Research – Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA) – Challenging Market, But 2H2020 Recovery Ahead?

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA)

Challenging Market, But 2H2020 Recovery Ahead?

Euroseas Ltd. provides ocean-going transportation services worldwide. The company owns and operates containerships that transport dry and refrigerated containerized cargoes, including manufactured products and perishables; and drybulk carriers that transport iron ore, coal, grains, bauxite, phosphate, and fertilizers. As of March 31, 2017, it had a fleet of seven containerships; and six drybulk carriers, including three Panamax drybulk carriers, one Handymax drybulk carrier, one Kamsarmax drybulk carrier, and one Ultramax drybulk carrier. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Maroussi, Greece.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adjusted 4Q2019 EBITDA, excluding dry dock expenses, was $2.7 million, or about $0.6 million below expectations.  4Q2019 gross TCE revenue of $13.2 million increased due to 307 higher ownership days and a $532 increase in TCE rates to $9,086/day.

Adjusting 2020 EBITDA estimate to reflect current container market fundamentals. Recent acquisitions will have a full impact on 2020 operating results and we are forecasting 2020 EBITDA of $15.3 million based on 6,695 operating days and TCE rates of $9.691/day versus our previous estimate of…



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Research euroseas ltd- esea challenging market but 2h2020 recovery ahead

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA)

Challenging Market, But 2H2020 Recovery Ahead?

Euroseas Ltd. provides ocean-going transportation services worldwide. The company owns and operates containerships that transport dry and refrigerated containerized cargoes, including manufactured products and perishables; and drybulk carriers that transport iron ore, coal, grains, bauxite, phosphate, and fertilizers. As of March 31, 2017, it had a fleet of seven containerships; and six drybulk carriers, including three Panamax drybulk carriers, one Handymax drybulk carrier, one Kamsarmax drybulk carrier, and one Ultramax drybulk carrier. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Maroussi, Greece.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adjusted 4Q2019 EBITDA, excluding dry dock expenses, was $2.7 million, or about $0.6 million below expectations.  4Q2019 gross TCE revenue of $13.2 million increased due to 307 higher ownership days and a $532 increase in TCE rates to $9,086/day.

Adjusting 2020 EBITDA estimate to reflect current container market fundamentals. Recent acquisitions will have a full impact on 2020 operating results and we are forecasting 2020 EBITDA of $15.3 million based on 6,695 operating days and TCE rates of $9.691/day versus our previous estimate of…



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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

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certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – NobleCon 16 Review – 4Q2019 Results Out Shortly

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

NobleCon 16 Review – 4Q2019 Results Out Shortly

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CFO Robert Tabb’s presentation at our NobleCon16 conference highlighted progress on the Invest, Scale and Grow (ISG) restructuring program and other positives, including the recent $47 million Industrial award.

Upcoming 4Q2019 operating results and earnings call should be well received. ORN reports tomorrow (2/26) AMC and will host a call on Thursday (2/27) at 10am EST. Call number is 201-493-6739 and code is Orion Group. We expect gross profit of $15.2 million and EBITDA of $8.2 million with gross margin of 9.5% and EBITDA margin of 5.1%. Seasonality exists but…



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Research – Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Underwhelming 4Q; Is the Future Brighter?

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Underwhelming 4Q; Is the Future Brighter?

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Underwhelming 4Q19. Kratos reported mixed 4Q19 results. Revenue came in at $185.1 million, below the $197 million consensus estimate, while adjusted EPS totaled $0.09, below the consensus $0.10 estimate. Full year revenue of $717.5 million was below the low-end of management’s $720-$740 million guidance, although 2019 adjusted EBITDA of $77.3 million was above the $71-$77 million guided range. Full year adjusted EPS totaled $0.34, up 41.7% from $0.24 in 2018.

Unmanned Still The Star. Unmanned Systems saw 2019 revenue jump 21.4% to $161.4 million. We continue to see positive momentum here, although timing of production awards, and thus significant revenue growth, is uncertain. We continue to believe Kratos has developed a valuable asset in…



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Opportunity Zone Investment Funds Provide a Triple Tax Break

Is the Triple-Tax Break for “Opportunity Zone” Investing Worthwhile?

