Research – Comtech (CMTL) – Satellite Ground Equipment Acquisition

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (CMTL)

Satellite Ground Equipment Acquisition

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long-distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs develop, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

UHP Networks Acquisition.  Last week, Comtech announced it has agreed to acquire UHP Networks for $40 million. UHP is a leading provider of innovative and disruptive satellite ground station technology solutions. Financial and other information about the transaction will be provided on the 1Q20 conference call, which was December 6th last year.

Fast Growing. While we await additional info on the financials, we would note that UHP announced record sales results in 2017, confirming its reputation as the world’s fastest-growing VSAT technology. Company revenue has been growing at more than 40% CAGR over the last three years and…




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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – Akazoo (SONG) – Creating A New Vibe On Messaging

Wednesday November 27, 2019

Akazoo (SONG)

Creating A New Vibe On Messaging

Akazoo is a global, on-demand music and audio streaming and media and AI technology company, founded in 2010, with a focus on emerging markets and a presence in 25 countries. Akazoo’s premium service provides subscribers with unlimited online and offline high-quality music streaming access to a catalog of over 45 million songs on an ad-free basis. Akazoo uses patented AI for music recommendations and offers online and offline listening. Akazoo’s free, ad-supported radio service consists of over 80,000 stations and exists as a separate service and application. As consumers across the globe continue to shift their media consumption to mobile devices, Akazoo is equipped with a world-class mobile application and user experience which works seamlessly across a multitude of mobile devices and provides a high-quality user experience across a range of mobile networks from 2g to 4g LTE and soon 5g.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers music content on a messaging service. Akazoo inked an agreement with Rakuten Viber, one of the world’s largest messaging and voice over IP services with over 1 billion users, to deliver music content and lyrics. We believe that the agreement is among the first of its kind and could lead to agreements with other messaging providers.

Enhances in-market footprint.  Akazoo is in the majority of Viber’s 17 markets, which should provide enhanced opportunities to…



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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Is Tesla’s Cybertruck a Turkey?

Is Tesla’s Cybertruck a Turkey?

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
story [desktop version]. This article uses third-party references to provide a
bullish, bearish, and balanced point of view; sources are listed after the
Balanced section.)

One of the topics that is sure to make its way to dinner conversations across the U.S. this holiday season will be about Tesla’s Cybertruck.  Elon Musk unveiled and announced last week the car company, Tesla, would begin to take orders on their latest entry into the electric vehicle market. Musk’s presentation at the LA Auto Show created quite a buzz, both in the room and on most forms of news outlets. 

National news stations, business news, and bloggers with audiences as diverse as tech, hot rods, and even Congressman Thomas Massie, expressed strong opinions on both the vehicle and the announcement. Some of the reports raved about the design and the way the Cybertruck was revealed. Others made fun of the truck and aspects of his demonstration. Watercooler debates about both the style and delivery quickly ensued in workplaces throughout the country.

Should Tesla have tailored the design and presentation to be more in line with traditional car show announcements?

The “Pilgrims” of Today

The “Pilgrims” of
Today

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
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bullish, bearish, and balanced point of view; sources are listed after the
Balanced section.)

This week, across the U.S., families and friends, young and old, will gather to celebrate the “most American” of holidays, Thanksgiving. The gatherings will most surely include traditional foods of the holiday while families enjoy their own tradition of sharing and gratitude. Thoughts may also drift to almost 400 years ago when in 1621 a determined group of 102 Pilgrims persevered to achieve a mission they believed in – an accomplishment that has had a positive impact for centuries. They met challenges from the very beginning during their two-month-long voyage on the Mayflower, and they struggled as the first Winter took the lives of half the population of settlers. These resolute individuals share many of the same characteristics as today’s newer business owners who are making sacrifices in their own lives, for a better tomorrow for themselves and their descendants. 

Dictionary.com has four definitions for the word “entrepreneur,” the first reads: “a person who organizes and manages any enterprise, especially a business, usually with considerable initiative and risk.” It’s not a stretch to call the original settlers of Plymouth Massachusetts entrepreneurs.   Their grit, ingenuity, initiative, and even willingness to learn and rely on others more experienced in their environment, was certainly entrepreneurial.

The Mayflower colonists did not go by the moniker “Pilgrims,” that tag came 200 years after their landing at Plymouth Rock. Instead they referred to themselves as the “Saints”  to indicate their purity and feelings of being special or chosen. This feeling must have been a strong driver as they risked so much in a way that is extreme by any standard in modern America.

