March 2020 - Page 3 of 9

Research – Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL) – Unique Business Model Positive for Uncertainty Ahead

Posted on March 25, 2020 by Admin

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL)

Unique Business Model Positive for Uncertainty Ahead

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd and its subsidiaries provide seaborne drybulk transportation services. It transports drybulk cargos including grains, coal, iron, ore, pig, iron, hot briquetted iron, bauxite, alumina, cement clinker, dolomite and limestone. The firm’s services include cargo loading, cargo discharge, vessel chartering, voyage planning and technical vessel management. The company derives all of its revenues from contracts of affreightment, voyage charters and time charters. Its strategy depends on focusing on increasing strategic contracts of affreightment, expanding capacity and flexibility by increasing its owned fleet and increasing backhaul focus and fleet efficiency.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Consistent business model delivered solid 4Q2019 results, but adjusting 2020 EBITDA estimate to reflect near-term uncertainty. While China is slowly returning to work and returning to normal, the near-term outlook is uncertain. As a result, our EBITDA estimate moves down to $47.1 million from $54.6 million, based on TCE rates of $13,423 and and 16,760 shipping days.

Fleet renewal intact with new build new program and sale of older assets. Acquisitions are possible if market…

Click here to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report.
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.

Introduction to channelchek

Posted on March 24, 2020May 4, 2022 by Admin

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Industry Report – What Is Going On With Gold?

Posted on March 24, 2020 by Admin

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Minerals Industry Report

What Is Going on With Gold?

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Listen To The Analyst

Refer to end of report for Analyst Certification & Disclosures

Year-to-date gold returns have been lackluster. Year-to-date through March 23, the gold futures price increased 3.0% from $1,529.30 per ounce at year-end 2019 to finish at $1,575.55. During the same period, the Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) were down 25.1% and 35.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 index was down 30.8%. On March 9, gold reached a high of $1,704.30 before reaching a low of $1,450.90 on March 16.
Institutional investors seek liquidity. While gold had performed reasonably well up until the recent market meltdown, the recent weakness in the gold price has been attributed to institutional investors selling positions to raise cash, deleverage and/or to offset other losses. This seems supported by March data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Interestingly, physical demand for gold has increased. Total U.S. Mint gold sales in March 2020 increased to 120,500 ounces compared with 7,000 ounces in February and 60,000 ounces in January.
Deficits, debt and interest rates. In our view, a combination of rising U.S. government deficits, debt and lower interest rates are supportive of gold prices. Investors typically buy gold as a store of value and with interest rates expected to remain low for the foreseeable future and negative-yielding debt in some countries, investors may increase their exposure to precious metals. Additionally, while stimulus is required to mitigate the coronavirus’ negative economic impact, it could lead to inflationary pressures down the road which are generally supportive of gold prices.
Outlook for gold prices remains favorable. While gold prices and precious metal mining equities have not escaped volatility, we think the outlook for gold prices and precious metals equities remain favorable. While cash is king now, we believe institutional interest in gold may increase as dislocations in the markets stabilize and both retail and institutional investors seek exposure to gold for diversification.

Despite a Rough Start, Outlook for Gold Prices Remains Constructive

Year-to-date through March 23, the gold futures price increased 3.0% from $1,529.30 per ounce at year-end 2019 to finish at $1,575.55. During the same period, the Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) were down 25.1% and 35.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 index was down 30.8%. On March 9, gold reached a high of $1,704.30 before reaching a low of $1,450.90 on March 16.

While Institutional Traders Seek Liquidity, Retail Demand for Physical Bullion is Strengthening

While gold had performed reasonably well up until the recent market meltdown, the recent weakness in the gold price has been attributed to institutional investors selling positions to raise cash, deleverage and/or to offset other losses. This seems supported by March data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Interestingly, physical demand for gold has increased. Total U.S. Mint gold sales in March 2020 increased to 120,500 ounces compared with 7,000 ounces in February and 60,000 ounces in January. In 2019, gold sales amounted to 65,000 ounces in January, 13,000 ounces in February and 11,500 ounces in March.

Rising Deficits, Debt and Lower for Longer Interest Rates

In our view, a combination of rising U.S. government deficits, debt and lower for longer interest rates are supportive of gold prices. Investors typically buy gold as a store of value and with interest rates expected to remain low for the foreseeable future and negative-yielding debt in some countries, investors may increase their exposure to precious metals. Additionally, while stimulus is required to mitigate the coronavirusâ€™ negative impact on global economies, it could lead to inflationary pressures down the road.

