Ecommerce Adapts While In-Person Retail Struggles

Some Ecommerce sectors up 500% While others See Sales Cut in Half

Prior to COVID-19, the time and hassle of going to a mall compared to the convenience of online shopping were already moving consumers to e-commerce shopping. As fear of becoming infected or infecting others with a virus deadly to some grew, in-person shopping naturally declined. As the pandemic took root, the number of reported Covid cases grew. With that growth, the number of people deemed safe to congregate changed from thousands to hundreds, to tens. The combination of ease of online shopping, paired with pandemic anxiety, is a driving force in the spike in popularity of online shopping. As shipping technology and efficiency continue to develop, especially if the pandemic remains front-page news, the online shopping trend will increase at a pace that would not have otherwise occurred. Ecommerce is solidly on the winning side of the “new normal” put in place in 2020.

Background

COVID-19 has exposed the fragilities of the in-person retail industry. The United States has over 4 million confirmed cases and is closing in on 150,000 deaths. Consumers are now wary of public spaces. It is estimated that 80% of Americans now shop online. Ecommerce consumer sales are up 28% across retail sectors since earlier this year, an acceleration from 14.5% in the first quarter, which was only partially impacted by Covid.

Who’s Thriving, Who’s Diving

So, where do we stand? Are all E-commerce sectors reaping the benefits? How are small-cap companies competing with established e-commerce platforms? Is in-person retail a thing of the past?

Not all retail sectors are thriving. Some sectors that are seeing large dips in consumer sales are Jewelry & Luxury (10%), Fashion and Apparel (15%), Auto or Tools (45%), and Bags or Travel (55%). This is a result of the economic effect caused by the pandemic, and the altering in spending on goods that are deemed necessary. 96% of millennials and Gen Z’s, and 24% and 34% of Boomers and Gen X respectively, are concerned about their economic well-being during the pandemic. As such, many are spending more on stocking up items and less on more durable goods or even experiences. These shifts in spending, are leaving some retailers behind while others are thriving.

So, where are people spending their money?  Ecommerce consumer sectors such as Medical (500%), Food and Beverage (150%), Health and Wellness (80%), and Pets (50%) have soared during the shutdowns. As consumers shift, their focus on preparedness and self-care, so do their spending habits. The brick-and-mortar stores, if unable to adapt, are facing permanent closure. However, if able to adapt, consumer spending is not just benefiting mega-corporations such as Amazon, having a 26% percent jump in Q1 revenues. Small-cap companies are seeing growth, as well. For instance, 1800 Flowers indicated that in its upcoming fiscal fourth quarter, its food-centric, Harry & David business is expected to increase a whopping 90% in revenue. The company is also benefiting from gifting in its floral brand. It’s one of the companies that seems to be bucking the economic headwinds as consumers send gifts in a social distance conscience environment. Despite the pandemic, birthdays, holidays, anniversaries will all continue.

Take-Away

Bricks and mortar retailers are likely to struggle on two fronts, competition from online retailers and the generally weak economy. While the economic pace has had an adverse effect on some online retailers, the overall trend toward online shopping appears to be favorable and will likely continue beyond the current pandemic.

 

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PulsarPlatform

Coeur Mining (CDE) – Looking for a More Attractive Entry Point

Friday, July 31, 2020

Coeur Mining (CDE)

Looking for a More Attractive Entry Point

Coeur Mining Inc is a metals producer focused on mining precious minerals in the Americas. It is involved in the discovery and mining of gold and silver and generates the vast majority of revenue from the sale of these precious metals. The operating mines of the company are palmarejo, rochester, wharf, and kensington. Its projects are located in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and North America.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    CDE reports second quarter 2020 earnings. On an adjusted basis, the company reported second quarter earnings of $2.6 million, or $0.01 per share compared to a loss of $23.0 million, or $(0.11) per share, during the prior year period and our estimate of $(0.04). The variance to our estimate was due to lower costs applicable to sales and amortization. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA amounted to $42.2 million. On an unadjusted basis, the company reported a loss of $1.2 million, or $(0.01) per share.

    Updating estimates. Coeur forecasts 2020 gold production to be in the range of 327 thousand to 363 thousand ounces and silver production in the range of 9.5 million to 11.5 million ounces. In 2019, gold and silver production amounted to 359.4 thousand ounces and 11.7 million ounces, respectively. We are increasing our 2020 and 2021 EPS estimates to …



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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Tsenken or Copper King?

Friday, July 31, 2020

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)(ARU:CA)

Tsenken or Copper King?