Today’s Pilgrims

The risk-takers today, at least those looking to sacrifice more than others for the dream of a better tomorrow, whether for themselves and their families, or for the world at large, are the business entrepreneurs. Especially in fields that are “uncharted territory.” Some examples are companies relying on developing technology, scientific breakthroughs, or mineral exploration. As with most “firsts” there are always unknowns, long lead times before any profit, and a shortage of capital. These are among reasons building a business today, particularly in a groundbreaking field with unproven outcome, is a path taken by very few. Those that do, and then survive and thrive, have embraced being nimble, building alliances, persistence, belief in themselves, and asking for help when needed. 

“All great and honorable actions are accompanied with great difficulties, and both must be enterprised and overcome with answerable courage.” 
William Bradford, Second Governor, Plymouth Colony

 

Flexibility

The Pilgrims initially went to Holland where they expected to be welcomed by people of different religions.  Their main reason for having left England was to worship without constraints. The Pilgrims made their home at first in Holland, but the more secular life they found there was not going to lead to a future that matched their vision. They wanted to build their own colony where they would attract others who believed as they did – even if it meant starting with close to nothing.  As entrepreneurs, they didn’t accept an undesirable outcome; they pivoted, changed their plans and redirected their effort, deciding to establish themselves and their future near Virginia’s Hudson River. While traveling, storms pushed them into Massachusetts where they decided to rethink their plan once again. They then revised their plan and decided to find an area close to where they landed that would be suitable for farming.

To begin the two-month trip across the Atlantic, the Pilgrims borrowed money that, at the time, was an astronomical amount. The loan from, English capitalists looking to profit off the venture, was for 1700 pounds. At the time, the average Englishman earned a tenth of a pound per day. As colonists they first worked collectively to pay back this loan. They later divided acreage to work individually at farming their own land.

Alliances

After the first brutal Winter, the Pilgrims, who raised money in a business arrangement to finance their journey, again opened themselves up to being helped. This time by native Americans. They learned how to best plant corn, where to fish, how to trap beaver and other furs.  This helped lead the pilgrims to an abundance just one year later and a profit their second year. Their debt was fully paid off in 23 years.

There are now over 10 million living Americans who are descendants of the Mayflower passengers. The undeniable traits of the entrepreneurs we now call Pilgrims have impacted the world. Entrepreneurs of today share the same traits and skills of those that came before; intention toward a dream, plan, persevere, adjust, negotiate, orchestrate help, and implement. The impact of entrepreneurs continues to shape the world and continue to have a positive impact on the future with their efforts.

Giving Thanks

Ideas have the ability to change the world. Those ideas  that improve lives and positively impact the world are on the list of things we can  be thankful for.

https://www.history.com/topics/colonial-america/mayflowerhttps://www.reference.com/history/did-pilgrims-holland-873ed8cabf62ca05

https://www.reference.com/history/did-pilgrims-holland-873ed8cabf62ca05

 

https://www.history.com/topics/colonial-america/mayflower

 

 

Author: Paul S. Hoffman

Research – Information Services (III) – RPA Market Continues to Attract Investors

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Information Services Group Inc. (III)

RPA Market Continues to Attract Investors

Information Services Group (ISG) (III) is a leading technology insights, market intelligence and advisory services company, serving more than 500 clients around the world to help them achieve operational excellence. ISG supports private and public sector organizations to transform and optimize their operational environments through research, benchmarking, consulting and managed services, with a focus on information technology, business process transformation, program management services and enterprise resource planning.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Automation Anywhere Raise Highlights Value of RPA Business.  Last week Automation Anywhere announced it had raised $290 million at a $6.8 billion valuation, which is up nearly 3-fold from the $2.6 billion valuations used in last November’s rise. The jump in valuation highlights the strong investor interest in the RPA space.

Microsoft Validation.  Microsoft recently announced that it was entering the robotic process automation business, providing validation of the marketplace, in our opinion. Notably, RPA is the fastest-growing segment in…


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*Analyst
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – Euroseas (ESEA) – 3Q2019 Results In Line. Another Acquisition Adds Scale

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA)

3Q2019 Results In Line. Another Acquisition Adds Scale

Euroseas Ltd. provides ocean-going transportation services worldwide. The company owns and operates containerships that transport dry and refrigerated containerized cargoes, including manufactured products and perishables; and drybulk carriers that transport iron ore, coal, grains, bauxite, phosphate, and fertilizers. As of March 31, 2017, it had a fleet of seven containerships; and six drybulk carriers, including three Panamax drybulk carriers, one Handymax drybulk carrier, one Kamsarmax drybulk carrier, and one Ultramax drybulk carrier. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Maroussi, Greece.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

3Q2019 results stabilized in challenging container market.  Adjusted EBITDA, excluding dry dock expenses, of $2.0 million was slightly below our estimate of $2.1 million, mainly due to higher opex, which more than offset higher revenue.