As of March 20, the U.S. governmentâ€™s public debt approximated $23.5 trillion. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the deficit amounted to $624.5 million through February of fiscal year 2020, compared to $544.2 million during the prior year period. Recall the governmentâ€™s fiscal year begins in October. Increasing government deficits and debt could act as a drag on economic growth, support lower interest rates and weaken the U.S. dollar. To mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus, Congress continues to hammer out a $2 trillion stimulus bill.

On March 23, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announced plans to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to Â¼ percent. The Fed will use its â€œfull range of authorities to provide powerful support for the flow of credit to American families and businesses.â€? These include purchasing Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, establishing new programs to provide up to $300 billion in new financing to support the flow of credit to businesses and consumers, expanding money market mutual fund liquidity and commercial paper funding facilities to facilitate credit to municipalities and a potential Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to eligible small-and-medium sized businesses.

Bottom Line

While gold prices and precious metal mining equities have not escaped volatility, we think the outlook for gold prices and precious metals equities remain constructive. While cash is king now, we believe institutional interest in gold may increase as dislocations in the markets stabilize and both retail and institutional investors begin to focus on gold’s favorable long-term fundamental drivers and seek exposure to gold for diversification. In our opinion, mining stocks may be an attractive way to gain exposure to precious metals given the disproportionate percentage impact higher commodity prices may have on a companyâ€™s bottom line and valuation for a given percentage increase in the commodity itself. While the virus may have varying degrees of impact on mining operations, any near-term disruption to production would be supportive of gold prices. In our view, the fallout from the coronavirus has only intensified many of the factors that are already supportive of gold prices, including lower interest rates, worries about global economic growth and increased government spending.

GENERAL DISCLAIMERS

All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.
The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.

Company Specific Disclosures

The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.
Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months

ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

WARNING

This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of
transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public
appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS	% OF SECURITIES COVERED	% IB CLIENTS
Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price	86%	25%
Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price	14%	2%
Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price	0%	0%

NOTE: On August 20, 2018, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. changed the terminology of its ratings (as shown above) from “Buy” to “Outperform”, from “Hold” to “Market Perform” and from “Sell” to “Underperform.” The percentage relationships, as compared to current price (definitions), have remained the same. Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by mail or phone.

Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
225 NE Mizner Blvd. Suite 150
Boca Raton, FL 33432
561-994-1191

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) registered broker/dealer.
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is an MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board) registered broker/dealer.
Member – SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation)
Report ID: 11342

Research – Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL) – A Strong Quarter. Unique Business Model Helps Offset Uncertainty.

Posted on March 24, 2020 by Admin

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL)

A Strong Quarter. Unique Business Model Helps Offset Uncertainty.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Unique business model delivers solid results. 4Q2019 EBITDA of $13.5 million beat our $12.8 million estimate and was above $12.2 million in 4Q2018. Shipping days of 5,240, TCE rates of $15.2k/day and lower opex were positives.

Call today at 8 am EST to discuss results. Number is 888-895-3561 and code is 9578734. Look for added details on: 1) Dry bulk market outlook; 2) Charter in activity; 3) Volume and/or pricing changes in cargo book; 4) Progress on the four new builds under way in China; and 5) Capital allocation strategy given apparent shift toward…

Click here to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

How Your Business Can Satisfying the Current Need for Content

Posted on March 24, 2020 by Admin

Helping Your Business by Helping Others Understand the CoVID-19 Impact

The world, including your customers, prospects, and investors have become hyper-needy for information. Many businesses have slowed or are doing what they can from remote offices, their contact with the thoughts of others is much lower than it had been. At the same time, their wanting to understand is high. One way you can firm your relationships with those you most want to continue to engage when this is over is through filling their need for content.

Here are three thoughts for finding the best topics to develop meaningful content and build readership that will want what you offer them next time.

Meaningful

Your readers don’t need to be told what they just heard or read at a news source with journalists and deep resources. What they can benefit from is that information distilled through the lens of your expertise. Before writing on a topic, ask:

Who am I trying to inform?
What do they already know?
What piece, using my in-house expertise or knowledge, makes what they know more pertinent?

Then proceed in writing from the angle of how what is going on impacts or is impacted by a piece the journalist would not have covered. Your business has its own niche. There is no reason to wander far from that niche to attract who you want to.