In 2017, Congress passed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  Since the tax act passed, more than 500 qualified OZ funds have opened.  The fund’s popularity seems to be growing with some $2 billion of $6.7 billion invested in December alone.  As a rule, 90% of a fund must be invested in one of 8,700 qualified opportunity zones and receive at least 50% of the gross income from the zone.  Most of these funds are run by money managers and/or real estate developers. 

The funds allow investors to defer capital gains tax from stocks, real estate or other investments by rolling over the proceeds into an Opportunity Zone (OZ) fund that invest in low-income communities.  In addition to deferring capital gains taxes, investors may be able to reduce their cost basis and eliminate capital gains on any increase in value during the fund’s life.  Sound too good to be true? As you would expect, there are negative aspects associated with the funds, specifically high management costs and a loss of liquidity.  Still the funds may be worth considering for wealthy investors.

The Positive

Capital Gains are deferred.  Investors can defer federal capital gains tax by putting it into an OZ fund.  The funding investment could have been almost anything including stocks or real estate.  If the investor invests in the OZ fund within 180 days of the asset sale, he will be allowed to defer the payment of capital gains tax until the time the investment in the OZ fund is sold or until December 31, 2026.  Note that if the fund dissolves, capital gains will become due.  With the market near all-time highs, many investors would like to diversify away from the stock market or individual stocks that have performed well and become a larger part of their portfolio.  Investors may feel trapped into holding the stock because of large capital gains.  OZ funds allow the investor to exit the stock without large tax payments.  Investing in an OZ fund may also make sense for investors selling a real estate property with large capital gains who want more diversity than utilizing a 1031 exchange to purchase another real estate property.

Cost basis is reduced over time.  In addition to deferring an investment’s capital gains tax, investing in an OZ fund may even lower the tax.  Investors who hold the fund for five years get a 10% reduction on the capital gain.  If they hold the fund seven years, the reduction will increase to 15%.  However, the tax benefits end December 31, 2026 whether the investor has sold its ownership in the OZ fund or not.  Therefore, investors must invest in an OZ fund by December 31, 2021 to get the 10% reduction.  Investors must have already invested in the fund to qualify for the full exemption.

Capital gains of the fund may be eliminated.  As a final incentive, investors who invest in an OZ fund and hold it for ten years will get an additional tax benefit.  Any gain in the investment in the fund is tax free.  This is true even if the fund is sold after December 31, 2026.  So, for example, if an investor puts $5 million into a fund in 2020 and sells it in 2031 for $12 million, he will escape paying capital gains tax on $7 million.  He will have paid capital gains tax on December 31, 2026 for the capital gains from the initial investment that was deferred.

 

The Negative

Management costs are high.  The fee structure of an OZ fund is comparable to that of a hedge fund.  Typically, investors pay 1.5%-2.0% in expenses and 20% of any excess return over a designated return (6-10%). 

Investor must be accredited investors.  To qualify to invest in a fund, investor must have a net worth of $1 million (excluding primary residence) or have two consecutive years of at least $200,000 in annual income ($300,000 for joint filers).  Investors in OZ funds can invest in a fund only one time to defer capital gains tax, and the investment can’t exceed the proceeds from the sale of the original investment.   

There is a loss of liquidity associated with the funds.  Some funds require investors to hold their investment a full ten years.  Others allow investors to sell their investment in an OZ fund at any time.  Doing so, however, will often mean forfeiting tax breaks.  OZ funds should be viewed as a long-term investment with a time window of at least five years.

Short management track record.  OZ funds have been in existence for only three years.  As a result, the managers of these funds do not have a long track record on which an investor can make comparisons.  Many of these managers are long-time real estate managers who have been successful.  Others are not.  Investor should become familiar with a fund’s management team to decide if the large fees are justified.

 

Big Picture

Like most investments, there are positives and negatives associated with investing in an Opportunity Zone fund.  OZ funds offer a great way to defer and possibly avoid taxes.  On the other hand, the funds have large management fees and require long holding periods.  Investors should become familiar with the details of any OZ fund before considering an investment and consult their financial advisor and tax consultant to determine if the fund is appropriate for the investor.

