Island Mine project. Recall that Century recently changed the name of its Clayton Valley Lithium project to Angel Island Mine to distinguish it from other projects. Previously, concentrated lithium solutions from the pilot plant were treated by Saltworks Inc. at their facility in Richmond, British Columbia to produce samples of battery grade lithium carbonate.
Following through on the feasibility study. Adding the lithium carbonate stage at the pilot plant satisfies one of the recommendations contained in the recently published feasibility study. Being able to produce battery grade lithium on site further demonstrates the commercial viability of the project and will also help the company to better optimize the process from the direct lithium extraction (DLE) phase through to production of the final product. Century successfully treated 200 liters of concentrated lithium solution and produced 20 kilograms of high-grade lithium carbonate on site.
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$3.98 | Price Target: $8) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Q2 Results: A Closer Look Rating: OUTPERFORM
Electrical Systems. To our surprise, the segment had a difficult quarter, revenue decreased $13.5 million, or 21.2%. The decrease was largely attributed to a slow down in the construction and agriculture industries, and new contract wins taking longer to ramp up and at lower than expected volumes. In our view, the company is well positioned to capitalize on the industry rebound, anticipated to take place in 2025 & 2026.
Vehicle Solutions. The segment experienced a decrease of $11.8 million, or 7.7%, from the prior year period, which was primarily driven by softer demand and reorganization. Notably, the company anticipated a more drastic decline in the business and closed a plant, shifting manufacturing to three other existing facilities, which should improve cost structure over the long-term.
GeoVax Made Significant Advances In 2Q24. GeoVax reported a 2Q24 loss of $5.1 million or $(1.99) per share. The company reviewed the progress made during the quarter, including the DARPA grant for the Phase 2 CM04S1 trial, two CM04S1 trials in immunocompromised cancer patients, and announcement of the Phase 2 Gedeptin trial design.
Financial Results Reflect First Grant Revenues. During 2Q, GeoVax recognized $0.3 million in revenues from work related to the Phase 2 CM04S1 trial. Revenue is recognized as the work is completed on a cost-reimbursement basis, with billings recorded as receivables. The company had $1.6 million in cash on June 30 and plans to raise capital in the near future.
Information Services Group (III/$3.17 | Price Target: $8) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | In a More Stable Environment Rating: OUTPERFORM
Improved Metrics. Although performance decreased from the prior year, the Company improved sequentially. Stable revenue and lower costs led to higher a gross margin of 39.5% compared to 36.1% in the first quarter. The increased margin led to profitability in the quarter compared to a net loss last quarter. These improvements show ISG’s efficiency in the continued down environment while the Company prepares for clients to resuming spending, in our view.
Geographies. Although the regions are down from the prior year, most of ISG’s geographies are showing stability. Both the Americas and Europe are experiencing stability in their pipelines even as the uncertain macro environment continues. We would note management believes spending will resume more quickly in the Americas segment, primarily the U.S., with a return to spending as soon as the fourth quarter.
V2X (VVX/$45.75 | Price Target: $62) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Set Up For 2H24 Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q24 Results. Record revenue of $1.07 billion, up 9.7% from $977.9 million in 2Q23. We had estimated $1.02 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $72.3 million, or a 6.7% margin, compared to $77.8 million and 8.0% last year, driven by contract mix. V2X reported a GAAP net loss of $6.5 million, or a loss of $0.21/sh, versus net income of $1.8 million, or $0.06/sh, in 2Q23. Adjusted EPS was $0.83 versus $1.10. We had estimated adjusted EPS at $0.87.
Revenue Drivers. Revenue growth in the quarter was achieved through continued expansion of existing business in the Pacific and Middle East regions, as well as new programs. Revenue growth in both areas grew by 29% year-over-year. Notably, in the quarter V2X had over $500 million of on contract growth.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 2Q24 Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – A Look at the Second Quarter
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$4.73 | Price Target: $12) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | First Look at 2Q24 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Still Challenging. 2Q24 revenue declined 12.3% y-o-y to $229.9 million due to softening global customer demand. We had projected $237.5 million. Operating income was $0.8 million and adjusted operating income totaled $5.7 million, down 65.9% y-o-y. CVGI reported a net loss of $1.6 million, or $0.05/sh, and adjusted net income of $2.1 million, or EPS of $0.06. We had forecast adjusted EPS of $0.21. Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million was down 51.9% y-o-y and short of our $16 million estimate.
Drivers. Second quarter results were challenged due to multiple factors. In particular, continued softening in the construction and agricultural end markets and reduced volumes in new business win launches, impacting the key growth segment in Electrical Systems. CVG also experienced operational inefficiencies in the Vehicle Solutions segment resulting from a new product launch with a major customer across multiple sites, as well as activities to prepare the Cab Structures business for sale.
Information Services Group (III/$3.16 | Price Target: $8) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Look at the Second Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q Results. Reported revenues totaled $64.3 million, slightly below our estimate of $65 million. Clients are continuing to delay projects, as these are being pushed further. Net income was better than expected at $2.0 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared to $2.3 million or $0.05 last year. We estimated a net loss of $0.2 million or breakeven EPS.
Silver Lining. The continued headwind of client decision making has offered a light at the end of the tunnel for management. An increase in contract value through ISG Tango, now exceeding $4 billion from $2.6 billion in the previous quarter, offers a sign that clients are allocating more towards projects in our view. The increase in overall contract value showcases management’s belief in increasing business spending as the year progresses.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 5, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q 2024: A Closer Look Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Green Shoots Wither Amidst Economic Uncertainty Haynes International (HAYN)/MARKET PERFORM – Tempering Expectations for the Remainder of FY 2024 and FY 2025
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$4.65 | Price Target: $12) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | 2Q 2024: A Closer Look Rating: OUTPERFORM
Segment results. Americas revenue totaled $292.3 million in Q2, a decrease of 13.1% from the prior year period. Comparable sales were down 12.7%. International revenue was $146.0 million in Q2, a decrease of 7.1% from the prior period. Comparable sales decreased 5.1%. While revenue was modestly below our estimates, largely due to soft demand for business and consumer office products and a shift from lower margin products, we believe the Company’s outlook is favorable.
Cost reduction efforts. The company made significant progress towards its cost reduction target of $60 million in annualized savings, with $10 million in cost reductions realized so far this year, and $20 million of savings expected for full year 2024. Notably, the Company reduced inventory levels by 17% from the prior year with its technology enabled SKU rationalization
Cumulus Media (CMLS/$1.62) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Green Shoots Wither Amidst Economic Uncertainty Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Mixed Q2 results. The company reported revenue of $204.8 million, slightly lighter than our expectations of $206.2M. Due to cost cuts, adj. EBITDA was $25.2 million, finishing ahead of our estimates by $2.1M. Digital revenues advanced 5%, but was slower than the 7% in the first quarter.
Lackluster pacing outlook. Management indicated that third quarter revenue pacing is disappointingly down low single digits, in spite of the anticipated influx of Political advertising. We believe that spot advertising is down mid single digits, with Network likely to be down double digits, similar to the second quarter.
Haynes International (HAYN/$59.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Tempering Expectations for the Remainder of FY 2024 and FY 2025 Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Third quarter financial results. Haynes reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.1 million or $0.63 per share compared to $8.8 million or $0.68 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million compared to $18.7 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. Third-quarter results were negatively impacted by raw material headwinds and lower mill production volumes due to fewer orders and company initiatives to reduce inventory.
Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $68.5 million and $2.52, respectively, from $77.3 million and $3.00. The revisions reflect third quarter financial results and management expectations that fourth quarter revenue and earnings will be like the third quarter due to the unfavorable impact of lower production volumes. Our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates were lowered to $90.5 million and $3.82, respectively, from $99.5 million and $4.15 to reflect lower revenue and margin expectations in 2025, particularly during the first half of the year.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 2, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 2Q24 Results Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – A Strategic Sale DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – A Transitionary Quarter FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Multi-Year Tank Car Conversion Contract Provides a Solid Path Toward Tank Car Production Haynes International (HAYN)/MARKET PERFORM – Third Quarter Negatively Impacted by Lower Production and Raw Material Headwinds
2Q24 Results. Reported results continue to be impacted by soft demand for ACCO products. In addition, the previously disclosed exit of certain lower margin business, primarily in the back-to-school categories, and a one-time impairment charge related to goodwill and intangible assets negatively impacted reported results.
Details. Revenue of $438.3 million was down 11.2% on a reported basis y-o-y, with comp sales off 10.2%, reflecting softer global business and consumer demand, although computer accessories saw growth. We had projected revenue of $455 million, in-line with consensus. Reported operating loss was $111.2 million reflecting $165.2 million of non-cash impairment charges. Adjusted operating income was $64.6 million, down from $66.2 million in 2Q23. GAAP net loss was $125.2 million, or $1.29/sh, with adjusted net income of $36.6 million, or $0.37/sh. In 2Q23, ACCO reported net income of $26.4 million, or $0.27/sh, and adjusted net income of $36.5 million, or $0.38/sh.
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$5.1 | Price Target: $12) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Strategic Sale Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cab Structures. Yesterday, after the market close, Commercial Vehicle Group (CVG) announced the sale of its Kings Mountain, NC Cab Structures business. This is another step in the Company’s strategic plan to lessen the impact of the highly cyclical Class 8 truck business.
Details. Net proceeds of the transaction are expected to be $40 million, with closure in the second half of 2024. We expect the majority of the net proceeds to be used for debt paydown and other general corporate purposes. CVG did not release unit financial performance, but we do expect management to update its full-year 2024 outlook to reflect the impact of the business unit divesture during its 2Q24 earnings conference call on August 6th.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$10.39 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Transitionary Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Environment. The government continues to delay its decision making process on various contract awards, as management notes that although decisions do take time, they have been abnormally long in 2024. Coinciding with this is the VA’s decision on its CMOP locations, which provides a good and bad aspect for DLH. The good is a likely extension of DLH’s ID/IQ contract with the VA, but the bad is that the VA is reducing responsibilities within the awards, not allowing the Company to differentiate from its competitors.
Expanding Markets. As the government delays its decisions, management is focused on its three markets in digital transformation & cyber security, science research & development, and systems & engineering & integration. These markets have had growth to their budget in recent years and we believe they provide DLH with future opportunities to expand its pipeline and add to its total proposals outstanding, a focus of management.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$3.49 | Price Target: $4.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Multi-Year Tank Car Conversion Contract Provides a Solid Path Toward Tank Car Production Rating: OUTPERFORM
Expansion into tank car conversions. FreightCar America has entered into a multi-year contract to convert over 1,000 existing DOT-111 tank cars to DOT-117R (retrofit) tank cars over a two-year period. In addition to further diversifying its product offerings, the expansion into tank car conversions provides a solid path toward M-1002 tank car facility certification by the Association of American Railroads and the production of DOT-117 tank cars.
Ensuring the safe transportation of flammable liquids. The completed tank cars will receive new exterior tank jackets, thermal protection, full height head shields, top fittings protection and upgraded bottom outlet valves. As part of a federally mandated program, all tank cars transporting Class 3 flammable liquids, such as refined products, crude oil and ethanol, are required to meet DOT-117 or equivalent specifications by May 1, 2029.
Haynes International (HAYN/$59.66) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Third Quarter Negatively Impacted by Lower Production and Raw Material Headwinds Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Third quarter financial results. Haynes reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.1 million or $0.63 per share compared to $8.8 million or $0.68 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million compared to $18.7 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. Third-quarter results were negatively impacted by raw material headwinds and lower mill production volumes due to fewer orders and company initiatives to reduce inventory. Strong operating cash flow of $52.5 million supported reducing the balance of the company’s credit facility by $24.2 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2024.
Merger Update. With respect to Haynes’ proposed merger with North American Stainless, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Acerinox S.A., required approvals in the United States have been obtained. Following favorable decisions by European countries reviewing the transaction from a foreign direct investment (FDI) perspective, the company expects to obtain remaining required clearances
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 1, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Casino Games A Key Driver DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – A Look into the Third Quarter FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Overview of 2Q24 Operating Results GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Gedeptin Phase 2 Head and Neck Trial Design Announced MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Tack On Another Approval
Codere Online (CDRO/$8.2 | Price Target: $14) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Casino Games A Key Driver Rating: OUTPERFORM
Adj. EBITDA positive. Q2 overachieved expectations with revenue growth a strong 39% to €54.4 million (vs our €47.6 million estimate) and with positive adj. EBITDA of €1.3 million (vs. our flat estimate). The results benefited from a favorable sports calendar, as well as strong customer growth for its casino games. Casino revenue accounted for 59% of total company revenue, up from 56% in Q1.
Spain and Mexico deliver strong revenue performance. The company exhibited favorable operating momentum in its latest Q2 quarter. Net gaming revenue increased a solid 39% to €54.4 million, nicely above our estimate of €47.6 million. The quarterly revenue represented a sequential quarterly revenue improvement from the first quarter at €53.0 million and an acceleration in revenue growth from 34% in Q1.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$11.57 | Price Target: $21) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Look into the Third Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q Results. Revenue was reported at $100.7 million, below our estimate of $103 million and down from the prior year of $102.2 million. Net income was $1.1 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to $1.7 million, or $0.12 last year. EBITDA was roughly $10.0 million versus $11.4 million in the prior year, or a margin of 10.0% and 11.1%, respectfully, in range of management’s expectations.
Delays. The GRSi acquisition continues to experience anticipated runoff of DLH’s small business set-aside awards, as these contracts transitioned towards small businesses impacting overall revenue. The government evaluation process also has resulted in delays for new business revenue for the Company in fiscal 2024. However, with the budgets passed earlier in the year for various government departments, including the VA and HHS, we expect DLH to be awarded new contracts sooner rather than later.
FAT Brands (FAT/$5.25 | Price Target: $25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Overview of 2Q24 Operating Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Note: FAT Brands has entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with Noble Capital Markets relating to the potential sale of up to $10.335 million of Class A common stock and/or 8.25% Series B Cumulative Preferred stock. As a result, this report will just focus on a review of FAT Brands’ second quarter operating results.
2Q24 Results. FAT’s 2Q24 results were very similar to 1Q24 results. While we had hoped for some sequential improvement, given the overall industry challenges seen so far this reporting season, relatively flat results are not too bad. Revenue totaled $152 million, flat sequentially and up 42.4% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $15.7 million versus $23.1 million last year, with the decline reflecting lower employee retention credits this quarter. FAT reported a net loss of $41.3 million, or $2.43 per share, compared to a loss of $8.7 million, or a loss of $0.53/sh in 2Q23.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$2.08 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Gedeptin Phase 2 Head and Neck Trial Design Announced Rating: OUTPERFORM
Gedeptin Will Be Tested As A Neoadjuvent. GeoVax announced the design of the Phase 2 trial testing Gedeptin in head and neck cancer. As planned, a Clinical Advisory Panel completed its data review from the clinical trials and made its design recommendation. The trial will test Gedeptin in combination with an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) before surgery in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients after first recurrence. The trial is expected to start in 1H25.
Trial Will Use A Single Cycle Of Gedeptin Before Surgery. The trial will enroll patients with HNSCC after first relapse. Patients will be treated with a single cycle of Gedeptin/fludarabine and a checkpoint inhibitor, followed by surgery. This adds Gedeptin’s intracellular activation of a chemotherapy agent to kill cancer cells with the immune response of the checkpoint inhibitor. The planned enrollment is 36 patients with a primary endpoint of pathological response rate.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.54) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Tack On Another Approval Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Another State. MustGrow announced the Company has received the Idaho State Department of Agriculture approval for TerraSante, allowing the product to commence sales in the state. The state follows the existing Organic OMRI Listed certifications in Oregon and Washington. Idaho now joins the list of states to authorize product sales, including the aforementioned Oregon and Washington and California.
