Month: May 2019

Research – Harte-Hanks (HHS) – First quarter 2019 update

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Harte-Hanks (HHS)

Not Good, But Not Bad Either.

Harte-Hanks is a marketing services company that
provides multichannel marketing solutions as well as consulting, data
analytics, and strategic assessment. The company’s offerings focus on
business-to-business, retail, finance, and automotive segments through digital,
social, mobile, and print media offerings.      

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

  • Q1 Results Within The Zip Code. The first quarter revenues were $59.2 million versus our $57.5 million estimate. Operating cash flow, excluding one time charges, was a negative $4.7 million, in line with our $4.6 million loss estimate. 
  • Revising vendor agreements. Management indicated that it is revising vendor agreements, which we view is an important step toward returning the company to positive cash flow and to profitability. In addition, the 

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Research – Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Another solid quarter of outperformance

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)

Another Solid Quarter Navigating the Downturn.

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility.

    

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Another solid quarter of
    outperformance…    1Q2019 EBITDA of $15.4 million was above our estimate, but well below 4Q2018 EBITDA of $23.5 million. The positive variance to our estimate of $11.2 million was driven by a $2.4 million gain on hedging, higher TCE rates and available days, which more than offset higher opex and G&A expenses.
  • …but adjusting estimates to reflect current
    market outlook and higher downtime associated with the expanded scrubber
    program.     While the 1Q2019 variance was positive, we are lowering our 2019 EBITDA estimate to $75.8 million fr… 

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Research – Gray Television (GTN) – Exceeds Q1 Expectations

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Gray Television (GTN)

Why Didn’t The Stock Go Up?

Gray
Television, Inc. operates as a television broadcast company in the United
States. As of April 6, 2010, it operated 36 television stations in 30 markets, including 17 affiliated with CBS
Inc.; 10 affiliated with the National Broadcasting Company, Inc.; 8 affiliated
with the American Broadcasting Company (ABC); and 1 affiliated with FOX
Entertainment Group, Inc. (FOX).  

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Exceeds Q1 Expectations. The company exceeded our revenue and cash flow expectation by 4.7% and 8.0% respectively, but the results were clouded by one-time items. Retransmission revenue was the largest upside variance, benefiting from some true-ups and OTT platform subscriber growth.
  • Q2 Outlook Disappoints. While Q2 revenue and expense guidance is in line with our expectations, we believe that it was lower than current Street consensus. Our Q2 revenue estimate is $504 million in line with the company’s guidance range of $502 million to $512 million, but bel… 

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Research – Orion Group (ORN) –

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

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Orion Group Holdings Inc is a US-based company which provides solutions in marine construction, design and specialty services both on and off the water in the continental US, Alaska, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

…

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Research – McClatchy (MNI) –

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

The McClatchy Company (MNI)

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The McClatchy Company publishes news and information in the United States. Its publications include the Miami Herald, The Kansas City Star, The Sacramento Bee, The Charlotte Observer, The (Raleigh) News and Observer, the (Fort Worth) Star-Telegram, and The (Durham, NC) Herald-Sun. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

…





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Research – Tribune Publishing (TPCO) – First quarter better than expected

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Tribune Publishing Company (TPCO)

Closing The Valuation Gap.

Tribune Publishing Co, formerly Tronc Inc is a print and online media company that publishes various newspapers and websites, such as The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Baltimore Sun, San Diego Union-Tribune, and the Orlando Sentinel. The company creates and distribute content across its media portfolio, offering integrated marketing, media, and business services to consumers and advertisers, including digital solutions and advertising opportunities.

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

  • First quarter better than expected. Revenues of $244.5 million came in higher than our $235.4 million estimate, with better than expected print advertising. Notably, print advertising declines moderated from Q4. Cash flow (adj. EBITDA) of $21.3 million also surpassed our $18.3 million expectations. 
  • Underlying trends better than expected. Management provided Q2 and full year 2019 guidance that is better than expected. Q2 revenue guidance is $240 million to $245 million, better than our $231.5 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $20 mill…



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Research – Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Digital business flourishes

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Townsquare Media (TSQ)

Will The Company Get The Investor Respect It Deserves?

Townsquare Media Inc is an entertainment and media company offering digital marketing solutions in the United States and Canada. It owns and operates radio stations, social media properties focusing the small and mid-cap companies. Services offered to the clients include live events, local advertising, digital advertising, e-commerce offerings, few others. 

Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Q1 exceeds expectations. Revenues of $93.7 million in line with our $93 million estimate on the strength of its Digital businesses. Operating cash flow (adj. EBITDA), however, was better than our estimates at $19.5 million (versus our $17.8 million est.) and above its previous guidance of $17.5 million to $18.5 million. The results reflected the absence of its Music Festival business, which is treated as discontinued operations.  
  • Digital a big piece of the company. Its Digital business, which grew a strong 20% plus in the latest quarter, now represents approximately 33% of total company revenues. This total sets Townsquare apart from its peers that average digital revenu… 


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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research – Vectrus (VEC) – First quarter 2019 update

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Vectrus Inc. (VEC)

Can Vectrus Reach Its $2.5 Billion Revenue Goal?

