Comstock Mining (LODE) – Sharpening its Focus to Enhance Shareholder Value

Wednesday, July 22, 2020


Comstock Mining (LODE)

Sharpening its Focus to Enhance Shareholder Value


Comstock Mining Inc is a mining company with a focus on gold and silver deposits in the Comstock and Silver City mining districts in Nevada. Its operations are divided into two segments, namely mining and real estate. Its mining projects include The Lucerne Resource area, the Dayton Resource area, the Spring Valley exploration target, the Northern Extension, Northern Targets and Occidental areas. The Real Estate segment involves land, real estate rental properties and a hotel, restaurant & bar provided by the Gold Hill Hotel located in Gold Hill, Nevada just south of Virginia City and the Daney Ranch, located just south of Silver City. The majority revenues are generated from the real estate segment.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We are initiating coverage of Comstock Mining Inc. with an Outperform rating and a price target of $4.50 per share. In our view, Comstock Mining offers investors significant upside potential as the company executes on its plan to unlock the value of its assets through a recent corporate realignment to focus on mining related activities in the Nevada Comstock and Silver City mining districts. Additionally, the company owns an interest in a growing clean mining technology business with a focus on mercury remediation.

    Realignment enhances corporate focus on core assets. We expect Comstock to complete the sale of non-core real estate assets to an opportunity zone fund during the third quarter which is expected to provide roughly $10.1 million in proceeds to extinguish debt and fund exploration of the company’s Dayton mining properties and other growth initiatives. The company also expects to receive ~$400 thousand in October 2020 and …


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

DLH (DLHC) – New COVID-19 Business; Virtual NDRS

Wednesday, July 22, 2020


DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

New COVID-19 Business; Virtual NDRS

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    COVID-19 Contracts. Yesterday, DLH announced it recently had been awarded multiple task orders and contracts related to COVID-19 testing and analysis. The new awards are expected to add at least $15 million of incremental revenue, with the majority anticipated in calendar 2020. We estimate the additional revenue could add some $1 million of operating income.

    Contract Scope. The task orders encompass the evaluation of various treatment alternatives and the impact of COVID-19 on other chronic conditions, as well as the development of health communication tools to exchange emerging data among numerous scientific stakeholders. These efforts are being …



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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Genprex (GNPX) – NIH Grant Provides Validation for Diabetes Program

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Genprex Inc.(GNPX)

NIH Grant Provides Validation for Diabetes Program

Genprex Inc is a U.S.-based clinical-stage gene therapy company. It is engaged in developing a new approach to treating cancer based on its novel proprietary technology platform, including initial product candidate, Oncoprex immunogene therapy. Oncoprex, which has a multimodal mechanism of action whereby it interrupts cell signaling pathways that cause replication and proliferation of cancer cells, re-establishes pathways for apoptosis in cancer cells and modulates the immune response against cancer cells.

Ahu Demir, Ph. D., Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Awarded an NIH Grant. Yesterday, Genprex (GNPX) announced that a grant of $2.59 million awarded to the company by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. This grant will fund the ongoing preclinical research for proof-of-principle studies in preparation for human gene therapy clinical trials of GPX-002 in type 1 diabetes.

    Diverse portfolio with large market potential. Genprex’s lead drug candidate Oncoprex is currently being evaluated in combination with erlotinib for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Phase 2 clinical study. The company plans to assess Oncoprex in combination with Tagrisso and Keytruda, the trials are expected to commence in the next …



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) – Refinancing Generates $5.6 Million Gain

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)

Refinancing Generates $5.6 Million Gain

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp., an international shipping company, provides marine dry bulk transportation services through the ownership and operation of dry bulk vessels. Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is the only pure-play Capesize shipping company listed in the US capital markets. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of 10 Capesize vessels, with total capacity of approximately 1,748,581 dwt and an average fleet age of about 9.8 years. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands with executive offices in Athens, Greece and an office in Hong Kong. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP” and class A warrants under “SHIPW”.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

  • Debt maturity settled at a discount generates gain of $5.6 million.  An unexpected positive outcome was realized when secured debt of $29.1 million on the Geniuship and Gloriuship due at the end of July was settled for $23.5 million. The discount will generate a one-time gain of $5.6 million (~$0.19/share) in 3Q2020.
  • New financing funded debt retirement. A new debt facility of $22.5 million funded the payoff of maturing debt. The five-year facility will be due in July 2025 and the interest rate will be fixed. Pricing and amortization are limited at this point, but the net result is longer term financing at a reasonable cost and …


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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Will Digital Media And Technology Stocks Take A Breather?