Brevity

If you’re writing about the Novel Coronavirus and you are certain 99.99% of your audience doesn’t need an explanation what it is, don’t spend a paragraph defining the situation. Ten years from now someone may come across your content and benefit from the explanation, today’s readers are who you are writing for.

Keep in mind the person reading your blog post, article, or email update wants to skip to the meat. Readers aren’t returning to you because you give them the obvious, they are there because you are provide uncommon insight.

Brevity, as used here does not necessarily mean brief. if you can go beyond what is readily available. If you have particular expertise in an area that is not otherwise being covered, make that information known. Just be as concise as possible, no one has time to waste on “common knowledge.”

Take-Away

Self-promotion during times of national crisis is a turn-off to readers. However, strengthening your relationship with certain people is important to your company. If the piece is useful and holds your firm out as having expertise in the subject, if the reader develops a hunger for something else from your company, you’ve satisfied your content goal. Don’t ruin it by trying to “close the deal.” At the end of your posting, remind them what they need to remember about what they read. This shows you care that they have understood the salient points.

Developing or firming relationships with those that may have never heard of your company is easier when we’re surrounded by turmoil. The bright side of turmoil is it provides opportunities to “meet” those that may not have heard of your business before. During periods of “business as usual” your target is doing what they usually do and not looking beyond that. This difficult business period we are all pushing through. As readers get to know you better through content, being genuine in helping fill a void and connecting what is going on a different, useful way, will cause them to open their door to you later on.

Suggested Reading:

How Americans Research and What it Means for Your Business

Industry report what is going on with gold

Posted on March 24, 2020May 4, 2022 by Admin

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Minerals Industry Report

What Is Going on With Gold?

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Listen To The Analyst

Refer to end of report for Analyst Certification & Disclosures

Year-to-date gold returns have been lackluster. Year-to-date through March 23, the gold futures price increased 3.0% from $1,529.30 per ounce at year-end 2019 to finish at $1,575.55. During the same period, the Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) were down 25.1% and 35.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 index was down 30.8%. On March 9, gold reached a high of $1,704.30 before reaching a low of $1,450.90 on March 16.
Institutional investors seek liquidity. While gold had performed reasonably well up until the recent market meltdown, the recent weakness in the gold price has been attributed to institutional investors selling positions to raise cash, deleverage and/or to offset other losses. This seems supported by March data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Interestingly, physical demand for gold has increased. Total U.S. Mint gold sales in March 2020 increased to 120,500 ounces compared with 7,000 ounces in February and 60,000 ounces in January.
Deficits, debt and interest rates. In our view, a combination of rising U.S. government deficits, debt and lower interest rates are supportive of gold prices. Investors typically buy gold as a store of value and with interest rates expected to remain low for the foreseeable future and negative-yielding debt in some countries, investors may increase their exposure to precious metals. Additionally, while stimulus is required to mitigate the coronavirus’ negative economic impact, it could lead to inflationary pressures down the road which are generally supportive of gold prices.
Outlook for gold prices remains favorable. While gold prices and precious metal mining equities have not escaped volatility, we think the outlook for gold prices and precious metals equities remain favorable. While cash is king now, we believe institutional interest in gold may increase as dislocations in the markets stabilize and both retail and institutional investors seek exposure to gold for diversification.

Despite a Rough Start, Outlook for Gold Prices Remains Constructive

While Institutional Traders Seek Liquidity, Retail Demand for Physical Bullion is Strengthening

Rising Deficits, Debt and Lower for Longer Interest Rates

Bottom Line

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS	% OF SECURITIES COVERED	% IB CLIENTS
Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price	86%	25%
Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price	14%	2%
Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price	0%	0%

Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
225 NE Mizner Blvd. Suite 150
Boca Raton, FL 33432
561-994-1191

Research pangaea logistics solutions ltd- panl a strong quarter- unique business model helps offset uncertainty

Posted on March 24, 2020May 4, 2022 by Admin

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL)

A Strong Quarter. Unique Business Model Helps Offset Uncertainty.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Click here to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

COVID-19 Spread and Threat

Posted on March 23, 2020 by Admin

Research pyxis tankers inc- pxs solid quarter and refined product tanker outlook promising once uncertainty passes

Posted on March 23, 2020May 4, 2022 by Admin

Monday, March 23, 2020

Pyxis Tankers Inc. (PXS)

Solid Quarter and Refined Product Tanker Outlook Promising Once Uncertainty Passes.

