Research – Coeur Mining (CDE) – Exploration Efforts to Increase in 2020; Focus on Resource Discovery and Conversion

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Coeur Mining (CDE)

Exploration Efforts to Increase in 2020; Focus on Resource Discovery and Conversion

Coeur Mining Inc is a metals producer focused on mining precious minerals in the Americas. It is involved in the discovery and mining of gold and silver and generates the vast majority of revenue from the sale of these precious metals. The operating mines of the company are palmarejo, rochester, wharf, and kensington. Its projects are located in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and North America.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Coeur releases updates on 2019 exploration program. The central message is that management considered the 2019 exploration program productive, particularly with respect to expansion drilling at Palmarejo, Kensington, Silvertip, and the Sterling and Crown Block properties. Spending was lower in 2019 versus the prior year due to a greater focus on near-mine exploration and the company intends to focus on discovering new resources and converting resources to reserves in 2020.

Exploration expenditures expected to increase in 2020. Coeur expects full year spending in 2019 to be $26 million to $34 million versus $41.9 million and $44.0 million in 2017 and 2018, respectively. We think 2020 spending will be more in line with 2017 and 2018 based on more expansion drilling. We do not expect much change in…



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Improving Economy with Production Cuts are Pushing Oil Prices Higher

Improving Economy with Production Cuts are Pushing Oil Prices Higher

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WTI Crude prices have mounted a rally over the last 80 days, slowly rising from a price of $53 per barrel at the end of September to a current price above $60 per BBL.    There are many reasons for recent strength, some supply related and some demand related.  However, oil prices are not simply a function of supply and demand.  Note that the rise in oil prices has occurred at the same time oil inventories have also risen.  Instead, oil prices are set by investors who are speculating about future demand and future supply, and investor sentiment is not always easy to measure.  Does the rise in oil prices support the bull’s arguments for further increases in oil prices?  Or, is the rise based on temporary factors that support the bear’s argument that the rise in prices will be short-lived?


Research – QuoteMedia (QMCI) – Among Our Candidates For Most Likely To Succeed in 2020

Thursday, December 19, 2019

QuoteMedia (QMCI)

Among Our Candidates For Most Likely To Succeed in 2020

QuoteMedia, based in Fountain Hills, Arizona, provides cloud-based financial data, market news feeds, and financial software solutions.  Its customers include financial service companies, online brokerages, clearing firms, banks, media portals, public corporations and individual investors.  The company provides a single source solution providing products such as streaming quotes, charting, historical data, technical analysis, news and research.  Information can customized and provided to multiple platforms including terminals and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Tweaking our full year 2019 and 2020 estimates slightly upward. Based on our Q4 adj. EBITDA estimate of $463,000, our full year 2019 cash flow estimate is $2.06 million. We anticipate that full year 2020 cash flow will decline 10% to $1.84 million, up roughly $200,000 from our previous estimate of $1.63 million.

Upside to our estimates. Our 2020 estimates could prove to be conservative should the company slow investment spend and/or obtain a significant client win. At this point, upside revenue visibility is low and…



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Research – ProMis Neuroscience (PMN:CA) – What Does Biogen’s Progress Mean for ProMIS?

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. (PMN:CA)

What Does Biogen’s Progress Mean for ProMIS?

ProMIS Neurosciences, Inc., a development stage biotech company, discovers and develops precision medicine therapeutics for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, primarily Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Its proprietary target discovery engine is based on the use of two complementary techniques. The company applies its thermodynamic, computational discovery platform—ProMIS and Collective Coordinates to predict novel targets known as Disease Specific Epitopes (DSEs) on the molecular surface of misfolded proteins. Its lead product candidates include PMN310, a monoclonal antibody for AD; PMN350, a monoclonal antibody for AD; and PMN330, a monoclonal antibody targeting toxic prionlike forms of AßO for AD. The company is also developing prospect therapies targeting the neurotoxic form of the tau protein in AD; and superoxide dismutase 1 and TAR-DNA binding protein 43 in ALS and frontotemporal dementia, as well as alpha synuclein in Parkinson’s disease and Lewy body dementia. The company was formerly known as Amorfix Life Sciences Ltd. and changed its name to ProMIS Neurosciences, Inc. in July 2015. ProMIS Neurosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Cosme Ordonez, MD, Ph.D., Senior Life Sciences Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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ProMIS issues White Paper. ProMIS Neurosciences issued a white paper discussing data released by Biogen (a competitor in the field) from two Phase III clinical trials on the use of aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.