Market Size. Idaho provided approximately $1.3 billion in crop production from potatoes in 2023, an increase from $1.2 billion in 2022, as potatoes are the state’s top crop. Other commodities the state provides includes barley, alfalfa hay, peppermint oil, and food trout. Overall, the state’s crop production was $3.3 billion in 2021.
Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $177.7 million and $0.77, respectively, compared to $249.2 million and $1.30 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $196.9 million and $0.86. Revenue declined 7.6% to $593.4 million due to lower coal sales volumes, which declined 11.8% due to transportation delays that were partially offset by higher coal sales price realizations which increased 3.8% to $65.30 per ton. Alliance experienced a $3.7 million, or $0.03 per unit, decrease in the fair value of the partnership’s digital assets. Roughly 500,000 tons of coal sales were deferred and are expected to be made up during the remainder of the year.
Updated 2024 corporate guidance. Management updated its 2024 guidance which calls for lower coal sales volumes and higher oil and gas royalty volumes. The lower coal sales guidance is based on uncertainty associated with coal export sales. While the guidance for coal sales volume was lowered, sales price realization expectations were increased at the midpoint of guidance.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.07 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Coming to Home Depot Rating: OUTPERFORM
Collaboration with Home Depot. Yesterday, the company announced a collaboration with Home Depot, the industry leader in the home improvement market. The announcement marks the first time the company’s products will be available at a big box retailer. In addition, all of the company’s current product offerings will be available on the Home Depot website.
Step forward for professional sales channel. In addition to serving retail consumers, Home Depot is a leading supplier for professional contractors. As such, we believe the inclusion of SKYX products at Home Depot could accelerate the adoption of the smart ceiling receptacle and SkyPlug products by commercial contractors.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Eledon Announces Patient Enrollment Milestone and Confirms Timeframe For Completion Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – A Set Up For 2025
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$2.85 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Eledon Announces Patient Enrollment Milestone and Confirms Timeframe For Completion Rating: OUTPERFORM
Eledon Announced It Has Reached Two-Thirds Patient Enrollment Milestone. Eledon has enrolled its 80thpatient in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial testing tegoprubart against tacrolimus for prevention of kidney transplant rejection. The trial is expected to reach its full enrollment of 120 patients by YE2024 as expected.
The BESTOW Trial Is Designed To Compare Tegoprubart To Tacrolimus. The Phase 2 BESTOW trial is an open-label active-comparator trial comparing tegoprubart directly against tacrolimus, the standard of care in kidney transplantation. The primary endpoint is superior mean eGFR (a measure of kidney graft function) at 12 months post-transplant, with additional endpoints to provide clinically meaningful measures for comparison with tacrolimus.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.7028 | Price Target: $2.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Set Up For 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
In line Q2 preliminary results. The company announced limited, preliminary operating results from Q2. Revenue in the quarter is expected to be $3.0 million, modestly below our estimate of $3.6 million, and adj. EBITDA of negative $40,000 was in line with our estimate of negative $64,000.
LOGO sale finalized. The sale of the LOGO brand was finalized on June 30, and the company is expected to recognized a one time gain of $3.8 million. We estimate that Lori Goldstein accounted for roughly $5 million in annual revenues and $2 million in adj. EBITDA. However, after earn-outs, we estimate that the company was losing money on the brand.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 29, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – A Mid-Summer Month’s Progress: Tonmya Gets Fast Track Review and Antiviral Gets $34 Million Grant V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some New Awards; Refined Projections
EuroDry (EDRY/$22.3 | Price Target: $30) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Updating Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Eurodry operates a competitive fleet. EuroDry Ltd. owns and operates dry bulk carriers that transport major bulks, including iron ore, coal, grains, and minor bulks such as bauxite, phosphate, and fertilizer. Eurodry’s fleet is comprised of 13 dry bulk carriers, including five Panamax, five Ultramax, two Kamsarmax, and one Supramax dry bulk carriers all of which are in operation. The total cargo carrying capacity of the company’s 13 dry bulk carriers is 918,502 deadweight tonnes (dwt). The average age of the fleet is 13.5 years. The orderbook in the sector is nearing a 20-year low and demand growth for drybulk vessels appears strong through at least the remainder of 2024. Some uncertainty exists beyond 2024, particularly with respect to bulk commodity demand in China.
Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $23.8 million and $1.54, respectively, from $28.1 million and $2.05. The revisions reflect fewer available days in the second and third quarters due to drydocking, along with modestly lower time charter equivalent rates.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$0.55 | Price Target: $1.5) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 A Mid-Summer Month’s Progress: Tonmya Gets Fast Track Review and Antiviral Gets $34 Million Grant Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tonix Announced Two Significant Developments In Late July. Tonmya (TNX-102 SL) has received Fast Track Review designation from the FDA. This designation is awarded to products that can make significant impact on serious medical conditions. The designation provides important benefits for Tonmya including eligibility for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review Fast Track Review. The NDA application for approval is expected to be filed in 2H24.
Fast Track Review Is A Significant Distinction. The FDA awards Fast Track Review to drugs that treat serious conditions with unmet needs. It is given when the FDA believes the drug is either providing a therapy where none exists and/or has meaningful advantages over existing therapies. We have long believed the Tonmya Phase 3 data meets both requirements.
V2X (VVX/$51.8 | Price Target: $62) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Some New Awards; Refined Projections Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Awards. Returning to a continuing theme, V2X recently has been awarded some significant new and re-compete business. We believe the awards demonstrate the Company’s ability to compete, and win, in the converged environment.
GMR Award. Notably, on July 22nd V2X secured a $48.5 million ID/IQ contract with the U.S. Army for V2X’s Gateway Mission Router. This is a significant award, in our view, as it highlights V2X’s ability to deliver cutting edge solutions to its partners and expands the number of platforms on which GMR can reside. In addition, margins on the GMR product should be additive to the Company’s overall margin profile.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 26, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Ocugen Completes Phase 1 Dosing For OCU410 In Dry AMD Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights from the Company’s 10-K Filing Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Entering A New Growth Phase
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.63 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Ocugen Completes Phase 1 Dosing For OCU410 In Dry AMD Rating: OUTPERFORM
Escalating Dose Stage Has Completed Dosing. Ocugen reported completion of the escalating dose stage of its Phase 1/2 ArMaDa trial testing OCU410 in Geographic Atrophy (GA), a late-stage complication of dry age-related macular degeneration (dry AMD). OCU410 uses Ocugen’s “master regulatory gene” approach, with a single injection to deliver the nuclear receptor gene RAR-related orphan receptor A (RORA). This gene regulates pathways that lead to dry age-related macular degeneration.
Next Stage In Phase 1/2 Trial Expected In 3Q24. The Phase 1/2 ArMaDa trial is testing OCU410 in geographic atrophy (GA), a lesion secondary to dry AMD at 14 retina surgical centers in the US. The first stage of the trial administered three escalating doses of OCU410. The second stage will randomize patients into three arms at a ratio of 1:1:1 to compare the medium and high dosage levels to a control group. Endpoints will be efficacy and safety.
Resources Connection (RGP/$11.6 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Highlights from the Company’s 10-K Filing Rating: OUTPERFORM
10-K Filed. We had the opportunity to review the Company’s 10-K filed earlier in the week. Some key takeaways from the 10-K include the Company’s continuation of its pristine balance sheet, solid cash flow generation, and the return of capital to shareholders.