Pyxis Tankers Inc is a United States-based international maritime transportation company which focuses on the product tanker sector. It owns a fleet which comprises of double hull product tankers employed under a mix of short- and medium-term time charters and spot charters. The fleet owned by the company includes Pyxis Epsilon, Pyxis Theta, Pyxis Malou, Pyxis Delta, Northsea Alpha, and Northsea Beta. Each of the vessels in the fleet is capable of transporting refined petroleum products, such as naphtha, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, and other liquid bulk items, such as vegetable oils and organic chemicals.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Quarter, but 4Q2019 EBITDA Slightly Below Expectations. Adjusted 4Q2019 EBITDA of $1.9 million was slightly below our estimate of $2.3 million due to a combination of lower TCE revenue ($0.3 million) and higher opex ($0.1 million).

Adjusting 2020 EBITDA estimate. We are fine-tuning our 2020 EBITDA estimate and moving to $6.9 million based on TCE rates of $13,532/day and 1,589 operating days due to the timing of dry dockings on the Epsilon and…

Click here to get the full report.

This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Research – Pyxis Tankers Inc. (PXS) – Solid Quarter and Refined Product Tanker Outlook Promising Once Uncertainty Passes.

Posted on March 23, 2020 by Admin

Monday, March 23, 2020

Pyxis Tankers Inc. (PXS)

Solid Quarter and Refined Product Tanker Outlook Promising Once Uncertainty Passes.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Click here to get the full report.

This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Factors to Consider when Setting a New Investment Course

Posted on March 20, 2020 by Admin

Deciding on the Best Course for when the Storm Clears

Investors must be able to trust the aids on which they rely when navigating financial markets. If they can’t, they’re putting a lot at risk, themselves, and all who are depending on the performance of the assets. When market squalls arise, there must be confidence in decision methods and surety in your own ability to carry them out. A feeling of being way off course, for some, can cause clouded decisions and perhaps lead to the wrong actions. Complete confidence in where you are and how to proceed is required. To act or even not to act is a decision. Market storms cause us to lose trust in our strategies and question ourselves. People often freeze, some just start panic buying or selling. If you feel your methods and aids for navigating the market have taken you far off course, it’s hard to trust them. But, without having something to rely on, deciding what to do next is a shot in the dark.

There is nothing in this educational piece about deadly viruses, quarantines, or business closures. That’s intentional. The suggestions you’ll find as you scroll down are things I’ve learned over three-plus decades of all types of market storms. There is no need to point to a specific disruption; because there is one thing that is constant through all of them, human behavior. I will, however, warn you that the next section may be uncomfortable for some. Uncomfortable because it has you looking a bit into your reaction to adverse events. We’ll quickly move past that and provide some positive ideas for you or the accounts you manage, information that will make for better conversation during quarterly performance quarterly reviews.

Correct
for Deviation

Before checking on the accuracy of your decision-making tools, check on the fitness of the decider. You. Your aids for navigating the market may be in working order and just as useful as ever, but your ability to read them may be skewed.

There’s a fear center in our brains called the amygdala (/e’migdele/). The processing speed of the amygdala is 12 milliseconds (twelve-thousands of a second) if I convert this to a unit of measure to make it easier to understand, it equates to instantly. For example, if a bug lands on us (or if we see the words “market crash”) this fear center reacts and can instantly cause tense muscles, increased pulse rate, released hormones, and heightened sensitivity to anything else around that can be perceived as risk or danger. Have you ever experienced someone sneak up on you and cause you to jump? Your heart, breathing, and the rest of your body are instantly revved up. It takes a while to “recover” even after you know you’re okay. Your reaction processes changed in 12 milliseconds or instantly.

Think about all the information about health, markets, and economic collapse that has been heaped on us recently – within a short span of time. There are many reasons to expect our fear centers are doing what they were designed to do to serve our cave-dwelling ancestors. It’s taking over or, at the very least, weighing in on our decision making. When our amygdala is our co-pilot, we tend to question everything. The problem with this as an investor is it may not be measuring the next course of action rationally. It may be overriding our ability to measure one possible outcome over another. Prior to being hit with recent shocks, there may have been gloom and doomsayers that we could easily dismiss. This could have been TV News or other media that we knew was just trying to keep viewers’ attention, so we ignored any hype. We may have more easily accepted that there is always disease present in our lives, yet mankind has survived and thrived. We probably weren’t spending every day thinking, I better do something and I better do it now.

If you believe you are in the heightened fear mode and you’re concerned about the risk of your next move, try this: Turn off your TV and do these four things to help your mind reappraise the situation.