As of April 24, 2020, Noble Capital Markets research on Aurania Resources is published under ticker symbols (AUIAF and ARU:CA). The price target is in USD and based on ticker symbol AUIAF. Research reports dated prior to April 24, 2020 may not follow these guidelines and could account for a variance in the price target.
Aurania Resources Ltd. is a Canada-based junior mining exploration company engaged in the identification, evaluation, acquisition, and exploration of mineral property interests, with a focus on precious metals and copper. Its flagship asset, The Lost Cities-Cutucu Project, is in southeastern Ecuador in the Province of Morona-Santiago. The company also has several minor projects in Switzerland.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Tsenken is yielding an abundance of copper targets. Aurania has had much success at the Tsenken area of its Lost Cities project. During the last several weeks the company has confirmed copper and silver in breccia, sediment-hosted deposits as well as the potential for copper porphyry style deposits. While Aurania is a gold-focused explorer, the success of its copper exploration program may be an element of the story that investors under appreciate and could be an important source of value for shareholders.

    Readying targets for scout drilling. Drilling is expected to commence at the Tsenken N2 and N3 targets prior to the end of the third quarter and the N1 target will be drilled immediately thereafter. Following field mapping and soil sampling, scout drilling could also …




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Newrange Gold (NRGOF) – No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

Friday, July 31, 2020

Newrange Gold (NRGOF)(NRG:CA)

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

As of April 24, 2020, Noble Capital Markets research on Newrange Gold is published under ticker symbols (NRGOF and NRG:CA). The price target is in USD and based on ticker symbol NRGOF. Research reports dated prior to April 24, 2020 may not follow these guidelines and could account for a variance in the price target.
Newrange Gold Corp is an exploration stage company focused on acquiring and exploring exploration and evaluation assets in Colombia and the United States. The Company operates in a single reportable operating segment-the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties. Some of the projects acquired by the company are Pamlico gold project in Nevada and Rocky mountain project in Colorado. The company also holds an interest in the Yarumalito property, El Dovio property and Anori property in Colombia.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst of Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Drilling program is off to a good start. Newrange Gold released initial results from its reverse circulation drilling program underway at the Pamlico Gold Project in Nevada. To date, 25 holes have been drilled representing 2,505 meters with results available for 14 holes representing only 450 meters of strike length along the central portion of Pamlico Ridge between the historic Pamlico and Gold Bar mines. The assay results included some high grade but greater numbers of lower grade gold intercepts with a consistent level of positive readings for both gold and silver.

    Not far off from our expectations. The initial assay results were not out of line with our expectations and will help define the continuity of mineral zones and higher-grade areas. While most of the gold was oxide within 100 meters of the surface, drilling at several …



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What’s Corporate America’s “Fair Share” of Taxes?

Corporate Taxes: Who Pays? What’s the Rate? How Much is Raised?

Corporate income taxes are levied by federal and state governments on business profits. The taxes, and more specifically, the tax rate, have become another contention point. Under President Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, while some related business deductions and credits were reduced or eliminated. Prior to the 2017 legislation, the headline corporate tax rate had been at 35% since 1993 and had been on a downward trajectory since hitting 52% in 1952. Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden has stated that his administration “will ensure that corporate America finally pays their fair share in taxes.”

The Rate

Although the Federal headline rate is 21% today, when including the average state and local taxes, the statutory corporate income tax rate in the United States is 25.7%. This rate puts the United States in line with the average amongst the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member nations, according to the Tax Foundation. Notably, the Tax Foundation notes that before the TCJA passed, the United States had the highest combined statutory corporate income tax rate among the OECD nations at 38.9%, approximately 15 percentage points higher than the OECD average, which could have put U.S. corporations at a significant competitive disadvantage to their international peers.

Finding a true effective tax rate for business is elusive, however, since many U.S. businesses are not subject to the corporate income tax but are taxed as “pass-through” entities. Pass-through businesses do not face an entity-level tax. But their owners must include their allocated share of the businesses’ profits in their taxable income under the individual income tax. Pass-through entities include sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited liability companies (LLCs), and S-corporations.

The Amount

So how much revenue does the corporate income tax actually raise? The corporate income tax is the third-largest source of federal revenue, although substantially smaller than the individual income tax and payroll taxes. It raised $230.2 billion in the fiscal year 2019, 6.6% of all federal revenue, and 1.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). The relative importance of the corporate tax as a source of revenue declined sharply from the 1940s when the corporate tax raised 7% of federal revenues to the mid-1980s when it raised 1% of revenue. Since that time, it has averaged less than 2% of GDP, according to the Tax Policy Center. On a dollar basis, in 1952, corporate taxes raised $21.2 billion in 1993, $117.5 billion, hit a high of $370 billion in 2007 and $299.6 billion in 2016 before the TCJA was enacted.