Pristine Balance Sheet. The Company continues to have plenty of liquidity to work with, as RGP’s total liquidity at year end was $283 million, with no outstanding debt. We believe the Company can utilize the liquidity in the balance sheet towards acquisitions should the opportunity present itself to RGP. Outside of acquisitions, management can utilize its liquidity towards organic growth, including its technology transformation initiative, in our view.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$9.35 | Price Target: $18) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Entering A New Growth Phase Rating: OUTPERFORM
In line quarter. Second quarter results were largely in line with our estimates. Q2 revenue of $21.1 million was a touch below our estimate of $22.4 million, and roughly flat with the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $4.9 million, above our estimate of $4.4 million by roughly 11.0%, as a result of lower marketing expenses and higher gross margin. Gross margins were 88.1%, better than our 86.2% estimate.
A focus on subscribers. The Company introduced an annual $40 paid subscription for its travel deals at the beginning of the calendar year. All of its 30 million legacy members will be introduced to the paid model beginning in 2025. Management plans to add new benefits for the paid membership, although it did not yet identify what those benefits might be.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 25, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Hitting its Stride and Gaining Momentum
Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF/$0.06 | Price Target: $0.2) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hitting its Stride and Gaining Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Augmenting the leadership team. Effective immediately, Maple Gold Mines Ltd. appointed Mr. Darwin Green, P. Geo., to its Board of Directors. Mr. Ian Cunningham-Dunlop, P. Eng., has been appointed Vice President, Technical Services effective on or before August 1, 2024. Both have impressive credentials which are summarized in the body of this note. As Mr. Kiran Patankar, CEO, has taken quick actions to reposition the company for successful outcomes, Mr. Green and Mr. Cunningham-Dunlop will strengthen the company’s ability to execute. Maple’s Chief Geologist and Engineer will report to Mr. Cunningham-Dunlop.
Upcoming events. We expect the company to hold a meeting of its Board of Directors ahead of releasing its second quarter financial results to the market in early August. On September 9, the company will host its annual meeting of shareholders at which time Maple Gold shareholders will vote on the recent joint venture restructuring transaction with Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM). Maple is also expected to provide a more detailed exploration update and plan later in the year prior to commencement of the company’s drilling program.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Two Time Charters with Costamare Bulkers Inc.; Updating Estimates
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$9.7 | Price Target: $14) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Two Time Charters with Costamare Bulkers Inc.; Updating Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
M/V Iconship. In mid-June, Seanergy announced the delivery of the M/V Iconship and the simultaneous commencement of its employment. The M/V Iconship is on a time-charter with Costamare Bulkers, Inc. for ~22 months. The daily hire is based at a premium over the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI). The company has the option to convert the daily hire from index-linked to fixed for a period of two to twelve months based on prevailing Capesize forward freight agreements (FFA).
M/V Lordship. The M/V Lordship, a scrubber-fitted Capesize dry bulk vessel built in 2010, has also been fixed on a time-charter with Costamare. The time-charter is expected to commence around the end of July, following the vessel’s scheduled drydocking, for a period of ~22 months.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 22, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Full 2024 Review and Updated Projections
Resources Connection (RGP/$11.2 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Full 2024 Review and Updated Projections Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full Year Results. For the twelve months ended May 25, 2024, RGP posted revenue of $632.8 million, a decline of 18.4% y-o-y. Same day constant currency revenue fell 18.8% y-o-y. Gross margin was 38.9% versus 40.4% in FY23. GAAP net income was $21 million, or $0.62/sh., compared to $54.4 million, or $1.59 last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.93 versus $2.00. Adjusted EBITDA in FY24 totaled $51.5 million, down from $100.2 million a year ago.
Setting Foundation. Management continues to control what they can while setting the foundation for an expected industry upturn. While the timing of the upturn is difficult to predict, we believe clients will become more willing to start spending on new projects as economic certainty becomes clearer. We believe the first interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve will be a signal of improved clarity and will provide clients comfort to start new projects.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 19, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – CDI-988 Reaches Milestone In Phase 1 Trial For Norovirus and Coronavirus Lifeway Foods (LWAY)/OUTPERFORM – The Family Feud Continues Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – A 4Q24 Beat; Stabilization, Waiting for Upturn
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$2.35 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CDI-988 Reaches Milestone In Phase 1 Trial For Norovirus and Coronavirus Rating: OUTPERFORM
CDI-988 Completes Phase 1 SAD Trial. Cocrystal announced that CDI-988 has completed the single ascending dose stage of the Phase 1 trial for CDI-988, its oral protease inhibitor in development for norovirus and coronavirus. The trial was designed to test the safety and tolerability of CDI-988, as well as its pharmacokinetics. The results justify moving forward to the multiple ascending dose (MAD) stage, expected later in FY2024.
SAD Study Was Designed To Test Basic Safety. The SAD trial was a double-blind trial to test a single oral administration of escalating doses ranging from 100 mg to 600 mg of CDI-988. The objectives were to determine basic safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics including food effects. There were no serious adverse events or treatment-emergent adverse events, with no laboratory or exam abnormalities. Safety and tolerability were considered sufficient to continue to the next stage of the trial.
Lifeway Foods (LWAY/$12.26 | Price Target: $20) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | The Family Feud Continues Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Demands. Ludmila and Edward Smolyansky renewed their demands for the immediate termination of Lifeway CEO Julie Smolyansky as well as the resignation of the majority of the Board. According to a press release issued yesterday, “The Smolyanskys believe these actions are necessary to avoid further underperformance and mismanagement of Company assets, and that new leadership can deliver swift and significant changes to shareholders.”
More. The release goes on to state, “it is impossible for the brand to achieve its full potential and value in the short and long term, and for Lifeway to move forward,” Julie Smolyansky must get out of the way. The Smolyanskys posted a related presentation at www.lifebacktolifeway.com, but the website did not appear to be working properly when we viewed it. Once again, the Smolyanskys call for an operational and strategic review of the business.
Resources Connection (RGP/$10.62 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A 4Q24 Beat; Stabilization, Waiting for Upturn Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q24 Results. Revenue of $148.2 million was above our forecast of $140 million, consensus $141 million, and management’s $137-$142 million guide. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $13.1 million, or an 8.8% margin, versus our estimate of $5.5 million. GAAP net income was $10.5 million, or $0.31/sh, and adjusted EPS was $0.28. We had forecast a GAAP loss of $0.02/sh and adjusted EPS of $0.07/sh. Consensus was $0.00 and $0.07, respectively.
Drivers. The top line was driven by a stabilization in the overall business, although clients remain cautious on spending on new projects. Gross margin of 40.2% was above the 37.5%-38% guide. Run rate SGA came in at $46.5 million, well below the $50-$52 million guide, and an 11% y-o-y improvement.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 16, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Expectations for 2024 and 2025
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.32 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Increasing Expectations for 2024 and 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. We increased our 2024 adjusted funds flow (AFF) and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to C$44.3 million and C$0.34 from C$40.9 million and C$0.30. Our revisions are driven by higher crude oil price assumptions and a redistribution of quarterly production estimates. While we have assumed higher oil prices in the second and third quarters, our model assumes prices weaken in the fourth quarter. We increased our 2025 AFF and EPS estimates to C$41.1 million and C$0.30, respectively, from C$31.4 million and C$0.21 based on higher production volume and crude oil price assumptions. We think our 2025 estimates could be conservative if the company can increase annual production within its targeted range of 10% to 20%.