Fine-tuning 2019 EBITDA estimate to reflect quarterly results and acquisitions.  To incorporate quarterly results and acquisition timing, adjusted EBITDA estimate (excluding dry dock expenses) moves to $9.0 million, down from our previous estimate of $9.3 million, and…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Research – Dyadic (DYAI) – Step Closer to Generating Human-like Proteins with C1 Platform

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Dyadic International Inc. (DYAI)

Step Closer to Generating Human-like Proteins with C1 Platform

Dyadic International, Inc. is a global biotechnology company which is developing what it believes will be a potentially significant biopharmaceutical gene expression platform based on the industrially proven hyper productive engineered fungus Thermothelomyces heterothallica (formerly Myceliophthora thermophila), named C1.
The C1 microorganism, which enables the development and large scale manufacture of low cost proteins, has the potential to be further developed into a safe and efficient expression system that may help speed up the development, lower production costs and improve the performance of biologic vaccines and drugs at flexible commercial scales. Dyadic is using the C1 technology and other technologies to conduct research, development and commercial activities for the development and manufacturing of human and animal vaccines and drugs, such as virus like particles (VLPs) and antigens, monoclonal antibodies, Fab antibody fragments, Fc-Fusion proteins, biosimilars and/or biobetters, and other therapeutic proteins. Dyadic pursues research and development collaborations, licensing arrangements and other commercial opportunities with its partners and collaborators to leverage the value and benefits of these technologies in development and manufacture of biopharmaceuticals. In particular, as the aging population grows in developed and undeveloped countries, Dyadic believes the C1 technology may help bring biologic vaccines, drugs and other biologic products to market faster, in greater volumes, at lower cost, and with new properties to drug developers and manufacturers, and improve access and cost to patients and the healthcare system, but most importantly save lives.

Ahu Demir, Ph.D., Biotechnology Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A building block for human glycan is produced by the C1 platform.  Dyadic’s research partner VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) presented data showing expression of the building block (G0 glycan) of human-like glycoproteins (at 94% relative expression). We think this is a key milestone for the company to validate the C1 platform in bioproduction.

Expressing human-like proteins is insight. Glycoproteins, such as monoclonal antibodies, are proteins that have sugars (glycans) attached to them. The majority (over 50%) of the biologics, sales of which are expected to grow to 300 billion by 2022, are glycoproteins. Glycoengineering is crucial in drug development, as glycans have marked effects on stability, activity, antigenicity, and…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Should Investors be Wary of the Companies Raising Dividends?

Should Investors be Wary of the Companies Raising Dividends?

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
story [desktop version]. This article uses third-party references to provide a
bullish, bearish, and balanced point of view; sources are listed after the
Balanced section.)

Everyone loves a dividend increase. Right?  After all, it puts more money into the hands of investors and who doesn’t like more money?  But in doing so, management is foregoing using capital that could repurchase shares, pay down debt, or invest in future growth opportunities.  Is raising a company’s dividend a sign of improved company health? Or is it a sign that management does not have better options? 

Is Company Sponsored Research the Future for Small-Cap Stock Investors?

Is Company Sponsored Research the Future for Small-Cap Stock Investors?

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
story [desktop version]. This article uses third-party references to provide a
bullish, bearish, and balanced point of view; sources are listed after the
Balanced section.)

Publicly traded companies are required to provide quarterly information to the public. This includes most categories of small-cap stocks and many micro-caps that are traded over-the-counter (OTC) trading on a regulated stock exchange. These SEC required reports provide a basis for investors to look back on company data. When financial data is compared to historical trends, weighed against industry growth and ratios, then subjected to “what-if” scenarios, the information becomes analysis. To qualify as research, the analysis is put under a spotlight along with evaluating the strength of management, intangible assets such as patents, market positioning, and a variety of other considerations.