Remove the personal side. Pretend you’re advising someone else. What advice would you give them? Then weigh the advice for yourself.
Look at other times you or others were in similar positions. For the most recent stock market moves I brought myself back to the October 2002 plunge. This market event is the least talked about because it is the least remembered. It felt devastating at the time. I thrived afterward.
Write down the three most upsetting things you feel about the future. Now mentally write a story, using actual acts available, that now develop into a bright future.
Don’t immerse yourself in triggers. The most important quarantine for investors right now may be from others who are afraid. Fear is contagious and can fire up your amygdala.

Intelligent investors act out of patience and courage, not panic. If you are temporarily questioning your ability to act using your trusted tools and strategy, the focus should be on regaining that confidence, not acting despite it.

Move Forward Before it’s Completely Clear

I had read a New York Times article with the headline: Stock Market
ends its Worst Quarter Since 1987 Crash. The date on top of the newspaper was September 30, 2002. After the paper printed, over a couple of weeks, the market went even lower. Flash forward to this week, I have taken a lot of calls from investment advisors and even some big firm money managers. These are all veterans in the business, yet when I mentioned the Fall of 2002, very few had a recollection of those brutal few months. Storms pass.

The least popular advice anyone, especially with an activated amygdala, wants to hear is common sense. Investment axioms like: “Stay the course,” “The best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets,” “if you liked it at $40 you should love it twice as much at $20,” are hard to swallow when you want quantitative reasons for your next move. Investors should base their decisions on hard data, not people just repeating what sounds good.

Here is hard data for you to review, not fluffy sayings: Statistically, as stocks decline, they become more dangerous. But, only in the short run. In the long-run, every leg lower equates to a higher probability of high returns later. On the surface, anecdotally, this makes sense, but it’s easier to get comfortable with if you see the data.

S&P Avg. Performance Since 1950 After Market Decline

The first column of the above table lists the stock market declines from their highs broken down into 5% increments. The next column shows where the market bounced to after three months; the next column lists 6-month results; this is then followed by average annualized returns for one, three, ten, and 20-year average annual return. Periods highlighted in green are above average; those in red indicate some decline from the previous period.

At the 20%-25% market decline level, and all further declines from there, there is a significant improvement in returns after one year. The average annual returns for all periods afterward are inline or better than returns expected by investors in the overall market. Based on this information, if you are in the market today, stay in. If you have cash, a better argument can be made for you to commit some of it than to stay away.

The above data is encouraging. It is important that I remind you that these are averages. Probabilities are nice, but what has happened in the absolute worst case is largely hidden in the data. The worst that has happened to any of these investors is information I would also want to review before committing capital.

S&P Worst-Case Since 1950 After Market Decline

This new table is the same as the one above except it’s showing the single worst case of return as time went on. One take-away is stocks can go a lot lower over the short-term, but over the long-term, the situation starts to improve dramatically. With this as a guide, the worst-case scenarios have investors increasingly more at risk if they entered the market after only a small decline. In other words, since 1950, even in the worst-case scenario, investors have been better off when they have invested after substantial selloffs.

Checking the S&P level this Friday (3/20/20) I see the broader market is down 29.41% from its February 10^th high. A Return to that level will require a mathematical increase of 41.70%. In the past, when we have been in this situation, the market has returned 8.5%-9.5% to investors after just one year. There is, however, the risk that history teaches us that we may have to wait longer than a year just to break even.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor

COVID-19, Where we are Right Now

Posted on March 20, 2020 by Admin

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Coronavirus (but didn’t know who to ask)

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
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Balanced section.)

The Coronavirus Outbreak

As of March 24^th, there were 427,663 people infected with Covid-19 worldwide, and 18,605 have died from the disease. Although the epidemic started in China, the total number of cases is higher outside of China. More countries (Italy, Spain, Germany, and others) are taking extreme measures by closing borders to prevent the spread of the infection. The International Health Regulations Emergency Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a pandemic. On March 13, the President of the United States declared the COVID-19 outbreak a national emergency. Today, there are 44,183 confirmed cases and 544 people have died from the disease (March 24^h, 2020).

At present, there is no specific antiviral treatment for COVID-19, and no vaccine is currently available. The treatment is only symptomatic, oxygen therapy represents the primary intervention for patients with pneumonia due to severe infection. Mechanical ventilation may be necessary in cases of respiratory failure refractory to oxygen therapy, whereas hemodynamic support is essential for managing septic shock.