Normal course issuer bid (NCIB). Hemisphere renewed its NCIB to purchase up to 8,255,766 common shares, representing ~10% of the current public float, for cancellation. The NCIB commenced on July 14 and will terminate on July 13, 2025. Under its previous NCIB, which authorized the repurchase of 8,670,636 shares and terminated July on 13, the company purchased 4,074,400 shares on the open market at a weighted average price of C$1.425. Shares are generally purchased opportunistically during periods of weakness.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock Inc. (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Comstock Metals Prepares to Scale Up
Comstock Inc. (LODE/$0.16) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Comstock Metals Prepares to Scale Up Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Industry-scale facility. Comstock Metals secured a long-term lease on a 100,000 square foot building in Silver Springs, Nevada. The facility, located on the same campus as Comstock’s operating demonstration plant, will be able to process up to 100,000 tons per year of end-of-life solar panels. Comstock Metals recently received approval for a conditional use permit from the Lyon County, Nevada Board of County Commissioners for the operation and material storage of solar panels at this facility.
On or ahead of schedule. Comstock’s demonstration facility is operating two shifts and expects to add a third shift during the third quarter. The company is advancing the full design and remaining permitting of its first industry-scale facility. Having fully secured the site lease and the county permit, the company has started to work on pre-engineering and state permitting processes so the remaining permit applications can be submitted
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 11, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Crunchy Hill Adds Another Layer of Excitement to the 2024 Exploration Program AZZ Inc (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Our Estimates and Price Target
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.345 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Crunchy Hill Adds Another Layer of Excitement to the 2024 Exploration Program Rating: OUTPERFORM
Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target. Aurania’s 2024 exploration program will focus on the Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target, including an induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey and drilling three drill holes later in the year totaling approximately 1,800 meters of drilling.
Awacha porphyry copper target. An Anaconda mapping program has been completed in the southern part of Aurania’s Awacha porphyry copper target area and exploration teams continue to map the remaining area. Having signed an agreement with the indigenous community that allows full access, the northern portion of the Awacha copper porphyry target will be mapped with the goal of preparing it for drilling in the future.
First quarter financial results. For the fiscal year 2025, AZZ reported adjusted first quarter net income of $44.0 million or $1.46 per share compared to $33.4 million or $1.14 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $38.9 million or $1.32. The consensus EPS estimate was $1.30. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10.2% to $94.1 million representing 22.8% of sales versus 21.8% of sales during the first quarter of FY 2024. Sales of $413.2 million exceeded our $402.6 million estimate and the 24.8% gross margin as a percentage of sales exceeded our estimate of 24.1%.
Balance sheet continues to strengthen. During the first quarter, AZZ generated strong operating cash flows of $71.9 million and further reduced debt by $25 million and is on track to achieve its goal of reducing debt by $60 million to $90 million during the fiscal year. At quarter end, the company’s net leverage was 2.8x trailing twelve months EBITDA. Cash and cash equivalents amounted to $10.5 million. During the quarter, AZZ returned capital to common shareholders in the form of cash dividend payments totaling $4.3 million.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 11, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ Inc (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Fiscal Year 2025 Starts Off Strong Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – Patient Survey Data From Pivotal Trial Shows Patients Prefer OLC
AZZ Inc (AZZ/$76.51 | Price Target: $95) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Fiscal Year 2025 Starts Off Strong Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. For the fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted first quarter net income of $44.0 million or $1.46 per share compared to $33.4 million or $1.14 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $38.9 million or $1.32 per share. The consensus EPS estimate was $1.30. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10.2% to $94.1 million representing 22.8% of sales versus 21.8% of sales during the first quarter of FY 2024. Sales of $413.2 million exceeded our $402.6 million estimate and a 24.8% gross margin as a percentage of first quarter sales exceeded our estimate of 24.1%. AZZ reiterated its prior fiscal year guidance with sales expected to be in the range of $1.525 billion to $1.625 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $310 million to $360 million, and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $4.50 to $5.00.
Balance sheet continues to strengthen. During the first quarter, AZZ generated operating cash flow of $71.9 million and the company further reduced debt by $25 million and is on track to achieve or exceed its goal of reducing debt by $60 million to $90 million during the fiscal year. At quarter end, the company’s net leverage was 2.8x trailing twelve months EBITDA. Cash and cash equivalents amounted to $10.5 million. During the quarter, AZZ returned capital to common shareholders in the form of cash dividend payments totaling $4.3 million.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.49 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Patient Survey Data From Pivotal Trial Shows Patients Prefer OLC Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pivotal Trial Included A Patient Satisfaction Survey. In late June, Unicycive released safety, efficacy, and dosing data from its Pivotal trial for OCL. As discussed on our Research Note on June 26, over 90% of the patients were able to reach target serum phosphate levels. The trial included a pre-specified patient survey asking about ease of use, satisfaction, and overall preference that shows patients prefer OLC over their current phosphate binders. We see this as an important point that could make it the best treatment in a $1 billion drug category.
We Consider Patient Preference To Be A Strong Point. OLC was developed as an improved formulation of Fosrenol (lanthanum citrate) that would require fewer and smaller pills. This was intended to improve compliance and maintain phosphate levels in the proper range. The Pivotal study for the NDA application showed sufficient safety, tolerability, and effective dose levels, with a pre-specified patient survey to collect post-treatment opinions.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/MARKET PERFORM – Updated Model Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates Based on Higher Charter Rates GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Forward To Continued Progress In 2H24
Model Updates. We updated our model to reflect the upcoming loss of the South Texas contract in mid-August. While a significant loss, we believe the ongoing increase in ICE detainees elsewhere could help soften the South Texas blow and we remain hopeful additional state and local contracts could be signed.
Details. As a reminder, South Texas generates approximately $40 million in quarterly revenue and generates approximately $0.10 per share in quarterly EPS. We assumed half of a quarter impact for 3Q24 and a full quarter impact in 4Q24. We kept the majority of the rest of the model consistent, although there may be some cost savings initiatives CoreCivic is able to put in place. We held our 2Q24 estimates the same.
Euroseas (ESEA/$38.86 | Price Target: $55) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Increasing Estimates Based on Higher Charter Rates Rating: OUTPERFORM
M/V Joanna charter. Euroseas Ltd. executed a new time charter contract for its 1,732 twenty-foot equivalent (teu) feeder containership, M/V Joanna, for a minimum period of 23 months to a maximum period of 25 months at an average gross daily rate of $16,500. The rate is higher than its current charter rate of $13,500 per day which ends in August. The charter for M/V Joanna will commence at the end of October 2024. The charter is expected to contribute EBITDA of ~$6.4 million during the minimum contracted period and increases the company’s remaining 2024 and 2025 charter coverage to 92% and 40%, respectively.
M/V Pepi Star charter. The company executed a time charter contract for the M/V Pepi Star, an 1,800 teu feeder containership currently under construction, for a minimum period of 23 to a maximum period of 25 months at a gross daily rate of $24,250. The time charter contract rate is higher than what we had previously forecast. The new charter will commence in mid-July upon delivery of the vessel from the shipyard. The charter is expected to contribute EBITDA in the amount of ~$12.3 million during the minimum contracted period.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$2.52 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Looking Forward To Continued Progress In 2H24 Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Reached Important Milestones For Both Platforms During 1H2024. The first half of 2024 has been a transformational period for GeoVax. A Phase 2 trial testing CM04S1 as a booster vaccine for COVID-19 reported initial data in February, then received a BARDA grant to conduct a large Phase 2b in June. The Gedeptin gene therapy program in head and neck cancer reported interim Phase 1/2 data showing successful proof-of-concept. Both programs are moving forward with additional milestones in 2H24.
BARDA Grant Allocates $367 Million For A Phase 2b Trial. In June, GeoVax announced that it has received a grant from BARDA to conduct a Phase 2b trial testing CM04S1 as a booster vaccine to protect healthy patients from COVID-19. As discussed in our Research Note on June 28, the grant terms include payments to GeoVax for clinical supplies and regulatory costs of $24.3 million (which could be increased to $45 million). The balance will be payable to Allucent, the CRO that will conduct the trial.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – June Numbers Released; Raising Price Target PDS Biotechnology (PDSB)/OUTPERFORM – Midyear Review: Has PDS Turned The Corner? Schwazze (SHWZ)/OUTPERFORM – A Move to the OTC Expert Market
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.77 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | June Numbers Released; Raising Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
BTC Mining. Bit Digital produced 61.7 BTC during June, a 2.5% decrease from 63.3 in the previous month. The active hash rate was 2.57 EH/s versus 2.54 EH/s the prior month. We expect to see an increase in active hash rate in the second half of the year as the Company becomes more opportunistic in deploying efficient miners.