Impact of Biogen’s recent developments. Going into the new year, all eyes will be on Biogen, which is the leader competitor in Alzheimer’s. In a recent reversal of fortunes, Biogen’s management has revived its Alzheimer’s program. Based on recent data, Biogen now plans to file for FDA approval of aducanumab early next year. We believe Biogen’s progress will have a positive impact on ProMIS’s…


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Research – One Stop Systems (OSS) – Price Decline Presents Favorable Risk/Reward Opportunity

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

One Stop Systems Inc. (OSS)

Price Decline Presents Favorable Risk/Reward Opportunity

One Stop Systems Inc is US-based company which is principally engaged in designing, manufacturing, marketing high-end systems for high performance computing (HPC) applications. The company offers custom servers, compute accelerators, solid-state storage arrays and system expansion systems. The product line of the company includes GPU Appliances, GPU Expansion, GPUs and co-processors, Flash storage arrays, Flash storage expansion, Servers, Disk Arrays, Desktop computing appliances, accessories and parts. The company delivers high-end technology to customers through the sale of equipment and software for use on their premises or through remote cloud access to secure data centres housing technology.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Risk/Reward Opportunity Favorable. Trading at $1.72, down from $3.07 a little over two months ago, OSS shares present a favorable risk/reward opportunity, in our view. At the current price, OSS shares are now trading at less than 0.5x our 2019 projected revenue and less than 10x our projected EBITDA for the year.

Insider Buying a Positive. Through a series of purchases this month, Director David Raun increased his overall OSS holdings by 49% to 40,410 shares. The shares were acquired at prices ranging from $1.70 to $1.86 per share. Notably, Mr. Raun is the former CEO of PLX Technology, which was a leading manufacturer of PCI Express switches and…



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Should the SEC Relax Requirements for Accredited Investors?

Should the SEC Relax Requirements for Accredited Investors?

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In June of 2019, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a concept release asking for comments on ways to simplify, harmonize, and improve the exempt offering framework to promote capital formation and expand investment opportunities while maintaining investor protections.  Under the Securities Act of 1933, every offer and sale of securities must be registered with the SEC unless an exemption from registration is available.  The release addresses concepts applicable to exempt offerings, including accredited investor qualification.  The SEC is interested in whether additional categories should be included as accredited investors, whether financial threshold requirements should be revised, whether alternative sophistication measures should be used to qualify investors as accredited, and whether a broader range of investment opportunities should be made available to non-accredited investors.  While the current framework permits non-accredited investors limited access to unregistered offerings, investments in exempt offerings in which non-accredited investors participated represented less than 1% of investment in all exempt offerings in 2018.  Below we examine the bull and bear arguments for expanding the definition of an accredited investor.

Aramco Goes Public in the Same Week Chevron Announces a Large Write Down

$25 Billion Created While $11 Billion Destroyed: What’s going on with energy stocks?

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On Tuesday, Chevron indicated it would write down assets by $10 billion to $11 billion to reflect lower energy prices and decreased expected asset returns.  The write-down would be one of the largest on record, rivaling some of the write downs taken by large banks during the financial crisis.  On Wednesday, Saudi Arabian oil company Aramco raised $25.6 billion in an IPO of 1.5% of the company’s stock.  The new Aramco stock rose 20% in the first two days of trading on the Saudi stock exchange and ended with a market value above $2.0 trillion, making it the most valuable public company.  So how should an energy investor view these two events?  Does the Aramco IPO show that there is demand for energy stocks, or is it drawing investors away from other energy stocks?  Does the Chevron write down indicate further weakness in the sector, or has the market already factored the asset value decline given recent underperformance?

Source: CNBC, XLE Energy Index versus SPDRs YTD

Putting the “Supplemental” Back into Non-GAAP Disclosures

Is Corporate Financial Reporting at Risk of Losing Integrity?