Double and Triple-Digit Returns Despite the Pandemic

Digital Media & Technology stocks have been on a tear after a soft pullback early in the second quarter. As Q2 progressed, the S&P 500 increased by 20%, while Digital Media & Technology stocks soared, with digital media stocks up 24%, social media stocks up 37%, marketing tech stocks up 48%, and ad tech up a whopping 94%. These all significantly outperformed the market.  In fact, not a single stock in the four sectors was down in the second quarter. Not only did no stock in this universe decline, but many saw double and triple-digit returns. Including the Leaf Group (LEAF,
+173%), Inuvo (INUV, +126%), Spotify (SPOT, +113%), The Trade Desk (TTD, +111%), and Cardlytics (CDLX, +100%).  Snapchat (SNAP, +97%)
nearly doubled as well. 

Through the first half of the year, the S&P 500 finished down 4%, while the larger cap, but more narrowly focused, Dow 30 Industrial Index decreased by 10%.  During the same time, the FAANG stocks all finished up in the first half of the year:  the stocks of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google finished +11%, +24%, +49%, +41%, and +6%, respectively. 

Gainers

Are the Digital Media & Technology stocks headed for a bubble, or can the momentum keep going? Noble Capital Market’s Media Analyst, Michael Kupinski, indicated that the strong performance thus far has been fueled by fundamentals. Marketing tech stocks, with their recurring revenue business models, fared best in the first quarter and first half of the year.  Of the 11 companies in the marketing tech sector he follows, 9 of the stocks finished up in the first half of the year, led by Hubspot (HUBS, +42%), Adobe (ADBE, +32%) and SVMK Inc. (a.k.a. Survey Monkey (SVMK, +32%).  He expects this group to post the strongest year-over-year revenue results compared to the advertising-based businesses that make up the ad tech, social media, and digital media sectors.

Losers

On the other end of the spectrum, 7 of 11 ad tech stocks finished down in the first half of the year.  Investors are likely wary of the growth prospects for companies whose businesses are based on ad spend.  Digital advertising declines in the 30%-40% range were common in the month of April, slightly better than traditional media advertising declines.  However, it would appear that digital advertising trends improved significantly in May and June, far better than the advertising improvements at traditional media companies. 

Looking Forward

Can the strong performance in these sectors continue? Kupinski indicated that as revenue visibility improves, so too should M&A.  If visibility doesn’t improve and fundamentals remain tepid, it may accelerate consolidation trends, as companies realize they need to get bigger to compete with the walled gardens of Google, Facebook, and Amazon.  According to Mergermarket’s, Global & Regional M&A Report, the number of M&A deals fell by 39% sequentially to 2,630 deals in 2Q20 from 4,308 deals in 1Q20, and deal values fell by 48% to $308.9B in 2Q20 from $592.6B in 1Q20.  This is not too surprising given the onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused most companies to focus on preserving cash rather than spending it.  M&A is a tricky proposition in any economic environment, but especially so in one where there is very little visibility. 

Where There was Consolidation

While deal volume fell considerably, it is interesting to note that M&A deal value actually increased in 2Q 2020 despite significantly fewer deals where purchase price information was available.  Noble tracked 36 deals in 1Q 2020 with purchase prices available compared to only 15 deals where purchase prices were available in 2Q 2020.  However, there were significantly larger deals in 2Q 2020 than in 1Q 2020:  total deal value in 2Q 2020 was $12.9B vs. $6.4B in 1Q 2020.  More than half of the deal value in 2Q 2020 was attributable to the $7.5B acquisition of GrubHub by Just Eat Takeaway.  Other large deals included Zynga’s $1.9B acquisition of Peak Games and The Stagwell Group’s $1.6B acquisition of ad agency MDC Partners.  Noble did not track any deals greater than $1B in 1Q 2020.