The Burdened

So who really pays corporate taxes? On the face, the corporation that writes the check pays the tax. But if corporations seek to hit specific profitability levels, if taxes are raised, what actions do the corporation take to protect its profitability level? Some economists, such as Gregory Mankiw, suggest when the government levies a tax on a corporation, the corporation is more like a tax collector than a taxpayer. The burden of the tax ultimately falls on people—the owners, customers, or workers of the corporation. The corporate income tax reduces shareholders’ after-tax returns, causing them to shift some of their investments out of the corporate sector. Shareholders will shift some investments to non-corporate (“pass-through”) businesses and some to foreign businesses not subject to the U.S. corporate income tax. The shift to these other sectors lowers the after-tax return on investments in these sectors. The shifting of investment out of the corporate sector continues until after-tax returns—adjusted for risk—are equalized in the corporate and non-corporate sectors. Thus, the corporate income tax reduces investment returns in all sectors, according to The Tax Policy Center.

While the overall tax rate grabs the headlines, the subject of corporate taxation is significantly more multifaceted than a single number.

 

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Each event in our popular Virtual Road Shows Series has maximum capacity of 100 investors online. To take part, listen to and perhaps get your questions answered, see which virtual investor meeting intrigues you here.

 

Sources:

Tax Policy Center

Onconova Therapeutics (ONTX) – Preliminary Data Is Expected In Q3 2020 Following Required Number Of Survival Events Reached

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Onconova Therapeutics Inc. (ONTX)

Preliminary Data Is Expected In Q3 2020 Following Required Number Of Survival Events Reached

Onconova Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company operating in the US. It focuses on discovering and developing novel small molecule product candidates primarily to treat cancer. The company has created a library of targeted agents designed to work against cellular pathways important to cancer cells. Its product candidates are Single-agent IV rigosertib, Oral rigosertib + azacitidine, IV Briciclib, Recilisib, and ON 123300. The key product candidate Rigosertib is a small molecule which blocks cellular signaling by targeting RAS effector pathways.

Ahu Demir, Ph.D., Biotechnology Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Required number of survival events reached in the INSPIRE trial.  Yesterday, Onconova announced that the required number of survival events has been reached for the pivotal Phase 3 INSPIRE trial data analysis. The company plans to provide preliminary top-line data in Q3 2020 and full top-line data at a medical conference in Q4 2020 -potentially at the Annual American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting in December 2020.

    What does this mean for the company? Based on this news, the company’s guidance of INSPIRE data is on track to read out in H2 2020. The median survival rate of high-risk MDS patients who failed azacytidine treatment is 5.6 months. The primary endpoint assessment was set to start dependent on this targetted survival event …




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ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO) – Post 2Q Call Commentary; Lowering PT to $10

Thursday, July 30, 2020

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

Post 2Q Call Commentary; Lowering PT to $10

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and academic products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its business, academic, and calendar product lines under the Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Segment Results. North American sales fell 24.7% to $231.7 million while adjusted operating income fell 29.8% to $42.4 million. While back-to-school sales were solid, there were significant declines in the commercial office products space. EMEA sales of $88.3 million fell 31.2% with the segment posting an adjusted operating loss of $1.1 million compared to adjusted operating income of $7.4 million last year. International sales came in at $46.9 million, down 43.2% with an adjusted operating loss of $3.2 million versus $4.4 million of adjusted operating income last year. All segments were impacted by lower demand due to COVID-19.

    Cost Reductions. Second quarter cost reductions came in at $33 million, well above management’s previous $20 million estimate. ACCO is taking additional measures to right-size the business in certain markets which should result in an additional …




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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Another Strong Quarter Despite COVID-19 Fears

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

Another Strong Quarter Despite COVID-19 Fears

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution. 2Q2020 gross profit of $20.7 million and EBITDA of $12.6 million beat our estimates of $18.7 million and $10.5 million, respectively. Revenue was 8% higher than expected with gross margin of 11.3% and EBITDA margin of 6.9%, or ~30-70 basis points better than our estimates. One main driver was much higher than expected Concrete EBITDA margin of 3.0%, up from 1.3% in 1Q2020. Marine profitability declined sequentially remain solid due to strong execution and equipment utilization. Please see details for today’s call with management on page two.