Exhibit 1: Fact sheet for SARS-CoV-2

Source: CDC, WHO, and WSJ

Exhibit 2: Epidemiological Comparison
of Respiratory Infections

Coronaviruses are single-stranded RNA, enveloped viruses with spike glycoproteins on the envelope. That means the viral genome consists of a strand of RNA (instead of DNA) and each viral particle is wrapped in a protein called envelope. The virus’s genome consists of 30,000 genetic letters (relatively large for a virus). Four structural proteins make up a coronavirus particle: the nucleocapsid, envelope, membrane, and spike (Exhibit 3). The nucleocapsid makes the genetic core, encapsulated in a sphere formed by the envelope and membrane proteins.

Exhibit
3. Coronavirus

Source:
Liu C. et al. “Research and Development on Therapeutic Agents and Vaccines for
COVID-19 and Related Human Coronavirus Diseases”, ACS Cent. Sci., March 2020

The virus enters the body through the nose, mouth or eyes by attaching to cells that produce a protein called ACE2. The spike proteins bind to receptors (ACE) on host cells and invade a cell. Similar to other viruses, coronaviruses release the genetic material (RNA) after invading a host cell. The genetic material gets incorporated into the host cell, hijacking its replication machinery to make many copies, which are released infecting other cells. Millions of copies of the virus can be produced from each infected cell. Most Covid-19 infections cause a fever as the immune system fights to clear the virus from the body. In severe cases, the immune system can overreact and begin to attack lung cells. In some cases, Covid-19 infection can lead to acute respiratory dysfunction, and possibly death.

Coughing and sneezing can expel virus droplets onto nearby people and surfaces, where the virus can remain infectious for several hours to several days. Coronavirus has a long half-life on various surfaces as listed in Exhibit 4. The C.D.C. recommends that people diagnosed with Covid-19 wear masks to reduce the release of viruses.

Exhibit
4. Stability of Coronavirus Infection

Source: This week in virology

An overview of published scientific information was gathered by ACS Cent. Sci. March 2020 (Liu C. et al. “Research and Development on Therapeutic Agents
and Vaccines for COVID-19 and Related Human Coronavirus Diseases”. The article highlights antiviral strategies to target complex molecular interactions involved in coronavirus infection and replication. Some of agents known to be effective against other RNA viruses including SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, influenza, HCV, and Ebola as well as anti-inflammatory drugs are or can be repurposed to target coronavirus (Exhibit 5).

Exhibit
5. Existing Drugs with Therapeutic Potentials for COVID-19 (Drug Repurposing)

a)
Drugs under clinical trials for treating COVID-19 (repurposing). b) Drugs under
clinical trials for other virus-induced diseases. c) Ritonavir is a
pharmacokinetic profile enhancer that may potentiate the effects of other
protease inhibitors due to its ability to attenuate the degradation of those
drugs by the liver enzyme CYP3A4 and thus is used in combination with antiviral
Lopinavir.37 d) An inhibitor of viral entry to host cells. Its direct action on
S protein and ACE2 is yet to be confirmed.

Source:
Liu C. et al. “Research and Development on Therapeutic Agents and Vaccines for
COVID-19 and Related Human Coronavirus Diseases”, ACS Cent. Sci., March 2020

Chloroquine, an antimalarial drug, was shown to be effective in treating coronavirus in China. Chloroquine phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from tens of thousands of existing drugs after drug screening. The medicine has been under clinical trials in China. A fixed dose of the anti-HIV combination, lopinavir?ritonavir, is currently in clinical trials with Arbidol or ribavirin.

Some potential targets, their roles in viral infection, and representative existing drugs or drug candidates that act on the corresponding targets in similar viruses are also summarized in Exhibit 6.

Exhibit
6. Key Proteins and Their Roles during the Viral Infection Process

Source:
Liu C. et al. “Research and Development on Therapeutic Agents and Vaccines for
COVID-19 and Related Human Coronavirus Diseases”, ACS Cent. Sci., March 2020