In their second-quarter commentary on broader U.S. M&A activity, MergerMarket noted that M&A in the technology sector started to rebound in May and June.  With fundamentals showing signs of improvement in the Digital Tech sector, Kupinski expects mergers and acquisitions to increase in the second half of 2020, which should continue to keep investors interested in the sector and lead to good stock performance for the balance of the year.   

 

Suggested Reading:

Will Broadcast Mergers and Acquisitions Surge?

More Accurate than Polls to Gauge Election Outcomes

Cashing In

 

Enjoy the Benefits of Premium Channelchek Content at No Cost

 

Sources:

Are Media Investors Too Pessimistic?

Global and Regional M&A Report

 

Photo Credit: blogtrepreneur.com

NIH Awards Research Grant for Diabetes Gene Therapy Technology Licensed by Genprex

National Institutes of Health (NIH) Awards Research Grant of $2.59 Million to University of Pittsburgh for Diabetes Gene Therapy Technology Licensed by Genprex

AUSTIN, Texas — (July 21, 2020) — Genprex, Inc. (“Genprex” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: GNPX), a clinical-stage gene therapy company developing potentially life-changing technologies for patients with cancer and diabetes, today announced that Dr. George K. Gittes, MD of the University of Pittsburgh, the lead researcher that developed the Company’s potentially curative diabetes gene therapy, was awarded a grant of $2.59 million from the National Institutes of Health (“NIH”) National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. The grant will assist Dr. Gittes’s development for his research project titled, “Alpha Cell Conversion to Beta Cells in Non-human Primates” and will build upon his accumulating groundbreaking gene therapy work toward finding a cure for diabetes. In this project, Dr. Gittes’ research team will conduct important proof-of-principle studies in non-human primates as the last steps in preparation for human gene therapy clinical trials. This technology is the subject of an exclusive license agreement entered into between Genprex and the University of Pittsburgh in February of 2020.

“We are excited to receive this funding to support our research in diabetic primates as we move toward human clinical trials,” said Dr. George Gittes, Co-Scientific Director and Professor of Surgery at the UPMC (University of Pittsburgh Medical Center) Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh and the lead researcher behind the diabetes gene therapy. “We saw encouraging data in our preclinical mice studies, where the gene therapy reprogrammed pancreatic cells to restore normal blood glucose levels in diabetic mice for approximately four months, which could translate to decades in humans. More recently, preliminary results in non-human primates (monkeys) has also been very promising.”

Dr. Gittes’ gene therapy for diabetes, which Genprex refers to as “GPX-002,” uses a novel infusion process comprised of an endoscope and an adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector to deliver Pdx1 and MafA genes to the pancreas. The genes express proteins that transform alpha cells in the pancreas into functional beta-like cells, which can produce insulin but are distinct enough from beta cells to evade the body’s immune system.

Diabetes affects approximately 10 percent of the U.S. population, or more than 34 million people. The diabetes gene therapy could not only become a new treatment option for millions of diabetes patients who need insulin replacement therapy, but it holds the potential to provide long-term effectiveness, or may even be a cure, for diabetic patients.

Dr. Gittes is the inventor of the gene therapy for diabetes, and he is eligible to receive royalties on this technology in the future.

About Genprex, Inc.

Genprex, Inc. is a clinical-stage gene therapy company developing potentially life-changing technologies for patients with cancer and diabetes. Genprex’s technologies are designed to administer disease-fighting genes to provide new treatment options for large patient populations with cancer and diabetes who currently have limited treatment options. Genprex works with world-class institutions and collaborators to in-license and develop drug candidates to further its pipeline of gene therapies in order to provide novel treatment approaches. The Company’s lead product candidate, GPX-001 (quaratusugene ozeplasmid), is being evaluated as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). GPX-001 has a multimodal mechanism of action that has been shown to interrupt cell signaling pathways that cause replication and proliferation of cancer cells; re-establish pathways for apoptosis, or programmed cell death, in cancer cells; and modulate the immune response against cancer cells. GPX-001 has also been shown to block mechanisms that create drug resistance. In January 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted Fast Track Designation for GPX-001 for NSCLC in combination therapy with osimertinib (AstraZeneca’s Tagrisso®) for patients with EFGR mutations whose tumors progressed after treatment with osimertinib alone. For more information, please visit the Company’s web site at www.genprex.com or follow Genprex on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn.