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Public companies are required to use Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) established by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).  Companies often report non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and, amortization (EBITDA) as a supplement to GAAP financial measures.  There has been considerable debate about companies that use non-GAAP metrics for executive compensation and whether firms may manipulate metrics to boost compensation or meet terms of debt agreements or covenants that are based on EBITDA.  In 2015, the Securities and Exchange Commission Chair expressed concern about the use of unaudited performance figures and the potential for non-GAAP information to become the key message to investors thus supplanting the GAAP presentation.  Should there be more restrictions on the use of non-GAAP financial reporting or greater standardization?  Below are the bull and bear cases for reporting non-GAAP financial information.

Red-hot Biotech Stocks Boosting Small Cap Index

Red-hot Biotech Stocks Boosting Small Cap Indexes in Q4

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Redhot Biotech
Stocks Boosting Small Cap Indexes in Q4

As of December 3, Russell 2000 Index (RUT, +7.3), which is a benchmark for small-cap stocks, is outperforming the S&P 500 (SP50, +5.2%) and Russell 3000 (RUA, +5.5%) benchmark indices in Q4 2019 (Exhibit 1). The Russell 2000 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index measuring the performance of approximately 2,000 small cap American companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which includes 3,000 largest cap U.S. stocks (adjusted annually).

Exhibit 1: Russell 2000 Relative Price
Performance, Q4 2019 (as of 12/3/2019)

Unsupported image type.

Source: CapitalIQ

The Russell 2000 index achieved a new 52-week high on November 27 (1,634.1).  The strong performance is primarily attributed to the strength in the biotechnology and financial sectors. Biotechnology is a major driver for recent gains. These sectors are heavily weighted in the Russell 2000 index with 26% for financials and 15% healthcare (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Sector
Weightings for The Russell 2000

 

Unsupported image type.

Source: New
York University Stern School of Business, FTSE Russell

Thus far, the data demonstrates a positive change in sentiment by biotechnology investors as the sector surged in Q4, in stern contrast with the relative underperformance seen in the first three quarters of 2019. Both NYSE Arca Biotechnology (BTK, 20.6%) and NASDAQ Biotechnology (NBI, +21.7%) indices have outperformed the S&P 500 (SP50, +5.2%) and Russell 3000 (RUA, +5.5%) indices by a significant margin in Q4 2019 (as of December 3, 2019) (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: Biotechnology Relative Price
Performance Q4 2019 (as of 12/3/2019)

Unsupported image type.

Source: CapitalIQ

 

As the biotechnology sector soared and small-cap stocks outpaced the broader markets, picking the next gemstone in small/micro-cap biotechs could generate high cumulative returns for investors. 

Research – Energy Services of America (ESOA) – Solid Finish to Fiscal Year 2019 and Special Dividend Announced

Friday, December 13, 2019

Energy Services of America (ESOA)

Solid Finish to Fiscal Year 2019 and Special Dividend Announced.

Energy Services of America Corporation is engaged in providing contracting services for energy-related companies. The company is primarily engaged in the construction, replacement, and repair of natural gas pipelines and storage facilities for utility companies and private natural gas companies. It services the gas, petroleum, power, chemical and automotive industries, and does incidental work such as water and sewer projects. Energy Service’s other services include liquid pipeline construction, pump station construction, production facility construction, water and sewer pipeline installations, various maintenance and repair services and other services related to pipeline construction.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Solid End to fiscal year with results above expectations. FY2019 EBITDA of $8.0 million was above our estimate of $6.6 million estimate due to lower costs that more than offset lower revenue. The completion of the Goff project had a slightLY negative impact, but margins were higher than expected; gross margin was 7.3% (+87 basis points) and EBITDA margin was 4.6% (+85 basis points). The current backlog of $63 million was up $8 million higher than 3Q2019.

Increasing FY2020 EBITDA to reflect positive finish to FY2019. Assuming no weather and/or operating miscues, we forecast that FY2020 EBITDA will move up to $8.6 million based on EBITDA margin of 5.6%, which is…




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Research – DLH Holdings Corp (DLHC): Well Positioned to Capitalize on Government Services Trends

Friday, December 13, 2019


DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

Well Positioned to Capitalize on Government Services Trends

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Well Positioned. With the S3 acquisition, DLH is well positioned to compete on an increasing opportunity set, in our view. DLH’s expanded core competencies dovetail nicely with key trends in the government services market, especially in DLH’s core agencies such as the Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Health and Human Services, and public health and life sciences agencies.