Identification of potential targets is important for the development of efficacious drugs with high target specificity and/or uncovering existing drugs that could be repurposed to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection. 3CLpro and PLpro are two viral proteases responsible for the cleavage of viral peptides into functional units, this process is essential for virus replication and packaging within the host cells. Thus, drugs that target these proteases in other viruses such as HIV drugs, lopinavir and ritonavir, are currently marketed. RdRp is the RNA polymerase responsible for viral RNA synthesis (another crucial process for viral infections). Conceivably, the interaction of viral S protein with its receptor ACE2 on host cells, and subsequent viral entry into the cells, may also be a viable drug target. The broad spectrum antiviral drug Arbidol, which functions as a virus-host cell fusion inhibitor to prevent viral entry into host cells against the influenza virus, is also being tested in a clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2. The protease TMPRSS2 produced by the host cells plays an important role in proteolytic processing of S protein priming to the receptor ACE2 binding in human cells. Camostat mesylate, a clinically approved TMPRSS2 inhibitor, was shown to block SARS-CoV-2 entry to human cells, indicating its potential as a drug for COVID-19. ACE2 is a potent negative regulator restraining overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) that may be involved in the elicitation of inflammatory lung disease. The notion that ACE2 mediates coronavirus invasion is largely accepted; however, it remains unclear how the levels or activities of ACE2, AT1 receptors, and AT2 receptors are altered in coronavirus-induced diseases due to the limited number of studies. It is yet to be determined whether some drugs or compounds that target any of these proteins (e.g., L-163491 as a partial antagonist of AT1 receptor and partial agonist of AT2 receptor) may alleviate coronavirus induced lung injury.

Current Clinical Activities

Rising Pharmaceuticals’s chloroquine phosphate (anti-malarial drug) had demonstrated marked efficacy and acceptable safety in treating COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China, as stated by the State Council of China news briefing on February 17, 2020. It was claimed that the patients treated with the medicine have shown better indicators than their control groups, fever, improvement of CT images of lungs, and the percentage of patients with negative in viral nucleic acid tests.

Gilead’s
remdesivir was the first drug to enter the clinic against coronavirus. Remdesivir was initially tested in humans with Ebola virus disease and has shown promise in animal models for MERS and SARS. Two ongoing Phase 3 studies are assessing Remdesivir (that blocks RNA polymerase) for the treatment of COVID-19 in the United States and China. These randomized, open-label, multicenter studies will have readouts anticipated in April 2020.

Moderna became the second company to enter the clinic to combat coronavirus following Gilead. Moderna is developing an mRNA-based vaccine mRNA-1273 to protect against coronavirus infection. The mRNA codes instruct the body’s cells to synthesize certain proteins from the virus that don’t infect a person but activate an immune response. On March 16, the first patient was dosed with mRNA-1273. The open-label trial will be tested on 45 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18 and 55, according to clinicaltrials.gov over approximately six weeks. The volunteers will be divided into three groups, each of which will receive a different dosage. Results from the Phase 1 trial are expected in June.

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals have started a clinical program evaluating Kevzara (sarilumab) in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19. Kevzara is an interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor antagonist approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2017 to treat adults with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis. The U.S.-based trial is expected to begin in New York, to assess the safety and efficacy of adding Kevzara to usual supportive care, compared to supportive care plus placebo. The multi-center, double-blind, Phase 2/3 trial has an adaptive design. The data is anticipated to readout in April 2020.

Roche and Genentech also initiated a Phase 3 trial of Actemra in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia in China and Italy. The primary and secondary endpoints of the trial include clinical status, mortality, mechanical ventilation, and ICU variables. Actemra, an interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor antagonist, was approved by the FDA in 2010 for the treatment of moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients.

Capitalism Versus Coronavirus

Posted on March 20, 2020 by Admin

Current Efforts to Combat Coronavirus Pandemic

Current Efforts to Combat Coronavirus Pandemic

As the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, rapidly spreads around the globe, scientists and physicians have been racing to understand this new virus and the pathophysiology of this disease to uncover possible treatment regimens and discover effective therapeutic agents and vaccines.

Exhibit 7. Selected Companies Combatting Coronavirus

Source: Noble Capital

The outbreak gave rise to an active business development environment for deal-making to create join ventures and collaborations focused on the development of an effective therapy. In addition to multiple academic collaborations, recent industry deals include:

Abcellera with Eli Lilly
BioNtech with Pfizer
Generex with Epivax
Vaxart with Emergent BioSolutions
Vir collaborating with Biogen and Alynam

On the therapeutic side, Gilead’s remdesivir was the first drug to enter the clinic against coronavirus. Remdesivir was initially tested in humans with Ebola virus disease and has shown promise in animal models for MERS and SARS. Two ongoing Phase 3 studies are assessing Remdesivir (that blocks RNA polymerase) for the treatment of COVID-19 in the United States and China. These randomized, open-label, multicenter studies will have readouts anticipated in April 2020.