The project described in this press release is being supported by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive And Kidney Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01DK120377. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Forward-Looking Statements

Statements contained in this press release regarding matters that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the effect of Genprex’s product candidates, alone and in combination with other therapies, on cancer and diabetes, regarding potential, current and planned clinical trials, regarding the Company’s future growth and financial status and regarding our commercial partnerships and intellectual property licenses. Risks that contribute to the uncertain nature of the forward-looking statements include the presence and level of the effect of our product candidates, alone and in combination with other therapies, on cancer; the timing and success of our clinical trials and planned clinical trials of GPX-001, alone and in combination with targeted therapies and/or immunotherapies, and whether our other potential product candidates, including GPX-002, our gene therapy in diabetes, advance into clinical trials; the success of our strategic partnerships, including those relating to manufacturing of our product candidates; the timing and success at all of obtaining FDA approval of GPX-001 and our other potential product candidates including whether we receive fast track or similar regulatory designations; costs associated with developing our product candidates and whether patents will ever be issued under patent applications that are the subject of our license agreements. These and other risks and uncertainties are described more fully under the caption “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in our filings and reports with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak only as of the date on which they were made. We undertake no obligation to update such statements to reflect events that occur or circumstances that exist after the date on which they were made.

Genprex, Inc.
(877) 774-GNPX (4679)

Investor Relations
GNPX Investor Relations
(877) 774-GNPX (4679) ext. #2
investors@genprex.com

Media Contact
Genprex Media Relations
(877) 774-GNPX (4679) ext. #3
media@genprex.com

Podcast and Audio Platforms are Becoming Valuable Properties

As Listeners Tune in to Radio Frequencies Less Frequently M&A Activity in Alternatives Abound

Recently we’ve become accustomed to seeing waves of merger and acquisition activity in brokerage firms, healthcare, fintech, and social media. However, there’s one media sector getting less attention despite its own wave of M&A. Technology means choice, and the growing array of audio platforms provide us with more alternatives every day. Audio news, education, and entertainment options are almost limitless and growing. The hit-or-miss days of flipping through radio stations in your car, hoping to find entertainment, are now in the rear view mirror. Podcasts, which are digital audio files made accessible through streaming platforms and downloads to personal electronic devices, are still on the rise. Whatever the listener is interested in, whether it’s a comedic reprieve after a laughter-less workday or an informative discussion on an upcoming election, it is now available to listeners wherever they are. If there is an audience, chances are there is someone looking to reach out to that audience. As consumers’ choices are evolving, the power of traditional radio is being drowned out by podcasts.

Turning Up The Volume

The upward trending use of podcasts in the U.S. now adds to more than 75% of Americans regularly exposed. This is a 25% increase in just five years; it is expected that those numbers will rise as adoption reaches full saturation. With over 1,000,000 podcasts available, nearly 40% of Americans listen to podcasts on a monthly basis. Traditional radio listenership has declined by 5% over the past year, while podcasts have gained 5% of listeners. As Gen Z begins to take up a larger portion of entertainment consumption, the audio industry is evolving along with the consumer market. Companies are recognizing these trends, and Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) for podcasts and audio platforms are increasing in frequency and size. Content is king, and as the audience preference shifts towards podcasts, large audio platforms such as Spotify and Sirius XM are making their moves.

Where do we stand now? What is driving this move towards podcasts? What are the effects of the current lockdown on podcast growth?  What can we expect moving forward for M&As with radio and audio platforms?