Favorable End Markets. The recent Budget deal, if enacted, increases funding to DLH’s core end markets: the VA by 9.6%, DoD by 5%, and HHS by 4.4%, with even higher increases at sub agencies. The increased spending should…



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Research – DLH (DLHC): Another Solid Quarter with Revenue Topping Expectations

Thursday, December 12, 2019

DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

Another Solid Quarter with Revenue Topping Expectations

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of Defense and other government agencies. It operates primarily through prime contracts and also derives its revenue from agencies of the federal government, primarily as a prime contractor but also as a subcontractor to other Federal prime contractors.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q19 Results. Fourth quarter revenue came in at $54.2 million and diluted EPS was $0.12. We were at $51.3 million and $0.13, respectively. The quarterly revenue exceeded management’s preliminary October expectation. Full year revenue totaled $160.4 million and diluted EPS was $0.41. Excluding transaction-related expenses, non-GAAP EPS was $0.49 for FY2019.

Organic Growth A Positive. As expected, the majority of the year-over-year revenue growth was driven by the S3 acquisition, but DLH also delivered organic growth of approximately…



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Finding a Cure for AIDS Part II (Dec. 2019)

A Cure For HIV Infection, Promise or Reality?

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Balanced section.)

Anti-retroviral therapy (ART), or highly-active-antiretroviral therapy (HAART), is effective in halting the progression of HIV infection (a disease affecting nearly 40 million persons worldwide). However, HAART does not cure the disease as the HIV virus, despite of the treatment, remains hidden in the human body. In 2018, Gilead’s Genvoya and GlaxoSmithKline’s Triumeq, the two top selling ART drugs, had annual sales of $4.62 billion and $3.36 billion, respectively. Notwithstanding their commercial success, these medicines do not cure the disease. The HIV virus often remains hidden in the human body in reservoirs such as dendritic cells, macrophages, and CD4+ lymphocytes. Resistance to treatment, side effects of HAART, stigma, and the cumbersome need for lifelong therapy are all important issues highlighting the need for a cure. If a patient interrupts antiretroviral therapy, the viral infection comes back. Since HIV was first detected in 1983, the medical community have intensively searched for a cure for this disease.

 

The Story of the Berlin
Patient

In 2007, Timothy Ray Brown, an American studying in Berlin, Germany, was treated with a hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Two years earlier, Mr. Brown had been diagnosed with a type of blood cancer known as acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Besides its cancer diagnosis, Timothy was infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Dr. Gero Hütter, a German doctor from the Charité Hospital, Berlin University of Medicine, performed the transplant. Before seeing Timothy, Dr. Hütter had never treated an HIV patient, but he had learned about a rare genetic mutation causing natural resistance to HIV infection. Based on this information, Dr. Hütter found a stem-cell donor carrying this specific mutation. He performed the transplant on Mr. Brown using these mutated cells.

 

The procedure resulted in a surprising outcome. Timothy’s HIV infection disappeared after the transplant. The HIV virus could not be detected on his blood, not even with the most sensitive diagnostic techniques such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods. Timothy Ray Brown was cured of his HIV infection. He became famous in the medical community. Timothy is now known as the Berlin patient. The story of the Berlin patient triggered significant interest in both academy and industry, setting off a gold rush to find a sterilizing cure for HIV infection. Timothy’s transplant treatment was done from a donor carrying a mutation in a gene known as CCR5, which happens to be the site of entry utilized by HIV virus to infect immune system cells (New England Journal of Medicine 2009, 360, 692-698). The CCR5 protein receptor is expressed on the surface of lymphocytes T, which are the primary cells targeted by HIV virus. Two cell receptors, CD4+ and CCR5, are utilized by HIV to enter the cell. The virus cannot enter and infect cells with a defective CCR5 receptor.

As a result of CCR5 mutation (no site of entry), HIV cannot find a home, the patient’s viral load gradually decreases, and eventually the virus fizzles out. This is probably what transpired during Mr. Brown’ treatment procedure. The virus became undetectable in Timothy’s body. He stopped taking any medication for HIV, although he continued to undergo treatment for his blood cancer. Timothy has remained HIV negative for 12 years now. He has been cured from his HIV infection.