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals have started a clinical program evaluating Kevzara (sarilumab) in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19. Kevzara is an interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor antagonist approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2017 to treat adults with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis. The U.S.-based trial is expected to begin in New York, to assess the safety and efficacy of adding Kevzara to usual supportive care, compared to supportive care plus placebo. The multi-center, double-blind, Phase 2/3 trial has an adaptive design. The data is anticipated to readout in April 2020.

Roche and Genentech also initiated a Phase 3 trial of Actemra in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia in China and Italy. The primary and secondary endpoints of the trial include clinical status, mortality, mechanical ventilation, and ICU variables. Actemra, an interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor antagonist, was approved by the FDA in 2010 for the treatment of moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients.

Can-Fite BioPharma (CANF) is also exploring piclidenoson (A3 adenosine receptor agonist (A3AR) small molecule) on Coronaviruses viral load in a mammalian cell model system in collaboration with the Lewis Katz School of Medicine at Temple University, Philadelphia. Piclidenoson is currently in Phase 3 clinical stage for the treatment of patients with rheumatoid arthritis and it has anti-viral effects against single stranded RNA viruses.

Cocrystal is collaborating with Kansas State University Research Foundation (KSURF) to further develop proprietary broad-spectrum antiviral compounds for the treatment of Norovirus and Coronavirus infections. Cocrystal uses structure-based technologies to identify antiviral drugs.

CytoDyn (CYDY) is developing leronlimab (PRO 140), a CCR5 antagonist with the potential for multiple therapeutic indications. The company submitted an investigational new drug (IND) application to the FDA to conduct a Phase 2 clinical trial with leronlimab (PRO 140) as a therapy for patients who experience respiratory complications as a result of contracting COVID-19.

On the vaccine front, among over 40 vaccines are in development, Moderna’s mRNA-1273 is the only one currently in the clinic. Moderna generates vaccines that contain nucleic acids with genetic codes (mRNA sequence). These codes instruct the body’s cells to synthesize certain proteins from the virus that don’t infect a person but activate an immune response. On March 16, the first patient was dosed with mRNA-1273 and Moderna became the second company to enter the clinic to combat coronavirus following Gilead. The open-label trial will be tested on 45 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18 and 55, according to ClinicalTrials.gov over approximately six weeks. The volunteers will be divided into three groups, each of which will receive a different dosage. Results from the Phase 1 trial are expected in June.

Dyadic is collaborating with The Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) to develop therapeutics against Covid-19. As per the collaboration, IIBR will develop potential candidates and Dyadic will use their C1 technology to manufacture vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. C1 expression system is at the discovery stage to manufacture large volumes of low-cost biologic products such as enzymes and proteins.

Generex Biotechnology (GNBT) has signed a contract with EpiVax to use their computational tools to predict epitopes that can be used to generate peptide vaccines against the Covid-19 using the patented NuGenerex Immuno-Oncology (NGIO – Formerly Antigen Express) Ii-Key technology. EpiVax has identified a number of “hotspots” in the amino acid sequences of the nCOV-2019 coronavirus proteins. Using the epitopes predicted by EpiVax, Generex will manufacture a series of synthetic amino acid peptides that mimic the epitopes of the virus and send them to China for testing. EpiVax is collaborating with University of Georgia to develop a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV -2 (COVID-19) vaccine.

Heat Biologics (HTBX) is developing therapeutic vaccines in collaboration with the University of Miami to support the development of a vaccine leveraging Heat’s proprietary gp96 platform designed to target the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals announced a collaboration with Southern Research to develop a vaccine TNX-1800 against Covid-19. The company is using its proprietary horsepox virus vector platform for the development of TNX-1800. Tonix has previously reported that horsepox has efficacy as a vaccine and good tolerability in mice and cynomolgus macaques.

Vaxart uses a specific virus called adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) as part of its novel technology platform to help train the immune system to recognize and defeat dangerous invading pathogens. The Ad5 virus serves as a vector to deliver the antigen and booster molecules to stimulate immune responses. The antigen is the pathogen protein designed to trigger the targeted immune response and the booster molecule is an adjuvant that stimulates and adds to the immune response. Vaxart can use the same vector with different antigens to provide an effective standardized and scalable approach for vaccine development. Vaxart’s approach to develop a vaccine for Covid-19 involves generating potential vaccine candidates based on the published genome of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

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Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Coronavirus