Awareness of the investment opportunities these companies represent is typically low. Companies with a low market capitalization can benefit from any quality research published on their companies, their products, and their economic prospects. This is because any publication which provides a heightened understanding of a company may create interest that leads to added liquidity and aid to the market’s price discovery of the stocks’ best valuation.

In the past, small and micro-cap companies have benefited from coverage at research departments of broker/dealers who had the capacity to provide financial research. The motivation for these research departments to provide in-depth expensive research was often to act as a door opener for other lines of business (quid-pro-quo.) This introduces some risk of compromised integrity, the practice has been prevalent from sell-side research of public companies, of all sizes, for decades. A well-known example of how this could damage investors in a large well-known company is the collapse of Enron. The New York Times wrote:
Lawmakers investigating the collapse of Enron turned their attention to Wall Street today, criticizing financial analysts for continuing to urge investors to buy Enron stock even as the company headed toward bankruptcy. Several members of Congress suggested that Wall Street firms’ hunger for investment banking business and other conflicts kept them from leveling with investors.” (NYT 2/27/02) The Wall Street Journal echoed this sentiment: “Some financial firms have said they felt obliged to participate in the partnerships in order to remain in the running for underwriting assignments from Enron.” (WSJ 2/8/02) “Complimentary” broker/dealer research of smaller companies pose a similar risk, however, when problems occur for investors, they are unlikely to get the attention of large news outlets.

From the point of view of some broker/dealers that provide complimentary research on behalf of less active companies, they are beginning to find the practice of not charging to do high-level research on these companies may cost more than the overall benefit derived. The quid-pro-quo, or “this for that” often does not have enough “that” to warrant “this” in their soft-dollar exchange. One overshadowing reason is the popularity of investment funds that are managed with the objective of providing returns mimicking a stock index. These indexed Mutual Funds (MF) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) provide close tracking of an equity index largely by owning the companies within the index. According to Morningstar,
passive funds, those that mimic equity indexes, control $4.27 trillion in assets as of August 2019. This is a $1.36 trillion increase over the past 10 years. Others have reported the same dramatic shift of investment dollars differently. A CNBC headline from earlier this year shouted: “Passive investing automatically tracking indexes now controls nearly half the US stock market”.
With half the U.S. Stock market now in passive money, there are fewer opportunities for broker/dealers to make soft-dollar income in return for “complimentary” research. Many have reallocated their resources in such a way to have prompted an evolution in where investors receive trusted, impartial, institutional-grade research reports.

The
Evolution in Micro-Cap and Small-Cap Equity Research

 Active research is still highly relied upon by those who transact in the micro-cap and small-cap sectors. As such, top-tier research coverage is crucial for small public companies looking to expand their visibility and investor interest in their companies. With fewer research firms covering them, there may not be enough investment interest for many of the future’s life-changing innovations to take root. Tomorrow’s life-saving drug, mining discovery, medical apparatus, or storage innovation may be denied to those who would have benefited from them.

Fortunately, there has been an evolution in how institution-level research is provided. The shift has small and micro-cap companies hiring respected research companies directly to provide an unbiased evaluation of their companies. This new practice eliminates the past conflict of interest of investment analysts who may have experienced pressure to err on the side of a favorable outlook to help smooth the way to additional higher-paying services from the client. A few of the research firms providing company-sponsored research to small-cap entities have taken an additional step. They are requiring their analysts to pass FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) qualifying exams in order to become registered securities professionals. The exam(s) and ongoing continuing education required to maintain the professional registrations, ensure a high level of understanding, further promotes ethical behavior, and provides for punishment, including loss of career, if some guidelines are not adhered to.

The research firms that do require FINRA registered professionals are effectively pledging impartial presentation of the companies they are covering. This new standard in who provides research and who it is available to clearly benefits the sophisticated investor who always had access. But some firms providing company-sponsored research now make it available to all investors, of any size. This was most often not the case as sell-side broker/dealers often only allowed timely access to their buy-side customers. 

Earlier this year OTC
Markets
and IR Magazine hosted an industry conference. During one of the sessions Jim Harvey, CFA® a portfolio manager and principal of The Royce Funds, a large, respected small and micro-cap fund company, was asked where he stands on company-sponsored research.  His reply: “I’m not biased against company-sponsored research when it’s written by qualified, FINRA-licensed analysts.”  It is now widely accepted that credibility and accountability can be combined by using FINRA registered analysts at company-sponsored research boutiques.