 

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1fjptxryzv07y/Is-Anyone-Actually-Investing-in-Opportunity-Zone-Funds, Alicia McElhaney, Institutional Investor, May 23, 2019

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T041-C000-S002-opportunity-zone-investing-is-it-for-you.html, Ryan Ermey, Kiplinger, June 5, 2019

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/opportunity-zones-frequently-asked-questions, IRS

https://smartasset.com/investing/opportunity-zone-funds, Ashley Chorpenning, Smartasset, January 27, 2020.

https://www.fool.com/millionacres/taxes/complete-guide-real-estate-opportunity-zones/, Liz Brumer-Smith, millionacres

Research kratos defense security ktos underwhelming 4q is the future brighter

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Underwhelming 4Q; Is the Future Brighter?

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a National Security technology provider with proprietary expertise in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronics for missile defense systems, electronic warfare systems, satellite control and management systems and support services for emerging naval weapon systems. Commercial and state and local government revenues are about 25% of the total and comprise primarily of critical infrastructure monitoring and protection systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Underwhelming 4Q19. Kratos reported mixed 4Q19 results. Revenue came in at $185.1 million, below the $197 million consensus estimate, while adjusted EPS totaled $0.09, below the consensus $0.10 estimate. Full year revenue of $717.5 million was below the low-end of management’s $720-$740 million guidance, although 2019 adjusted EBITDA of $77.3 million was above the $71-$77 million guided range. Full year adjusted EPS totaled $0.34, up 41.7% from $0.24 in 2018.

Unmanned Still The Star. Unmanned Systems saw 2019 revenue jump 21.4% to $161.4 million. We continue to see positive momentum here, although timing of production awards, and thus significant revenue growth, is uncertain. We continue to believe Kratos has developed a valuable asset in…



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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research orion group holdings orn noblecon 16 review 4q2019 results out shortly

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

NobleCon 16 Review – 4Q2019 Results Out Shortly

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CFO Robert Tabb’s presentation at our NobleCon16 conference highlighted progress on the Invest, Scale and Grow (ISG) restructuring program and other positives, including the recent $47 million Industrial award.

Upcoming 4Q2019 operating results and earnings call should be well received. ORN reports tomorrow (2/26) AMC and will host a call on Thursday (2/27) at 10am EST. Call number is 201-493-6739 and code is Orion Group. We expect gross profit of $15.2 million and EBITDA of $8.2 million with gross margin of 9.5% and EBITDA margin of 5.1%. Seasonality exists but…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
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Research kelly services inc- kelya noblecon 16 review

Monday, February 24, 2020

Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA)

NobleCon 16 Review

Kelly Services Inc is a provider of workforce solutions and consulting and staffing services. The company’s operations are divided into three business segments namely Americas Staffing, Global Talent Solutions (“GTS”) and International Staffing. It provides staffing solutions through its branch networks in Americas and International operations and also provides a suite of innovative talent fulfilment and outcome-based solutions through GTS segment. Americas Staffing generates maximum revenue from its operations.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon 16 Presentation. Kelly management presented at NobleCon 16 with the presentation focused on the new strategy, end markets, implementation, and what’s next for Kelly.

Highlights.  Over the past 120 days management set a operating strategy designed to accelerate specialty growth and improve profitability. Through both an organic and more aggressive inorganic expansion, we believe Kelly has the right model to…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research cumulus media inc- cmls a towering opportunity

Monday, February 24, 2020

Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS)

A Towering Opportunity

CUMULUS MEDIA, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMLS) is a leading audio-first media and entertainment company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. CUMULUS MEDIA engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 428 owned-and-operated stations across 87 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, the Olympics, the GRAMMYS, the American Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across nearly 8,000 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. CUMULUS MEDIA provides advertisers with local impact and national reach through on-air, digital, mobile, and voice-activated media solutions, as well as access to integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, and live event experiences. CUMULUS MEDIA is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overachieves expectations. Fourth quarter 2019 results were better than expected with revenues of $285.5 million (better than our $279.0 million estimate) and cash flow of $44.9 million versus our $41.9 million estimate.