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. The company generates nearly all its revenue from the United States Department of Defense. The company offerings are categorized into three types.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • 1Q19 Results. Vectrus reported above expected revenue of $325.9 million in the first quarter, but EPS of $0.62 ($0.69 adjusted) was below expectations. We had forecast $321 million and $0.77, respectively. Vectrus saw particular strength in its European and Middle Eastern
    markets, which more than offset a weaker U.S. Higher expenses were behind the
    EPS miss.
  • Backlog Remain Strong. The Company ended the quarter with $1.1 billion of funded backlog, up 60% sequentially. Book-to-bill in 1Q19 was 2.0x. Pr… 




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Research – electroCore (ECOR) – Initiation of Coverage

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

electroCore (ECOR)

Small Piece of Migraine Market Could be a Big Deal.

electrocore Inc is a commercial-stage bioelectronic medicine company with a platform for non-invasive vagus nerve stimulation therapy initially focused on neurology and rheumatology. Its product gammaCore is FDA-cleared for the acute treatment of pain associated with migraine and episodic cluster headache in adults.

 

Ahu Demir, Ph.D., Biotechnology Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Market Opportunity. Upon establishment of reimbursement coverage, we expect to see a ramp up in revenue and further adoption in the market in H219. We believe potential approval in prevention of migraine and acute migraine treatment in adolescents to be a potential value generator, and the migraine indication to be the dominant market for electroCore.
  • Protraction in Commercialization. electroCore is engaging in multiple key aspects to foster commercialization by expanding the sales force, reimbursement coverage, as well as promotional and educational programs. We believe electroCor… 





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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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News – Cell Cycle Regulators as Cancer Therapeutics

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The Importance of CDKs (Cyclin-dependent kinases)

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced point of view; sources listed in the “Balanced” section) 

Cell proliferation is a tightly regulated
process by the cell cycle machinery in normal tissues, while dysregulated
cellular proliferation and aberrant proliferation is a hallmark of cancer. Cyclin-dependent
kinases (CDKs) are critical regulatory enzymes that drive cell cycle
transitions, control cell division and proliferation. Many of the key concepts
of CDK biology were discovered over 20 years ago through the study of yeast.
In 2001, Doctor Leland H. Hartwell, R. Timothy
Hunt and Paul M. Nurse were awarded the Nobel Prize
for their discoveries of “key regulators
of the cell cycle”.

There are currently >20 members of the CDK family. The cyclin D/cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) are regulators of cell cycle and signal through cell cycle pathway involving p16, an endogenous suppressor of CDK4/6, cyclin D1, the regulatory subunit of CDK4/6, and retinoblastoma (Rb) protein, a tumor suppressor. Controlled phosphorylation and deactivation of the Rb protein by the CDK4/6 complex is crucial for the normal cell cycle progression. Unhindered activity of CDK4/6 pathway can result in alterations of cyclin-dependent kinases stimulating cell cycle pathway and cell proliferation in cancer cells. Selective CDK4/6 inhibitors “turn off” these kinases and dephosphorylation of Rb, resulting in a block of cell-cycle progression preventing the proliferation of cancer cells. 

Figure 1. Immune Mechanism in
Response to CDK4/6 Inhibitors

Source: AACR 2018

Research – Dyadic (DYAI) – Another licensing agreement

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Dyadic International (DYAI)

What Does Another Licensing Agreement Mean?

Dyadic International Inc. is a biotechnology company developing a proprietary C1 expression platform to express and manufacture biologic products. The C1 technology is part of a fungi expression system, which utilizes inexpensive substrates yielding a high level of production. Dyadic is currently improving and optimizing the production of biological products in a C1 expression system.

Ahu Demir, Ph.D., Biotechnology Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

  • Second Sub-licensing Deal. Following a sub-licensing deal with Luina Bio announced on April 29, the company announced a second sub-licensing agreement with biotech company Alphazyme. Alphazyme produces molecular biology enzymes for the molecular tool industry including, custom DNA and RNA molecules, genomic medicines and genetic testing. Dyadic’s C1 technology platform meets Alphazyme’s requirements for high quality, low cost production of enzymes on an industrial scale.
  • Terms of the Deal. Dyadic will be granted an equity stake in Alphazyme,
    and is entitled to receive milestone payments and royalties upon the
    commercialization of C1 expressed Alphaz…


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Research – Entravision (EVC) – Update on full year 2018 results

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Entravision Communications (EVC)

Oh, What A Relief It Is.

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. 


Michael Kupinski, DOR, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating. 

  • In line Q4. Fourth quarter cash flow of $20.7 million was in line with our $21.4 million estimate, on lighter than expected revenues at $82.1 million (versus our $87.1 million estimate). The $5 million revenue variance was all from the company’s Digital media business and reflected a management decision to focus on profitable revenue growth. 
  • No material accounting issues. The company explains away the late quarterly filing and the non material nature of the new auditors findings. The company appears wil… 


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Research – KeyW (KEYW) – First quarter 2019 results

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

KeyW Holding Corporation (KEYW)

Does First Quarter Miss Matter?

KEYW Holding is a provider of mission-critical cybersecurity, cybersuperiority, and geospatial intelligence solutions to U.S. government defense, intelligence, and national security agencies. Its solution includes collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination of intelligence information in cyberspace and geospace domains. 



Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • 1Q19 Results. KeyW reported revenue of $113.8 million, adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 million, and a GAAP net loss of $0.08 per share. We were at $122 million, $10.4 million, and a net loss of $0.03 per share, respectively. Revenues were anticipated to decline due to the ending of the flight services contract but a push out of certain product revenue caused the miss. Notably, these product revenues are expected to be captured in the second and third quarters.
  • Business Development. First quarter awards were $87 million, with the bulk, 79%, from new business and base growth. Quarter-end backlog was flat at $1.1 billion. Trailing twelve month win rate remained relatively unchanged at 48%. The Company continues to expect several of the $100 million opportunities to be awarded over the next several quarters…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
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