Noble Financial Group is a research-based investment bank. Their unique research report distribution platform is Channelchek. This provides company-sponsored research at no charge to investors. Noble’s FINRA registered analysts cover; healthcare, natural resources, transportation, technology, and media.  Nico Pronk is CEO and President of Noble Financial Group While discussing the shift in providers of in-depth company research and the beneficiaries, Mr. Pronk explained: “Institutional-level research can now be more widely distributed to members of the investment community. In-depth, high-level research and analysis are being performed for small and micro-cap companies that may not have other business with our firm. We’re seeing this firsthand. We hold a conference early each year that brings investors and small innovative companies together. Our 16th annual Noblecon is drawing a lot more attention from financial professionals that include a greater percentage of sophisticated investors from independent investment advisors, large family offices, and even self-directed investors. We’re proud that our research product resonates so well with all of these groups.”

Looking Toward the New
Decade

Investing goes through regular incarnations and reinventions. The use of technology has provided an environment where passive investing is gaining in popularity. Just as other trends of investing have fallen out of favor, disruption or innovation will one day turn the tide toward another trend. Fortunately, some of the research activities that have been dropped by the sell-side broker/dealers, effectively decreasing resources to their customers, have been replaced with boutique firms or a paid-for service. It’s arguably an improved system of company-sponsored research. This evolution is growing in appreciation by both those raising capital and those investing assets.

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-controls-nearly-half-the-us-stock-market.html

 

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/201909182571/index-funds-are-the-new-kings-of-wall-street

Author : Paul S. Hoffman

Research – Onconova Therapeutics (ONTX) – What do recent deals mean for Onconova?

Friday, November 22, 2019

Onconova Therapeutics Inc. (ONTX)

What do recent deals mean for Onconova?

Onconova Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company operating in the US. It focuses on discovering and developing novel small molecule product candidates primarily to treat cancer. The company has created a library of targeted agents designed to work against cellular pathways important to cancer cells. Its product candidates are Single-agent IV rigosertib, Oral rigosertib + azacitidine, IV Briciclib, Recilisib, and ON 123300. The key product candidate Rigosertib is a small molecule which blocks cellular signaling by targeting RAS effector pathways.

Ahu Demir, Ph.D., Biotechnology Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

Licensing deal to commercialize lead drug in Canada.  Onconova inked a licensing agreement with Knight Therapeutics (TSX: GUD, Not covered) to commercialize rigosertib in Canada. Knight is a Canadian specialty pharma company that is focused on acquiring and inlicensing innovative products for the Canadian market. We think this deal provides potential future cash flows for Onconova contingent upon positive data readout from Phase 3 INSPIRE trial and obtaining Health Canada clearance to commercialize rigosertib.

Terms of the deal.  Based on the agreement, Knight gains the exclusive rights to commercialize rigosertib in Canada and has an option to expand its territory to Israel. Onconova may receive clinical, regulatory and…




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Research – Aurania Resources (ARU:CA) – Drilling at Yawi is Off to a Good Start

Friday, November 22, 2019

Aurania Resources Ltd. (ARU:CA)

Drilling at Yawi is Off to a Good Start

Aurania Resources Ltd. is a Canada-based junior mining exploration company engaged in the identification, evaluation, acquisition, and exploration of mineral property interests, with a focus on precious metals and copper. Its flagship asset, The Lost Cities-Cutucu Project, is in southeastern Ecuador in the Province of Morona-Santiago. The company also has several minor projects in Switzerland.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

First drill hole completed at Yawi. Scout drilling at the first hole at Yawi Target A has been completed and samples have been submitted to the laboratory. The second bore hole at Target A is currently being drilled. Recall that four targets have been identified at Yawi and a fifth is being mapped and soil sampled to determine whether it warrants scout drilling.

Refining targets for future drilling. Aurania’s heliborne geophysics program has been completed on the entire project area. The company’s stream sediment sampling program, which has been completed on over 50% of the Lost Cities Project, has…


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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.
 

Have Active Managers Received a Bum Rap?

Have Active Managers Received a Bum Rap?

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
story [desktop version]. This article uses third-party references to provide a
bullish, bearish, and balanced point of view; sources are listed after the
Balanced section.)

In a November 4th ChannelChek.com article titled “Taking Stock of Index Funds,” we highlighted how stock index funds and exchanged traded funds (ETFs) now hold more assets than the traditional actively managed funds, with passive funds making up 50.2% of the US stock mutual fund pie, while actively managed funds made up 49.8%. One of the key tenets from market observers in the rise of index funds and ETFs is that actively managed funds historically underperform. Only 23% of all active funds topped the average of their passive rivals over the 10-year period that ended in June 2019, according to Morningstar.