AI/ETH. The Company had 256 servers actively running, similar to last month, and earned an estimated $4.1 million of unaudited revenue from its anchor contract during the month. Approximately 17,184 ETH was actively staked as of June 30, 2024, flat with last month. Bit Digital earned 3.5% blended APY on its staked ETH, up from 3.1% last month.
PDS Biotechnology (PDSB/$3.23 | Price Target: $17) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Midyear Review: Has PDS Turned The Corner? Rating: OUTPERFORM
Amended Phase 3 Clinical Trial Will Test Two Drugs. During 2Q24, the design of the Phase 3 trial testing Versamune HPV with Keytruda added a second treatment arm to test Versamune, PDS01ADC, and Keytruda against the active control arm of Keytruda alone. We believe this new trial design answers several questions that have caused PDSB to stagnate over the past year. A meeting with the FDA to ensure alignment on the trial design is expected during July 2024.
Thoughtful Consideration Has Led To Improved Trial Design. There are several points from the Phase 2 trial data that lead us to believe that adding the third arm to Phase 3 study improves its design. We believe the Triple-combination could have more rapid enrollment, produce data for product approvals, and support extensive use as a first-line therapy.
Schwazze (SHWZ/$0.22 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | A Move to the OTC Expert Market Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Move. We had an opportunity to speak with management regarding the announcement that the OTC Market Group will move trading of SHWZ shares to the OTC Expert Market from OTC QX as a result of the Company’s delinquent 10-Q filing for the period ending March 31, 2024. We believe the move to be temporary and does not have an impact on the long-term investment potential of SHWZ shares.
Why? As we noted previously, Schwazze has been caught up in the BF Borgers case. Schwazze replaced Borgers as the Company’s accountant in April, before the SEC case against Borgers was announced. The Company’s new accountant Baker Tilly is re-auditing Schwazze’s 2023 financial statements, but the review will take longer than the OTC Market Group’s 45 day late filing grace period. We are hopeful the review will be completed in the August/September time frame.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 8, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Harte Hanks (HHS)/OUTPERFORM – Recent Move Improves Free Cash Flow InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Expectations for the Remainder of 2024
Terminating pension plan 1. On June 25, the company announced it had executed its plan to terminate its Qualified Pension Plan 1. Notably, the company made a one time contribution of $6.1 million to the plan and transferred $71.9 million of plan assets to Nationwide. The company will make payments to plan members until July 31, and will have no further payment obligations beginning on August 1. We view the successful termination of Plan 1 as a favorable development that should positively impact cash flow.
Benefits of termination. With the termination of Plan 1 the company’s pension liability payment is expected to be approximately $1.2 million annually, which is a significant reduction from previous years. Prior to the termination of Plan 1, the company was contributing $3.0 million – $4.0 million annually to pension liabilities.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$1.62 | Price Target: $6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Expectations for the Remainder of 2024 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Looking ahead. While first quarter production was 5% lower than the prior year period, we expect a stronger second quarter due to wells that went into production in late March and early April and stronger crude oil prices. InPlay plans to drill and bring new production online in the third quarter of 2024 that is focused on high oil-weighted properties. The oil-weighted production from new wells is expected to benefit from higher realized oil prices forecasted for the balance of the year.
Updating estimates. We have increased our 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates to $0.18 and $0.26, respectively, from $0.16 and $0.23. Our estimates reflect modestly higher production in the second and third quarters of 2024 and higher crude oil prices. We forecast adjusted funds flow of $91.0 million in 2024 and $99.4 million in 2025. Depending on the company’s production profile, we think our estimates may prove conservative.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
NN, Inc. (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Strengthening the Balance Sheet
NN, Inc. (NNBR/$3 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com | Strengthening the Balance Sheet Rating: OUTPERFORM
Facility Sale. Last night after the market closed, NN disclosed the sale of its lone plastics products plant, known as Industrial Molding Corporation (IMC), to Davalor Mold Company, a wholly owned portfolio company of Blackford Capital. Total net cash proceeds will be approximately $16 million. The business was non-core to NN. Use of Proceeds. NN will use the net proceeds from the sale to pay down debt. At the end of the first quarter, NN had $151.5 million of long-term debt outstanding. All else equal, we would anticipate the Company to pay down its term loan, which had an all in interest rate of 14.3% at the end of 1Q, compared to the ABL rate of 7.42%. A $16 million payment would result in over $2 million of interest cost savings.
Bit Digital AI. The $100 million annual run rate goal is within reach as the expanded HPC services contract is now at a $92 million annualized revenue run-rate. The pipeline here is growing and we anticipate additional customers before year-end. Notably, HPC revenue generates significantly higher margins than the mining business, partially due to an energy cost that is 15x less. Management’s goal is to become a leading provider of AI infrastructure as a service to the EMEA region.
Company Wins. Management highlighted key contract wins of the past twelve months including the $544 million GFSR contract, nearly $50 million of Army SATCOM solutions, and numerous NG911 awards, including Massachusetts, Washington, and North Central Texas. These awards will not only drive future operating results but are a testament
Recurring Revenue. ISG highlighted its goal of reaching $150 million in recurring revenue. The Company had recurring revenue of $125 million in 2023, a 16% uplift from 2022. ISG is already off to a good start in 2024 as approximately half of the Company’s $64.3 million of first quarter revenue was recurring. We believe that the Company can achieve its goal.
Poised to Capitalize on the Upcycle. With client decision timetables extending during 2023, management mitigated costs but retained key consultants in anticipation of a return to normal business trends. North America, which carries a higher margin profile than its International segment, appears poised to break out, with RGP in discussions with clients about budgets and looking at assessments.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 1, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
Haynes International (HAYN)/MARKET PERFORM – Key U.S. Regulatory Approval; Updating Estimates Schwazze (SHWZ)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Consumer Virtual Conference Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Virtual Conference Highlights
Haynes International (HAYN/$58.7) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Key U.S. Regulatory Approval; Updating Estimates Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Key U.S. regulatory approval. Haynes International announced that clearance has been obtained from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) related to the planned merger with North American Stainless, Inc. The merger remains subject to approvals from regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom and Austria. All other regulatory approvals and clearances have been obtained where the applicable authorities have asserted jurisdiction. The company continues to expect that the merger will close in the fourth calendar quarter of 2024.
Chief Operating Officer appointment. Mr. Marlin (Marty) Losch has been named Chief Operating Officer, a newly created role, and will have responsibility for all commercial and operational activities. Mr. Losch joined the company in 1988 and previously served as Vice President of Sales and Distribution. Mr. Losch has held various positions of increasing responsibility in marketing, quality engineering, and production. Mr. Losch’s expanded role should be helpful to Mr. Michael Shor, President and CEO, as Mr. Shor focuses more attention on closing the company’s merger with North American Stainless Inc, a division of Acerinox S.A. Additionally, we expect the appointment to enhance post transaction integration.
Improving Outlook. Schwazze is seeing improvement in both Colorado and New Mexico from a competitive standpoint. In Colorado, pricing continues to stabilize, which will prove positive to both the top line and gross margin dollars. In New Mexico, enhanced enforcement of illegal operators and the illicit market is beginning to produce results, which will benefit Schwazze over the longer-term, in our view.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$10.96 | Price Target: $21) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Virtual conference highlights. On June 26, the company’s CEO Bill Wilson and CFO Stuart Rosenstein presented at Noble’s Virtual Consumer/TMT conference. Mr. Wilson highlighted the company’s transformation to a digital first business, unique value proposition, favorable growth outlook and sizeable return of capital to shareholders. A replay of the company’s presentation can be viewed here.