    2020 EBITDA guidance remains suspended due to uncertainty caused by COVID-19. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but management remains cautious amidst uncertainty, similar to many other companies. Our revised estimate is likely to be in …



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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) – Lower 2Q2020 TCE Rates Drive EBITDA and Price Target Revisions

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)

Lower 2Q2020 TCE Rates Drive EBITDA and Price Target Revisions

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp., an international shipping company, provides marine dry bulk transportation services through the ownership and operation of dry bulk vessels. Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is the only pure-play Capesize shipping company listed in the US capital markets. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of 10 Capesize vessels, with total capacity of approximately 1,748,581 dwt and an average fleet age of about 9.8 years. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands with executive offices in Athens, Greece and an office in Hong Kong. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP” and class A warrants under “SHIPW”.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

  • 2Q2020 results likely to be weaker due to lower Cape TCE rates. We estimate that 2Q2020 EBITDA will be in the negative $1.8 million range based on TCE rates in the $5.5k/day range. As a result, our 2020 EBITDA estimate is now $19.2 million based on Cape TCE rates of $12.6k/day range. Cash should approximate $32 million in 2Q2020 due to weaker operating results and negative working capital changes and close the year near the $20 million level after the Goodship acquisition.
  • Acquisition of the Goodship Cape set to close in early August. While crew-change issues have delayed delivery, the acquisition appears well timed given current Cape TCE rates in the $20k/day range, albeit down from recent highs in the low …


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Golden Predator Mining (NTGSF) – Research Initiation – Advancing The Yukon’s Next Big Gold Mine

Wednesday, July 29, 2020


Golden Predator Mining (NTGSF)

Research Initiation – Advancing The Yukon’s Next Big Gold Mine


Golden Predator Mining Corp is a Canada based exploration stage company engaged in the business of acquiring and exploring mineral properties. It owns properties primarily in Yukon, Canada. Some of the company’s projects located in Yukon are the 3 Aces, Sprogge, Reef, Brewery Creek, Marg, Sonora Gulch, Grew Creek, Upper Hyland and others.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Initiating coverage. We are initiating coverage of Golden Predator Mining. The company is advancing the Brewery Creek Mine in Canada’s Yukon territory with full year production expected in 2022. In our view, the equity offers significant appreciation potential as the company achieves critical milestones. Near-term catalysts include: 1) an updated mineral resource estimate expected in August 2020, 2) third quarter 2020 completion of a study to evaluate the feasibility of reprocessing heap leach pad material, and 3) completion of a full feasibility study of the Brewery Creek project, including reprocessing material on the heap leach pad and ore mined from permitted areas, by year-end 2020.

    Significant exploration potential. While our estimates are based on an initial mine plan that sources ore from currently permitted areas, there are significant opportunities to permit new areas with known resources and also develop new resources through exploration. Brewery Creek’s large land package offers significant …


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Investors Looking Beyond Lower Expectations

What’s Moving the Market: Explained in Three Charts –  Part 2

The market continues to rise despite the negative impact of a pandemic and remediation efforts that have slowed down the economy.  In an article written on June 5, 2020, What’s Moving the Market: Explained in Three Graphs – Part 1, we explained the rise in three graphs.  The first graph showed a significant jump in personal income in April related to the government stimulus.  The second graph showed a large spike in personal savings in April as home-bound consumers decided to invest the money instead of spending it.  The third showed the increased weighting that a handful of tech stocks are having on the major indices implying that the market movement is due the success of a few companies that are less affected by the pandemic and not a broad-based representation of the economy.  These three trends witnessed in April have continued into the summer months.  But there is more to the story, as explained in the next three graphs.

Reason #1 – Retail investors have become active participants in the stock market. 

Households have been taking their stimulus money and putting it directly into the stock market.  Joe Mecane, the head of execution services at Citadel Securities, said that retail investors make up 20% of the market currently, up from 10% in 2019.  Retail online brokerages such as E-Trade, TDAmeritrade, and Charles Schwab have reported robust business activity in recent months in response to the stimulus and the erasing of commission fees.  The activity has created a FOMO (fear of missing out) among retail investors, which serves to push the share of retail-favored stocks even higher.  Goldman Sachs shows this outperformance graphically in the chart below.

Reason #2 – Investors have nowhere else to go

Valuation multiples have climbed as management and analysts lower expectations for 2020.  True, investors may be looking beyond 2020, expecting a strong rebound in 2021.  Still, multiples of 2021 results are high relative to historical levels.  So why do stock prices keep rising? Frankly, there is nowhere else for investors to put their money.  Bank deposits offer little return.  Government bonds, as shown in the graph below, provide returns below 0.5% unless you go out past ten years.