Transitions from Transistors

In short, we can expect podcasting popularity to grow while traditional radio will become more marginalized. What is the driving force towards podcasts? Podcasts are a multifaceted and unique way for listeners to receive information or entertainment at their disposal. One of the major draws to podcasts is the customizability for listeners. As previously mentioned, there are over 1,000,000 podcasts in a multitude of categories. The number of podcasts is up 45% from 2015, offering a wider range of topics to grasp a broad array of listeners. On top of the sheer numbers, listeners are drawn to the ease of podcasts. Time is valuable. Increasing technology and improving platforms have made podcasts easily accessible. 22% of podcast listening happens in transit, 11% at work, and 8% while exercising. With the current pandemic, all three of those categories have been affected. The US has seen a decline of 20% in podcast listeners, with expectations of turning things around once their routines begin to normalize. However, globally there has been a 42% increase in listeners. How are podcasts maintaining listeners during COVID?

The US has seen declines due to its reliance on listeners commuting. Once life begins to normalize, the numbers are expected to return to normal. Jobs and gyms are closed, but the overall stability in listeners is due to the 52% that listen to podcasts at home. Certain categories have seen an increase in listening, such as self-improvement, health and fitness, and medicine. Listeners are looking to better themselves during this time, and podcasts can adapt to the consumer’s needs.

Segue to Opportunity

With the significant growth in listenership comes advertising. Madison Avenue is waking up to this powerful audience. In 2019, US podcast ad revenue increased over 45% from the previous year to $708 million. Despite the pandemic, podcast ad revenue is expected to grow about another 15% in 2020. Audio companies are recognizing these trends and are beginning to develop podcasts or seek M&A activity.  

Last year Spotify shocked the podcast world by acquiring Gimlet, the digital media company that focuses on producing podcasts for a whopping $230 million. This was a huge leap for the legitimacy of the podcast craze. Prior to this acquisition, the most comparable deal was made in 2018 when iHeartMedia acquired Stuff Media for $55 million. Spotify’s acquisition marked the largest deal in the industry by a large margin. That is until recently when SiriusXM announced it would acquire Stitcher from E.W. Scripps for $325 million, setting another milestone. Stitcher had $72.5 million in revenue in 2019, yet Sirius XM was inclined to pay 4.5 times revenues for this money-losing company.

Take-Away

So what can we expect for future M&A deals in podcasting? The steady increase of listeners and the potential profitability of podcasts as advertising dollars are focused in the sector and are likely to fuel investments in podcasting.  Spotify and SiriusXM have set a standard, raising the valuation of podcast producing platforms. As one of the fastest-growing audio platforms, we can expect large players to have podcast business as a part of their audio offerings.

 

Suggested Reading:

Will Broadcast Mergers and Acquisitions Surge?

Will There be an Explosion of New Acquisitions?

Are Media Investors too Pessimistic?

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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Virtual NDR Meeting Reinforces Favorable Dredging Outlook

Monday, July 20, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Virtual NDR Meeting Reinforces Favorable Dredging Outlook

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    We hosted a virtual NDR meeting last week with Lasse Petterson, President/CEO and Mark Marinko, CFO, that showcased the favorable dredging market outlook and GLDD’s strong market position.  A link should be available shortly at www.channelchek.com.

    Watch the Virtual Road Show Replay

    No change in favorable dredging market outlook even though competition has increased. Recent backlog trend has been down, but smaller projects have successfully sustained operating results. News on several large bid opportunities and Jacksonville C in 3Q/4Q2020 should …



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

U.S. Rare Earth Mining gets Boost from Government

U.S. Capitalism and Public Funds to Reduce Reliance on China Rare Earth Production

What are Rare Earth Minerals?

Rare earth minerals are getting more attention these days. Rare earth elements are a group of 17 chemical elements that have a variety of industrial and defense uses. They include yttrium and scandium and 15 elements in the lanthanum series. Lanthanum is used to prevent corrosion in EV batteries and is used in optical lens treatments. While the actual elements may not be rare, it is often difficult to find them in sufficient concentrations for economical extraction, and they require extensive processing. Beyond rare earths, minerals that are becoming of increasing importance include cobalt, natural graphite, and lithium, many of which are critical elements in battery technologies and needed in the transition away from fossil fuels.   

China is a Leading Producer

 According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, China accounted for 63.0% of rare earth mineral production in 2019 and 35.4% of rare earth mineral reserves.  Conversely, the United States accounted for 12.4% of rare earth mineral production in 2019 and 1.1% of rare earth mineral reserves. With respect to natural graphite, cobalt, and lithium, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia accounted for 60.2%, 64%, and 52.9% of production in 2019, respectively. 