Favorable outlook. With Q2 nearly finished, Mr. Wilson highlighted the company is on track to hit Q2 guidance, experience sequential revenue growth over Q1, and expectation to hit full year revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance. Notably, we anticipate the company will gain positive momentum and experience sequential growth in the back half of the year, as high margin political revenue kicks in.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 28, 2024
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Poised for Greater Scale and Margin Expansion GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – CRO Partnership For Clinical Trial Allows Sponsored Phase 2b Trial To Move Forward
FreightCar America (RAIL/$3.66 | Price Target: $4.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Poised for Greater Scale and Margin Expansion Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. FreightCar America, Inc. is a diversified manufacturer of railroad cars and rail car components. The company designs and manufactures a broad variety of railroad car types for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America. These include open top hoppers, covered hoppers, gondolas, and intermodal and non-intermodal flat cars. FreightCar America and its predecessors have been manufacturing railroad cars since 1901.
Unique competitive advantages. FreightCar America is a pure play manufacturer that has unique manufacturing capabilities that allow it to respond to customer orders with short lead times due to its ability to set up a production line to batch produce orders and quickly change over to the next line for a different product type. Its engineering capabilities allow it to offer tailored solutions in areas unmet by competitors.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$3.55 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CRO Partnership For Clinical Trial Allows Sponsored Phase 2b Trial To Move Forward Rating: OUTPERFORM
Partnership For BARDA-Funded Trial Announced. GeoVax announced a partnership with Allucent, a global clinical management organization (CRO), to conduct the Phase 2 clinical trial for CM04S1. The trial has been awarded approximately $357 million in funding through Project NextGen, with about $24.3 million going to GeoVax and the balance to fund the clinical trial costs. We see the partnership as an important step toward the start of the clinical trial, as well as another scientific validation for CM04S1 and the GeoVax manufacturing technologies.
The Partnership Allows The Trial To Begin As Expected. Under the grant, GeoVax is the trial sponsor with responsibility for manufacturing and providing vaccine supplies. The grant also requires a CRO to conduct the trial and manage its clinical operations. The announcement of the partnership with Allucent, a global CRO that can provide these services allows the trial to move forward with a possible starting date during summer 2024.
Key Points: – Wolfspeed is set to receive a $750 million grant from the U.S. government, boosting its shares over 30%. – The chipmaker plans a nearly 30% production capacity increase as part of a $6 billion investment strategy. – The funding aims to strengthen the U.S. semiconductor industry amid rising demand for energy-efficient technologies.
Wolfspeed, a leading manufacturer of electric vehicle (EV) chips, has announced that it will receive $750 million in government grants to support its new silicon carbide wafer manufacturing plant in North Carolina. This funding is part of the U.S. Commerce Department’s initiative to bolster domestic semiconductor production, a critical sector for the nation’s economy and technological security. Following the announcement, Wolfspeed’s stock price surged by over 30%, reflecting investor optimism about the company’s future prospects.
The Commerce Department emphasized that the preliminary funding agreement requires Wolfspeed to take steps to strengthen its balance sheet to safeguard taxpayer funds. In addition to the government grant, Wolfspeed has secured $750 million in new financing from a consortium of investment funds led by Apollo Global Management, the Baupost Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company, and Capital Group. This dual approach to funding will provide a solid financial foundation for the company’s ambitious expansion plans.
Wolfspeed specializes in producing silicon carbide chips, a more energy-efficient alternative to traditional silicon-based components. These chips are crucial for a variety of applications, including the transmission of power from electric vehicle batteries to motors, making them particularly important in the rapidly growing EV market. The company counts major automotive manufacturers such as General Motors and Mercedes-Benz among its customers, highlighting the increasing demand for advanced semiconductor technologies in the automotive sector.
As part of its strategy to enhance production capabilities, Wolfspeed is also expanding its silicon carbide device manufacturing facility in Marcy, New York, aiming to increase production capacity by nearly 30%. This expansion is a key component of its previously announced $6 billion capacity growth plan, which is designed to position Wolfspeed as a market leader in the semiconductor industry.
The recent funding announcement underscores the strategic significance of Wolfspeed’s technology, especially as the U.S. government intensifies efforts to revitalize its semiconductor industry. The company’s devices are used not only in the automotive sector but also in renewable energy systems and artificial intelligence applications. This diverse application range positions Wolfspeed well to benefit from ongoing investments in clean energy and technological innovation.
In addition to the grant and new financing, Wolfspeed anticipates receiving $1 billion in cash tax refunds from the “48D” advanced manufacturing tax credit under the Chips and Science Act. This further financial incentive underscores the government’s commitment to supporting domestic semiconductor production, especially as competition with global players intensifies.
However, despite these positive developments, Wolfspeed’s stock has faced significant challenges this year, with its value plummeting nearly 75% due to a sharp slowdown in electric vehicle demand. The company’s new 2 million-square-foot silicon carbide wafer factory in Chatham County, North Carolina, which was announced in 2022, is expected to deliver wafers by summer 2025 to meet its own chip manufacturing needs.
As Wolfspeed moves forward with these strategic initiatives, the company is poised to play a critical role in shaping the future of the semiconductor industry in the U.S., driving innovations in electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.
Key Points: – S&P 500 hits an intraday record high driven by strong performance from chip stocks, with Nvidia and Apple leading the charge. – Investors focus on upcoming corporate earnings reports from major companies like Bank of America and Netflix, as well as key economic data. – Boeing and Caterpillar stocks drag on the Dow due to job cuts and rating downgrades, while the broader market shows cautious optimism.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs on Monday, buoyed by a rally in chip stocks and positive market sentiment as investors prepared for a week filled with critical corporate earnings reports and important economic data. The S&P 500 achieved an intraday record high, continuing the momentum it gained from last week’s solid performance. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq also rose as tech stocks, particularly Nvidia and Apple, saw substantial gains.
Nvidia’s stock rose by 2.2%, while Apple gained 1.6%, propelling an index of semiconductor companies to its highest point in over two months. The strength of these companies underscored the resilience of the technology sector, which has continued to lead market gains throughout 2024. With the semiconductor index posting significant growth, the technology sector contributed heavily to the S&P 500’s rise, with five out of eleven sectors inching higher.
Despite the overall strength of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled due to underperformance from major industrial stocks. Caterpillar, a bellwether for the industrial sector, fell by 3% after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley from “equal weight” to “underweight.” Boeing also faced challenges, as the company’s stock slipped 2.4% after announcing a larger-than-expected third-quarter loss, job cuts, and a delay in the delivery of its 777X jet.
As corporate earnings season kicks into full gear, investors are eagerly awaiting results from major companies including Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, and Netflix. Analysts are projecting year-over-year third-quarter earnings growth of 4.9% for the S&P 500. Last week, bank earnings set a positive tone for the earnings season, with JPMorgan delivering strong results that injected optimism into the market.
However, concerns remain regarding high stock valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at nearly 22 times forward earnings, significantly higher than its long-term average of 15.7. As corporate results roll in, companies will need to deliver strong numbers to justify the elevated stock prices, making this earnings season a pivotal moment for the market.
In addition to earnings reports, investors are keenly watching for crucial economic data, particularly the September retail sales figures due to be released on Thursday. These figures are expected to provide insight into the financial health of U.S. consumers, a key factor influencing market sentiment.
On the monetary policy front, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari made headlines by suggesting that modest interest-rate cuts could be on the horizon as inflation nears the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Similarly, Fed Governor Christopher Waller is set to provide further insights into the Fed’s stance on interest rates. While investors have scaled back expectations for a large interest-rate cut, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows an 84.2% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Fed’s November meeting.