 

In a fortuitous circumstance, the most recent Financial Analysts Journal (Fourth Quarter of 2019) contains an article titled “Challenging the Conventional Wisdom on Active Management: A Review of the Past 20 Years of Academic Literature on Actively Managed Mutual Funds.” (Cremers, Fulkerson, and Riley). The authors reviewed the past 20 years since that is when Mark Carhart published a landmark study on mutual funds, with a conclusion that the data did “not support the existence of skilled or informed mutual fund portfolio managers.” Cremers, et al review of the 20 years of academic research, however, “suggests that the conventional wisdom is too negative on the value of active management.”

Following, we highlight some of the authors’ findings. (We refer readers to our November 4th article for a Bull and Bear Case on Index Funds.)

 Conditions Have Changed aka The Free
Market Works!
Competition, in the form of index funds and ETFs, has caused changes on the active management side over the past 20 years. Specifically, the average mutual fund expense ratio has declined significantly. The asset-weighted average expense ratio for actively managed equity funds fell from 1.06% in 2000 to 0.78% in 2017.

 Active Portfolio Managers Do have Skill! One of the criticisms of active managers is that few have skills in excess of costs. Recent research raises questions about this conclusion, however. Recent research has found that many active managers have significant observable skills, that those skills create real value for investors, and that those skills persist over time. For example, almost all academic papers measure the skill of an active manager as the net alpha of the fund, which is the return of the fund after fees compared with a benchmark. But the choice of the benchmark model and the quality of data available for analysis using that model have a large impact on conclusions about the net alphas of funds and, in turn, on conclusions about the skill of active managers. Several studies have considered the impact of the benchmark model chosen and highlighted the limitations of current models for evaluating the value of active management and showed that common performance measures often underestimate the value of active management.

 Timing Play a Role. Puckett and Yan (2011) found that many estimates of stock selection skill are downwardly biased because the quarterly fund holdings data used in most studies do not account for interim trading, although other researchers have come to the opposite conclusion.

 What is the Appropriate Model for
Evaluating Fund Performance?
Mutual funds are commonly evaluated using the multifactor model of Carhart (1977). But the factors used in the Carhart model may not be the appropriate set. Harvey, Liu and Zhu (2016) and Hon, Xue, and Zhang (2017) identified hundreds of potential pricing factors that could be used, and the choice of factors has a significant effect on the conclusions about fund performance.

 Impact of Constraints. Most research models assume active managers are unconstrained and able to allocate assets optimally to maximize risk-adjusted returns. In practice, however, managers operate under a number of constraints that may affect their decisions and their ability to create value for investors. Among the most notable constraint is a need to provide daily liquidity for potential redemptions and the need for regulatory compliance. Numerous researchers have demonstrated how the need for liquidity generates real costs for individual mutual funds and can negatively affect mutual funds as a whole and the overall markets. Regulatory compliance, such as frequent portfolio disclosure lowers mutual fund performance by making it easier for other investors to front run trades.

 

Conclusion

 Recent academic research presents many varied viewpoints regarding the value of active money management. What does seem to stand out from the recent research is that the old rule that active managers underperform after fees and few managers have skill in excess of costs is not quite as black and white as earlier research would indicate. Investors would be wise to look past the headlines to take a more nuanced view of the value of active money management.

Research – Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Investor Meetings Renew Confidence

Thurday, November 21, 2019

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Investor Meetings Renew Confidence

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is a marine and environmental infrastructure contractor, and the largest dredging company in the United States. Headquartered in suburban Chicago, the company provides port expansion and maintenance, coastal restoration, river dredging and environmental restoration for public and private entities worldwide. In June 2019, the Environmental & industrial (E&I) business was sold for $17.5 million in cash and the company is now pure play on the dredging market.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Tone was positive.  Recently, we hosted investor meetings with the CEO and CFO. The meetings touched on every aspect of the dredging market and focused on how restructuring and deleveraging have positioned the company to capitalize on the positive outlook and pursue growth opportunities. We walked away with renewed confidence in the macro/micro outlook.
  • Favorable dredging outlook over next three years.  Competitive pressures after the
    Panama Canal widening have driven East Coast ports to deepen, and the energy export wave is driving more work along Gulf Coast. Coastal protection and…


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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