Reducing Reliance on Imports

 The United States is increasingly dependent on imports. China now dominates the production of many critical minerals, including graphite and magnesium. China is the third-largest supplier of natural resources to the United States behind Canada and Mexico. While Australia is the largest producer of lithium, China has been increasing its influence in the global lithium market by making deals to secure future supplies. As part of its strategy to ensure secure and reliable supplies of critical minerals, the U.S. Department of the Interior identified 35 critical minerals, including cobalt, graphite, lithium, and the rare earth elements group. The U.S. Government is planning to fund rare earths projects to reduce reliance on China.

The Invisible Hand

 On July 15, 2020, rare-earth minerals producer MP Materials announced an agreement to merge with Fortress Value Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition corporation (SPAC). Along with a New York Stock Exchange listing, the new company to be named MP Materials, will have a post-transaction equity value of $1.5 billion. Ironically, MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility, which opened in 1952 as a uranium producer, pivoted to become one of the largest suppliers of rare earth minerals, but closed in 2002 as environmental restrictions and foreign imports made it difficult to compete. The facility underwent various ownership changes and reopened in 2017 under MP Materials’ ownership. One can see some parallels to domestic uranium producers today. However, there appears to be an awakening among policymakers of the dangers of dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals, especially those that are adversarial to the United States. We anticipate more activity in the rare earths and critical minerals space as capital flows to attractive opportunities, including growing demand for rare earth and critical minerals, scarce domestic supply sources, and increasingly supportive government policies.

 

Suggested Reading:

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and Rare Earth Metals from the Sea Floor Eyed

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Economic Activity and Trickle Down

Virtual
Power Plants

Each event in our popular Virtual Road Shows Series has maximum capacity of 100 investors online. To take part, listen to and perhaps get your questions answered, see which virtual investor meeting intrigues you 
here.

 

Sources:

MP
Materials, a Leading Producer of Rare Earth Materials, to Be Listed on NYSE Through Merger with Fortress Value Acquisition Corp.
, News Release, MP Materials, July 15, 2020.

Rare Earth Materials Producer MP Materials to be Listed Via Merger with Blank-Check
Company Fortress Value Acquisition
, MarketWatch, Ciara Linnane, July 15, 2020.

Metals
Needed for Carbon Neutrality in Short Supply
, Institute for Energy Research, IER, July 2, 2019.

Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, 69th Edition, BP, 2020

The
Collapse of American Rare Earth Mining – and Lessons Learned
, DefenseNews, Reagan Defense Forum, Jeffery A. Green, November 12, 2019.

Factbox: Rare Earths Projects Under Development in U.S., Reuters, Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Pravin Char, April 22, 2020.

A
Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals
, Executive Office of the President, Executive Order 13817, December 20, 2017.

Final
List of Critical Minerals 2018
, Office of the Secretary, Interior, May 18, 2018.

The
New Energy Era: The Impact of Critical Minerals on National Security
, Markets Insider, Nicholas Lepan, April 28, 2020.

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) – Raises Additional Capital

Monday, July 20, 2020

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT)

Raises Additional Capital

FAT Brands Inc is a multi-brand restaurant franchising company. It develops, markets, and acquires predominantly fast casual restaurant concepts. The company provides turkey burgers, chicken Sandwiches, chicken tenders, burgers, ribs, wrap sandwiches, and others. Its brand portfolio comprises Fatburger, Buffalo’s Cafe and Express, and Ponderosa and Bonanza. The company’s overall footprint covers nearly 32 countries. Fatburger generates maximum revenue for the company.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Capital Raise.  FAT Brands raised $8.0 million, net, in additional capital through the sale of 360,000 shares of 8.25% Series B Cumulative Preferred stock at $25 per share. Attached to the Series B shares were a total of 1,899,000 warrants each to purchase one common share at an exercise price of $5.00 per share. Both the preferred shares and the warrants are expected to trade under the symbols FATBP and FATBW.