Digital continues to be on fire. Digital revenues increased 38.2% to $21.6 million (better than our $16.5 million estimate) and follows a trend of…



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Research coeur mining cde focusing on the real value drivers

Monday, February 24, 2020

Coeur Mining (CDE)

Focusing on the Real Value Drivers

Coeur Mining Inc is a metals producer focused on mining precious minerals in the Americas. It is involved in the discovery and mining of gold and silver and generates the vast majority of revenue from the sale of these precious metals. The operating mines of the company are palmarejo, rochester, wharf, and kensington. Its projects are located in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and North America.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CDE reports full year 2019 earnings.  On an adjusted basis, the company reported fourth quarter and full year losses per share of ($0.01) and ($0.25), respectively, compared to our estimates of ($0.06) and ($0.30). Positive fair value adjustments and a tax benefit accounted for the variance to our estimate. Fourth quarter and full year EBITDA were $59.8 million and $173.9 million, respectively. Including non-cash write downs of inventory and asset impairments, the company reported fourth quarter and full year losses per share of ($1.13) and ($1.59), respectively.

Production guidance for 2020. Coeur expects to produce 10.3 million to 13.3 million ounces of silver and 317,000 to 363,000 ounces of gold. In 2019, the company produced 11.7 million ounces of silver, 359,418 ounces of gold, 17.1 million pounds of zinc and 16.6 million pounds of lead. The company is suspending operations at the Silvertip mine due an inability to turn a profit at current zinc and…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research – Coeur Mining (CDE) – Focusing on the Real Value Drivers

Monday, February 24, 2020

Coeur Mining (CDE)

Focusing on the Real Value Drivers

Coeur Mining Inc is a metals producer focused on mining precious minerals in the Americas. It is involved in the discovery and mining of gold and silver and generates the vast majority of revenue from the sale of these precious metals. The operating mines of the company are palmarejo, rochester, wharf, and kensington. Its projects are located in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and North America.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CDE reports full year 2019 earnings.  On an adjusted basis, the company reported fourth quarter and full year losses per share of ($0.01) and ($0.25), respectively, compared to our estimates of ($0.06) and ($0.30). Positive fair value adjustments and a tax benefit accounted for the variance to our estimate. Fourth quarter and full year EBITDA were $59.8 million and $173.9 million, respectively. Including non-cash write downs of inventory and asset impairments, the company reported fourth quarter and full year losses per share of ($1.13) and ($1.59), respectively.

Production guidance for 2020. Coeur expects to produce 10.3 million to 13.3 million ounces of silver and 317,000 to 363,000 ounces of gold. In 2019, the company produced 11.7 million ounces of silver, 359,418 ounces of gold, 17.1 million pounds of zinc and 16.6 million pounds of lead. The company is suspending operations at the Silvertip mine due an inability to turn a profit at current zinc and…



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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research – Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA) – NobleCon 16 Review

Monday, February 24, 2020

Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA)

NobleCon 16 Review

Kelly Services Inc is a provider of workforce solutions and consulting and staffing services. The company’s operations are divided into three business segments namely Americas Staffing, Global Talent Solutions (“GTS”) and International Staffing. It provides staffing solutions through its branch networks in Americas and International operations and also provides a suite of innovative talent fulfilment and outcome-based solutions through GTS segment. Americas Staffing generates maximum revenue from its operations.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon 16 Presentation. Kelly management presented at NobleCon 16 with the presentation focused on the new strategy, end markets, implementation, and what’s next for Kelly.

Highlights.  Over the past 120 days management set a operating strategy designed to accelerate specialty growth and improve profitability. Through both an organic and more aggressive inorganic expansion, we believe Kelly has the right model to…



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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) – A Towering Opportunity

Monday, February 24, 2020

Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS)

A Towering Opportunity

CUMULUS MEDIA, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMLS) is a leading audio-first media and entertainment company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. CUMULUS MEDIA engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 428 owned-and-operated stations across 87 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, the Olympics, the GRAMMYS, the American Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across nearly 8,000 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. CUMULUS MEDIA provides advertisers with local impact and national reach through on-air, digital, mobile, and voice-activated media solutions, as well as access to integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, and live event experiences. CUMULUS MEDIA is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overachieves expectations. Fourth quarter 2019 results were better than expected with revenues of $285.5 million (better than our $279.0 million estimate) and cash flow of $44.9 million versus our $41.9 million estimate.

Digital continues to be on fire. Digital revenues increased 38.2% to $21.6 million (better than our $16.5 million estimate) and follows a trend of…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.