 

Reason #3 – Earnings reports for the second quarter are coming in above depressed expectations

It’s early in the reporting season, but results are generally surpassing expectations at a higher rate than we have seen in past quarters.  This may reflect increased caution by management and analysts given uncertainty.  Nevertheless, better-than-expected results will lead to higher expectations for future quarters.  John Butters of Factset provides the below scorecard for S&P 500 companies who have reported second-quarter results:

 

The three graphs presented above help explain why the market continues to rise.  However, they do not offer much insight into whether the market will continue to rise in the future.  There are just too many unknowns.  Will the stimulus that put money in investor pockets be extended? How will retail investors react when the market faces a downturn? Have management and analysts overestimated the downside of the pandemic, or were they just being overly cautious?  Only time will tell.

 

Suggested Reading:

What’s Moving the Market: Explained in Three Graphs – Part 1

Equity Markets Give a Lesson in Behavioral Psychology

Copying the Brightest Investment Ideas

Enjoy Premium Channelchek Content at No Cost

Each event in our popular Virtual Road Shows Series has maximum capacity of 100 investors online. To take part, listen to and perhaps get your questions answered, see which virtual investor meeting intrigues you here.

Sources:

https://financialpost.com/investing/how-the-new-retail-investor-mania-is-changing-the-stock-market-game, Victor Ferreira, Financial Post, July 06, 2020

https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_072420.pdf, John Butters, Factset, July 24, 2020

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/retail-investors-quarter-of-stock-market-coronavirus-volatility-trading-citadel-2020-7-1029382035#, Ben Winck, Markets Insider, July 9, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Gulf Coast LNG Work Secured – 2Q2020 Results Out Next Week

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Gulf Coast LNG Work Secured – 2Q2020 Results Out Next Week

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Dredging award for third marine berth at Sabine Pass LNG plant. A subcontract has been signed with Bechtel Oil, Gas and Chemicals, Inc., the EPC contractor for an expansion of the Sabine Pass LNG liquefaction plant. The proposed expansion includes the addition of a third marine berth and supporting facilities to handle LNG tankers with capacity in the 125k-180k cubic meter range. GLDD is expected to begin dredging work for the third marine berth in 3Q2020. Limited details available now but award is a positive signal.

    2Q2020 results out Tuesday, August 4th at 8:00 am EST with call at 10:00am EST.  Call number is (877) 377-7553 and code is 1658815. The call should reinforce the virtual NDR meeting that we hosted in mid July with Lasse Petterson, President/CEO and Mark Marinko, CFO. The virtual NDR meeting showcased the favorable dredging market outlook and GLDD’s strong market position. A link is available at www.channelchek.com …



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Acco Brands (ACCO) – Cost Cutting Efforts Result in Above Expected 2Q EPS but Business Conditions Remain Challenging

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

ACCO Brands Corporation (ACCO)

Cost Cutting Efforts Result in Above Expected 2Q EPS but Business Conditions Remain Challenging

ACCO Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and sells office products, academic supplies, and calendar products primarily in the United States, Canada, Northern Europe, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands EMEA, and ACCO Brands International. The company offers office products, such as stapling, binding and laminating equipment, and related consumable supplies, as well as shredders and whiteboards; and academic products, including notebooks, folders, decorative calendars, and stationery products. It also provides private label products, as well as business machine maintenance and repair services. The company offers its business, academic, and calendar product lines under the Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra, Wilson Jones, and other brand names. In addition, it designs, sources, distributes, markets, and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers, and tablets comprising security products; input devices, such as presenters, mice, and trackballs; ergonomic aids, including foot and wrist rests; docking stations; and other personal computers and tablet accessories under the Kensington, Microsaver, and ClickSafe brand names. The company sells its products to consumers and commercial end-users primarily through resellers, including traditional office supply resellers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through on-line and direct mail. ACCO Brands Corporation is headquartered in Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    2Q20 Results. Revenue of $366.9 million declined 29.3% y-o-y with comp sales off 28.3%. GAAP net income totaled $5.4 million, or $0.06 per share, compared to $35.9 million, or $0.35, last year. Adjusted net income was $11.6 million, or $0.12 per share, versus $36.3 million, or $0.36 per share, in 2Q19. Quarterly results were negatively impacted by the COVID crisis and $6.5 million of restructuring costs.. Results came in at the lower end of management’s guidance of a 25%-40% sales decline and above the guided adjusted EPS of a loss of $0.05 to a positive $0.07. We had forecast revenue at $363 million, net income of $0.02, and adjusted net income of $0.04.

    Cost Reductions. Savings from cost reductions reduced 2Q expenses by some $33 million, which drove the positive earnings in the face of the revenue decline. Further actions to focus the business on faster growing categories and channels will result in an expected additional …




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