    Use of Proceeds. Approximately $2.6 million of the proceeds will be used to redeem a portion of the outstanding Series A preferred stock, with another $300,000 used to pay dividends on the Series A-1 preferred stock. The remainder will be used for …




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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Energy Fuels (UUUU) – Broadening Its Portfolio to Include Rare Earth Minerals

Monday, July 20, 2020

Energy Fuels (UUUU)(EFR:CA)

Broadening Its Portfolio to Include Rare Earth Minerals

As of April 24, 2020, Noble Capital Markets research on Energy Fuels is published under ticker symbols (UUUU and EFR:CA). The price target is in USD and based on ticker symbol UUUU. Research reports dated prior to April 24, 2020 may not follow these guidelines and could account for a variance in the price target.
Energy Fuels is the largest uranium producer in the U.S. and holds more production capacity and uranium resources than any other U.S. producer. The Company also produces vanadium. Headquartered in Colorado, Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch ISR Facility in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Facility in Texas. The producing White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill in the U.S. and has a licensed capacity of 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year. Nichols Ranch is in production and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. Alta Mesa is currently on standby. Energy Fuels also owns several licensed and developed uranium and vanadium mines on standby and other projects in development

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Advancing rare earths strategy. Energy Fuels contemplates minor modifications to its operations to enable the processing of uranium and rare earth ores at its White Mesa mill. Ores would be sourced from third parties, either through ore purchase, tolling, or other arrangements, and Energy Fuels would seek to produce concentrates, while also recycling and recovering uranium from the ores. The concentrates could be sold to third party rare earth element (REE) oxide separation and recovery facilities and/or refined, separated, and recovered at White Mesa. Additional investment could be required to enhance White Mesa’s readiness and capability in this respect.

    Energy Fuels’ rare earth strategy is timely. We note that rare earth minerals producer MP Materials recently announced an agreement to merge with a special purpose acquisition corporation (SPAC). Along with a New York Stock Exchange listing, the new company to be named MP Materials, is expected to have …



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Why “News Investors” Outperform the News Reporters

Investment Journalists would make Horrific Fund Managers

Tomorrow I’m going to pack a lunch before I head to work. I’ve learned that I can predict with a high degree of certainty that between 11:30 and 12:30, I’m going to feel hungry enough to benefit from lunch. That isn’t the only forecast I’ll make tomorrow. I’m going to estimate my car ride to the office will take 25 minutes with a 10% margin of error, and that the air conditioning in the office will be set at a temperature requiring something warmer than I’ll wear in the car. There are several other predictions I’ll make before heading to work that will make my day more rewarding, but I’m not going to predict the stock market. That would be a waste of time.

As a former mutual fund manager, I had my finger on the trigger of $50B. I’d head into Manhattan before dawn and determine how best to react if/when certain events occur. I wouldn’t try to predict or make a call about the event. Instead, scenario analysis and if-this-then-that planning kept the fund among the top five performers in its category. This lack of prediction (or predicting various scenarios and reactions) included economic numbers, Fed testimony, earnings reports, everything. After all, if these were predictable, the market would have already built them into prices. So the reaction was what I focused on, that’s where prediction for me was most profitable. I made sure I had a firm understanding of the expectations of others. If a majority of investors was sure of something, then there could only be two outcomes. They could be right, or they could be disappointed; either way, profit was usually found leaning in the opposite direction of the masses. This is the root of the axiom “
buy the rumor and sell the fact.”

Buy the Rumor

The current “rumor” is that the pandemic will not last forever. There are multiple ways it may end; vaccine, therapeutics, a high percent of immunity, or it could die of natural causes. The market has been trading higher based on the eventual return of business without distancing. How coronavirus meets its demise doesn’t matter to the professional or individual investor. They only need to know that it is a widely held belief that it won’t be with us forever. The timing is uncertain, so until there is more clarity when it will disappear, the uptrend in stocks may continue. The clear end to the virus may wind up being the end of the relentlessly positive equity market.