While tech stocks soared, other sectors showed more caution. Boeing’s job cuts and delivery delays, alongside Caterpillar’s rating downgrade, weighed on the Dow, dragging the index down by 0.10%. Meanwhile, energy stocks took a hit as oil prices declined, with the energy sector slipping 0.4%. On the other hand, defense stocks such as Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin saw gains amid rising geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s missile launch against Israel.
In contrast, B. Riley Financial experienced a significant 20% jump after announcing a deal to sell its Great American Group unit to Oaktree Capital for $386 million, reflecting optimism in the financial sector.
Despite these mixed performances, the overall market remains cautiously optimistic as traders brace for a critical week that will provide further clues about the strength of corporate America and the broader U.S. economy.
LOS ALTOS, Calif., Oct. 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Unicycive Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: UNCY), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing therapies for patients with kidney disease (the “Company” or “Unicycive”), today announced that a poster presentation on oxylanthanum carbonate (OLC) was selected for a Late-Breaker session at the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Kidney Week 2024. Unicycive will also deliver three additional poster presentations on OLC and UNI-494. The conference will take place October 24-27, 2024 in San Diego, CA.
Late Breaking Science Poster:
Title:
Effects of Oxylanthanum Carbonate in Patients Receiving Maintenance Hemodialysis with Hyperphosphatemia
Lead Author:
Geoffrey A. Block, MD, FASN, Associate Chief Medical Officer & Senior Vice President, Clinical Research & Medical Affairs, U.S. Renal Care
Session Title:
Late-Breaking Science Posters [LB-PO]
Poster Board:
#TH-PO1188
Date/Time:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 from 10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. PT
Three additional poster presentations:
Title:
Intravenous UNI-494 Slows the Progression or Halts/Reverses Acute Kidney Injury When Administered After Ischemia/Reperfusion in Rats
Saturday, October 26, 2024 from 10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. PT
Title:
UNI-494 Phase I Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics
Lead Author:
Guru Reddy, PH.D., Vice President of Preclinical R&D, Unicycive
Session Title:
AKI: Clinical, Outcomes, and Trials – Management
Poster Board:
#SA-PO036
Date/Time:
Saturday, October 26, 2024 from 10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. PT
About Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC)
Oxylanthanum carbonate is a next-generation lanthanum-based phosphate binding agent utilizing proprietary nanoparticle technology being developed for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). OLC has over forty issued and granted patents globally. Its potential best-in-class profile may have meaningful patient adherence benefits over currently available treatment options as it requires a lower pill burden for patients in terms of number and size of pills per dose that are swallowed instead of chewed. Based on a survey conducted in 2022, Nephrologists stated that the greatest unmet need in the treatment of hyperphosphatemia with phosphate binders is a lower pill burden and better patient compliance.1 The global market opportunity for treating hyperphosphatemia is projected to be in excess of $2.5 billion in 2023, with the United States accounting for more than $1 billion of that total. Despite the availability of several FDA-cleared medications, 75 percent of U.S. dialysis patients fail to achieve the target phosphorus levels recommended by published medical guidelines.
Unicycive is seeking FDA approval of OLC via the 505(b)(2) regulatory pathway. As part of the clinical development program, two clinical studies were conducted in over 100 healthy volunteers. The first study was a dose-ranging Phase I study to determine safety and tolerability. The second study was a randomized, open-label, two-way crossover bioequivalence study to establish pharmacodynamic bioequivalence between OLC and Fosrenol. Based on the results of the bioequivalence study, pharmacodynamic (PD) bioequivalence of OLC to Fosrenol was established. A pivotal clinical trial was also conducted in CKD patients on hemodialysis that achieved the study objective and established favorable tolerability of OLC at clinically effective doses.
Fosrenol® is a registered trademark of Shire International Licensing BV. 1Reason Research, LLC 2022 survey. Results here.
About Hyperphosphatemia
Hyperphosphatemia is a serious medical condition that occurs in nearly all patients with End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). If left untreated, hyperphosphatemia leads to secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT), which then results in renal osteodystrophy (a condition similar to osteoporosis and associated with significant bone disease, fractures and bone pain); cardiovascular disease with associated hardening of arteries and atherosclerosis (due to deposition of excess calcium-phosphorus complexes in soft tissue). Importantly, hyperphosphatemia is independently associated with increased mortality for patients with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. Based on available clinical data to date, over 80% of patients show signs of cardiovascular calcification by the time they become dependent on dialysis.
Dialysis patients are already at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (because of underlying diseases such as diabetes and hypertension), and hyperphosphatemia further exacerbates this. Treatment of hyperphosphatemia is aimed at lowering serum phosphate levels via two means: (1) restricting dietary phosphorus intake; and (2) using, on a daily basis, and with each meal, oral phosphate binding drugs that facilitate fecal elimination of dietary phosphate rather than its absorption from the gastrointestinal tract into the bloodstream.
About UNI-494
UNI-494 is a novel nicotinamide ester derivative and a selective ATP-sensitive mitochondrial potassium channel activator. Mitochondrial dysfunction plays a critical role in the progression of acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease. UNI-494 has a novel mechanism of action that restores mitochondrial function and may be beneficial for the treatment of several diseases including kidney disease. Unicycive has completed enrollment in the UNI-494 Phase 1 dose-ranging safety study in healthy volunteers in the United Kingdom, and expects to report results in the third quarter of 2024. UNI-494 is protected by issued patent(s) in the U.S. and Europe and a wide range of patent applications worldwide. UNI-494 has been granted orphan drug designation (ODD) by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the prevention of Delayed Graft Function (DGF) in kidney transplant patients.
About Acute Kidney Injury
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is defined as a sudden loss of kidney function that is determined based on increased serum creatinine levels and decreased urine output and is limited to a duration of 7 days. The primary causes of AKI include sepsis, ischemia, hypoxia, and drug-induced nephrotoxicity. Delayed Graft Function is a type of acute kidney injury that occurs in the first week after kidney transplantation. AKI is estimated to occur in 20-200 per million population in the community, 7-18% of patients in the hospital, and approximately 50% of patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Importantly AKI is associated with morbidity and mortality; an estimated 2 million people die of AKI worldwide every year whereas survivors of AKI are at increased risk of chronic kidney disease and end stage renal disease.
About Unicycive Therapeutics
Unicycive Therapeutics is a biotechnology company developing novel treatments for kidney diseases. Unicycive’s lead drug candidate, oxylanthanum carbonate (OLC), is a novel investigational phosphate binding agent being developed for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in chronic kidney disease patients on dialysis. UNI-494 is a patent-protected new chemical entity in clinical development for the treatment of conditions related to acute kidney injury. For more information, please visit Unicycive.com and follow us on LinkedIn, X, and YouTube.
Forward-looking statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified using words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “forecast,” “estimated” and “intend” or other similar terms or expressions that concern Unicycive’s expectations, strategy, plans or intentions. These forward-looking statements are based on Unicycive’s current expectations and actual results could differ materially. There are several factors that could cause actual events to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, clinical trials involve a lengthy and expensive process with an uncertain outcome, and results of earlier studies and trials may not be predictive of future trial results; our clinical trials may be suspended or discontinued due to unexpected side effects or other safety risks that could preclude approval of our product candidates; risks related to business interruptions, which could seriously harm our financial condition and increase our costs and expenses; dependence on key personnel; substantial competition; uncertainties of patent protection and litigation; dependence upon third parties; and risks related to failure to obtain FDA clearances or approvals and noncompliance with FDA regulations. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including: the uncertainties related to market conditions and other factors described more fully in the section entitled ‘Risk Factors’ in Unicycive’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and other periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak only as of the date hereof, and Unicycive specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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