This thinking is, in large part, how successful contrarians execute their strategy. It’s also why forecasters are often more wrong than right. They haven’t accepted that there is the human factor that buys and sells on future expectations. They still retain the notion that believes the market will react off news as though investors were blindsided by the event.  We see it on CNBC and other major outlets all the time when one of the regular talking heads is stumped because a company reports higher earnings and the stock trades off, or a payroll number is below the prior period, and the market rallies. These are not people who accept that when an economic release or event comes out as positive as expected, profit-taking usually ensues. Instead, they are professionals with a large audience that expect that if a pharmaceutical company finds a much-anticipated cure, that its stock will always go up. It is far from a given. Rumors, if resolved on expectations, become an opportunity for profit-taking, this tends to change the direction of the stock prices for a period as profit-takers undermine any strength.

Sell the Fact

Once information becomes public, it is by definition too late to be early in taking a position. Contrarian traders or “news” traders like to trade against the tone of the report. This sounds daring, but the market has been building the forthcoming set of facts into prices. If one believes the stock market is currently priced for a perfect scenario, you should consider if it will be more likely to be disappointed, even in the rare case that perfection occurs.

Traders and investors that have gone against today’s economic gloomy forecasts and been long stocks should decide on scenario strategies now, before the eventual full return to work. The market sentiment leading up to the eventual “all-clear” sign on the pandemic has been extremely positive. Even as the rate of infection rotates from state to state, the market has climbed higher. The climb has been dramatic in some industries like pharmaceutical companies in different phases of testing.  Holders of these stocks should also pre-think a plan, especially if the market price seems to have built-in a win. Some of these companies, whether they are part of the solution or not, may face severe downward pressure.

Make a Plan

Buy the rumor and sell the fact doesn’t mean to act on any half-baked expectation. It means to buy in anticipation of almost certain news/events to come, and then sell once the news has been presented, preferably with a pre-thought out plan.

It isn’t difficult to forecast the eventual end of a pandemic. The world has a long record of surviving and thriving each and every one. With this in mind, develop a plan. This is true of any Covid or non-Covid related exposure, but it’s especially pertinent today in the Covid stocks. If tomorrow a therapeutic is shown to have complete efficacy, what repositioning will you take? Both the beaten-down sectors such as hospitality and energy and so-called “Covid stocks” like communications and online retail will react sharply.

The resolution of the pandemic should quickly change investors’ buy and sell lists dramatically. Determining now what the lists will look like will reduce hesitation to act later.  The headlines of major papers have been telling us the market is overbought since the first uptick after the final March 23 route was completed. We have been in rally mode most of that time. The Nasdaq has even made new all-time highs. If the pandemic abruptly shows signs of abating, the major news outlets will be more positive about the market’s prospects. What are the chances it won’t defy these forecasters again? 

Managing Editor

Paul Hoffman

 

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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Interesting High-Grade Discovery at Tsenken Target

Friday, July 17, 2020

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)(ARU:CA)

Interesting High-Grade Discovery at Tsenken Target

As of April 24, 2020, Noble Capital Markets research on Aurania Resources is published under ticker symbols (AUIAF and ARU:CA). The price target is in USD and based on ticker symbol AUIAF. Research reports dated prior to April 24, 2020 may not follow these guidelines and could account for a variance in the price target.
Aurania Resources Ltd. is a Canada-based junior mining exploration company engaged in the identification, evaluation, acquisition, and exploration of mineral property interests, with a focus on precious metals and copper. Its flagship asset, The Lost Cities-Cutucu Project, is in southeastern Ecuador in the Province of Morona-Santiago. The company also has several minor projects in Switzerland.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Field work is progressing. Aurania’s exploration teams resumed field work in mid-June to commence mapping and soil sampling on priority targets for gold-silver, copper-gold, and copper. For the sediment-hosted copper and silver targets, the focus is on determining the mineral continuity within sedimentary layers through mapping and soil sampling in the Tsenken target area. The Tsenken N2 and N3 targets are being soil sampled and mapped in preparation for scout drilling with an ultra-light rig. A heliborne mobile geophysical survey is also being considered which could be done relatively quickly.

    Work restrictions remain. To comply with a government-mandated 50% cap on employees operating in the field or in the office at any one time, Aurania field teams operate on a two-week rotational schedule. Exploration teams are …




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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.